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☆ The lowest salary Americans will accept at a new job reached a record high
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Jennifer Liu | In Jljenniferliu | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

More people are looking for a new job, and they have high salary expectations. The lowest average pay people would be willing to accept a new job reached $81,822 as of March, a new series high since 2014. That's according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest consumer expectations survey, which is fielded every four months. But to live comfortably by traditional budgeting advice, the average person needs to earn upwards of $89,000 — closer to the latest data on salary expectations — according to a recent analysis from SmartAsset. And despite a hiring slowdown, ZipRecruiter data shows more companies are actively recruiting to hire for open roles, and they're also extending more counteroffers to keep employees from quitting.

Persons: Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Labor Department

☆ With inflation stalling, the long-predicted storm clouds in the economy may actually be forming
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Jamie Dimon warned two years ago that storm clouds and a hurricane were brewing in the US economy. On top of that, the unemployment rate has stayed below 4% for more than two years despite 11 rate hikes intended to slow the economy in an effort to curb decades-high inflation. But potentially persistent inflation isn’t the only red flag in the economy right now. Small-business owners haven’t felt this bad about the economy in over a decadeAlthough the economy is booming by many measures, including last month’s blowout jobs report, small business owners aren’t feeling gung-ho about it. That’s significant because that cohort is experiencing an even lower unemployment rate than the nation overall.

Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Bowman, ” Bowman, haven’t, Holly Wade, Bill Dunkelberg, aren’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, FactSet, National Federation of Independent, York Locations: New York

☆ This week provided a reminder that inflation isn't going away anytime soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

From consumer and wholesale prices to longer-term public expectations, reports this week served up multiple reminders this week that inflation isn't going away anytime soon. Data across the board showed pressures increasing at a faster-than-expected pace, causing concern that inflation could be more durable than policymakers had anticipated. The bad news began Monday when a New York Federal Reserve survey showed the consumer expectations over the longer term had accelerated in February. It continued Tuesday with news that consumer prices rose 3.2% from a year ago, and then culminated Thursday with a release indicating that pipeline pressures at the wholesale level also are heating up. The latest jolt on inflation came Thursday when the Labor Department reported that the producer price index, a forward-looking measure of pipeline inflation at the wholesale level, showed a 0.6% increase in February.

Persons: Steven Blitz, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Labor Department, department's Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ Long-term inflation expectations rise, spelling possible trouble for the Fed, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

According to a report by the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose 0.8% in July beating expectations of 0.7%. At the three-year range, expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%, while the five-year outlook jumped even more, up 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%. All three are well ahead of the Fed's 2% goal for 12-month inflation, indicating the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer. Economists and policymakers consider expectations as a key factor in viewing the path of inflation, so the Survey of Consumer Expectations for February could be bad news. "We remain committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and to keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored."

Persons: Justin Sullivan, Jerome Powell Organizations: Costco, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, New York Federal Reserve, Capitol Locations: Novato , California

☆ A trusted indicator is fueling recession warnings from Jeremy Grantham and other gurus. What you should know about the Leading Economic Index.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.

Persons: —, Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American

Consumers remained largely sanguine about the economy and inflation in February, according to the latest sentiment survey from the University of Michigan released Friday. The February index rose 0.6 points to 79.6 after posting strong gains in the prior two months. The index of consumer expectations, a forecast of how Americans see the economy in the coming months, is now up 21.6% from a year ago. Expectations for inflation did tick up slightly, with the 12-month level now at 3%, up from 2.9% in January. “The upside surprise in the January PPI report echoes the month’s CPI report,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, “ Consumers, Hsu, Jerome Powell’s, Ken Tjonasam, Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: University of Michigan, “, PPI, Global, CPI, Comerica Bank, “ Labor

☆ Why Singapore is quickly becoming the choice location for firms to support global carbon markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Sponsor Post | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Carbon credits continue to play an important role in the global transition towards net zero. As an innovative financing mechanism, carbon credits allow corporates to mobilize capital to support emission-reduction projects. The decision to anchor CAD Trust in Singapore stems from acknowledging that transparency and governance are rooted in its DNA. Why Singapore is a prime location for firms to support global carbon marketsSingapore has successfully attracted more than 100 carbon market and services players to establish the city-state as their home base in Southeast Asia. Singapore's expertise in carbon services and its trailblazing move implementing Southeast Asia's first carbon tax in 2019, also appealed to Calyx Global.

