Estee Lauder (EL) reported a better-than-expected fiscal first quarter, but a downbeat forecast for the rest of its fiscal year sent shares lower Wednesday. If the U.S. dollar is peaking here and starts to pullback, Estee Lauder will also see a huge pressure point on its business gradually ease. Even though foot traffic may be down in stores, we think Estee Lauder is seeing solid growth from its direct-to-consumer channels. Shares of Estee Lauder have dropped 13% since we started a position back near the end of September. Capital Returns Separately, Estee Lauder announced that it's increasing its quarterly dividend payment by 10% to 66 cents per share.

---