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Several investors mourned the passing of famed investor Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway , on Tuesday. "So sad to hear the news of the passing of Charlie Munger," El-Erian wrote. Mario Gabelli, chairman and CEO of Connecticut-based GAMCO Investors, wrote on Twitter: "Charlie Munger ….a titan has passed …all will miss Charlie." "Charlie Munger helped build an American institution, and through his wisdom and insights, inspired a generation of leaders. "Charlie Munger was a brilliant attorney," Annandale Capital chairman George Seay said Tuesday evening on Yahoo Finance.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett, Munger, Ariel Investments, Charles Bobrinskoy, Mohamed El, PIMCO, Erian, Mario Gabelli, Charlie Munger …, Charlie, Tim Cook, Cook, Stephanie Link, Hightower, Whitney Tilson, Tilson, George Seay, Wesley Chan, Chan, , Christina Cheddar Berk, Brian Evans, Alex Harring Organizations: Warren, Allianz, Twitter, Apple, Berkshire, Hightower Advisors, Berkshire Hathaway, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Daily, Costco Locations: Munger, Connecticut, Berkshire, American, California, Annandale, FPV
However, he added, they remain more upbeat compared with last holiday season and should spend more on gifts this year. According to FactSet, analysts anticipate there could be upside of more than 20% ahead, based on average price targets. The e-commerce giant is JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth's top pick for the holiday season. "We project US e-comm penetration at 23.4% of adj retail sales this holiday season, +90bps above the 22.5% in 2022," he said. "We think beauty has the potential to be a relevant gifting solution for cash-strapped consumers during the upcoming Holiday season," he said.
Persons: Chad Lusk, Alvarez, Lusk, Martis, LSEG, Inna Kuznetsova, Doug Anmuth's, Doug McMillon, Krisztina Katai, Katai, Michael Lasser, Ulta, Lasser, ToolsGroup's Kuznetsova, Marsal's Lusk, Michael Bloom Organizations: Shoppers, CNBC, Walmart, Target, Retailers, Centric Market Intelligence, Amazon, LSEG, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Costco, UBS, Fed, Black Locations: Lusk, Ulta, Wayfair, Williams, Sonoma
Wegovy contains semaglutide, the same active ingredient in Novo's type 2 diabetes drug Ozempic. A rising tide for Eli Lilly? Though the study was specifically about Wegovy, Wall Street sees a positive readthrough for similar medications from other providers, particularly Eli Lilly 's Zepbound. Similarly, UBS analyst Trung Huynh called the weekend data a "best-case" scenario for Eli Lilly. And the positive outcomes for both in the Wegovy study can be viewed as encouraging for how Zepbound should perform, the analyst added.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mark Purcell, Richard Vosser, Peter Verdult, Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's, Lilly, Andrew Baum, Trung Huynh, That's, it's, Zepbound, Huynh, Citi's Baum, James Shin isn't, Michael Bloom, Christina Cheddar Berk, Angelica Peebles Organizations: Novo Nordisk, American Heart Association, cardiologists, JPMorgan, Citi, ., UBS, North American, Tandem Diabetes Care, Deutsche Bank
Does Eli Lilly deserve to trade at a premium to Novo Nordisk shares? LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares since the start of the year. According to Shin, Lilly deserves a premium to Novo Nordisk because its portfolio is more diverse and it has less exposure to insulin. NVO YTD mountain Novo Nordisk shares year to date In the coming weeks, Lilly will start rolling out Zepbound to patients. Novo Nordisk is scheduled to release the full results of its Select cardiovascular trial at the American Heart Association conference.
Persons: Eli Lilly, James Shin, Shin, Lilly, We're, Lilly's, Zepbound, Wegovy, Chris Schott, Karsten Munk Knudsen, Novo, Schott, AstraZeneca, Eccogene, David Ricks, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Deutsche Bank, Biotech, Pharma, Centers for Disease Control, Novo, CNBC, American Heart Association Locations: U.S, GLP, Novo, Denmarkt
Sequence gives subscribers access to GLP-1 medications such as Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic. Schenk said the concern about the drop in WW's average revenue per user "seems overblown" and has created a buying opportunity for the stock. Stabilizing core business WW has been focused on stabilizing its core weight loss business. Both developments are a positive for WW's Sequence business. Schenk estimates that around 6 million current or lapsed WW subscribers would qualify for treatment with obesity medication.
