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China on Friday kept its main benchmark lending rates unchanged at the monthly fixing. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said it would keep the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.35%, as well as the five-year LPR at 3.85%. The one-year LPR affects corporate and most household loans in China, while the five-year LPR acts as a benchmark for mortgage rates. Urban jobless rate rose to a six-month high, while year-on-year home prices fell at their fastest pace in nine years. Bank of America lowered their forecast for China's 2024 GDP growth to 4.8%, and Citigroup trimmed their projection to 4.7%.
Organizations: Reuters, People's Bank of China, Bank of America, Citigroup Locations: People's Republic of China, China
And yet an unusual air of uncertainty overhangs this week's meeting: It’s unclear just how large the Fed’s rate cut will be. Wall Street traders and some economists foresee a growing likelihood that the central bank will announce a larger-than-usual half-point cut. Many analysts foresee a more typical quarter-point rate cut. This week's move is expected to be only the first in a series of Fed rate cuts that will extend into 2025. Over time, Fed rate cuts should lower borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, as well as for business loans.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Jerome Powell, , Powell, Jackson, Freddie Mac Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Companies, Associated Press Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Punit Paranjpe | Afp | Getty ImagesIndia can achieve sustainable economic growth of up to 8% over the medium term, according to the country's central bank governor. The figures have ratcheted up pressure on the central bank to launch its own rate-cutting cycle sooner rather than later. Shaktikanta Das, governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), speaks during the Global Fintech Fest 2024 in Mumbai, India, on August 28, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesIt comes as major central banks have started to ease monetary policy in recent months, including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank. Women (silhouetted) walk past Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo displayed at Global Fintech Fest exhibition in Mumbai.
Persons: Punit Paranjpe, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Shaktikanta Das, Das, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Afp, Getty, Reserve Bank of India, International Monetary Fund, Nurphoto, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, The U.S . Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of India, Global Locations: Mumbai, India, Japan, Germany, U.S, China
Washington CNN —It’s a pivotal week for the US economy, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Fed officials and investors have long anticipated that borrowing costs would come down in 2024 — at some point — according to their economic forecasts. But nine months in, rate cuts still haven’t happened, drenching Wall Street’s parade and leaving US consumers squeezed by elevated interest rates. Here’s why the Fed didn’t cut soonerIt’s simple: The Fed didn’t cut interest rates sooner because it could have reignited inflation or left it stuck above the central bank’s target. Bond yields, which move in anticipation of the Fed’ decisions on rates, have come down over the past several weeks based on signs encouraging the Fed to cut rates, such as weaker-than-expected employment data and cooling inflation.
Persons: Washington CNN — It’s, it’s, ” Oscar Muñoz, ” Muñoz, Jerome Powell, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, “ Jerome Powell’s, ” Philipp Carlsson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wall, TD Securities, CNN, Kansas City, Capitol, White, Boston Consulting Group Locations: , Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Kevin Dietsch | Getty ImagesA flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. Elsewhere, Brazil's central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024. The central bank delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years at the start of August.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Kevin Dietsch, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, David Volpe, Volpe, 25bps, Wilson Ferrarezi, BOE, Ruben Segura Cayuela Organizations: Federal Reserves, Washington , D.C, Federal, Traders, The Bank of England, Norway's Norges Bank, South Africa's, Bank, Bank of Japan, Morgan Asset Management, European, Bank of England, ECB, Emerald Asset Management, Banco Central, TS Lombard, Central Bank of, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Brazil's, Brazil, Central Bank of Brazil, Brasilia, South Africa, Norway, Japan
But what appeared to garner a lot more attention was the 0.3% monthly rise of the core CPI gauge, which excludes food and energy. The higher-than-expected rise in core inflation will likely cause central bank officials to proceed more carefully when deciding whether to cut interest rates and by how much. On Tuesday, traders were pricing in a 34% chance the Fed would cut rates by a half point. But after the CPI data was released Wednesday morning, traders priced in a 15% chance that would happen. Wednesday’s market moves are a stark contrast to Monday’s, when the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all closed 1.2% higher.
