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"The existing crypto market remains a low liquidity market, with limited new capital entering the space. Investors remain optimistic about the recent developments and what they could mean for the crypto market over the long term, however. The agency for years has maintained that various attempts at a bitcoin ETF didn't satisfy concerns about fraud and manipulation in the market. The ruling shot that down, noting that "bitcoin futures prices are ultimately based on spot market prices." "The industry push for Ethereum spot ETF follows immediately after, given ETH also has a similar market structure of a traded CME futures market ( > 2 years) and a spot market," he added.
Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, U.S ., Appeals, SEC, ETH, BTC Locations: U.S, Solana
As of Aug. 26, bitcoin trading volume on all exchanges sat at 129,307 BTC, according to CryptoQuant. Earlier in the month, on Aug. 12, it fell to 112,317 BTC, its lowest level since Nov. 10, 2018. Bitcoin's trading volume hit its lowest level in almost five years this month as investors keep waiting for reasons to jump back into the market. As we progress further into a bull market, the trading volume may continue to pick up." Correction: On Aug. 12, bitcoin trading volume fell to 112,317 BTC, its lowest level since Nov. 10, 2018.
Persons: CryptoQuant, It's, bitcoin, Julio Moreno, haven't, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Cantor Fitzgerald, Josh Siegler, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BTC, CNBC, Metrics, Securities and Exchange Commission
According to Bernstein, stablecoins are "the monster crypto killer-app" and could be a nearly $3 trillion market over the next five years. "Going forward, we expect tokenized stablecoins to be a $2.8 trillion market, led by regulated, onshore stablecoins." The stablecoin market has dropped sharply this year despite bitcoin being up about 75%. In July, it hit an all-time high of $83.8 billion and now accounts for 68.5% of the overall stablecoin market. The crypto market currently awaits a vote in Congress on a key stablecoin bill , which has just advanced to the House with three other crypto bills for the first time.
Persons: Bernstein, stablecoins, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S .
With bitcoin's price and trading volume still little changed, Bernstein is highlighting other crypto assets with good opportunities for investors. Bitcoin investors have been feeling deja vu as the setup for the next bull run takes shape. "It is time to dial up the crypto exposure, either through crypto equities or direct digital asset exposure for multi-asset strategies," he said. However, several investing themes within the market have emerged in recent years, and Bernstein has identified opportunities in specific assets to play each segment. Chhugani identified a seventh category, crypto games and prediction markets, but said market leaders in that space have yet to emerge.
Persons: Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Solana, Uniswap, Bernstein's, Ripple's XRP, Michael Bloom
If financial incumbents want to be part of the modernization of financial markets, they need to adopt blockchains, according to Bernstein. Beyond tradeable assets like bitcoin, however, there's an opportunity over the next five years for financial firms in tokenizing real-world assets on blockchains, the firm said in a note this week. "Tokenization, we believe, will transform financial markets over the next decade," analyst Gautam Chhugani said in the Tuesday note. "We forecast ~$5 trillion of real-world financial assets will be tokenized on blockchains over the next 5 years." There is also a big opportunity for new business verticals in custody, trading, trade finance and enterprise consulting, Chhugani said.
Persons: Bernstein, Cryptocurrencies, there's, Gautam Chhugani, Chhugani, Hamilton Lane, Franklin Templeton, Michael Bloom Organizations: Investment, KKR, Securitize, JPMorgan Locations: tokenizing, stablecoins
Crypto investment products are coming off their fifth consecutive week of outflows while trading volumes on trusted exchanges hit their lowest level since late 2020, according to CoinShares. Outflows in popular electronic trading products, mutual funds and OTC trusts referencing bitcoin , ether and other crypto assets totaled $32 million for the week ending May 19, CoinShares said in a weekly report Monday. "This was another down week for crypto and, interestingly, a week of divergence with upbeat equity markets," Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note Monday. The market saw $32.7 million in bitcoin outflows, followed by $1 million in ether. Any sign of dislocation in U.S. banks/the U.S. Dollar/the U.S. debt crisis could trigger crypto markets to catch a bid amidst the chaos."