Persons: Sima Sistani, Morgan Stanley, Lauren Schenk, Eli Lilly, Schenk, Lilly, Novo Organizations: International, Nordisk's Wegovy, FDA, 3Q, and Drug Administration, Novo Nordisk Locations: Friday's, Novo
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly reign over the anti-obesity drug market, and don't expect this duopoly to end soon, analysts say. All this goes on amid robust demand for Novo's semaglutide, which is sold as Ozempic for type 2 diabetes and as Wegovy for weight loss, and Lilly's tirzepatide, which hopes to receive regulatory approval for weight loss this year. Orforglipron is an oral drug Eli Lilly is developing. It has several other compounds in the pipeline, but Suvannavejh expects the weight loss drug to receive increased attention. "This range would also be competitive with LLY's orforglipron [an oral GLP-1 drug] weight loss at day 28," Smith said.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Piper Sandler, Yasmeen Rahimi, Cantor Fitzgerald, Louise Chen, Lilly, Lilly's, Chen, Price, Kyle Rasbach, We've, Rasbach, Altimmune Altimmune, NASH, Piper's, Rahimi, Cantor's Chen, it's, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Goldman Sachs, Chris Shibutani, David Risinger, Risinger, Jonathan Wolleben, Wolleben, Orforglipron, Graig Suvannavejh, Suvannavejh, Thomas Smith, LLY's, Smith, Yale Jen, Jen Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Novo, pharma, Pfizer Pfizer, danuglipron, Therapeutics, Leerink, Mizuho Securities, Viking Therapeutics Viking Therapeutics, Laidlaw & Co Locations: Novo, GLP, Eventide
And then you overlay on top of that the emergence of two or three brand new secular growth themes," he said. CNBC Pro takes a look at the stocks he likes in three "brand new" areas of growth: obesity drugs, reshoring and artificial intelligence. Reshoring infrastructure Ayer sees bright spots in the reshoring theme too. The portfolio manager named tech giant Amazon as a good play of the AI wave. The way Ayer sees it, more companies in the U.S. are foraying into AI right now, compared to those in other parts of the world.
Persons: Sanjay Ayer, Ayer, He's bullish, , Christina Cheddar Berk, Carmen Reinicke, Julie Coleman Organizations: CNBC Pro, WCM Investment Management, Equity Fund, Nordisk, Novo Nordisk, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Tetra Tech, Canadian, Canadian Pacific, U.S Locations: U.S, China, Japan, India
Most analysts predict the market for new weight loss drugs like Wegovy and Mounjaro will be enormous, but estimates vary for its exact size depending on who you ask. On Monday, Citi raised its estimate for incretin drug sales to $71 billion by 2035, up from its prior estimate of $55 billion. Last month, the firm made a case for there being a $150 billion to $200 billion opportunity for these drugs. At the moment, private insurance coverage isn't a guarantee for those seeking weight loss treatment, and the federal Medicare program doesn't cover weight loss drugs at all. Lilly expects the Food and Drug Administration to approve this drug to treat obesity by the end of this year.
Persons: Seamus, Fernandez, Andrew Baum, Goldman Sachs, Chris Shibutani, Shibutani, Eli Lilly, Lilly Organizations: Monday, Citi, Wegovy, Food and Drug Administration Locations: GLP
One of the downsides of taking new anti-obesity medications is that patients tend to lose lean muscle mass along with body fat. "This is a major shortcoming in terms of not just quality of life for the patients who have to lose lean muscle mass, but there's actually room to improve on the weight loss and there [are] other metabolic benefits to improving your lean muscle mass ... [including] you might have better durability of weight loss." The drug is being tested in a phase 2b study alongside semaglutide to protect against loss of muscle mass. Until then, patients will need to watch what they eat and focus on exercise just as they would on any other weight loss regimen. When that occurs, muscle loss will be an even bigger issue than it is now.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Allison Bratzel, there's, Bratzel, Versanis, Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, they're, Lydia Alexander, Alexander, Sandler's Bratzel, incretins, Biohaven, Nestle, Ulf Mark Schneider, Jeff Jonas, Jonas, Stephens, Jim Salera, Atkins, Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall, Nordisk's Ozempic, Obesity Medicine Association, Bristol Myers Squibb, Nestle, Gabelli, Quest, Foods Locations: Swiss
Developments surrounding the drugs, also popularly used for weight loss, have been disrupting anything from owners of dialysis centers to bariatric surgery providers and the food industry. But one investment advisor, Brian Krawez, president of Scharf Investments, says there are opportunities. "Many investors are concerned about the impacts of the GLP-1 drugs on a host of companies ranging from restaurants to consumer staples. Those mechanisms are the ones that help patients taking the drugs to lose weight and regulate their diabetes. They got roughly 35% market share, but a lot of people don't know the company," he said, adding that specialty pharmaceuticals — including the GLP-1 drugs —account for roughly 35% of the company's earnings.
