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US stocks surged after the September jobs report exceeded expectations with 254,000 jobs added. Wage growth saw a resurgence, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% month-over-month. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Friday after the September jobs report blew past economist estimates. The chances of a 50 basis point cut plunged to 10% after the jobs report was released, compared to 53% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Another strong aspect of the jobs report was wage gains, according to Capital Economics.
Persons: , James Knightley, Knightley, Paul Ashworth Organizations: Service, ING, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics
This report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Over the years, the services sector of the Indian economy has grown to account for 45% of total exports, up from 30% a decade ago. The Indian government, meanwhile, has been eager to support the manufacturing sector in creating mass employment, a key economic and political challenge that the services sector alone hasn't been able to address. These companies also boast moats that make them unique compared to the large BPO firms of the last three decades. Perhaps it could also address some of the risks to employment created in the BPO sector from artificial intelligence.
Persons: hasn't, Cyient isn't, Peers, Larsen, Toubro's, Kunal Desai, Desai Organizations: Capital Economics, nab, Microsoft, Siemens, GIB Asset Management, CNBC Locations: India, London, Philippines, Mexico, Brazil, Poland, Malaysia
Oil prices rise on escalating attacks in the Middle East
  + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Storage tanks and oil processing facilities operate at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and terminal in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, on Oct. 1, 2018. Oil prices rose on Wednesday on fears conflict in the Middle East could turn into a wider war and disrupt oil supply from the key producing region after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel. Iran's oil output rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August, ANZ added. "Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil output, but an important consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia increases production if Iranian supplies were disrupted." "Any suggestion that production hikes will proceed could offset concerns of supply disruptions in the Middle East," ANZ's note said.
Persons: Brent, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joe Biden Organizations: U.S, West Texas, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ Research, ANZ, Israel, . Security, American Petroleum Institute Locations: Saudi, Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Tehran, OPEC, Russia, U.S
Workers at ports stretching from Maine to Texas went on strike early Tuesday in a dispute over wages and automation. So, the unpredictability of this issue here is really in play and it has the magnitude to really throw a giant wrench in global supply chains,” she added. Ocean supply chains have already been hit hard this year by conflict in the Red Sea, a lengthy drought affecting the Panama Canal and the Baltimore bridge collapse. You might say it is a perfect storm, but it is also a really good negotiating position for those people wanting a strike,” Sand said. “Frequent shocks to supply chains in recent years have left producers more attuned to the risks of running low inventories,” Saunders said on Sept. 25.
Persons: ” Lisa DeNight, Newmark, CNBC’s, DeNight, Peter Sand, Sand, ” Sand, — “, , Maersk, Bradley Saunders, Joe Biden, Biden, Taft, Hartley, ” Saunders Organizations: U.S, Workers, International Longshoremen’s Association, ILA, United States Maritime Alliance, Maersk, North America Economist, Capital Economics Locations: East, Gulf, Maine, Texas, U.S, Red, Panama, Baltimore, Gulf Coast, Europe, Asia, Danish, East Coast
Port of Miami dockworkers strike near the port entrance and demand a new labor contract, on October 1, 2024 in Miami, Florida. One rule of thumb is that for each strike day, it takes nearly a week to get ports operating at normal levels. watch now"We think fears around the potential economic impacts are overdone," wrote Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics. "Frequent shocks to supply chains in recent years have left producers more attuned to the risks of running low inventories. "There is little chance that the administration would risk jeopardizing its recent economic successes less than two months before a tightly-contested election," he said.
Persons: Giorgio Viera, Joe Biden, Taft, Hartley, Joseph Brusuelas, Andrew Hollenhorst, Bradley Saunders, Saunders, there's Organizations: Afp, Getty, International Longshoreman's Association, U.S . Maritime Alliance, Labor, RSM, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Citigroup, New, New York Fed, Capital Economics, ILA Locations: Miami, Miami , