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☆ UK's non-banking financial sector remains vulnerable, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUK's non-banking financial sector remains vulnerable, economist saysThe Bank of England should remain vigilant for "pockets of vulnerability" in the U.K.'s non-banking finance sector, says Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at T. Rowe Price.

Persons: Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price Organizations: Bank of England

☆ Europe's financial system will begin to fray as ECB continues tightening, says economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEurope's financial system will begin to fray as ECB continues tightening, says economistThe ECB will hold rates high to avoid admitting they have overtightened, according to Unicredit Chief European Economist Erik Nielsen

Persons: Erik Nielsen

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates after inflation shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists polled by Reuters last week were unanimous that the BoE would raise rates to 4.75%, their highest since 2008, from 4.5%. But after inflation held at 8.7% in May, financial markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a bigger move and raise rates by half a percentage point. "The UK has a uniquely bad inflation problem," Krishna Guha, a vice chairman at U.S. investment banking advisory firm Evercore, said. Core inflation - which strips out more volatile prices to show an underlying trend - rose to a 31-year high in May. "Unfortunately, the Bank of England is in a situation where they will have to hike until something breaks," he said.

Persons: BoE, Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey, Megan Greene, Wieladek, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Sky News, MPC, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States

☆ Bank of England set to raise rates to 4.75% as inflation slow to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, Neiss thinks the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates as much as markets have priced in. In a Reuters poll this week, economists predicted the BoE would raise interest rates just twice more, taking rates to a peak of 5% by August or September. The BoE faces three big challenges when assessing how much more rate tightening it needs to do. Fewer households have mortgages and more are on fixed rates - so a key channel for higher interest rates to affect the economy now operates with a delay. "If the Bank of England accelerated policy tightening now, that would smack of panic or a loss of control," McGuire said.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, BoE, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Bailey, Katharine Neiss, Neiss, Christine Lagarde, Richard McGuire, Swati Dhingra, Silvana Tenreyro, Megan Greene, Tenreyro, McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, David Milliken, Toby Chopra Organizations: Bank of England, REUTERS, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Italy, Fed, ECB, Reuters, homebuyers, Rabobank, MPC, Thomson Locations: City, London, Britain, of England

It overtook Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which is up 9%, in late May for the first time this year. In dollar terms, the STOXX 600 (.STOXXD) is still lagging, having gained 11.3% in 2023, while the euro is up 1.1%. "Relative to the U.S., European equities are looking less interesting and attractive," said Bernie Ahkong, co-chief investment officer at fund manager UBS O'Connor Global Multi-strategy Alpha. The euro zone economy was in technical recession in the first quarter, data from European statistics agency Eurostat showed last week. "But Europe looks even more unattractive than the U.S., because the temporary good data from Europe is really going to turn."

Persons: Europe's, Bernie Ahkong, UBS O'Connor, Ahkong, Geoffroy Goenen, Candriam, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, Hani Redha, Alex Richardson Organizations: UBS, UBS O'Connor Global, Alpha, U.S, Bank of America's, Eurostat, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China, PineBridge, United States

☆ European equity investors hunt for big returns in small places
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The MSCI Europe SMID index of European small to mid-cap firms (.MIEU000D0PEU) is trading near 2008 lows versus the wider market in terms of valuations, including both price/earnings and price-to-book ratios. The bank's small cap basket is invested across sectors, or 'sector neutral', to make it "less prone to the ups and downs of cyclical acceleration and deceleration." But M&A remains a supportive theme, said Amundi's Matti, as big players seeking external growth can look to the small cap sector for niche expertise to add to their portfolios. "When people are trying to find alpha to add to their portfolio, small caps tend to be the place to look at," said Matti. "Ultimately, they (small caps) are a rich hunting ground for long-term investors."

Persons: Dash, Emmanuel Cau, Amundi, Cristina Matti, Amundi's Matti, Matti, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, ”, Bernie Ahkong, Morgan Stanley's Secker, Thomas McGarrity, Lucy Raitano, Susan Fenton Organizations: Barclays, Energy, Reuters Graphics, O’Connor, Alpha, UBS Asset Management, Data, RBC Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Europe, Amundi

☆ Economic data more likely to disappoint than exceed expectations, Morgan Stanley strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic data more likely to disappoint than exceed expectations, Morgan Stanley strategist saysGraham Secker, chief European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, discusses the economic data outlook over the coming months.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Graham Secker

☆ ECB has not yet reached peak rates, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB has not yet reached peak rates, economist saysSilvia Ardagna, chief European economist at Barclays, says the ECB will not reach peak rates in its June meeting, but it will likely signal it is getting closer.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna Organizations: ECB, Barclays

☆ Bank of England set for 12th straight interest rate hike, but the outlook remains murky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. "All this, and updated projections, should be consistent with our call for a final 25bp hike at the June meeting to a terminal rate of 4.75%." Updated forecasts Alongside the rate decision, the MPC will update its forecasts on Thursday. "Thus, while our base case remains for a final hike in June, we see risks that they skip this meeting and deliver the final hike in August," Ardagno's team said. Deutsche Bank Senior Economist Sanjay Raja echoed the projections for a 7-2 split in favor of a 25 basis point hike on Thursday, followed by another quarter-point in June.

