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Chinese stocks too have done poorly. 'High confidence in the tradable value' While the Chinese economy "is not very strong," Wong has "high confidence in the tradable value," of Chinese stocks. Stocks to play Goldman is overweight on several sectors including online retail, media/entertainment, tech hardware, health care equipment and services and food & beverage. Other stocks the investment bank sees outperforming "as the China growth story evolves" include internet services provider NetEase , technology hardware manufacturer Xiaomi , and manufacturing conglomerate BYD . China-focused ETFs Elsewhere, Saxo's Wong has his eye on the new infrastructure (such as 5G technology), industrial technology and agricultural technology themes.
Persons: Redmond Wong, Wong, Goldman Sachs, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo's Wong, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Clement Tan Organizations: Shenzhen Component, Saxo, CNBC, National Bureau of Statistics, Tech, Baidu, Galaxy Entertainment, Mining, China Resources Beer, Miniso, Hong Kong Exchange, CSI Agriculture, CSI 5G Communications, CSI Technology, Enterprises Locations: Shenzhen, China, Taiwan, India, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico
(Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images) Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China on Wednesday reported better-than-expected retail sales and industrial data for October, while the real estate drag worsened. Retail sales grew by 7.6% last month from a year ago, above the 7% growth forecast by a Reuters poll. watch nowWithin retail sales, sports and other leisure entertainment products saw sales surge by 25.7% in October from a year ago, the data showed. The International Monetary Fund last week cited Beijing's policy announcements as a reason to raise its China growth forecast for the year to 5.4%. Real estate and related sectors have accounted for about a quarter of China's gross domestic product.
Persons: Gita Gopinath Organizations: Getty, Nurphoto, Retail, Reuters, Investment, National Bureau of Statistics, Catering, Monetary Fund, IMF, CNBC, UBS Locations: CHONGQING, CHINA, Chongqing, China, BEIJING, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're still expecting a weaker China growth forecast going into next year, says HSBC's Fred NeumannFred Neumann, Chief Asia Economist and Co-Head of Global Research at HSBC, discusses the outlook for China and the broader Asia economy.
Persons: We're, Fred Neumann Fred Neumann Organizations: Chief Asia, Global Research, HSBC Locations: China, Asia
The new economic measures laid out by the U.K. government "will likely increase inequality", according to a spokesperson from the International Monetary Fund. BEIJING — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its China growth forecast to 5.4% for 2023. The IMF cited better-than-expected third-quarter growth and Beijing's recent policy announcements. However, the IMF still expects growth to slow next year to 4.6% "amid continuing weakness in the property market and subdued external demand." In October, the IMF had lowered its growth forecast for China to 5% this year and 4.2% next year.
Persons: Gita Gopinath Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: BEIJING, China
Amundi Institute discusses outlook for China's economy
  + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina growth will be lower but more stable if it cuts reliance on property sector: Amundi InstituteMahmood Pradhan of the Amundi Institute discusses the economic outlook for China.
Persons: Mahmood Pradhan Organizations: Amundi, Amundi Institute Locations: China
China's exports and imports drop again in September
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
In U.S.-dollar terms, exports fell by 6.2% last month from a year ago. China's exports have fallen on a year-on-year basis every month this year starting in May. The last positive print for imports on a year-on-year basis was in September last year. For the first three quarters of the year, China's exports to the U.S. fell by 16.4%, while imports dropped by 6% during that time. The volume of China's cosmetics imports fell by 14.2% in the first three quarters compared to a year ago.
Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, Imports, Reuters, European Union, CNBC, Association of Southeast, Nations, EU, U.S, Monetary Fund, Initiative Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, BEIJING, China, U.S, Russia, Europe, Southeast Asia
A foreign currency dealer counts US dollar notes at a currency market in Karachi on July 19, 2022. The dollar remained firm on Friday, putting pressure across a basket of currencies as stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation revived prospects that the Federal Reserve will have to keep rates higher for longer. U.S. consumer prices were pushed higher by a jump in rental costs in September, data showed on Thursday. On the day, markets are also focused on a handful of economic data from China out later in the Asian morning, including trade data, consumer inflation and producer prices for September. The Australian dollar , which often trades as a proxy for China growth, stood at $0.6321, while the kiwi fell to $0.59275.
Persons: David Doyle, Macquarie, Kyle Rodda, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg News Locations: Karachi, U.S, Tokyo, China
How the $13 trillion economy's slowdown will affect other emerging markets is still an unanswered question for investors. "Lower for longer Chinese growth is shaping a new regime of investments," Amundi's head of emerging markets Yerlan Syzdykov told Reuters. The World Bank trimmed its 2024 China growth forecast to 4.4% from 4.8%. 6/DEVELOPING REFORMThe World Bank, IMF and other multilateral development banks are under pressure to boost lending to poorer countries to fund development and tackle climate change. China and other large emerging economies have long demanded a greater say in the global financial architecture, which is still dominated by parameters set out by the 1944 Bretton Woods meeting, where the IMF and World Bank were established.
Persons: Abdelhak, Joseph Cuthbertson, Syzdykov, Anna Gelpern, Gregory Smith, Smith, Mehmet Simsek, Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, drubbing, Timothy Ash, Jorgelina, Rosario, Rachel Savage, Marc Jones, Karin Strohecker, Christina Fincher Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Palais des, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, International Monetary, PineBridge Investments, Reuters, Bank, Ukraine, U.S, Kyiv, Paris Club, IMF, American, London, G Investments, JPMorgan, Egypt IMF, Fitch, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Finance, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Palais, Palais des Congres, Marrakech, Morocco, Argentina, Pakistan, Kenya, Egypt, CHINA, China, UKRAINE, Ukraine, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Georgetown, Nigeria, TURKEY, Ankara, New York, Washington, London, Woods
Dollar holds fast, yen in shaky territory ahead of FOMC
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of rivals, stayed mostly flat at 105.17 as traders awaited the Fed's rate decision. Attention stayed fixed on the yen as U.S. and Japanese authorities heaped on fresh comments about the possibility of intervention. The yen last sat around 147.83 versus the greenback, off Tuesday's low of 147.92 though hovering near the 10-month trough against the dollar ahead of the FOMC announcement. Elsewhere in Asia, the offshore yuan was largely unchanged after China met market expectations by keeping its benchmark lending rates unchanged on Wednesday, but later ticked down 0.1% to 7.3103 per dollar. The Australian dollar , a proxy for China growth, fell nearly 0.1% in the Asian afternoon, while the New Zealand dollar was flat, down from Tuesday's two-week high against the dollar.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Masato Kanda, Janet Yellen, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Washington, Treasury, Bank of Japan's, New Zealand, Bank of England, bitcoin BTC, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S, Asia, China, bitcoin
Dollar firm but softens against yen ahead of FOMC
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Brigid Riley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TOKYO, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The dollar remained firm on Wednesday but softened slightly against the yen ahead of a much-anticipated rate decision by the Federal Reserve later in the day. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of rivals, stayed mostly flat at 105.13 as traders awaited the Fed's rate decision. Dollar/yen could see some upside pressure after a hawkish FOMC meeting, she added. The yen last sat nearly 0.1% higher at 147.77 versus the greenback, off Tuesday's low of 147.92 though hovering near the 10-month trough against the dollar ahead of the FOMC announcement. The New Zealand dollar ticked up over 0.2% against the dollar near $0.5950.
Persons: Carol Kong, Masato Kanda, Brigid Riley, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, Reserve Bank, Australia's, New Zealand, Bank of England, bitcoin BTC, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, China, bitcoin
The Asian Development Bank trimmed its 2023 growth forecast for the region to 4.7% on the back of China's embattled property sector and a persistently high interest rate environment. "The PRC's property market poses a downside risk and could hold back regional growth," ADB said in its outlook report released Wednesday. China's property sector has languished ever since Evergrande defaulted in 2021. ADB also lowered its China growth forecast from 5% to 4.9%. "Although inflation is coming down, prices are still somewhat elevated and we're seeing with high interest rates, cautious attitude by some investors in different parts of the region."
Persons: Evergrande, Albert Park, CNBC's, El Niño Organizations: Asian Development Bank, ADB Locations: China's, China, Southeast Asia
Among China-focused investment firms, only four U.S. dollar-denominated venture capital funds established between 2015 and 2020 have at least returned investors all the money they put in. Alternative assets include venture capital, but not publicly traded stocks and bonds. Preqin doesn't track every single China VC fund, and only included those with data as of the end of last year or more recently. In the world of early-stage investing, "limited partners" (typically institutions) give money to "general partners" (venture capital funds) to invest into startups. The outperforming funds were: Loyal Valley Capital Advantage Fund I, Hillhouse Fund II, Oceanpine USD Fund I and HighLight Capital USD Fund II.
Persons: Preqin, , Reuben Lai, , Reuben Lai Preqin, they'd, Alex Shum, Preqin's Lai, there's, Lai, Jinjian Zhang, Vitalbridge, Zhang Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, ., China VC, CNBC, Fengshion, Investment Fund, LYFE Capital, GGV, BioTrack, U.S, Capital, II, Sequoia, Sequoia Capital China Growth Fund, TPG NewQuest Locations: Shenzhen, China, BEIJING, That's, Preqin, Greater China, Beijing, IPOs, Vitalbridge, Shanghai
The U.S. dollar index last stood somewhat lower at 105.32, but still near Thursday's six-month peak of 105.43. The yuan and Australian and New Zealand dollars received a boost after a batch of economic data from China in the Asian morning came in better-than-expected for some key indicators, providing a rare lift in sentiment. The offshore yuan inched up against the dollar to 7.2918 following the release. The Australian dollar , a proxy for China growth, rose nearly 0.3% to $0.6443, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.2% at $0.5912. The yen stuck near 147.41 per dollar in the Asian morning.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Rodrigo Catril, Sterling, Simon Harvey, Brigid Riley, Indradip Ghosh, Lincoln, Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Central, U.S, greenback, New Zealand, People's Bank of China's, National Bank of Australia, Australian, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Thursday's, Europe
Top investors are dumping emerging market equities and buying U.S. stocks at a record pace due to concerns about a potential global crisis, according to Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. The BofA Global Fund Manager Survey showed that September saw a record jump in investor allocation to the U.S., and out of emerging market securities. The shift in asset allocation stemmed from a significant decline in China growth expectations. Bank of America's survey showed none of the respondents now expect a stronger economy in China, versus 78% when polled in February. Bank of America's survey showed investors see China real estate as the No.1 source of the next global credit event.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Survey, Bank of, People's Bank of Locations: U.S, China, Beijing, People's Bank of China
The nation's manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth straight month, the latest data show. Economists have slashed their China growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024. The latest reading for the nation's manufacturing purchasing managers' index, or PMI, came in at 49.7 — below the 50 level that divides expansion and contraction. AdvertisementAdvertisementBut these measures have fallen short of the massive amount of stimulus it would take to revive its ailing industries – including its enormous, debt-ridden property sector. China's property sector makes up about 30% of the country's overall output.
Persons: Robert Carnell Organizations: Service, PMI, Reuters, ING Group, Bloomberg Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing
Soft data drags back dollar ahead of Jackson Hole
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar nursed a sharp pullback against Asian currencies on Thursday, after softer-than-expected global economic data muddied the interest rate outlook and pushed down U.S. yields ahead of the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium. The New Zealand dollar also leapt overnight, as did the yen , which crossed below 145 to the dollar for the first time in more than a week tracking a sharp move lower in U.S. Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies remains higher for the month, but dipped about 0.2% overnight. PMI data was soft globally, which tempered gains for the euro and sent sterling on a wide-ranging round trip before it steadied around $1.2717. China's yuan, which has been supported by state-bank buying in recent sessions, was steady at 7.2864 in thin offshore trade.