Persons: clamoring, Dow Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq Locations: New York
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was nearly 2 basis points lower at 3.625%, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points at 3.586%. Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of U.S. inflation data for clues on the size of a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. The reports come ahead of the Fed's Sept 17-18 meeting, with traders widely expecting a rate cut. Others have described such a move as one that would be "very dangerous" for markets, pushing instead for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate cut instead. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with 33% expecting a 50-basis-point rate reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: U.S
Russian banks are urging the country's central bank to boost yuan liquidity amid shortages. But Russia's central bank is advising lenders to limit yuan-denominated loans. The Russian central bank said currency swaps are a short-term, not a long-term solution to yuan supply. But Russia's central bank is passing the buck back to the country's banks. In a report published on Friday, Russia's central bank advised lenders to limit the issuance of yuan-denominated loans.
Persons: Organizations: Service, Central Bank of Russia, Business Locations: Russian, Russia's
Dow falls by more than 600 points as September turns ugly
  + stars: | 2024-09-03 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN —Wall Street kicked off the month of September with a bust, after a disappointing economic report dragged down the Dow by 626 points, or 1.5%, Tuesday afternoon. Traders were already jittery ahead of a big month of economic news, from Friday’s key jobs report to next week’s inflation readings and then the long-awaited rate cut from the Fed mid-month. Investors were reacting to a weaker-than-expected jobs report that underscored fears that the Fed had mishandled inflation and pushed the economy right into a recession. Friday’s jobs report is arguably the most important piece of economic data that central bank officials will have to parse before their monetary policy meeting on September 17-18. International benchmark Brent fell to $73.70 a barrel and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate closed at just above $70 a barrel.
Persons: , Mark Hamrick, Brent Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Dow, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Traders, Nasdaq, Investors, Fed, Oil, OPEC, West Texas Locations: New York, stoke, payrolls, Libya
Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.
Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S
Joe Raedle | Getty ImagesThe president has no direct control over interest ratesAs it stands, the president exerts no direct control over interest rates. The Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and it operates independently of the White House. Last month, Trump said that if elected he would "bring interest rates way down." Now, however, Trump has cautioned against the Fed lowering rates shortly before the presidential election in November. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates."
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Raedle, Brett House, Trump, Fed Trump, Jerome Powell, Trump's, reappoint Powell, Powell, Greg McBride, Wells Fargo Organizations: Federal Reserve, White, Fed, Columbia Business School, Reserve Act, Republican, National Association of Black Journalists, Markets, U.S, Bloomberg Businessweek, Fox Business, Barclays Locations: Lago, Palm Beach , Florida, Chicago
In just a few short days, markets have taken some of the urgency off the table for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. Earlier in the week, there were even some calls for an emergency intermeeting rate cut. At the least, markets figured the Fed was a near-certainty to reduce benchmark rates by at least a half percentage point. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has been one of the loudest voices for aggressive Fed action, calling Monday for an emergency cut . The Fed has been holding its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for more than a year.
Persons: we've, Steven Wieting, Wieting, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jerome Powell, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, Citi Wealth, Labor Department
Meanwhile, the yen strengthened 0.6% to 146 against the US dollar, after losing nearly 2% on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. But those fears, as well as a further jump in the value of the yen, are still haunting the market. The volatility in the yen, which was at the heart of recent market turmoil, remains elevated, he added. On Monday, the Nikkei plummeted by the most since 1987, sparking a broader global market sell-off. The narrowing of the interest rate differentials, which had enabled the yen carry trade, could push the yen higher, Kuptiskevich added.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Germany’s DAX, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, , Stephen Innes, Alex Kuptsikevich, Masamichi Adachi, Innes, Taiwan’s Taiex, Hang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, CAC, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, FxPro, Federal, Fed, UBS, UBS Chief Investment, Kospi, Hang Seng Locations: Hong Kong, Europe, Japan, unwind
Hong Kong CNN —Asian markets made solid gains Wednesday, with Japanese shares reversing early losses after a central bank official played down the prospect of an immediate hike in interest rates. The gains follow days of volatility, which saw the Nikkei suffering Monday its biggest daily loss since 1987. “We won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable,” he was quoted as saying in a speech to executives in the northern Japanese city of Hakodate. The central bank has hiked interest rates twice this year in a bid to contain inflation. Decades of extremely low interest rates in Japan had seen many investors borrow cash cheaply there before converting it to other currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Kospi, Hong, Taiex, Uchida, , Olesya Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, US, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, South, Hakodate, , Japan, Europe, London
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but certain to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week. That’s why Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year. “There are still two more CPI releases before the September 18 [Fed] meeting, so we have to wait and see if the downtrend in inflation continues,” he told CNN. Fed officials have signaled that September will be when they finally lower interest rates. The difference between a few months for that initial cut “really doesn’t matter unless there’s some big shock that hits the economy in that time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.