A broad measure of European shares, the STOXX 600 index (.STOXX), is trading at 14-month highs, taking this year's gains to almost 10%. James Rutland, a European equities fund manager at Invesco, noted that consistent outflows from European shares last year, when the energy crisis dealt the region a fresh blow, had left valuations at very cheap levels. A broad index of European stocks is trading at a multiple of 12.6, compared with a ratio of 18.1 for the S&P 500, according to Refinitiv data. This 5.5 point premium is above the five-year average of around 4 points, suggesting European shares look cheap compared to their U.S. counterparts. "This has broken European stocks out of their relative downward trend, so we don't think Europe is now a structural underperformer," he said.

LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Banking sector turmoil has not dented demand for equities, with MSCI's world stock index up 7% so far this year. But under the surface, bad omens for world stocks are building. Central bank surveys show U.S. and European banks are already tightening lending standards, historically a predictor of dismal stock market performance. Credit tightening predicts poor stock market returns2/ MANUFACTURING SLOWDOWNRecessions starting in the United States tend to flow to the rest of the world and consequently global stocks. Seven mega-cap tech stocks were responsible for 92% of the S&P 500's first-quarter rise, Citi notes.

☆ UBS could see big gains after forced Credit Suisse merger. Big U.S. banks may also be winners, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

UBS ' acquisition of Credit Suisse could lead to big gains for the Swiss bank. UBS agreed to buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs, or around $3.2 billion, in a forced deal announced Sunday. As part of the deal, Credit Suisse shareholders receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares they hold. But Barclays analyst Amit Goel wasn't so sure, cutting his view on European banks to neutral from positive on Monday. Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo, meanwhile, sees opportunity for U.S. banks coming out of the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse.

☆ Fail or sale? What could be next for stricken Credit Suisse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

In this article CSG.N-CHSBNY Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTPeople walk by the New York headquarters of Credit Suisse on March 15, 2023 in New York City. Barry Norris, CEO of Argonaut Capital, which has a short position in Credit Suisse, stressed the importance of a smooth outcome. watch nowEuropean banking shares have suffered steep declines throughout the latest Credit Suisse saga, highlighting market concerns about the contagion effect given the sheer scale of the 167-year-old institution. At the moment, the forecaster sees the problems at Credit Suisse and SVB as "a collection of different idiosyncratic issues." "We know that for most banks, including Credit Suisse, that exposure to higher yields has largely been hedged.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank collapse throws up uncertainty for a European Central Bank hoping to hike rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Imageswatch nowCore inflation — the key focus right now for policymakers — accelerated to 5.6% from 5.3%. That is reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will have to push borrowing costs ever higher. The ECB's key rate currently stands at 2.5%. Elsewhere, ECB watchers are also monitoring a lack of unity at the Frankfurt institution when it comes to what level its benchmark rate will peak at.

☆ UK's taxes are at a 70-year high. But its finance minister won't splash the cash at upcoming Budget
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has said Britain should have a "20-year plan" to become the world's next Silicon Valley. Public sector borrowing has also undershot by around £30 billion year-to-date, economists noted this week, in part reflecting higher-than-expected tax receipts. This will lend credence to Hunt's aims of bringing public sector net borrowing below 3% by 2027/28. LONDON — British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt will deliver the government's Budget commitments on Wednesday against a better-than-expected economic backdrop, but economists expect him to stay cautious for now. The U.K. economy flatlined in the final quarter of the year to narrowly avoid entering a technical recession, though suffered a sharp slump in December.

☆ Europe grew faster than the US last year. Its markets are outperforming too
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The overall rise is a reversal of a 15-year trend that has seen US stock indices, flush with fast-growing tech companies, consistently beat those across the Atlantic. Over the past decade, investors poured money into fast-growing tech stocks, aided by ultra-low interest rates. (SXXL)But tech companies have taken a beating recently. Tech companies, including Microsoft and Alphabet, announced thousands of layoffs last month. High interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow to expand their business, raising doubts about their future earnings.

