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It’s also a sign of confidence from Fed officials that inflation has come under control just enough to comfortably dial back policy. Typically, in the lead-up to a Fed policy decision, Wall Street and economists are in alignment on what to expect. But investors’ wagers for a half-point cut ramped up on Monday; and as of Tuesday afternoon, federal funds futures contracts were pricing in a 63% chance of a jumbo rate cut, up from around 30% on Thursday, according to the CME Group. As inflation skyrocketed in 2021 and 2022, American employers pumped out jobs and the unemployment rate declined to half-century lows. The Fed eventually responded to the country’s inflation problem with its bitter medicine of high interest rates.
Persons: It’s, Christopher Waller, Elizabeth Warren, Robert Kaplan, Bill Dudley, , Powell, ” Gregory Daco, , ” Julia Hermann Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Street, CME, Fed, Democratic, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Former New York, Bloomberg, Dow, Labor, New York Life Investments, CNN
But a series of data points showing worsening economic conditions has made some analysts believe a 0.5% cut is more likely — and perhaps even necessary. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Fed Chair Jay Powell said in a speech last month. “A (0.5%) cut is usually done in emergencies,” like the Covid-19 pandemic, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s financial group. Mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest level since February 2023, while auto loan rates are also falling. A 0.5% cut would more directly affect rates tied to the fed funds rate, including credit cards, home equity lines of credit and small-business loans.
Persons: Steve Liesman, Jay Powell, Bill Dudley, ” Dudley, Preston Mui, Mui, , , Mark Zandi, Greg McBride, ” McBride Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Wall, Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg News, Fed, Bankrate Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America
Washington CNN —It’s a pivotal week for the US economy, with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Fed officials and investors have long anticipated that borrowing costs would come down in 2024 — at some point — according to their economic forecasts. But nine months in, rate cuts still haven’t happened, drenching Wall Street’s parade and leaving US consumers squeezed by elevated interest rates. Here’s why the Fed didn’t cut soonerIt’s simple: The Fed didn’t cut interest rates sooner because it could have reignited inflation or left it stuck above the central bank’s target. Bond yields, which move in anticipation of the Fed’ decisions on rates, have come down over the past several weeks based on signs encouraging the Fed to cut rates, such as weaker-than-expected employment data and cooling inflation.
Persons: Washington CNN — It’s, it’s, ” Oscar Muñoz, ” Muñoz, Jerome Powell, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, “ Jerome Powell’s, ” Philipp Carlsson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Wall, TD Securities, CNN, Kansas City, Capitol, White, Boston Consulting Group Locations: , Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Mortgage rates fall to lowest level since February 2023
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Washington CNN —Mortgage rates fell this week to the lowest point since February 2023, in a welcome sign for Americans grappling with a tough housing market. The standard, 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.20% in the week ended September 12, mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac said Thursday. Mortgage rates started to drop early last month on news affirming lower interest rates in the future, specifically after a weaker-than-expected jobs report for July, and have gradually edged lower since. “Mortgage rates have fallen more than half a percent over the last six weeks and are at their lowest level since February 2023,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a release. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its action do influence them through movements in bond yields.
Persons: Freddie Mac, ” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, that’s, Lawrence Yun Organizations: Washington CNN —, , Federal Reserve, Treasury, Las, P Global, Apple, Fed, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York City, San Diego, Las Vegas, America, Los Angeles, Miami
London CNN —The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates Thursday, lowering borrowing costs for the second time in recent months as inflation slows and Europe’s economy stumbles. The ECB cut rates for the first time in five years in June, but kept them unchanged at its last meeting in July. However, it marginally downgraded the outlook for economic growth in the eurozone to 0.8%, from 0.9% projected in June. “Financing conditions remain restrictive, and economic activity is still subdued, reflecting weak private consumption and investment,” the ECB said. Earlier this week, former ECB chief Mario Draghi said in a report that slowing economic growth and productivity present an “existential challenge” to Europe.
Persons: Bert Colijn, Christine Lagarde’s, Mario Draghi, Draghi Organizations: London CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Olympic, Paralympic Games, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, , ING Locations: Germany, Paris, Europe, United States, China, EU
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB likely to reduce rates this month — but no further cuts expected in 2024, economist saysCyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, discusses the outlook for Germany’s economy and looks ahead to the European Central Bank’s forthcoming meeting.
Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia Organizations: ECB, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Central Locations: Hamburg
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Friday backed an interest rate cut at the upcoming central bank policy meeting in less than two weeks, and indicated he’d be open to a substantial reduction if necessary. Other policymakers recently have advocated easing policy soon, but this is one of the clearest indications it will happen at the Sept. 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. “Determining the pace of rate cuts and ultimately the total reduction in the policy rate are decisions that lie in the future,” Waller added. With inflation and employment near our longer-run goals and the labor market moderating, it is likely that a series of reductions will be appropriate,” he said. Futures market pricing following the jobs report tilted toward a greater likelihood of a quarter percentage point rate reduction this month.
Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, Waller, verbiage, Jerome Powell, , nonfarm, Dow Jones, Organizations: Federal, Council, Foreign Relations, Labor Department, Dow Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell: We will do everything we can to support a strong labor marketFederal Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the central bank’s annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
That’s precisely why the Fed is poised to cut interest rates in September for the first time since 2020. Therein lies the one question on everyone’s mind: How aggressively will the Fed ultimately cut rates? A high threshold for jumbo rate cutsThe Fed makes its decisions on interest rates consistent with what’s happening in the economy. Fed officials have mostly signaled that they’re finally ready to cut rates, but some have still expressed some hesitance. But, for now, there’s no emergency demanding the Fed cut rates aggressively next month, or any time later in the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, pare, Price, Powell, “ They’re, ” Tani Fukui, they’re, Raphael Bostic, ” Powell, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, That’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Labor Department, Kansas City Fed, Fed, Traders, MetLife Investment Management, CNN, Atlanta Fed, Citi, Oxford Economics Locations: Unemployment, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell: Less upside risks to inflation, more downside risks to employmentFederal Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the central bank’s annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
And so does the broader US economy: Economic growth this year has been solid and the Atlanta Fed is projecting that growth hasn’t slipped. “The labor market is cooling, but it’s not getting soft. A slowing job market is also playing a role in nudging the Fed to ease borrowing costs. Translation: The recent weakness in the job market could result in American shoppers curbing their spending more than expected. A big question mark is the future of America’s job market, which is a key driver of the US economy.
Persons: Washington CNN —, , Jerome Powell, , “ Powell, Seema Shah, hasn’t, ” Tom Porcelli, it’s, Powell, cooldown, ” Powell, aren’t, they’re, , “ There’s, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Markets, Asset Management, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, CNN, Walmart, America’s Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, nudging
Vance looks to turn tables on Walz
  + stars: | 2024-08-11 | by ( Eric Bradner | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
“Tim Walz gave his wife a nice, firm Midwestern handshake, and then tried to sort of awkwardly correct for it,” Vance said. Vance said “of course” he acknowledges the families of Harris and Buttigieg, and argued his comments were taken out of context. The Ohio senator said Republicans’ goal is to contrast the policies Trump stood for during his term in office with those of the Biden-Harris administration. “I think all President Trump was saying was that look, it’s kind of weird that you have so many bureaucrats making so many important decisions. “And I think that’s what President Trump was getting at.
Persons: Vance, Tim Walz, CNN’s Dana Bash, Walz, Kamala Harris, he’d, “ Tim Walz, ” Vance, , , Dana, doesn’t, Walz “, Walz —, Harris, , Donald Trump, Pete Buttigieg, Buttigieg, Trump, Joe Biden’s, , Joe Biden, Harris “, Joe Biden doesn’t, Walz misspoke —, I’m, Tim Walz’s, “ It’s, Doug Julin, CNN’s Laura Coates, Julin, “ I’m, Tim Walz didn’t, Kate Cox, … You’ve, Harris –, India – Vance, “ She’s, hasn’t Organizations: CNN, Republican, Democratic, MSNBC, Union, Transportation, Trump, Biden, Biden White, Army National Guard, Congress, Federal, National Association of Black Journalists Locations: Minnesota, Ohio, Philadelphia, “ State, United States, Milwaukee, Italy, Afghanistan, Iraq, Texas, Jamaica, India
Gross domestic product for the second quarter of this year came in better than expected, with the economy growing at an annualized rate close to 3%. Republicans and DemocratsIt’s not fair to lay all the blame for the state of the economy on one party when both have contributed. While neither can be fully blamed for the pandemic itself, their handling of it has had significant ramifications for the economy. Oh, here’s an idea, let’s just leave interest rates really high.” That’s not to say that politicians necessarily wanted to make Americans’ lives more difficult either. Yet all the calculus they perform to determine what the ideal interest rate level is at any given point in time is complicated by fiscal spending that’s entirely out of their control.
