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☆ Economy on 'golden path' to bring inflation down without a recession, says Chicago Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy on 'golden path' to bring inflation down without a recession, says Chicago Fed presidentAustan Goolsbee, Chicago Federal Reserve president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Friday's jobs report, his overall view of the economy and more.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago Fed, Chicago Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago

☆ Fed's Goolsbee sees 'golden path' to lower inflation without a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday he's confident inflation can be tamed without a recession, even with additional interest rate increases likely. Speaking to CNBC following the release of the June nonfarm payrolls report, he said the ongoing job growth is part of the Fed's "golden path" toward restoring price stability without taking the economy. "That's the golden path, and I feel like we're on that golden path. Though Goolsbee said he is confident the that inflation is ebbing, he also sees more tightening as likely. "That is on the golden path where we get inflation down to something like our target and we do it without a recession."

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, nonfarm payrolls, Goolsbee, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Let's, Payrolls, haven't Organizations: Chicago Federal, CNBC, Federal Open Market

☆ Fed trying to figure out if rates are high enough: Goolsbee
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

June 30 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee on Friday said that he and colleagues will be parsing what will be "a lot of data" between now and the Fed's meeting in late July to assess if the US central bank needs to push borrowing costs up higher to bring down inflation. "That's what we are trying to figure out: have we done enough already? Do we still have substantially more to do, a modest amount more to do, and can we get inflation down without a recession?" Goolsbee said in an interview on Fox Business. Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Ann Saphir Organizations: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fox Business, Thomson

He said the full impact of central bank rate increases to date had yet to be felt. “I try ... to make it a point not to prejudge and make decisions when you are still weeks out from the meeting," Goolsbee said. "If you did not do that, the consequences for the financial system and for the broader economy would be extremely negative," Goolsbee said. "Even the anticipation of these problems does have consequences on the economy, it does have consequences on financial markets." Still to come before the Fed's June rate decision is another monthly read on the U.S. unemployment rate, now at a decades-low of 3.4%, and on consumer price inflation.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee: won't prejudge June rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

May 28 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Sunday he won't 'prejudge' whether he would support an interest-rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting in June, but noted that the full impact of the central bank's rate increases to date have yet to be felt. "We are going to get a lot of important data between now and then," Goolsbee told CBS's Face the Nation. "The actions that the Fed takes take months or even years to work their way through the system...there's no doubt inflation is too high, still -- it has come down -- and we are just trying to manage, can we get inflation down without starting a recession." Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Asian shares muted, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.09% in choppy trading, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) down 0.45%. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy edged closer to a deal to avoid a looming U.S. debt default Tuesday. After an hour of talks, McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, told reporters the two sides remained far apart on an agreement to lift the debt ceiling. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.01% to 102.61, inching closer to the five-week high of 102.75 it touched on Monday.

☆ Asian shares tentative, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.20% lower, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) was down 0.56%. U.S. stock indexes closed down overnight, hamstrung by dour forecast from Home Depot and April U.S. retail sales data that underscored softer consumer spending. "These actually came in on the lower end of expectations though the news was mixed, with a lower headline but higher core sales figures muddying the message." Recent economic data indicates slowing in the U.S. economy following a string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight high inflation.

☆ Morning bid: Fed rates to stay higher for longer, debt drama goes on
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told Bloomberg on Tuesday that it was "too premature" to be discussing interest rate cuts. Loretta Mester, the President at the Cleveland Fed, said they're not at the point where rates can be kept on hold. The chance of a rate cut as early as June has also disappeared, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, having stood at almost 20% a month ago. DEBT CEILING OPTIMISMWith just over two weeks until a possible U.S. debt default unless Congress votes to raise the debt ceiling past its $31.3 trillion limit, talks appear to be heading toward a positive outcome. Biden, who will be travelling to Japan on Wednesday, is set to cut his trip short and skip stops in Australia and Papua New Guinea amid the debt ceiling stand-off.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says May rate hike was 'close call' for him
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 15 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that his decision to support an interest rate hike at the U.S. central bank's most recent meeting in May was a "close call" as he weighed the impact of credit tightening from recent bank stresses. "The thing that made it a close call for me is this big question mark about what is going to be the impact of this on credit conditions," Goolsbee told CNBC, adding that things did not appear to have become notably worse since the prior Fed meeting. Asked about market expectations for rate cuts later in the year, even though Fed policymaker forecasts do not call for any, Goolsbee appeared to have a warning, noting that failed Silicon Valley Bank took off its own hedges against higher interest rates because it believed markets and not the Fed's projections. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee: 'way too premature' to expect June rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"We know that credit conditions like the ones we are seeing now in the past have been correlated with recessions, credit crunches," Goolsbee told Fox News. "It's way too premature to know what to do with monetary policy." Goolsbee voted with all other Fed policymakers on Wednesday to raise the Fed's policy rate by a quarter point to 5.00%-5.25%. Goolsbee on Friday said he is paying particular attention to credit conditions, given the recent failure of First Republic Bank and the troubles of other regional banks. "It has to give you some pause" about raising rates, he said, because tighter credit conditions are likely to slow the economy.

