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The latest economic figures are some of the best of President Biden’s tenure so far. It appears increasingly likely that the United States has managed to tame high inflation without causing a recession. Jim Tankersley, who covers economic policy for The Times, discusses the encouraging outlook and speculates about why the positive data hasn’t translated into a bump in President Biden’s popularity.

Persons: Biden’s, Jim Tankersley Organizations: The Times Locations: United States

Pakistan paid for its first Russian crude cargo in Chinese yuan. "How will it pay other lenders and how will it finance trade with China if it uses the low yuan reserves to pay for Russian oil?" However, Urals quality is a deterrent, as Pakistan's refineries cannot get as much gasoline and diesel out of Urals crude as they produce from Saudi and UAE crudes. Kpler's Katona expects Pakistan's liquidity issues and technical challenges to weigh on its appetite for Russian crude. "Russian imports into Pakistan will not grow into anything bigger than one cargo per month," he said.

Persons: Shahbaz Ashraf, Aadil Nakhoda, Nakhoda, Viktor Katona, Zahid Mir, Mir, PRL, Kpler's Katona, Ariba Shahid, Charlotte Greenfield, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Pakistan, United, FRIM Ventures, Karachi's Institute of Business Administration, Saudi, Pakistan Refinery Ltd, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Islamabad, Moscow, China, PORT, Oman, Saudi Arab, Saudi, UAE, Karachi, Sudarshan, Singapore

THE REVIEWUnder the terms of the $44 billion program agreed in 2022, the funds are released in tranches based on regular reviews of steps Argentina takes to shore up its economy. The IMF did not respond to a request for comment on the likelihood of a board meeting soon to discuss the Argentina program. Argentina made the last IMF payment due end-June partially with its holdings of IMF special-drawing rights (SDRs), but analysts calculated that this has wiped out the country's $1.65 billion in IMF reserve assets. Argentina used $1.1 billion in yuan from a recently extended and expanded swap line with China to complete the June payment to the IMF. Reuters GraphicsFALLING INTO ARREARSMissing payments would automatically put Argentina in default with the IMF because there is no grace period with the multilateral lender.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sergio Massa, Gordian Kemen, Kemen, Gross, Jorgelina, Rosario, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Standard Chartered Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Argentina, Buenos Aires, Beijing, China

If it cannot secure fresh funds before an approaching deadline, Argentina risks defaulting on repayments to the IMF. Analysts say the central aim of these economic adjustments is to signal to the IMF that Buenos Aires is committed to the program. The left-wing administration has been locked in negotiations with the IMF for months over whether to front-load tranches of the $44 billion program. Both parties said on Sunday that an agreement on the fifth IMF review was close, but not yet finalized. Reporting by Lucinda Elliott in Montevideo, Anna-Catherine Brigida in Buenos Aires, Rodrigo Campos in New York.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Eyeing, Marina dal, EcoGo, Alejo Czerwonko, Yeyati, Lucinda Elliott, Catherine Brigida, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina de, Karin Strohecker, Catherine Evans Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Economy, Peronist, IMF, Reuters, Emerging, UBS, Analysts, Thomson Locations: BUENOS AIRES, Buenos Aires, Argentina, refinance, Washington, Beijing, Montevideo, Anna, New York, Jorgelina de Rosario, London

KARACHI, Pakistan, July 20 (Reuters) - Fuel pump operators across Pakistan are to hold a nationwide strike on July 22 in a bid to secure larger margins amid an inflation crisis, the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association said on Thursday. "We will shut down all petrol pumps across Pakistan on July 22, 6 p.m.," said the association, which says it has more than 10,000 members. In a statement it said interest rates and inflation have hit operators' businesses and called for the dealership margin to be increased. "Around 8,000-9,000 (operators) ... represented by us, will be shut on July 22," Abdul Sami Khan, chairman of the association, told Reuters. Reporting by Ariba Shahid in Karachi; Editing by Conor HumphriesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Abdul Sami Khan, Ariba Shahid, Conor Humphries Organizations: Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Karachi

Rising tensions between Washington and President Nayib Bukele's government, dwindling prospects of a financing deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the fallout from bitcoin becoming legal tender against a wider difficult macro backdrop had seen El Salvador bonds drop to a quarter of face value last July. "In the summer of 2022, El Salvador bond prices were divorced from fundamentals," said Aaron Stern, managing partner and chief investment officer at Converium Capital in Toronto, who has been holding the country's bonds since last year. "The market was concerned about the administration's willingness to pay," he said, but even now El Salvador offers attractive value when compared to a number of better priced emerging market sovereigns. These were the best performing among sovereign bonds in the first half of the year, with total returns near 60%. "In a year where carry is the main driver of total returns, investors are going to be reticent to take profits too early," said BNP Paribas' Nathalie Marshik, a managing director for Latin America fixed income.

Persons: Nayib Bukele's, buybacks, Aaron Stern, Alejandro Werner, Bukele, there's, Shamaila Khan, Nathalie Marshik, Marshik, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker, William Maclean Organizations: YORK, Central, International Monetary Fund, El, IMF, Converium Capital, Reuters, Emerging Markets, Asia Pacific, UBS Asset Management, Reuters Graphics JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: El Salvador, Central American, Washington, Toronto, it's, America

"We first need to see Zambia's updated macroeconomic package, which is in part why we have to get restricted," one of the sources said. There will be a restriction period of two weeks, with the option to extend it if both sides agree, two sources added. Amia Capital, Amundi, BlueBay Asset Management, Farallon Capital Management, Greylock Capital and T. Rowe Price comprise the steering committee. Besides net present value (NPV) reductions, talks will focus on how to incorporate the impact of a potential improvement of Zambia's debt carrying capacity, or its ability to handle debt payments. Including in the overhaul a mechanism that would allow for higher payments through coupon payments, debt maturities or a combination of both if Zambia's debt capacity improves was "sacrosanct", one of the sources said.

Persons: Weil, Rowe Price, Jorgelina, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker Organizations: Paris Club, Newstate Partners, BlueBay Asset Management, Farallon Capital Management, Greylock, Monetary Fund, Bank, IMF, World Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Zambia, U.S, Amia, Rosario, London, New York, Lincoln

[1/3] Stock brokers monitor new on television screen at a booth, during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, in Karachi, Pakistan July 3, 2023. REUTERS/Akhtar SoomroKARACHI, July 3 (Reuters) - Pakistan's benchmark share index scored its biggest single-day jump in 15 years on Monday, gaining 5.9% on the first trading session after the country secured a last-gasp funding deal from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The KSE 100 index (.KSE) closed up 2,442.06 points at 43,894.7, marking its biggest percentage gain since June 24, 2008, when it rose 8.6%, as per Refinitiv data. "Today's gain in the benchmark KSE 100 Index will likely to be highest in the history of Pakistan Stock exchange," it said. Several automakers including Pakistan Suzuki Motor Co (PKSU.PSX) had announced prolonged plant closures in 2023, citing import restrictions.

Persons: Akhtar Soomro, Shehbaz Sharif, Muhammad Iqbal Jawaid, Arif Habib, HCAR, Asif Shahzad, Swati Bhat, Lincoln, David Holmes Organizations: Pakistan Stock Exchange, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Topline Securities, Pakistan Stock, Pakistan, U.S ., Pakistan Suzuki Motor, Honda, Pakistan Suzuki, Indus, Toyota, Auto, Arif, Arif Habib Ltd, Thomson Locations: Karachi, Pakistan, Akhtar Soomro KARACHI

It is not the end of our relationship with the IMF though, as the SBA is a short-term bridging operation. GARETH LEATHER, SENIOR ASIA ECONOMIST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON"The agreement of a loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. There is a strong risk that Pakistan reneges on the deal once the immediate crisis has passed. Our target shall be that the next IMF programme should be the last one and it would be a great opportunity to correct our fiscal account once and for all." "Things would have been much better if successive governments would have invested in completing the IMF programme.

Persons: MURTAZA SYED, GARETH, Shehbaz Sharif, ABDUL ALEEM, SHERANI, SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, MAHA RAHMAN, ZAFAR MASUD, MUSTAFA PASHA, SHAHID HABIB, ARIF HABIB, ZULQARNAIN, MOHAMMED SOHAIL, AHFAZ MUSTAFA, ISMAIL IQBAL, SAJID AMIN JAVED, Ariba Shahid, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Monetary Fund, South, IMF, BANK OF PAKISTAN, SBA, State Bank, EFF, Capital, UL HAQ, OF PUNJAB, Pakistan, ARIF, Thomson Locations: Pakistan, ASIA, KARACHI, ISLAMABAD, LAHORE, PAKISTAN

Islamabad was racing against time to unlock $1.1 billion under the IMF's ninth review of a $6.5-billion Extended Fund Facility agreed upon in 2019. The Pakistan government was expecting around $2.5 billion from the IMF, Reuters has reported. PROCESSESPakistan earlier cleared eight of the 11 listed programme reviews, with the ninth review pending since November last year. HOLE IN FINANCESThe government has earmarked $2.5 billion in external receipts from the IMF in its federal budget for FY24. Pakistan needs upwards of $22 billion to service external debt, make interest payments, and finance its current account for FY24.

Persons: Shehbaz Sharif, Ariba Shahid, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, IMF’s, Reuters, Pakistan, CCC, United, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Islamabad, PAKISTAN, Caa3, Fitch, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China, Karachi

Islamabad is racing against time to unlock $1.1 billion under the lender's ninth review of a $6.5-billion Extended Fund Facility agreed in 2019. -The ninth review is to release a tranche of $1.1 billion, leaving about $1.4 billion on the table in unlocked funds. It is unclear if an IMF agreement would release the entire amount. -National elections are due by November this year and the government has said the decision to enter a new IMF programme will be a decision for the incoming administration. -Hopes of a last-minute bailout rose following meetings between Sharif and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Paris this month, followed by marathon meetings between IMF staff and finance ministry officials.

Persons: Shehbaz Sharif, Kristalina Georgieva, Ariba Shahid, Conor Humphries Organizations: Pakistani, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Pakistan, CCC, United, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Islamabad, Caa3, Fitch, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, China, Sharif, Paris, Karachi

BUENOS AIRES/NEW YORK, June 18 (Reuters) - Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have a $44 billion dilemma, with the two sides set to meet for crunch talks to revamp the country's huge, wobbling debt deal, key to avoiding default on billions in looming debt payments. Economy Minister Sergio Massa is expected in Washington as early as this week to try to unlock talks to accelerate IMF disbursements and ease economic targets attached to the deal, with investors and traders watching closely. "The fund knows that Argentina is a problem, it is its main debtor, but it seems to me that the negotiation has stagnated. Reuters Graphics'DAMAGE CONTROL'The government is hoping to bring forward over $10 billion in IMF disbursements scheduled for this year, though is reluctant to agree to tough austerity measures with an eye on October general elections where it faces likely defeat. "Investors are paying real attention to signs from the IMF negotiations," said economist Gustavo Ber.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Ricardo Delgado, Massa, Hugo Godoy, Gustavo Ber, Walter Bianchi, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Daniel Wallis Organizations: BUENOS AIRES, International Monetary Fund, Economy, IMF, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Institute of International Finance, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: BUENOS, Argentina, Washington, Argentine, Buenos Aires, China

June 15 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday expressed dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s recently presented budget, a blow for the cash-strapped country which has only two weeks left until its bailout programme expires. However, the draft FY24 Budget misses an opportunity to broaden the tax base in a more progressive way," Esther Perez Ruiz, the IMF's resident representative for Pakistan, said in a text message to Reuters. "The new tax amnesty runs against program’s conditionality and governance agenda and creates a damaging precedent," added Perez Ruiz. She said that measures to address the energy sector’s liquidity pressures could be included alongside the broader budget strategy. Added Perez Ruiz: "The IMF team stands ready to work with the government in refining this Budget ahead of its passage," implying the country still has a chance to unlock its ninth IMF board review prior to the end of the EFF programme.

Persons: Pakistan’s, Esther Perez Ruiz, program’s, Perez Ruiz, Bharat Govind Gautam, Jonathan Oatis, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, Fund, FX, Staff, Reuters, EFF, Thomson Locations: Pakistan, Bengaluru, Shahid, Karachi

KARACHI, June 14 (Reuters) - Shell Pakistan (SHEL.PSX) said on Wednesday that its parent company, Shell (SHEL.L) unit Shell Petroleum Company, would be exiting Pakistan with the sale of its 77% shareholding in the in the local business. The move came after Shell Pakistan (SPL) suffered losses in 2022 due to exchange rates, the devaluation of the Pakistani rupee, and overdue receivables, and as the country faces a financial crisis and economic slowdown. "To support its intention to high-grade and simplify its portfolio, Shell Petroleum Company Ltd... has initiated a sales process to sell its 77.42% shareholding in Shell Pakistan Ltd," a spokesperson for Shell Pakistan said in an email to Reuters. That includes "all of SPL’s Downstream businesses and SPL’s 26% ownership of Pak-Arab Pipeline Company Ltd (PAPCO)," the spokesperson added. REUTERS/Morteza Nikoubazl/File PhotoIt said in the notice that Shell Petroleum Company had notified its board of directors of its intention to sell the holding in a meeting on June 14.

