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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNeumann: We shouldn't over-interpret the signals we're seeing early on in the year from JapanFred Neumann, chief Asia economist and co-head of global research for Asia at HSBC, discusses the divergence between the performance of the Chinese and Japanese markets and economies.
Persons: Japan Fred Neumann Organizations: Neumann, HSBC Locations: Japan, Asia
Hong Kong CNN —China’s top securities regulator has limited short-selling, in its latest effort to stem a protracted $6 trillion-dollar stock market rout that began in 2021. The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced Sunday it would “fully” suspend the lending of restricted shares on bourses in mainland China. The Shenzhen stock exchange is the second-largest in mainland China after Shanghai. Bloomberg/Getty ImagesCalm returns but challenges remainChinese authorities have stepped up their measures to stem the stock market rout over the past week. A day later, in an unprecedented move, regulators said they were considering evaluating the performance of the heads of state-owned companies based on their stock market value.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, , Ken Cheung, Evergrande, ” Cheung, Hong, Li Yunze, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Mizuho Bank, Bloomberg, Shanghai Shenzhen, Administration of Financial, People’s Bank of China Locations: Hong Kong, bourses, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan shares its 'non-consensus' view on China's property marketWendy Liu, chief Asia and China equity strategist at the investment bank, says the property market should show signs of stabilization in the second half of 2024.
Persons: Wendy Liu Organizations: JPMorgan Locations: Asia, China
But geopolitical tensions are growing and Wall Street appears to be underestimating their potential impact on the global economy and markets. The United States and China are squabbling about trade, particularly high-powered AI chips that both believe carry consequences for national security. Less trade could mean lower supplies to meet demand — and that could be bad news for inflation around the world. Bank of America also gave geopolitical risk a top spot on its list of surprises that could affect markets in 2024. It’s the worst start to a year for Chinese stocks since 2016, when investors were ditching their holdings following a market crash in 2015.
Persons: , , Jamie Dimon, dory, he’s, Anna Cooban, Laura He, Hong, Premier Li Qiang, Ken Cheung, Catherine Thorbecke Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Shipping, CNBC, Economic, Bank of America, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, , Shenzhen Component, Premier, Mizuho Bank, MIT’s Computer, Artificial Intelligence Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, United States, China, Taiwan, Suez, Iranian, Pakistan, Iran, Europe, Asia, Drewry, Yemen, Davos, Switzerland, Wall, Shanghai, Shenzhen
Hong Kong CNN —Chinese shares haven’t just had a bad start to 2024. The astonishing losses, reminiscent of the last Chinese stock market crash of 2015-2016, highlight a crisis of confidence among investors concerned about the country’s future. But on the same day, major state-owned banks moved to support the Chinese yuan, in order to prevent the currency from falling too fast as Chinese shares plunged, according to a Reuters report, citing unnamed sources. Topics related to the “market plunge” and “China’s stock market rescue” were trending on Weibo on Tuesday. “I’m sad about today’s stock market performance,” Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief for state newspaper Global Times, posted on Weibo on Monday.
Persons: It’s, , Goldman Sachs, Wall, Li Qiang, , Nomura, bedeviling, Beijing’s, Li, Ken Cheung, ” Hu Xijin, “ Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Reuters, Bloomberg, Monday, People’s Bank of China, , Big Tech, Xinhua, Hong, Mizuho Bank, Global Times Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Japan, Asia, Beijing, US, Weibo
The Shenzhen Component Index, a tech-heavy benchmark, had its worst day in nearly two years, plunging 3.5%. It’s the worst start to a year for Chinese stocks since 2016, when investors were ditching their holdings following a market crash in 2015. The country’s economy grew by 5.2% last year. That beat government projections but is still one of China’s worst economic performances in over three decades. The International Monetary Fund forecasts the country’s economic growth to slow to 4.2% this year.