Persons: — Dinesh Babu, Grace Fu, Duncan van Bergen, Van Bergen, — Duncan van Bergen Organizations: Reuters, Singapore, for Nature, National University of Singapore, Data Trust, Government of, Emissions Trading Association, Singapore's, Sustainability, Meta, Trust, Insider Studios, Singapore Economic Development Board Locations: Dubai, Singapore, Government of Singapore, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Oceania, Africa, Paris, Bhutan, COP28, Asia

☆ Oil prices edge up on Middle East risk
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday on fears Middle East tensions could disrupt supply, but uncertainty about the pace of potential U.S. interest rate cuts and the ensuing impact on fuel demand capped gains. Oil prices were near flat in Monday's trade, after gaining 6% last week. A move by the U.S. to tighten or step up enforcement of sanctions on Iran would impact oil market supplies. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is also scheduled to release its monthly oil market report on Tuesday. OPEC and its allies including Russia, known as OPEC+, will decide in March whether to extend voluntary oil production cuts in place for the first quarter.

Persons: Houthis Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, New York Fed, Consumer, Reuters, of, Petroleum, OPEC, ING Locations: Huntington, Pier, Huntington Beach, Iran, Red, United States, Britain, Israel, U.S, Iraq, Russia, OPEC, Saudi Arabia

☆ Inflation comes in hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The consumer price index increased 3.1% year over year in January, higher than the forecast of 2.9%. The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in January. January’s year-over-year rise in the CPI was expected to be 2.9%, which would have been a massive slowdown from December’s 3.4%. CPI increased by 0.3% month over month in January. Additionally, New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations data shows the one-year ahead median expected inflation rate had largely been cooling but stayed at 3.0% in January.

Persons: That's, —, That’s, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, University of Michigan, Consumers, , New York Fed Survey, Consumer Locations: January’s, ,

☆ Dollar nears 150 yen ahead of US inflation test; bitcoin buoyant
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar flirted with the psychological threshold of 150 yen on Tuesday and held broadly steady ahead of a key reading on U.S. inflation due later in the day, while bitcoin hovered around the $50,000 mark for a second day running. The greenback last bought 149.39 yen, edging higher toward the closely-watched 150 level that analysts said would likely trigger further jawboning from Japanese officials in an attempt to support the currency. The projected rise in inflation three years from now dropped to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2020, from December's 2.6%. Analysts said the latest boost to bitcoin comes ahead of its halving event, which will cut the reward for successfully mining a bitcoin block in half. The expectation of rate cuts certainly helps, but it doesn't explain what's really set fire to bitcoin over the past four, five sessions," said IG's Sycamore.

Persons: pare, that's, Tony Sycamore, It's, Kyle Rodda Organizations: greenback, Bank of, IG, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S ., New Zealand, U.S, bitcoin Locations: Asia, China, Hong Kong, Bank of Japan, U.S, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, December's, Europe

Where does the economy go from here? Consumers are feeling better, expecting that the economy will do well and inflation will subside in the coming 12 months. While the economy ended last year on a strong note, the expectation was that it would cool down as the calendar turned to 2024. Last week, the International Monetary Fund boosted its projection for global growth to 3.1% from its October estimate of 2.9%, citing “greater-than-expected resilience” in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast has the U.S economy growing at a 4.2% clip in the first quarter.

Persons: ”, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Powell, Lightcast, Rachel Sederberg, “, That’s Organizations: Federal, Labor Department, ” Comerica Bank, Fed, CBS, International Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Santander Bank, ” Locations: U.S, ” Santander

☆ Instacart quietly deletes its unsettling AI-generated food pics
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Jake Swearingen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Instacart confirmed on Sunday it was using AI-generated imagery and recipes. The AI images featured physically impossible compositions, unnatural shadows, and strangely blended textures. Other recipes discovered by Reddit users, meanwhile, had the AI-generated images replaced with what appears to be stock photography. Some AI-generated imagery was still live on Instacart's site as of Wednesday. A startup is using text-to-photo technology to create AI imagery based just on menu descriptions to help restaurants build out online menus without paying for photography.