Persons: Democrats It’s, Trump, Biden, , It’s, , Massachusetts Democratic Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Jerome Powell “, “ He’s, let’s, ” That’s, don’t, they’ve, They’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Gross, Republicans, Democrats, MIT, State, , Massachusetts Democratic, Fed Locations: New York, Ukraine, , Massachusetts
Hong Kong CNN —Asian markets made solid gains Wednesday, with Japanese shares reversing early losses after a central bank official played down the prospect of an immediate hike in interest rates. The gains follow days of volatility, which saw the Nikkei suffering Monday its biggest daily loss since 1987. “We won’t raise interest rates when financial markets are unstable,” he was quoted as saying in a speech to executives in the northern Japanese city of Hakodate. The central bank has hiked interest rates twice this year in a bid to contain inflation. Decades of extremely low interest rates in Japan had seen many investors borrow cash cheaply there before converting it to other currencies to invest in higher-yielding assets.
Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Kospi, Hong, Taiex, Uchida, , Olesya Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, US, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: Hong Kong, Asia, South, Hakodate, , Japan, Europe, London
On Friday, a report on American jobs showed a considerable slowdown in hiring, prompting a sell-off in U.S. markets. The Fed is expected to start cutting rates, which are at a more-than-two-decade high, later this year. The currency’s rise spooked investors, some of whom feared a stronger yen would spell the end of a more-than-yearlong rally in Japanese stocks that had been driven by a weakened currency. A popular trade among some investors involved borrowing in yen, and then investing it in markets like the U.S. But as the strength of the dollar this year began to ebb, profits from that trade also started to reverse course.
Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Japan
Investors are increasingly hopeful that will push Federal Reserve officials to come to their rescue with an emergency rate cut. But if something comes up in between those meetings that changes their views on the ideal level for rates, officials can gather for an unscheduled “emergency” meeting. By doing two large emergency cuts in succession, Fed officials didn’t have to weigh whether their actions would unnecessarily cause Americans to panic. Before those cuts, the last time the Fed was promoted to do an emergency rate cut was in the thick of the Great Recession shortly after Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008. But he said he was “reluctantly” comfortable with an emergency cut since other central banks were doing it.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, there’s, Lehman Brothers, ” Charles Plosser, , , That’s, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, Plosser Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Chicago Fed, New York Times, Philadelphia Fed, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of England, San, Committee, Fed, Treasury Locations: New York
The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.
Persons: , July’s, , , Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American
It’s been a year since interest rates reached a two-decade high, but they may soon begin to reverse course. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday, while signaling that a cut is possible when policy-setting officials meet again in September. If interest rates are elevated for too long, they risk weakening the employment picture. The central bank uses interest rates to influence the broader economy. Home-equity lines of credit and adjustable-rate mortgages — which each carry variable interest rates — generally rise within two billing cycles after a change in the Fed’s rates.
Persons: It’s, ” Jonathan Smoke, that’s, Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, , “ Banks, Ken Tumin Organizations: Federal, “ Manufacturers, Cox Automotive, Treasury, Savings Vehicles Locations: Edmunds
Market volatility in Dane County, Wisconsin, a largely Democratic, college-educated part of a solidly purple state, boosted its difficulty score to 78 on NBC News’ index. Average homebuying difficulty in the U.S. overall ranks at 84, up from 54 in 2020. At the Republican National Convention earlier this month, giant screens flashed comparisons of average mortgage rates under the Trump and Biden administrations. But one Gwinnett County resident said softer demand isn’t keeping him up at night. For house hunters in Gwinnett County, Scott said, “that would make life a lot better.”