Persons: Ken Cheung, , Europe’s, Premier Li Qiang, Brian Martin, Daniel Hynes, Li, , ” Stephen Innes, managing Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Shenzhen Component, Mizuho Bank, CSI, Nikkei, Premier, Economic, ANZ Research, Monetary Fund, China’s Commerce Ministry, Investors Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, United States
[1/2] A Chinese national flag flutters at the headquarters of a commercial bank on a financial street near the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, in central Beijing November 24, 2014. "The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector," Moody's said. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary," the ministry said. STRUGGLING FOR TRACTIONMost analysts believe China's growth is on track to hit the government's target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven. Analysts widely agree that China's growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Moody's, Ken Cheung, Pan Gongsheng, COVID, Goldman Sachs, Gnaneshwar Rajan, Kevin Yao, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Economic Work Conference, Fitch, China's Finance Ministry, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Bengaluru
Loan growth at Asian banks is estimated to rise from 4.5% this year to 10% next year, LSEG data shows, with banks in India and Indonesia leading with 15% and 11% growth, respectively. Ng likes banks in India and Indonesia, given the better economic growth in those economies and ability of banks to sustain margins. LSEG data shows profits at banks in India and Indonesia will grow 13% and 11% respectively next year, nearly double the 6% average rise across Asia-Pacific banks. That compares to price-to-book ratio for MSCI's index for all-country Asian banks (.dMIAS0CB00PUS) of 0.9. Banks in Australia are estimated to see a drop of 5% in profit in 2024 while profits at Singapore banks will be flat.
Persons: Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Morgan, Yao Ng, abrdn, Ng, Vinay Agarwal, Agarwal, Morgan Stanley, Ankur Banerjee, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: U.S . Federal, Fed, HSBC, ICICI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, FSSA Investment Management, Indonesia's Bank Central Asia, BCA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Asia, Japan, J.P, Pacific, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Banks, Australia, China, Bengaluru
Chinese Yuan and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The surge in their borrowing from Chinese banks has catapulted the yuan past the euro into becoming the second-biggest currency used in global trade finance, providing a fillip to Beijing's ambitions to internationalize the yuan. "Panda bonds are steadily promoting the renminbi's function as a funding currency", the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said a report last month. German automaker Volkswagen Group (VOWG_p.DE) told Reuters it will use its inaugural 1.5 billion yuan panda bond proceeds only for its onshore China business. ($1 = 7.2421 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Samuel Shen and Rae Wee Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, Fiona Lim, Lim, SWIFT, Mercedes, Yuan internationalisation, Mark Williams, It's, Maybank's Lim, Williams, Samuel Shen, Rae Wee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, BMW, Crédit Agricole S.A, National Bank of Canada, People's Bank of China, Standard Chartered Bank, Bank of China's, Volkswagen Group, Reuters, Benz Group, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Rights SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, Hong Kong, Asia, Russia, Argentina, Pakistan, Nigeria
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia, Thailand are attractive emerging markets, Goldman Sachs saysTimothy Moe, chief Asia Pacific equity strategist of Goldman Sachs, says India and Thailand are his two top picks among emerging markets
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Timothy Moe Organizations: Asia Locations: India, Thailand, Asia Pacific
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSingapore is a safe haven in a 'difficult' global environment, Morgan Stanley saysJonathan Garner, chief Asia and emerging market equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, is bullish on Singapore as it's the "strongest sovereign" in Asia. He says the Singapore dollar is least likely to experience weakening in a challenging macro environment.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jonathan Garner Organizations: Singapore Locations: Asia, Singapore
Lending data from China's central bank offers a glimpse of government priorities: as of the end of September, outstanding loans to the troubled property sector fell 0.2% year-on-year but lending to the manufacturing sector jumped 38.2%. This time, the government's focus is narrower, targeting high-tech and "advanced manufacturing", a goal laid out in 2021 in the 14th five-year plan. It grew 11.3% in the first nine months of 2023 year-on-year, compared with 6.3% for overall manufacturing investment, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics. For example, Guangdong province has increased lending to both high-tech and advanced manufacturing by about 45%, state media reported. During the first half of 2023, outstanding loans to the high-tech manufacturing sector in the eastern province of Shandong jumped 67%.
Persons: Jens Eskelund, Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Frederic Neumann, Neumann, Tao Wang, Wang, Fu, Lu Zhengwei, Siyi Liu, Kripa Jayaram, Robert Birsel Organizations: Rights, European Chamber of Commerce, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, U.S, Reuters Graphics, overcapacity, HSBC, UBS, China's National Bureau of Statistics, Rystad Energy, EV, China Passenger Car Association, Bank, Industrial Bank, Thomson Locations: Suqian, Jiangsu province, China, CHINA, Rights BEIJING, Europe, Beijing, San Francisco, Xi, Asia, Guangdong province, Shandong, Dongguan, Shanghai
The Singles Day festival, also known as “Double 11,” was created by Alibaba in 2009 and has turned into a weeks-long shopping bonanza in China. To lure them, e-commerce platforms are offering rock bottom prices this Singles Day. “While the government is looking for solid consumption growth, consumer spending is hampered by both lower household income growth and weak consumer confidence,” said Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at S&P Global Ratings. This is a real downgrade in consumption,” the user said, adding she hadn’t yet spent any money during the current Singles Day. “Some promotions are fake,” said another user under the name “Nyanko.” “Merchants have raised prices before cutting them for Singles Day.