Persons: Instacart, —, Fry, Instacart Instacart Organizations: Service, Mac

☆ Instacart is using AI art. It's incredibly unappetizing.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-28 | by ( Jake Swearingen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

In May 2023, Instacart announced it was partnering with OpenAI to create an "Ask Instacart" AI model that would allow users to ask Instacart questions about what to make for dinner. In that press release, it did not disclose that it would also be adding AI recipes to the site too. AdvertisementMultiple companies have been accused of or admitted to using generative AI imagery in the past year. Reuters reported that large advertising agencies are using generative AI art in advertisements. Wizards of the Coast, a gaming company, apologized after it was caught using generative AI in some advertisements.

Persons: Fry, Instacart, OpenAI Organizations: Service, Business, Reuters

☆ Premarket stocks: Why Wall Street should worry about retail
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the US economy, so a recession is nearly impossible as long as consumer spending is growing. Wednesday’s report is expected to be a good one — economists polled by FactSet expect that a strong holiday shopping season boosted consumer spending by 0.4% in December from the month prior. But new data from the New York Federal Reserve on Tuesday has soured the mood on Wall Street. The outlook for consumer spending doesn’t look so bright, either. The trend marked the deepening of a demographic challenge set to have significant implications on the world’s second largest economy, report my colleagues Laura He and Simone McCarthy.

Persons: Alicia Wallace, shutdowns, It’s, Brian Moynihan, ”, CNN’s Richard Quest, they’ve, Bob Iger, Samantha Delouya, Walt Disney, Iger’s, Disney, Laura, Simone McCarthy Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, FactSet, New York Federal Reserve, Consumer, Hamas, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Economic, Disney, National Bureau of Statistics, Communist, NBS Locations: New York, Suez, Iranian, Asia, Europe, United States, Drewry, Davos, Switzerland, China, Communist China

☆ Americans are pulling back on their spending, but debt remains top of mind
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The latest Survey of Consumer Expectations Household Spending Survey, which is released every four months, also showed that households expect to spend less in the year ahead. The most recent reading is the lowest since December 2020 and is trending closer to the pre-pandemic reading of 2.4%. Survey respondents said they expected to spend less on everyday essential spending. The spending has kept the economy churning, but it’s also potentially coming at a cost: Americans have relied heavily on debt to make their purchases. As of December 2023, respondents said they’d allocate 38.4% of the unexpected income gain toward paying down debt.

Persons: it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Consumer Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

☆ Mortgage rate decline pulls buyers back into the housing market
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

watch nowA sharp drop in mortgage interest rates in December may have kickstarted this year's spring housing market early. Optimism about mortgage rates increased sharply in December, according to a monthly consumer survey by Fannie Mae. "This significant shift in consumer expectations comes on the heels of the recent bond market rally," said Palim. "Notably, homeowners and higher-income groups reported greater rate optimism than renters." The average rate on the 30-year fixed has been on a wild ride since the start of the Covid pandemic.

Persons: Fannie Mae, Mark Palim, Ryan Paredes, Ariadna Paredes, Ryan Ratliff, Joe Raedle, Paul Legere Organizations: Max Advance Realty, Getty, . Washington , D.C Locations: Cutler Bay , Florida, . Washington ,

☆ US demand for new credit down in 2023, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Demand for new credit in the U.S. over the last year has declined and will likely stay soft in the future, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve. But even as the overall application rate for new credit declined among those surveyed, interest in applying for more credit card debt rose. The survey said that reading had hit 29% as of October and was 26% for 2023, compared to a 27.2% credit card application rate in 2019. The report noted that expected decline in applications for credit extended to new credit cards, auto loans, mortgages and home refinancing.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumer, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S

☆ Why conversation is at the heart of an excellent customer experience
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Sponsor Post | Created Insider Studios With Nice | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

NICE Enlighten, a purpose-built AI for customer experience, has operations, agents, and customers covered across the end-to-end customer journeyAI chatbots that understand and respond to customer emotions can be used to personalize the customer experience and provide expedited resolutions. Conversation as a means of delivering exceptional customer experience (CX) has reached a tipping point in today's modern business landscape. This mismatch between consumer expectations and business capabilities is a significant opportunity for generative AI to improve the customer experience. The future of conversational customer experienceAlthough AI has the potential to revolutionize the customer experience, it is not without its drawbacks. These chatbots can be used to personalize the customer experience and provide expedited resolutions to customer problems.