A little over a month ago, Ethereum underwent a major technology upgrade that allowed investors to withdraw their "staked," or locked up, coins on the network for the first time ever. The change, known as Shanghai or Shapella, was meant to bring more liquidity to the network by allowing investors to withdraw their staked assets. The total value of ether staked has risen, while the supply has fallen dramatically. Here's what else has happened in the month since Shapella: 1. So far, however, ETH fees have outpaced the growth in the amount of ether staked, leading to higher yields, he said.
"In a way, Bitcoin Ordinals add more diversity and utility to the Bitcoin network, which could elevate the Bitcoin network utility to that of other blockchains, such as Ethereum." There's one population in crypto, however, who have long believed the Bitcoin network could and must do more than that. Binance cited Bitcoin network congestion on Sunday as the reason for pausing withdrawals, and bitcoin dropped 7% between then and Monday. "Congestion, or lots of demand for the block space, is not just good, it's a critical thing for the future of Bitcoin," Miller added. A sneak peek Ordinals and spikes in transaction fees are just a glimpse of what may be on the horizon.
"Bitcoin and the crypto financial system were made exactly for times like today," he said in a note Monday, highlighting the "breakdown of traditional financial systems" and "first principle questions on the fractional reserve business model of banks." "As the narrative towards a weaker dollar picks up, we believe bitcoin will emerge again as a faster horse than gold," Chhugani said. "Further, we believe it will also unleash a new crypto cycle, bringing about a new wave of innovation in crypto-based decentralized financial systems. Furthermore, the regulatory argument against crypto in the U.S. is weakening, according to the analyst, as Europe and Hong Kong take more progressive approaches. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin (BTC) this year Bitcoin fell about 4% Monday, according to Coin Metrics, after closing out its fourth positive month in a row with a 3% gain.
Bitcoin was originally designed, after the 2008 financial crisis, as digital cash that doesn't rely on banks. "To rescue the ship, the Fed will have to resort to dollar debasement and monetary printing again, bringing back the role of Bitcoin as digital gold." The shift back to the digital gold narrative has started, since the recent deposit runs and bank failures on regulated U.S. banks, triggered by high interest rates. A couple weeks later its gold correlation surpassed its Nasdaq correlation. "The safe haven signal will lead to a new crypto cycle, pushing digital wallets as on-chain savings accounts," the analysts said.
It's "irrational" to like gold and dislike bitcoin at this point in the macro cycle, according to Bernstein. At the same time, the flagship cryptocurrency's correlation with gold has been climbing, while its correlation with stocks has declined, Bernstein found. "If you like gold here, you should like bitcoin even more … Gold and bitcoin correlation increases during the periods of crisis. And when there is a massive monetary debasement event, while both bitcoin and gold rally, bitcoin outperforms gold." "Liking gold, but not liking bitcoin, is like hating on a faster horse," they said.
How crypto prices may react to the latest Fed decision
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed is due to conclude its two-day meeting and unveil its latest policy decision at 2 p.m. Still, inflation and Fed rate hikes remain the biggest catalysts for bitcoin. Here are three scenarios Chhugani and Agrawal are watching, and what investors how investors could expect to see prices react. "Crypto markets may rally on the immediate risk-on impulse, and it may vindicate some who have been saying the Fed reversed course, after breaking the banks," they said. "But any near term crypto rally would find it hard to sustain growth if crypto simply pivots to a risk on trade."
A flurry of factors have come together recently to spark a big comeback for crypto . Those gains come after a difficult 2022 for the crypto market. Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said that recent regulatory actions may not be as bad as people think, helping push crypto prices upwards. Short covering occurs when a short seller buys back shares in order to close out an open short position — returning borrowed shares — in an attempt to limit losses. But there's more than just short covering — there's fresh buying going on which is forcing prices to squeeze up, the firm said.