Persons: Jackson, PMIs, Carol Kong, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Treasury, PMI Locations: U.S, Asia, China
China surprises with modest rate cut amid growing yuan risks
  + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points to 3.45% from 3.55% previously, while the five-year LPR was left at 4.20%. The 10 bp cut in the one-year rate was smaller than the 15 bp cut expected by most poll respondents. Most new and outstanding loans in China are based on the one-year LPR, while the five-year rate influences the pricing of mortgages. The reduction in the one-year LPR came after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) unexpectedly lowered its medium-term policy rate last week. Cheung added that the unexpected rate outcome should be "negative to China growth outlook and the yuan exchange rate".
Persons: Tingshu Wang, LPR, Masayuki Kichikawa, Ken Cheung, Cheung, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Kevin Buckland, Sam Holmes Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Rights, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, Shanghai
They are: BOCIP China Value A Fidelity China Focus A Dist USD Ninety One GSF All China Eq A Acc HKD The first two have a value-style tilt – and not only beat the MSCI China Index in the first half of this year, but also in all of 2022, according to Morningstar. Although both value and growth China funds have generally posted losses over the three years ended July 2023, growth has lagged value by 12% a year, Liang said. However, she was quick to point out that just focusing on a single investment style such as value versus growth isn't enough. In terms of Morningstar's fund ratings — based on factors the firm calls people, process and parent — Schroder's ISF China Opps and FSSA China Growth have gold ratings for strong performance in the "people" and "process" categories. Closely watching valuations helped Schroders China's portfolio manager take some timely profits on "some overheated information technology" stocks, Liang said.
Persons: Warren Buffett, , Claire Liang, Morningstar's, Liang, Benjamin Graham's, Goldman Sachs, It's, Timothy Moe Organizations: Morningstar, Fidelity, Acc, China, House Research Institute, Netflix, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Locations: China, Fidelity China, Asia, Suzhou
A sign is displayed on the Morgan Stanley building in New York U.S., July 16, 2018. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 17 (Reuters) - Four major brokerages cut China's economic growth forecast for the year as worries about contagion from debt repayment troubles at its top private property developer Country Garden (2007.HK) deepened. China's economic growth outlook has soured further with retail sales, industrial output and investment growing at a slower-than-expected pace. Weak consumer demand has tipped the world's second largest economy into deflation amid rising pressure on Beijing to deliver more stimulus to support the economy. Following are forecasts from some global banks:Compiled by the Broker Research team in BengaluruOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Lucas Jackson Organizations: New York U.S, REUTERS, HK, Broker Research, Thomson Locations: New York, Beijing, Bengaluru
But several portfolio managers said the bigger worry was whether China would strike back, as it has in the past. "It is naïve to think that there won't be some type of retaliation from China," said Tom Plumb, CEO of mutual fund Plumb Funds. China could restrict exports of rare earths used in consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and other components, or target other U.S. technology companies, Plumb said. SELF-SUFFICIENCYChina hawks in Washington say American investors have transferred capital and valuable know-how to Chinese technology companies that could help advance Beijing's military capabilities. Phillip Wool, a co-portfolio manager of Rayliant Quantamental China Equity ETF, said U.S.-China tensions were causing investors to miss out on China growth.
Persons: Florence Lo, Joe Biden's, Biden, Rick Meckler, Tom Plumb, Plumb, Michael Ashley Schulman, Phillip Wool, Shashwat Chauhan, Amruta, Chibuike Oguh, Laura Matthews, Herbert Lash, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Grant McCool Organizations: REUTERS, Cherry Lane Investments, China Exchange, Wall, Micron Technology, U.S, Funds, Reuters, Running, Capital Advisors, China Equity, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Beijing, New Jersey, Washington, Rayliant
"The situation is already very bad for dollar-based funds to invest in China's tech sector. There isn't much room for things to get worse," said Beijing-based China Growth Capital partner Wayne Shiong. Biden's move will likely make China-focussed venture capital firms feel more urgency to raise yuan funds from Chinese investors, he said. In response to Biden's executive order, China's commerce ministry said it was "gravely concerned" and reserved the right to take countermeasures. But the executive order is barely going to do anything, and China escalating would risk turning a molehill into a mountain."