Persons: Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman —, Blinder, what’s, Brandon Bell, Torsten Slok, Apollo, , Sean Snaith, it’s, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, ” University of Central, Locations: New York, ” University of Central Florida, Iran, Israel
London CNN —The International Monetary Fund has warned that stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer than expected, increasing fiscal and financial risks around the world. Persistently high prices for services — which include haircuts, hotels and restaurants — as well as escalating trade tensions are propping up inflation and raising the prospect that interest rates will stay high for a while yet, the IMF cautioned Tuesday in its latest World Economic Outlook. The warning highlights that the global economy is not yet in the clear when it comes to inflation, which explains the caution on the part of central banks in cutting interest rates. However, services inflation came in higher than expected. The agency blamed sticky services price inflation for “holding up progress” on reducing overall inflation.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, Bank of England, European Union, IMF Locations: , United States, China, India, E.T
However, central bank officials still want to see more progress before cutting interest rates, he noted. “The most recent inflation readings, however, have shown some modest further progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” he added. Fed officials expect to cut interest rates just once this year, according to their latest economic projections in June, compared to the three cuts they forecast in March. The annual PCE inflation rate registered at 2.6% in June, down slightly from 2.7% in May. Fed officials and most economists don’t see a recession this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Powell, Inflation, John Williams, ” Seema Shah Organizations: Washington CNN, Inflation, Committee, Financial, ” New York Fed, Congress, Fed, Asset Management Locations: India, United States
New York CNN —Inflation rates in Canada, the EU and Australia have popped higher in recent months. But that disconnect appears to be fading as inflation rates in the US continue to ease. The US also had a recent scare as inflation rates ticked higher. But after a year of the Fed holding interest rates steady at a 23-year high, inflation rates in the United States are once again declining. High inflation readings around the globe are concerning investors, José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.
Persons: , Brent Schutte, Schutte, José Torres, Torres, payrolls, Chewy, Keith Gill, Krystal Hur, Gill, Ryan Cohen, Jordan Valinsky, CSSE Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, EU, Federal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Interactive Brokers, CNN, Investors, Bank for International, BIS, Securities, Exchange, GameStop, Soul Entertainment, BBC, Sony Pictures, Walmart, Walgreens, Apollo Global Management, Sony, Netflix Locations: New York, Canada, Australia, United States, Europe, Redbox
Read previewIndian Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week secured a historic third term in office — and it's likely to intensify India's economic rivalry with China. Both India and China will be focused on manufacturingTo reach its goal, Modi's India will likely be going big on manufacturing. Companies are diversifying their operations outside China to avoid over-relying on one country, and India is aiming to be the new China. AdvertisementIndia's foreign policy toward China is unlikely to change following Modi's re-election, Ivan Lidarev, an Asian security scholar at King's College London, told Channel NewsAsia. "I think India has strived to position itself as a leader of the global south, and of course, China wants this position," added Lidarev.