Persons: Brian Krawez, Scharf, Mounjaro, Krawez, CNBC's, McKesson, It's, , Christina Cheddar Berk, Julie Coleman Organizations: Scharf Investments, CNBC, Novo Nordisk, Walmart, Unilever, Unilever isn't Locations: GLP, U.S
Medical device stocks of all kinds were pummeled over the past week as investors tried to calculate the ripple effects of new weight loss drugs. While the use of the GLP-1 drugs to treat obesity is still very limited at this point, it is expected to soar to a $100 billion market or more, by some estimates. Judging by the momentum in the stocks, investors have been betting that as people lose weight, there will be a decline in knee replacement surgery. A case for more knee surgery? Based on Truist's polling of 50 hospital administrators, the analyst expects the third quarter will show a slowing pace of knee replacement surgeries compared to the first half of 2023.
Persons: We've, Bill Sutherland, Piper Sandler, Matt O'Brien, Stryker, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, O'Brien, Richard Newitter, Newitter, Benchmark's Sutherland, Kaiser, Sutherland, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: American College of, Nordisk's Ozempic, Stryker, Surgery Partners, Permanente, Tenet Healthcare, Partners Locations: U.S, GLP
How GLP-1 drugs work Sorting through the facts reveals some likely winners and losers. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly shares year to date performance It is still early days for GLP-1 medications. Many have seen the rise of GLP-1 drugs as a threat to the medical device industry. Also, not all patients are able to tolerate GLP-1 drugs, which can cause side effects such as nausea. Among other medtech stocks, Plovanic sees GLP-1 drugs as an "incremental positive" for Dexcom, which makes continuous glucose monitors (CGMs), but an "incremental negative" for insulin pump makers like Insulet.
Persons: Insulet, Medtronic, Dexcom, BAX, NASH, Eli Lilly, Peter Verdult, Lilly, Eli Lilly aren't, Piper Sandler, Wegovy, Yasmeen Rahimi, Robbie Marcus, Marcus, hasn't, Baxter, David Low doesn't, William Plovanic, Craig Wong, Pan, Plovanic, Matt O'Brien, O'Brien, Rippling, Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley, Gutman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Baxter International, Baxter, GLP, Citi, Novo, Bank of America, Viking Therapeutics, Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Amgen, Companies, Fisher, Reuters, Inspire, Systems, JPMorgan, RBC Capital, Walmart, underperformance Locations: GLP, U.S, DaVita, ResMed
The eye-popping predictions for weight loss drug sales hinge on insurance companies agreeing to provide coverage of the pricey treatments, and momentum seems to be building on that front. The drugs include Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, which is sold as Ozempic for diabetes management and as Wegovy for weight loss. Unlike earlier generations of weight loss medicines, their side effects have been largely mild and included diarrhea, constipation and nausea. Higher hospital labor costs as well as GLP-1 medications are contributing to the biggest jump in health insurance costs since 2012, Lutz said. But those numbers will grow, especially as ongoing research continues to make the case for benefits beyond blood sugar control and weight loss.
Persons: Allen Lutz, Lutz, Lutz's, Savanta, Accolade, Eli Lilly, Mercer, Willis Towers Watson, Peter Verdult, Verdult, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Accolade, Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, Food, Drug Administration, Citi, Nordisk, Centers for Disease Control Locations: U.S
A recent survey conducted by Piper Sandler shows most of the 101 veterinarians it polled expect the prices they charge and the volume of patients they see to mostly hold up in the months ahead. While Piper Sandler "modestly" trimmed earnings estimates for 2024 for animal health-care companies Zoetis, Idexx Laboratories and Elanco Animal Health , Westenberg said Zoetis' products performed well in the survey. Solensia rang up $30 million in sales last year, but the opportunity for Librela is even bigger, according to the analyst. ZTS YTD mountain Even with the recent pullback in Zoetis stock, shares are up more than 18% year to date. In the Piper Sandler survey, few vets said they would pick the company's Credelio Quattro as their primary parasiticide when it is released.
Persons: Piper Sandler, David Westenberg, Westenberg, Librela, Solensia, Zoetis, FactSet, Quattro Organizations: Idexx Laboratories, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, Elanco Locations: parasiticides, U.S
Evercore ISI initiated coverage of Aclaris Therapeutics , a clinical stage biotech working on immunology and inflammation drugs, at an outperform, saying the market is underpricing its odds for success heading into the release of clinical trial data. Admittedly, the upcoming trial results may not be successful, which makes the bet a risky one, he said. If Aclaris is successful with zunsemetinib, it will be the only MK2 inhibitor on the market for rheumatoid arthritis, which Evercore ISI sees as an advantage. A similar drug from Bristol Myers Squibb wasn't successful in a different form of arthritis. Evercore ISI expects investors are only pricing in a 20% chance of positive data from the clinical trial, whereas the firm expects the odds are closer to 50%.