Persons: Elizabeth Tobey, Tobey Organizations: NICE, CX, Insider Studios

☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

Consumer prices held stable in October, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.7% a month ago as energy prices receded, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. “Further evidence of disinflation inside the October inflation report,” RSM US Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas posted on social media, noting that month-over-month inflation was flat at 3.2% and core inflation was up 0.2 percent to 4% over the same period. Although prices for a wide variety of goods and services have cooled this year, the current inflation rate is well above the 2% target set by the central bank. “Inflation expectations over the next 5 years dipped to 2.7%, slightly above the Fed’s long-run target of 2%. “We don’t think the last mile of disinflation will be particularly hard,” Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the outlook.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Stocks, Matt Bush, Patrick De Haan, “, ”, Piyush Patel, Jeffrey Roach, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: of Labor Statistics, RSM, Federal, Treasury, Dow Industrial, Guggenheim Partners, CNBC, National Retail Foundation, NRF, Affinity Solutions, Wall Street, Travel, Gas, New York Federal Reserve Bank, University of Michigan’s, LPL, Investment, ” Goldman Locations: U.S

☆ NY Fed finds softer inflation expectations in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A woman passes by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 13, 2023. The relative stability of New York Fed expectations data contrasts with that seen in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. It found in November a rise in year-ahead expected inflation to 4.4% from 4.2% in October, with five-year expected inflation up to 3.2%, from October’s 3%. Over the last year and a half the Fed has aggressively raised rates in a bid to cool high inflation. But it kept alive the prospect of more action should inflation not fall further on the path back to 2%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, there’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, ”, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Consumer, New, New York Fed, University of Michigan Consumer, University of Michigan, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, September’s, New York, York, October’s

☆ Morning Bid: Chip stocks cheered while the rest retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, October 30, 2023. Monthly retail sales data is due on Wednesday but the country's Singles Day shopping extraganza over the weekend - equivalent to Black Friday sales elsewhere - recorded only meagre growth. A sub-index of tech shares remained firmly positive but another of mainland property developers slumped more than 1%. U.S. retail sales data is also due on Wednesday, preceded by CPI a day earlier. ECB President Christine Lagarde last week said that rates will stay restrictive at least for several quarters.

Persons: Kevin Buckland Chip, Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Catherine L, Mann, Huw Pill, BoE's Mann, Sweden SEB, Kevin Buckland, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Wall, Reuters, Nikkei, CPI, Federal Reserve, Finance, Bank of England, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, Hong Kong, Elswhere, Sweden

☆ Most Americans think the economy should be in fairly good shape this time next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Consumers’ expectations for inflation one year and five years from now both dropped 0.1 percentage points from the month before, to land at 3.6% and 2.7%, respectively. However, median inflation expectations at the three-year horizon remained unchanged at 3%, a yearly high. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s closely watched consumer survey showed sentiment was waning about the current economic state and that inflation expectations ticked up over the long run. The median expected growth in household income ticked up a tenth of a percentage point to 3.1%. Overall, more respondents to the New York Fed survey said their households were better off than they were this time last year.

Persons: they’ll Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Reserve, Fed, University of Michigan’s, New Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York

☆ Stock futures are little changed after Moody’s downgrades U.S. outlook: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock exchange during morning trading on November 10, 2023 in New York City. U.S. stock futures inched down Sunday night after Moody's Investors Service lowered its U.S. credit rating outlook to negative from stable. Moody's on Friday underscored the U.S.' "very large" fiscal deficits and partisan gridlock in Washington as contributing factors for the downgrade. The ratings agency reaffirmed America's credit rating at AAA, the highest level. The S&P 500 rose 1.3% the previous week, while the Dow and Nasdaq gained about 0.7% and 2.4%, respectively.

Persons: Moody's, Fitch, Jay Hatfield, That's, Lisa Cook Organizations: New York Stock, Moody's Investors Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, AAA, U.S, Infrastructure Capital Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Dow Locations: New York City . U.S, Washington, Hatfield

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