Persons: , Alibaba, Alibaba’s, JD.com’s, Pinduoduo’s, ” “, Alicia Yap, Zhejiang province Hu Xiaofei, Louis Kuijs, ” Kuijs, Jacob Cooke, , ” Cooke, Cooke, John Donahoe, Lululemon Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Companies, Citi, , China’s, Technologies, Bain and Company, Pinduoduo, Nike, . Company, Starbucks Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Jinhua, Zhejiang province, Asia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're still expecting a weaker China growth forecast going into next year, says HSBC's Fred NeumannFred Neumann, Chief Asia Economist and Co-Head of Global Research at HSBC, discusses the outlook for China and the broader Asia economy.
Persons: We're, Fred Neumann Fred Neumann Organizations: Chief Asia, Global Research, HSBC Locations: China, Asia
But it's also likely the BOJ have their finger on the intervention button to cap any runaway rally on USD/JPY." Nevertheless, this is working in a way to increase the volatility of the global rates market. This means it will still have a certain distance until the BOJ exit from the negative rate policy." "A yield cap isn't a yield cap if you change it every time the market gets close." The Bank of Japan could lift the negative policy rate to zero over the coming year.
Persons: Kim Kyung, KYLE RODDA, MATT SIMPSON, JPY, it's, NOMURA, They've, TONY SYCAMORE, normalisation, TAKAYUKI MIYAJIMA, ROB CARNELL, they're, JEFF NG, TOM NASH, OMORI, SHOTARO KUGO, me, IZURU KATO, MARCEL THIELIANT, today's, FREDERIC NEUMANN, CHRISTOPHER WONG, BOJ's, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Bank of, Nikkei, SAXO, SONY, ING, UBS, CHIEF, DAIWA, OF, HSBC, Global, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, MELBOURNE, BRISBANE, SINGAPORE, TOKYO, U.S, SYDNEY, ASIA, PACIFIC, CHIEF JAPAN, stagflation, OF ASIA, YCC, HONG KONG
Lower growth is the 'new normal' for China, HSBC economist says
  + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLower growth is the 'new normal' for China, HSBC economist saysFred Neumann, HSBC's chief Asia economist and co-head of global research, says there are "green shoots, but they haven't really grown into … sturdy trees just yet."
Persons: Fred Neumann Organizations: HSBC Locations: China, HSBC's, Asia
China's real estate industry is collapsing in slow motion. And now the International Monetary Fund just cut its global growth forecasts for 2024 and called out China's real estate crisis as a big reason why. Youth unemployment is at record levels, gross domestic product forecasts have been lowered and the ongoing real estate crisis has been hitting consumer confidence and foreign investment in the country. "China's shrinking real estate sector over the coming years will really have a huge impact on heavy industry, on the commodity markets globally," he said. There’s going to be less cement being used — less glass, for example.
Persons: Frederic Neumann, Neumann Organizations: International Monetary Fund, HSBC, CNBC Locations: China, Asia, Beijing
China to issue $137 bln sovereign debt to support economy
  + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Reuters reported on Monday that China's parliament was set to approve just over 1 trillion yuan in additional sovereign debt issuance, citing sources. "The additional fiscal support approved today is the intervention we had been expecting and that was needed to prevent an abrupt fiscal tightening in China in the closing weeks of the year," said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics. China has previously let local governments issue bonds ahead of the annual session of parliament, which approves government budget plans and is usually held in March. Local governments had been told to complete the issuance of the 2023 quota of 3.8 trillion yuan in special local bonds by September to fund infrastructure projects. The government has not disclosed the size of local governments' 2024 frontloaded bond quotas.
