Not everyone agrees the global economy is heading for a recession. Excluding the global financial crisis and the worst stage of the pandemic, that would be the weakest year for the world economy since 2001. Whether a global recession materializes may come down to three factors: what central banks do next, the consequences of China’s nascent reopening and energy prices. What a global recession meansWhether the world falls into recession or not, the next 12 months are likely to be difficult. Even if a global recession is averted, many countries could still endure downturns accompanied by painful rises in unemployment, though economists don’t agree on how severe and long they might last.

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