Persons: , Narendra Modi, David Lubin, Modi, Xi Jinping, Bharat, Lubin, Raghuram Rajan, NPR's, Rajan, It's, William Lai's, Mao Ning, Ivan Lidarev Organizations: Service, London, Business, South, Central Bank of India, EV, King's College London, West Locations: , China, Asia, India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Delhi, Taiwan, Beijing
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. The growth is in part thanks to a shift in supply chains and investment flows as companies try to stop relying solely on China. India's stock markets tanked on the shock election results, with the benchmark Sensex index crashing over 5% in one day on Tuesday following the news. Despite the knee-jerk reaction, most analysts are optimistic about India's economic outlook given that Modi is still in charge. He said India will do better to capitalize on its services industry, especially since so many Indians are English speakers.
Persons: , Narendra Modi's, Modi, Atman Trivedi, China, Council's Trivedi, Vishnu Varathan, Raghuram Rajan, NPR's, It's, Rajan Organizations: Service, Indian, Business, Bharatiya Janata Party, , Atlantic, Asia Center, Centre, Monitoring, Coalition, Albright, Group, Mizuho Bank, United Nations Population Fund, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Central Bank of India, International Monetary Fund Locations: China, India, Communist China, Asia, Japan
European Central Bank officials are expected to cut interest rates this week for the first time in more than five years, drawing a line under the worst of the eurozone’s inflation crisis and easing the pressure on the region’s weak economy. But as policymakers in the eurozone move ahead, they leave behind their counterparts at the U.S. Federal Reserve, who are grappling with a seemingly more persistent inflation problem and warning that it will take longer to cut rates there. Lowering interest rates in Europe before the United States does would create a gap between the policies of two of the world’s largest and most influential central banks. to ease its policy could weaken the euro, while higher interest rates in the United States would continue to tighten financial conditions there and in other countries because of the global role of the dollar. can split from the Federal Reserve, while others say a divergence is not unusual and reflects two different economic situations.
Organizations: European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe, United States
Inflation rose about as expected in April, with markets on edge over when interest rates might start coming down, according to a measure released Friday that is followed closely by the Federal Reserve. Including the volatile food and energy category, PCE inflation was at 2.7% on an annual basis and 0.3% from a month ago. Goods prices rose 0.2% while services saw a 0.3% increase, continuing a normalization trend for an economy in which services and consumption provide much of the fuel. Personal income increased 0.3% on the month, matching the estimate, while spending rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate and off March's downwardly revised 0.7%. "The PCE Price Index didn't show much progress on inflation, but it didn't show any backsliding, either.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dan North, Jerome, Powell, I'm, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, John Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Labor Department, The Commerce Department, North America, Allianz Trade, Treasury, New York Fed
Klaas Knot, president of De Nederlandsche Bank NV, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Gandhinagar, India, on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said it would "soon" be time to ease monetary policy in the region, but cautioned that the process would need to be done slowly to keep inflation in check. "It can soon be appropriate to ease the currently restrictive monetary policy stance and gradually take our foot off the brake ... policy rates will slowly but gradually move into less restrictive levels," Knot, head of the central bank of the Netherlands, said at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London Tuesday. In a Reuters poll of 82 economists this week, all said they expected a June cut. Knot, usually known for his more hawkish stance, said Tuesday there had been "clear disinflation" since the peak above 10% in late 2022, particularly in goods inflation.
Persons: Klaas Knot Organizations: De Nederlandsche Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank Governing, Barclays, CEPR, Monetary, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters Locations: Gandhinagar, India, Netherlands, London
The Melbourne skyline is reflected in the Maribyrnong River in the early morning light on April 18, 2023. Asia-Pacific markets were range bound on Tuesday as investors assess comments from the European Central Bank officials signaling that rate cuts may be on the horizon for the world's largest economic bloc. Japan's Nikkei 225 also was trading close to the flatline, with the broad based Topix also near flat. In a speech Monday, Olli Rehn, ECB governing council member and head of Finland's central bank, stressed inflation in the euro area was falling in a "sustained way." Inflation in the euro zone held steady at 2.4% in April, marking the seventh straight month it has been below 3%, despite a slight rebound in December.
Persons: Kospi, Olli Rehn Organizations: European Central Bank, Nikkei Locations: Melbourne, Maribyrnong, Asia, Pacific, Australia
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