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Equities lost ground right after Powell's prepared remarks were released ahead of his testimony and sank further as the session wore on. Powell told U.S. lawmakers the Fed is prepared to move in larger steps if economic data suggests tougher measures are needed to control rising prices. Data the Fed will use to influence its rate hiking path will include Friday's non-farm payroll numbers. Meanwhile, the yield on two-year Treasury notes , which best reflects short-term rate expectations, hit 5% for the first time since July 2007. Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS.N) was up 9.6% after the retailer forecast annual earnings above Wall Street estimates and more than doubled its quarterly dividend.
On the first day of testimony to lawmakers, Jerome Powell said the Fed will likely raise rates higher than expected. Traders are pricing in higher odds of a 50 basis-point move this month after Powell's comments. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist, Allianz Investment Management"Unsurprisingly, Chairman Powell delivered a message with hawkish undertones in his testimony to Congress. Higher rates and inflation should prove a headwind for P/E expansion, so investors should expect total return to derive from earnings and income." Jeffrey Roach, chief economist, LPL Financial"Rates will likely be higher than expected, but inflation is still the wild card as the Fed remains data-dependent.
The stock market is set to post solid gains for the first five trading days of 2023, and according to the classic Wall Street indicator, the early strength could bode well for the full year. The so-called first five days rule suggests that if stocks perform well in the initial five sessions in a given year, the market is often up at the year-end, according to Stock Trader's Almanac, which studied the market phenomenon going back to 1950. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S & P 500 has been positive 83% of the time at year-end with an average gain of 14%, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. The S & P 500 has risen 1.5% through the first four trading days of 2023, giving it a good chance of finishing first five days higher. While the indicator might send a positive signal, most on Wall Street are expecting a volatile year, especially during the first half.
Stock futures are flat Thursday evening as investors responded to data that elevated concerns of a looming recession and looked ahead to a slate of Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for Friday. They will also look for any hints on future Fed policy from speakers John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. Investors are trying to gauge the pace of future rate hikes and the central bank's view of the economy. There also will be data coming in the morning with December's purchasing managers' indexes within services and manufacturing. Manufacturing is expected to come in at the same rate as November, while services is expected to increase by 0.3 points.
A split government "makes major policy changes unlikely, and that stability in policy tends to be reassuring for investors." Still, macroeconomic concerns and monetary policy have driven markets all year, and investors believe that trend is unlikely to change anytime soon. "Inflation matters more than anything else right now," said Michael Antonelli, managing director and market strategist at Baird. In the last five instances when the November-December period occurred in a bear market, the S&P 500 logged an average two-month decline of 2.2%. If you look at bear markets there is no evidence of seasonality at the end of the year," Antonelli said.
Stock futures were flat Tuesday evening as traders look ahead to Wednesday's interest rate hike announcement from the Federal Reserve. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.07% and 0.07%, respectively. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield surged as high as 3.99%, its highest level since 2007. "To be sure, the recent technical weakness in stock prices must now contend with the resolve of monetary policy makers in their fight against inflation." He added that third-quarter earnings season may also add headwinds for stock prices if they show further margin erosion for U.S. companies.
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