While the error margins are unlikely to distort euro inflation in the long-term, economists say they could warp inflation expectations if not addressed, at a time when the European Central Bank is raising rates aggressively to tame double-digit inflation. As falling energy prices will take time to be reflected in household contracts, the current methodology will underestimate inflation when energy prices fall, CBS said. More volatility could follow when Germany introduces a cap on energy prices in March, that will also cut costs for January and February retroactively, he said. Eurostat has said that only measures that have a direct impact on energy prices, known to consumers before they purchase the energy, should reflect in inflation calculations. FEEDTHROUGH RISKSWith inflation at 10%, the calculation issues are unlikely to significantly impact the aggregate euro zone inflation print.

☆ Britain's new 'winter of discontent' deepens as widespread strikes mount over festive period
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In recent weeks, upcoming strike actions have been announced by nurses, rail workers, postal workers, ambulance workers, airport staff, Border Force agents, highway workers, Eurostar staff, civil servants, bus drivers, firefighters, charity workers, meteorologists and offshore workers. For the public sector, real earnings were 5 percentage points lower, and Hollingsworth suggested that the growing gap had become "unsustainable." "I think there's clearly a lot of pressure here for some catch-up on the public sector side of things, and it's clear that there is that labor bargaining power there." "However, the gap between private and public sector pay narrowed slightly, with private sector pay up 6.9%, while public sector pay is up by 2.7%." However, with negotiations remaining fraught and unions showing no signs of backing down, he said some catch-up on public sector pay growth will likely be required to prevent further disruption.

Headline inflation slowed in November for the first time in 1-1/2 years, to 10%, raising hopes that sky-high price growth has passed. ECB President Christine Lagarde will likely be careful about calling a peak after last year's "big mistake" of insisting surging prices were "transitory," said Pictet's Ducrozet. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane reckons wages would be a "primary driver" of price inflation even after energy price shocks fade. Closely-watched business activity data points to a mild recession and latest forecasts should show how the ECB views the coming slowdown. Lane believes record price growth will start to subside next year.

☆ Transitory inflation talk is back. But economists say higher prices are here to stay
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Andrew Kelly | ReutersGlobal markets have taken heart in recent weeks from data indicating that inflation may have peaked, but economists warn against the return of the "transitory" inflation narrative. Chief Investment Officer Christian Nolting told CNBC last week that the market's pricing for central bank cuts in the second half of 2023 were premature. "So from our perspective, we think inflation is going to be lower next year, but also higher than compared to previous years, so we will stay at higher levels, and from that perspective, I think central banks will stay put and not cut very fast," Nolting added. Although goods inflation will likely slow, BNP Paribas sees services inflation as stickier in part due to underlying wage pressures. "Admittedly, we think inflation volatility is still likely to fall from its current extremely high levels.

☆ Unicredit: 2023 to be dominated by disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnicredit: 2023 to be dominated by disinflationMarco Valli, chief European economist at Unicredit, discusses the lender's outlook for 2023, making his case for why the year is likely to be more about disinflation in Europe and the U.S. than strong recessions.

☆ Goldman Sachs: Energy crisis will push euro zone into 'shallow' recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs: Energy crisis will push euro zone into 'shallow' recessionSven Jari Stehn, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs, says the energy crisis will push the euro zone into a "fairly shallow" recession next year. However, he adds that the region is "roughly" at peak inflation, with price rises expected to fall closer to 3% next year.

☆ Barclays economist on how the British government can get debt on a downward trajectory
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBarclays economist on how the British government can get debt on a downward trajectorySilvia Ardagna, chief European economist at Barclays, discusses the U.K. government's latest fiscal statement and how the country can keep public debt on the downward trajectory.

☆ Euro zone predicted to have a deep recession and a difficult, slow recovery
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The euro zone economy is heading towards a recession, according to several economists. Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty ImagesThe euro zone is expected to plunge into recession in the coming months with economists warning "it will not be shallow." The 19-member zone that shares the euro currency has been under significant pressure since Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February. Speaking earlier this month, ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted that "the risk of recession has increased." Gas storageEven if the euro zone emerges out of recession in the first quarter of next year, economists say the subsequent months will still be hard.

☆ Analysis: European companies' robust Q3 makes timing the end of the bear market even harder
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Refinitiv data also shows analysts expect STOXX constituents to post quarterly earnings growth of 32.2% year on year, compared to just 4.3% for the benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) in the United States. Inflation has seen prices soar on the continent, but so far companies are showing they have been able to pass on rising costs. Of the 243 that have reported revenue, 80.7% beat analyst estimates, compared with 58% in an average quarter, according to Refinitiv. The STOXX technically entered a bear market in late September when it accumulated losses of more 20% from a January peak. “Our thesis at the moment is that we're not ready to say the bear market has finished.

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