Persons: Morteza, Shell, Wael Sawan, Ariba Shahid, Sakshi Dayal, Gibran Peshimam, David Evans, Jan Harvey, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Shell Pakistan, Shell, Shell Petroleum Company, Shell Petroleum Company Ltd, Shell Pakistan Ltd, Reuters, Arab Pipeline Company, Pakistan Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Nowshera, Pakistan's, Khyber, Pakhtunkhwa Province, Bukom, Jurong, Singapore

Discounted crude offers respite as Pakistan faces an acute balance of payments crisis, risking a default on its debt obligations. The first cargo of discounted Russian crude oil arranged under a new deal struck between Islamabad and Moscow earlier this year arrived in Karachi on Sunday. Pakistan's Refinery Limited (PRL) will initially refine the Russian crude, the minister said. Malik on Monday played down concerns around the financial viability and concerns about the ability of local refineries to process Russian crude given the South Asian country's historical importation of Middle Eastern petroleum products. "No adjustments (were) needed at the refinery to refine the Russian crude," the minister told Reuters.

Persons: Florence Lo, Malik Says, Musadik Malik, Pakistan's, Malik, Ariba Shahid, Asif Shahzad, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Gibran, Philippa Fletcher, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, ., Karachi . Petroleum, Pakistan, Moscow, Pakistan's Refinery, Monday, Reuters, Energy, United, United Arab Emirates, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Islamabad, ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Karachi, Russia, India, China, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, United Arab

ISLAMABAD, June 10 (Reuters) - Pakistan is working on the possibility of restructuring its bilateral debt regardless of whether it successfully completes its IMF review, the country's finance minister said on Saturday, but reiterated it would not approach Paris club nation creditors or seek haircuts. The country is grappling with record inflation, fiscal imbalances and critical levels of reserves that cover barely a month worth of imports. The fiscal deficit for the following fiscal year was projected at 6.54% of GDP, according to the budget. Dar said on Saturday there was no more room in the budget to reduce the fiscal deficit target by any further. The government has received commitments of only $4 billion, mainly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Persons: Ishaq Dar, Dar, Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam, Shahid, Charlotte Greenfield, Michael Perry, William Mallard, Frances Kerry Organizations: IMF, Pakistan's IMF, United, United Arab Emirates, Thomson Locations: ISLAMABAD, Pakistan, Paris, Pakistan's, China, Saudi Arabia, United Arab

Experts have mixed reactions on whether the budget will meet IMF requirements and the impact on the economy. The ‘No new Taxes on Industry’ claim is belied by increase in super tax and that too in not a fully progressive way. Will retailers and the agri sectors that together contribute 40% contribute more than 2% as a result of the budget? SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT FRIM VENTURES“It is surely not a budget that the IMF would approve of. "The regional energy price budget, which has built in cross subsidies, general collection and distribution losses is something the export industry cannot sustain."

Persons: GHIAS KHAN, EHSAN MALIK, SHAHID HABIB, ARIF HABIB, ZULQARNAIN, ABDUL ALEEM, IRFAN IQBAL SHEIKH, MUSTAFA PASHA, SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, they've, There's, ” FAHAD RAUF, ISMAIL IQBAL, GOHAR EJAZ, Ariba Shahid, Jonathan Oatis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, Pakistan, Reuters, FX, ENGRO CORP, OF, PAKISTAN BUSINESS, Industry, PAKISTAN, Company, FEDERATION OF PAKISTAN, OF COMMERCE, PKR, IN, MILLS ASSOCIATION, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, PAKISTAN, Karachi

KARACHI, Pakistan, June 2 (Reuters) - Pakistan has passed a special order to allow barter trade with Afghanistan, Iran and Russia for certain goods, including petroleum and natural gas, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday. The government order, called the Business-to-business (B2B) Barter Trade Mechanism 2023 and dated June 1, lists goods that can be bartered. Sajid Amin, deputy director of the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, said Pakistan could gain particularly from oil and energy imports from Russia and Iran without adding to dollar demand. "While it may not solve currency smuggling, particularly at the Afghanistan border, it can discourage smuggling of goods from Iran, such as diesel, and Afghanistan which is hurting the economy," Amin added. In May, the Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association complained that up to 35% of the diesel sold in Pakistan had been smuggled from Iran.