Persons: Dane, They’ve, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Biden, , Lisa Scott, Scott, Mannie Marte, Marte, who’s, Harry Truman, Harris Organizations: Democratic, NBC, Republican National Convention, Trump, Biden, Gwinnett, Private, Getty, Phoenix, Voters, Federal, Commerce Department Locations: Dane County , Wisconsin, Wisconsin, Dane, U.S, Gwinnett County , Georgia, Lawrenceville, Duluth, Georgia, Gwinnett, Lilburn, Atlanta, Marte, Reno, Washoe County, Erie, Maricopa County , Arizona, Gwinnett County
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but certain to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week. That’s why Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year. “There are still two more CPI releases before the September 18 [Fed] meeting, so we have to wait and see if the downtrend in inflation continues,” he told CNN. Fed officials have signaled that September will be when they finally lower interest rates. The difference between a few months for that initial cut “really doesn’t matter unless there’s some big shock that hits the economy in that time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.
Persons: Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman —, Blinder, what’s, Brandon Bell, Torsten Slok, Apollo, , Sean Snaith, it’s, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, ” University of Central, Locations: New York, ” University of Central Florida, Iran, Israel
Since Harris kicked off her presidential campaign, there’s been a string of good news for the US economy. Harris will have Biden’s mostly strong economy to run on. By June 2021, Biden’s sixth month in office, the nation’s inflation rate jumped to more than 5%. After the Federal Reserve hiked interest rate hikes to a 23-year high to stamp out inflation, the economy — eventually — started to run at a slower pace. The Biden administration canceled $168 billion in student loan debt for 4.8 million Americans.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, there’s, Biden’s, , hasn’t, Evan Vucci, Eros Hoagland, Getty, Lina Khan, Jonathan Kanter, Stocks Organizations: CNN, White House, House, Federal, Trump, Biden, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce Department, of Labor Statistics, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, AFL, National Labor Relations Board, United Auto Workers, Union, AP Relief, American, ARPA, Medicare, University of North, Hill, Apple, Google, Federal Trade Commission, Department, FTC, Activision, Big Tech, Justice Department, Fed Locations: Ukraine, Van Buren Township , Michigan, University of North Carolina, America, Valley, Silicon Valley
China’s central bank on Thursday cut a key interest rate, in Beijing’s second move this week to try to offset a weakening economy and a housing market crisis. The unexpected action came as stock markets fell sharply across most of Asia in early trading, in an echo of Wall Street’s sharp drop the day before. Market indexes were down 1 to 3 percent in Australia, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong. That could reflect a favorable response by investors to the central bank’s rate move, or a sign of intervention by the Chinese government, which plays an extensive role in the country’s stock markets. As markets opened in China on Thursday, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, reduced its interest rate for one-year loans to commercial banks to 2.3 percent, from 2.5 percent.
Organizations: People’s Bank of China Locations: Asia, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Shenzhen, China
Washington CNN —Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would not fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the former president wins the election in November, according to a Bloomberg interview published Tuesday. Powell, a registered Republican, was first tapped to helm the central bank by Trump in 2017. That still wouldn’t stop Trump from pushing to oust Powell before the Fed head’s term concludes in 2026. “He sued for reinstatement and even though he died while the litigation was pending, the Supreme Court still took up his case. It answers to Congress, not the US president, according to the law that established the central bank.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, he’d, Powell, Trump, , he’s, reappoint Powell, Powell isn’t, William Humphrey, Franklin Roosevelt, Organizations: Washington CNN, Republican, Bloomberg, Trump, Fed, Democratic, House, Federal Trade Commission, Brookings Institution, Fed’s, Governors
Inflation in Britain held steady in June as the Bank of England inches toward its first interest rate cut in years and economists pondered whether a global pop star helped keep services prices higher. Food inflation also slowed, with prices rising just 1.5 percent compared with a year ago. But the June inflation data came in slightly higher than expected. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, was expected to dip but remained at 3.5 percent in June. Traders reduced their bets on an August rate cut, giving it about a 35 percent chance.
Organizations: Bank of England, National Statistics, Traders Locations: Britain
London CNN —The International Monetary Fund has warned that stubborn inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer than expected, increasing fiscal and financial risks around the world. Persistently high prices for services — which include haircuts, hotels and restaurants — as well as escalating trade tensions are propping up inflation and raising the prospect that interest rates will stay high for a while yet, the IMF cautioned Tuesday in its latest World Economic Outlook. The warning highlights that the global economy is not yet in the clear when it comes to inflation, which explains the caution on the part of central banks in cutting interest rates. However, services inflation came in higher than expected. The agency blamed sticky services price inflation for “holding up progress” on reducing overall inflation.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: London CNN —, Monetary Fund, Bank of England, European Union, IMF Locations: , United States, China, India, E.T
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