Persons: Florence Lo, Joe Biden's, Donald Trump, Weiheng Chen, Wilson Sonsini, Biden, Chen, Wayne Shiong, Biden's, Yuan, Pan, Trump, Derek Scissors, Kane Wu, Michael Martina, Roxanne Liu, Ziyi Tang, Yantoultra, Sumeet Chatterjee, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, China Growth Capital, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, TECH, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Analysts, American Enterprise Institute, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, HONG KONG, WASHINGTON, Beijing, Washington, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Bengaluru
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 growth forecast for India by 20 basis points to 6.1%, bolstering expectations that the current G20 chair will be the world's fastest growing major economy this year. Still, the IMF expects China to grow by 5.2% this year and 4.5% next year. The IMF then expects growth in the Japanese economy to slow to 1.0% in 2024, as the effects of past stimuli dissipate. The IMF raised its 2023 global growth prediction by 0.2 percentage point to 3%, up from 2.8% in its April assessment. The IMF kept its 2024 growth forecast unchanged at 3%.
Persons: China's Organizations: Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF Locations: Allahabad, India, Beijing, China, Asia, Japan, U.S
ReutersBEIJING – International investment firms have changed their China GDP forecasts nearly every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January. Here are some winners to watch The U.S. investment bank most recently cut its China GDP forecast in July to 5%, down from 5.5% previously. In June, the World Bank raised its forecast for China's growth this year to 5.6%, up from 4.3% previously. The International Monetary Fund in April raised its forecast for China's GDP to 5.2%, up from 4.4% previously. Among the six investment firms CNBC looked at, the highest China GDP forecast so far this year was JPMorgan's 6.4% figure — when the bank adjusted for the second time in April alone.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Logan Wright, Shehzad Qazi, Qazi Organizations: Reuters, Reuters BEIJING – International, JPMorgan, CNBC, Citi, Beijing, Citi's, UBS, National Bureau, Statistics, U.S, Chinese Communist Party . Investment, Bank, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Fund Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S, Beijing, New York
Morning Bid: China falls short and oil ebbs but banks impress
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Sub-forecast and sharply slowing retail sales growth for June likewise offset a more upbeat industrial output readout for the months. Even though falling import and export prices in June reinforced the disinflation picture, two-year Treasury yields recouped some of the week's steep declines. LUXURY FIRMSU.S. stock futures were little changed ahead of Monday's open, but two-year Treasury yields edged back lower to 4.72%. Elsewhere, shares of Richemont (CFR.S) dropped nearly 7% after the world's second-biggest luxury firm reported a miss in its sales and amid the China growth dampener. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she was working with India on energy transition and "eager" to work with China on debt workouts.
Persons: Mike Dolan China's, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Mike Dolan, Alison Williams Organizations: Hong, Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Tesla, Netflix, York Federal, governor's, . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, China, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Asia, Shanghai, Wall, Richemont, India, Russia, China . U.S
Wall Street was set for losses, too, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%-0.4%. The MSCI world equity index (.MIWD00000PUS), which tracks shares in 47 countries, fell 0.2%. The U.S. dollar drifted near the middle of its range of the past three weeks against major peers, with the dollar index down 0.1% to 102.99, after tracking between 103.75 and 102.75 since early June. Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dropped 0.7% after the China data. Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $76.05 a barrel after climbing 2.1% overnight.
Persons: Michael Hewson, Guy Miller, Brent, Tom Wilson, Stella Qiu, Dhara, Sam Holmes, Helen Popper Our Organizations: Nikkei, Global, Federal, Nasdaq, CMC Markets, Reuters, Zurich Insurance Group, U.S, Japan's Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, U.S, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, London, Sydney
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