Persons: Sajid Amin, Amin, Pakistan's, Musadik Malik, Malik, Ariba Shahid, Asif Shahzad, Simon Cameron, Moore, David Holmes Organizations: Ministry of Commerce, State, Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Reuters, Pakistan Petroleum Dealers Association, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Russia

NEW YORK/LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - A bill backed by debt justice campaigners and civil society groups advocating on behalf of economically distressed countries could alter past and future sovereign debt restructurings covered by New York state law - and Wall Street is watching. Senate Bill S4747, the NY Taxpayer and International Debt Crises Protection Act, "relates to New York state's support of international debt relief initiatives for certain developing countries." The initiative has so far failed to accelerate debt relief talks, while private creditors are not even formally included in this initiative. It would "bring badly needed improvements to the framework for resolving unsustainable sovereign debt burdens," according to Nobel Prize-winning U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz. If this bill passes, "I would recommend issuers not go through New York law, (but) through London or any other jurisdiction," said Rodrigo Olivares-Caminal, professor of banking and finance law at Queen Mary University of London.

Persons: Bill S4747, Alexander Flood, Patricia Fahy, Kathy Hochul, Joseph Stiglitz, Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, THE BILL, Rodrigo Olivares, Caminal, Rodrigo Campos, Jorgelina, Karin Strohecker, Aurora Ellis Organizations: NY Taxpayer, Senate, Institute of International Finance, Paris Club, China, WHO, Economic, Initiative, Boston, Global, Policy, THE, Queen Mary University of London, Thomson Locations: New York, United States, Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Zambia, Rishikesh, London, Paris, Brazil, Argentina, Rosario

☆ Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a 'Soft Landing'? - The New York Times
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +22 min

Will The U.S. Economy Pull Off a ‘Soft Landing’? The soft, the hard and the grayThere isn’t any standard definition of an economic soft landing. But what’s an acceptable inflation rate? On the other side, policymakers used to believe that an unemployment rate below 4 percent was basically unattainable without runaway inflation. Unless we have a really, really hard landing, the overall story of the postpandemic economy will be one of remarkable resilience.

"Global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly," said the IIF in its quarterly Global Debt Monitor. The report partly focused on the effects of last year's rapid rise in rates in some bank balance sheets. The IIF voiced its concern that tighter lending practices among smaller banks would hurt some businesses and households harder. "Shadow banks now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment funds and private debt markets." "With the interest rate differential between EMs and mature markets diminishing, EM local currency debt is less appealing for foreign investors," the IIF said.

"Global debt is now $45 trillion higher than its pre-pandemic level and is expected to continue increasing rapidly," said the IIF in its quarterly Global Debt Monitor. The report partly focused on the effects of last year's rapid rise in rates in some bank balance sheets. "Shadow banks now account for more than 14% of financial markets, with the majority of growth stemming from a rapid expansion of U.S. investment funds and private debt markets." But for others access to markets has been harder or non-existent on either tighter spreads as rates rose in developed markets or fast-rising borrowing costs. "With the interest rate differential between EMs and mature markets diminishing, EM local currency debt is less appealing for foreign investors," the IIF said.

Here are some key facts about Pakistan's military courts, according to lawyers Reuters spoke to:- Pakistan's Army Act of 1952 established military courts primarily to try members of the military or enemies of the state. - Civilians accused of offences such as waging war against the armed forces or law enforcement agencies, or attacking military installations or inciting mutiny, can be tried at military courts. - Military courts operate under a separate system from the civilian legal system and are run by military officers. The judges are also military personnel and cases are tried at military installations. - Military courts were most recently used to try Islamist militants waging an insurgency in Pakistan.

KARACHI, Pakistan, May 13 (Reuters) - Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif on Saturday gave authorities 72 hours to identify and arrest all those involved in violent acts after former Prime Minister Imran Khan's arrest this week sparked deadly unrest. Khan departed court premises late Friday night and headed towards his hometown Lahore amid high security, after a court granted him bail. Following Sharif's announcement, Punjab's government released pictures of unidentified protesters involved in an attack on a military official's residence on Wednesday. Khan, 70, is a cricket star-turned-politician who was ousted as prime minister in April 2022 in a parliamentary no-confidence vote and Pakistan's most popular leader according to opinion polls. Facebook, YouTube and Twitter were inaccessible in Pakistan on Saturday, Reuters journalists said, after access was briefly restored late on Friday.

Violent clashes between supporters of Imran Khan and police broke out across the country after Pakistan's anti-corruption agency arrested the former prime minister on Tuesday. Pakistan's rupee has lost nearly 50% over the past 12 months. JPMorgan analyst Milo Gunasinghe said little relief from political uncertainty was in sight while the IMF programme remained stalled. "It is usually up to the country to present a credible plan of policies and financing that, in the face of political uncertainty, will credibly address the members’ balance of payment problems." The armed forces remain Pakistan's most powerful institution, having ruled directly for close to half the country's 75-year history through three coups.

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