Persons: Gavin Clark, Clark, Gartner, zunsemetinib, Aclaris, Bristol Myers Squibb wasn't, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Evercore ISI, Aclaris Therapeutics, Gartner, Clark, Bristol Myers Squibb
While there has been a huge gain, it is barely scratching the surface of the potential market. Some potential patients don't have coverage of the pricey medicines through their health insurance plans yet. (For example, those seeking to use GLP-1 drugs for obesity can't receive coverage if they are insured by Medicare as the federal health plan is not allowed to cover weight loss drugs.) Walmart told Bank of America that fiscal second-quarter sales benefited roughly 1% from GLP-1 drug sales volumes. Its stock has fallen 45% year to date on fears that these drugs will shrink the company's market potential.
Persons: John Rainey, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Eli Lilly, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Larry Biegelsen, Biegelsen, Daniel Lyons, Janus Henderson, Lyons, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall Street, Nordisk's Wegovy, Bank of, Walmart, Health, Novo Nordisk, Medicare, Drug, Bank of America, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, CNBC Locations: U.S, GLP
NNN YTD mountain NNN REIT shares have fallen more than 22%. If that vision comes to pass, it could boost apartment operators such as Equity Residential , Avalonbay Communities and Apartment Income REIT , among others. PEAK YTD mountain Healthpeak shares are down 26% since January and hit a 52-week low Tuesday. Healthpeak shares hit a 52-week low on Tuesday, while Welltower shares shed more than 2%. Healthpeak shares are down more than 26% over the same period.
Persons: Jefferies, Jonathan Petersen, Petersen, Simon, Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Realty Investment Trust, Equity Locations: U.S, Canada
Anticipation should be building as Philip Morris prepares to bring iQOS back to the U.S. market. Philip Morris had partnered with Altria when iQOS was first launched in a handful of U.S. markets in 2019. Eventually, Philip Morris agreed to buy back the commercialization rights from Altria, and that deal is effective April 30, 2024. And this strategy is partly why, Herzog said, Philip Morris is one of Goldman's top picks. Last week, Philip Morris CEO Jacek Olczak spoke on X via ReutersPlus about its harm reduction efforts.
Persons: Philip, Goldman Sachs, Bonnie Herzog, Philip Morris, iQOS, Herzog, mgmt, Gaurav Jain, Jain, FactSet, Jacek Olczak, Jefferies, Owen Bennett, Bennett Organizations: Philip Morris International, Drug Administration, Altria, Barclays, Swedish Match, Bank of America, Rogue, Street Journal, Concordia, United Nations General Assembly Locations: U.S, Altria, New York
Fernandez sees a total addressable market of $140 billion to support patients with obesity. He expects there is a potential for GLP-1 drugs to become as common and widely used, much like statins are used to lower cholesterol. Morgan Stanley's Flynn estimates a 30% share of the diabetes market would generate $109 billion on a worldwide basis for GLP-1 drugs. Layer in a 15% to 30% share of the obesity market and that equates to worldwide sales of $97.4 billion to $194.8 billion. Guggenheim's estimates also assume that oral GLP-1 drugs that are currently in development are able to come to market a few years from now.
Persons: Seamus Fernandez, Fernandez, Lilly, Eli Lilly, Morgan Stanley, Terence Flynn, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Insulet, Canaccord, William Plovanic, Plovanic, It's, Morgan Stanley's Flynn, Flynn, Novo, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall, Novo, American Heart Association, Food and Drug Administration, Novo Nordisk, Iqvia, Disease Control Locations: GLP
Smucker 's plan to buy Twinkies -maker Hostess Brands is a risky move, if Morgan Stanley's latest research is correct. The firm revisited its August call that a new class of weight loss medications would hamper growth at some food and beverage companies . "Across our coverage, Numerator Insights data highlight that most center-store packaged food companies slightly over-index to consumers with obesity," Kaufman said. Hostess stock soared 19% on the news. Other food stocks with higher exposure to customers with obesity include Conagra , Kraft Heinz and Smucker, the report said, citing the Numerator data.