☆ Bond yields could drop under an idea that would make Treasury trading more like the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Known as "all-to-all" trading, the idea would allow any market participant to interact directly with another, without intermediaries. But in the Treasury market, banks have traditionally acted as dealers for buyers and sellers. Whether it happens or not, some changes to the Treasury market appear likely as it has become less liquid. At the same time, the Treasury market skyrocketed after 2008, as the government injected large quantities of stimulus into the economy that sent debt soaring. But all-to-all trading may also introduce less rational investors into Treasury markets, applying a gambling mentality to some trades.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says he is watching for other 'credit shoes' to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 19 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday that after the failure of two large regional Fed banks last month roiled the financial sector, he is waiting to see "whether there are other credit shoes to drop." "Not in the crisis sense, but in the how much squeezing is going to be coming up from the bank side," Goolsbee said in an interview with American Public Media's Marketplace. "I think it’s going to matter for whether this economy is going to slow down." In the next two weeks, he said, he will focus on prices and credit. Reporting by Ann Saphir Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says recent reports show inflation is moving in the right direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The latest batch of economic data shows positive developments on the inflation front, but the Federal Reserve's job is not over yet, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said. Goolsbee, who succeeded Charles Evans in the president role earlier this year, is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets the federal funds rate. The data showed a 1% decline in March, which is a larger fall than the 0.5% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The data this week has bolstered hopes of those predicting the Fed could change course on its interest rate hike campaign. "The one thing that I think we're spending too much time looking at is wage growth as an indicator of prices," Goolsbee said.

☆ Morning Bid: Glass half full on disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Headline March consumer price inflation is expected to drop as low as 5.2% from 6% - showing the disinflation journey from more than 40-year highs of 9.2% last June to the Fed's 2% target more than half way there. The rider is that headline inflation rates are expected be below stickier annual 'core' rates, which are forecast to have ticked higher to 5.6% last month. The International Monetary Fund's updated World Economic Outlook is also due on Tuesday ahead of the Fund's Spring meeting in Washington. The disinflation picture was encouraged around the world on Tuesday as Chinese consumer price inflation hit an 18-month low last month and the annual decline in factory prices sped up. Hopes that central bank rates are cresting worldwide lifted risk appetite across the spectrum with major cryptocurrency bitcoin broke back above $30,000 level for the first time in 10 months on Tuesday.

The biggest question in world finance right now is whether the eye-watering rebound in borrowing rates we've seen over the past month is just another overshoot - or the new reality. G7 2-year yields soarFed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseWorld economy surprising in 2023LOSING THE PLOTSince the middle of last year, futures markets have consistently priced peak Fed rates below where Fed officials themselves were guiding. But for at least six of the past nine months, futures markets priced a lower terminal rate than the central Fed view. Five-year equivalents have risen sharply too, while long-term euro zone inflation swaps are pricing the highest rates in more than a decade. The outcome is "strongly bimodal", they said, and either a recession hits and rates are cut, or it doesn't and rates go to 6.5%.

☆ Morning Bid: Irksome inflation won't die down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's latest U.S. inflation surprise was matched in Europe on Tuesday, with French and Spanish headline inflation rates unexpectedly rising again in February - making for an uncomfortable final day of a transformative month for markets. And worryingly, market-based measures of inflation expectations are rising sharply again too. U.S. two-year 'breakeven' inflation rates , taken from inflation-protected Treasury securities, have jumped 80 basis points this month to 2.8% - wiping away the prior assumption that inflation would return to the Fed's 2% target over two years. In Europe, the five year, five-year forward inflation linked swap has jumped 20bps to a 9-month high just under 2.5%. Stock markets steadied after early losses, with U.S. futures only slightly in the red ahead of the open and month end.