That's one observation about the current crypto bounce Bernstein analysts made in a note to investors Monday. They called it a mean-reversion rally, meaning that they see bitcoin prices reverting to their long-term mean or average level. "We reckon, the mean reversion of crypto still has some headroom," analyst Gautam Chhugani said in the note. BTC.CM= 6M mountain Bitcoin Nevertheless, Chhugani attributed the recent bounce to capital already within the crypto industry, namely "sidelined stablecoins" being deployed. As the crypto asset class becomes "more regulated," Chhugani expects to see institutions take crypto positions this year, he said.
Analysts from Bernstein laid out why they're still bullish on the crypto space. But Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Manas Agarwal offer crypto true believers a few reasons to keep the faith. Crypto keeps bouncing backThe past year was not the first "crypto winter," and crypto always bounced back fairly easily. Much of the crypto space remains decentralized. Chhugani and Agarwal said FTX's collapse had hastened DeFi adoption, which makes DeFi a bright spot in crypto investing, according to crypto VCs.
Analysts from Bernstein laid out why they're still bullish on the crypto space. But Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Manas Agarwal offer crypto true believers a few reasons to keep the faith. In a note published on January 3, they wrote that despite a catastrophic 2022, the larger crypto ecosystem still has potential. Much of the crypto space remains decentralized. Chhugani and Agarwal said FTX's collapse had hastened DeFi adoption, which makes DeFi a bright spot in crypto investing, according to crypto VCs.
If history is any indication, crypto prices will rally exponentially when this crypto winter is over, according to Bernstein. "Prior to 2022, crypto has gone through two winters in its 13-year history and the track record of buying into crypto stress has been spectacular," said Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani in a note Monday. "Crypto as an industry has a great track record of fighting back from its lows and taking punches when down." "Today, crypto touches less than 5% of total internet users with significant headroom for application led adoption." "Crypto today has 200 million holders, but around 10 million monthly active wallets using apps," he added.
Investors have been pulling billions of dollars of funds off Binance amid growing scrutiny over the crypto exchange's reserves. On Tuesday afternoon, more than $6.6 billion in crypto had left the exchange over a 24-hour period, according to Nansen. This has investors spooked about the health of Binance in the wake of former competitor FTX's spectacular downfall, which ended Tuesday with CEO Sam Bankman-Fried's arrest and indictment . It remains to be see how wide the damage done by FTX spreads in the crypto market. Clara Medalie, research director at crypto data firm Kaiko, said liquidity on Binance has stayed stable and bitcoin's market depth is holding steady.
Bernstein has sifted through the various sectors of the crypto industry and identified winners and losers for 2022. Crypto suffered the added handicap of the financial contagion from the collapse of Terra in the first half of the year and FTX currently. Binance, which operates in a regulatory gray zone, will eventually become the "global consolidator" of smaller off-shore exchanges, Bernstein said. While FTX taught investors about the risks of storing crypto holdings with centralized entities, revelations in the stablecoin sector went the other way around. Solana, on the other hand, took a hit, stained by the fallout of FTX, a big and early backer of Solana.
Cryptocurrencies were under pressure for a second day Wednesday as the market digested the fallout of Binance's planned bailout of FTX. The Solana token continued its slide. "This is an adverse event for the Solana ecosystem in the short run. Further, given FTX/Alameda's balance sheet situation, there may be near term pressure on its Solana holdings, as the situation resolves." The crypto market briefly spiked on Tuesday after Bankman-Fried, also known as SPF, announced that Binance will acquire its non-U.S. operations but plummeted shortly after.
Things are looking up for crypto after bitcoin and ether finally climbed enough to post gains for October. Prices were unusually flat for most of the month, but several investors have interpreted that as stability and resilience. Still, investors say that while it may be too early to call a bottom, recovery is in sight. McClurg also a highlighted a recent move of $940 million in bitcoin investors removed from exchanges, calling it a typically bullish signal and an indicator that people are saving their bitcoin rather than selling it. While the central bank continues to dominate investors' attention, the case for bitcoin continues develop for other market participants.
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