Persons: Smucker, Morgan Stanley's, Ding Dongs, Morgan Stanley, Pamela Kaufman, Atkins, Nordisk's Wegovy, Kaufman, Kraft Heinz, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Hostess Brands, Centers for Disease Control, Nordisk's Locations: U.S, GLP
Industry analysts are insisting that new weight loss and diabetes drugs like Ozempic won't hurt the demand for insulin pumps and continuous glucose monitors, but most investors aren't buying it. The answer may depend on who you listen to and whether you see GLP-1 drugs as a help or a hinderance to the category. DXCM 3M mountain In the quarter to date, Dexcom shares are down nearly 19%. Dexcom shares are down more than 7% year to date. TNDM 3M mountain Tandem Diabetes shares have fallen significantly this year.
Persons: Ozempic, Danielle Antalffy, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, hasn't, Dexcom, Piper Sandler, Matt O'Brien, O'Brien, Paresh Dandona, semaglutide, Travis Steed, Steed, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Nordisk's, Novo, New, of Medicine, Tandem Diabetes, Tandem Diabetes Care, Diabetes, Jacobs School of Medicine, Biomedical Sciences, University of Buffalo, Novo Nordisk's, Bank of America Locations: CGMs
That's where a number of early-stage drug delivery companies come in — and most are flying under investors' radar. Drug delivery tends to be a "roll-up sector," explained Edward Nash, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity. Nash recently looked at four companies operating in drug delivery: Rani Therapeutics , Biora Therapeutics , Avalyn Pharma and Elektrofi. At the moment, the most effective GLP-1 medications for weight loss are delivered via a subcutaneous injection. The verstility of the Rani pill also is encouraging, according to Harrison, since it could be used with a wide range of drugs.
Persons: that's, Edward Nash, Nash, Rani, FactSet, Talat Imran, Eli Lilly, Evercore, Lilly, Genuity's Nash, Julian Harrison, Rani's, Harrison, Cantor Fitzgerald, Olivia Brayer, Imran, We're Organizations: Big Pharma, Therapeutics, Biora Therapeutics, Avalyn Pharma, CNBC, Novo Nordisk, Novo, European Union, Food and Drug Administration, Celltrion Locations:
Calling it the "best fundamental story" among U.S. large caps, UBS analyst Colin Bristow on Friday lifted his price target to $612 from $526. The stock has already gained 47% year to date, mostly on the back of lofty expectations for weight loss drug sales. Bristow also expects data for its Crohn's disease treatment by year-end, as well as readouts on Verzenio for prostate cancer. Then by 2024, Lilly is expected to submit data for a cell therapy for type 1 diabetes. And there's potential for even more upside if the drug adds other indications such as renal treatment, he said.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Colin Bristow, Bristow, Lilly, Jaypirca, Novo's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Food, Drug, European Union, Novo Locations: U.S
One such prediction came Monday from Morgan Stanley analysts who forecasted a 1.3% drop in calorie consumption in the U.S. by 2035. The shift in behavior is notable because it will affect a sizeable demographic group that represents a disproportionate share of food consumption, the analysts said. In fact, some patients taking these medicines say they have to sometimes force themselves to eat due to a lack of appetite. These types of patterns were seen in consumer research Morgan Stanley conducted in June and July among 300 patients taking these medicines. Keurig Dr Pepper, with its coffee business accounting for about 30% of corporate sales, offers some diversification from at-risk beverage categories, Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: you've, Morgan Stanley, Pamela Kaufman, Read, Campbell, Mondelez, Eli Lilly's Mounjaro, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, John David Rainey, We've, we're, Rainey, Dara Mohsenian, Eric Serotta, Dr Pepper Organizations: Hostess Brands, Hershey, Nordisk's Ozempic, Centers for Disease Control, Food and Drug Administration, Novo Nordisk, Industry, Lawmakers, Walmart Locations: U.S, Cava
However, the pharmaceutical companies are making the case that weight loss can improve health, and possibly lower health-care costs over time. But analysts have said the news isn't all bad for such stocks, and many were fell too low on Tuesday. Deutsche Bank analyst Imron Zafar estimated Thursday that bariatric surgery accounts for about 5% of Intuitive Surgical's U.S. robotic surgery business, but has been driving much of the company's growth. Some of the surgeons Zafar spoke with said any drop off in bariatric surgery was likely to be offset by increased use of the robot for other procedures. But they expect the drugs will remain necessary because GLP-1 drugs have yet to show they improve fibrosis, which is associated with NASH.
Persons: nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, NASH, Abbott, Robbie Marcus, Marcus, Marcus doesn't, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Stryker, Smith, Zimmer Biomet, Bariatric, Imron Zafar, Zafar Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Abbott Laboratories, CNBC, JPMorgan, Companies, Inspire Medical Systems, Resmed, Philips, Nephew, Deutsche Bank, Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Sagimet Biosciences, Akero Therapeutics, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Viking Therapeutics, Madrigal Locations: U.S
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