Persons: Mark Williams, Williams, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Ella Cao, Jason Neely, Susan Fenton Organizations: Xinhua, Reuters, National People's Congress, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Beijing
ON TRACK FOR GOVT GDP TARGETThe recovery momentum suggests the government's full year 2023 growth target of around 5.0% is likely to be achieved. The key issue is what growth target the government will set and how much fiscal easing will take place." The statistics bureau said China would be able to hit the 2023 growth target if the fourth quarter growth tops 4.4%. Moody's Analytics has also raised its 2023 growth projection to 5% from 4.9%. The faltering property sector has hit some of the biggest developers in the country.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Zhiwei Zhang, Tingshu Wang, Frederic Neumann, Louise Loo, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Kevin Yao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Index, New, REUTERS, Nomura, JPMorgan, Analysts, Country Garden Holdings, HK, Global Research, HSBC, Oxford Economics, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Brisbane, U.S, Beijing, China, New Zealand, Asia
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The dollar remained steady against major peers on Tuesday, after a pause in its rally following a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' tone. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the Fed funds rate," said Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan -- a notable shift from previously hawkish rhetoric. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to "proceed carefully" given the recent rise in yields. "There are another 13 Fed speakers scheduled this week which could see this theme develop further," said analysts at Westpac. "The idea that the increases in bond yields have done part of the tightening job appears to be gaining traction among some Fed officials," said OCBC rates strategist Frances Cheung.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Frances Cheung, Ken Cheung, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, New, East, Swiss, Palestinian, Dallas, Fed, Westpac, Columbus, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, New Zealand, Israeli, Israel, Tokyo, People's Bank of China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs strategist explains how Israel-Hamas conflict might affect Asian marketsTimothy Moe, chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, explains why markets in the region might get a respite in the fourth quarter.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Timothy Moe Locations: Israel, Asia, Pacific
No country is better positioned to benefit from the technology's rise, Capital Economics said. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementArtificial intelligence could transform the global economy – and it's the US that's best placed to benefit, according to Capital Economics. AdvertisementAdvertisement"AI is likely to help the US economy sustain its primacy over China in terms of GDP measured at market exchange rates," the strategists wrote.
Persons: , Mark Williams, Williams Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Country Locations: Singapore, Asia, Capital Economics China, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economic slowdown: Beijing is 'not as alarmed' as many people are, economist saysLouis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at S&P Global Ratings, says that's why "we've seen that piecemeal manner in which they are looking at supporting the economy."
Persons: Louis Kuijs Locations: Beijing, Asia
Evergrande stock crashes again as fears of collapse grow
  + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Hong Kong CNN —Shares of Evergrande Group crashed again on Wednesday as fears grew of a potential liquidation of the company, the poster child of China’s property crisis. Evergrande’s woes deepened this week, after it warned that its offshore debt restructuring plan may be in trouble because of a regulatory probe into its main subsidiary in mainland China. That was thanks to a rise in revenue because of a “short boom” in China’s property market earlier this year, the company said then. Evergrande has been trying to implement a government-supervised restructuring of its debts, which stood at $328 billion at the end of June. Evergrande was forced to cancel meetings with creditors scheduled for this week, in part because recent sales have been weaker than it expected.
Persons: Evergrande, , Jun Rong Yeap, Frederic Neumann, ” — Marc Stewart Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Evergrande Group, Hong, Hong Kong, IG Group, HSBC, CNN Locations: Hong Kong, China, Evergrande, United States, Asia, Beijing
Supply chains are diversifying away from China, causing a shift in global-trade patterns. Data shows that while manufacturing activity for end products has been moving out of China, supply chains haven't decoupled from the country. "Companies are moving manufacturing processes to other countries, including parts of Asia and North America, to diversify their supply chains. Companies are moving their supply chains out of China. As Insider reported in April, even Chinese companies are moving their supply chains out of China to avoid risks.
Persons: Donald Trump, Biden, Misha Govshteyn, Nomura, Sonal Varma, reexported, , Frederic Neumann, Yukon Huang, Genevieve Slosberg, Lu Yucong, Carnegie's Huang, MaroFab's Govshteyn Organizations: Service, Apple, Mazda, Asia Supply, Nomura Holdings, East, HSBC, Association of Southeast, Nations, Carnegie Asia Program, Financial Times Locations: China, Southeast Asia, Wall, Silicon, Asia, Washington, Beijing, Vietnam, Bangladesh, North America, Houston, South Korea, Hong Kong, China's, India, Japan, Europe, Yukon, America, United States, Guangdong
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