The month-to-month decline in the Adobe Digital Price Index, a measure of online shopping designed to mirror the basket of goods included in the government's Consumer Price Index, was an even faster 3.2%. U.S. shoppers spent $35.27 billion online overall during Cyber Week, the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Until that point online prices for years had been a drag on overall inflation. "If current trends continue, goods prices should begin to exert downward pressure on overall inflation in coming months," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week. As goods inflation has begun to slow prices for services have accelerated.

☆ Stocks regain some lost ground as investors interpret U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 263,000 jobs last month compared with economist expectations for 200,000 jobs. "That sentiment shift has been more powerful than any 'negativity' to be taken from today's jobs report," he said. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.15% on the day but added 1.5% for the week. Earlier it had jumped sharply in response to the jobs data, gaining as much as 0.82%. Gold prices also regained some lost ground from their earlier reaction to the jobs data.

☆ Economist Austan Goolsbee named next Chicago Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Austan Goolsbee will take over as president of the Chicago Federal Reserve early next year as the central bank weighs critical policy moves ahead, according to an announcement Thursday. "Austan is an exceptional choice to be the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsbee comes to the Chicago Fed at a sensitive time for the central bank. A Chicago Fed release announcing the appointment said the new district president is "a leading empirical economist" whose research spans a wide variety of topics. Goolsbee called the Chicago Fed "one of the crown jewels" of the central bank system.

☆ Fed's Evans: need to get policy rate to a bit above 4.5%, then hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 21 (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans on Friday repeated his view that the U.S. central bank ought to get policy to "a bit above" 4.5% by early next year and then hold it there so as to restrain growth and bring down too-high inflation. "Front-loading was a good thing, given how far below neutral rates were" as recently as March, when they were near zero, Evans told the regional Fed bank's Community Bankers Symposium earlier Friday. "But overshooting is costly, too, and there is great uncertainty about how restrictive policy must actually become, so this is going to put a premium on the strategy of getting to a place and a level where policy can plan to rest and evaluate data and developments." The remarks were shortened version of similar comments given two weeks ago; the bank posted a video of Evans' presentation on its website. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall Street ends higher as hopes for less aggressive Fed grow
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts widely expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight meeting in November. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 4.74%, the Dow gained 4.89% and the Nasdaq rose 5.22%. Schlumberger (SLB.N) shot up 10.33% to help to lift the S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) 2.76% after reporting a quarterly profit above expectations. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.59-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.03-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 60 new highs and 322 new lows.

☆ ‘This is serious’: JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns U.S. likely to tip into recession in 6 to 9 months
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Dimon said in June that he was preparing the bank for an economic "hurricane" caused by the Federal Reserve and Russia's war in Ukraine. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday warned that a "very, very serious" mix of headwinds was likely to tip both the U.S. and global economy into recession by the middle of next year. "These are very, very serious things which I think are likely to push the U.S. and the world — I mean, Europe is already in recession — and they're likely to put the U.S. in some kind of recession six to nine months from now," Dimon said. His comments come at a time of growing concern about the prospect of an economic recession as the Federal Reserve and other major central banks raise interest rates to combat soaring inflation. Speaking to CNBC last month, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said he's feeling apprehensive about the U.S. central bank going too far, too fast in its bid to tackle high inflation rates.

☆ Fed's Evans says fighting inflation is the top priority even if that means job losses
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said the central bank is holding fast in its commitment to bring down inflation even if it means people losing their jobs. "Price stability sets the stage for stronger growth in the future." "But price stability makes the future better." Evans said he sees some signs that inflation is letting up as supply chain pressures ease. Evans is a non-voter on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and has said he is leaving his position early in 2023.

☆ Fed’s Evans says he’s getting a little nervous about going too far, too fast with rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans says he's feeling apprehensive about the U.S. central bank raising interest rates too quickly in its quest to tackle runaway inflation. His comments come shortly after a slew of top Fed officials said they would continue to prioritize the fight against inflation, which is currently running near its highest levels since the early 1980s. The central bank raised benchmark interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point earlier this month, the third consecutive three-quarter point increase. Fed officials also indicated they would continue raising rates well above the current range of 3% to 3.25%. Asked about investor fears that the Fed didn't seem to be waiting long enough to adequately assess the impact of its interest rate hikes, Evans replied, "Well, I am a little nervous about exactly that."

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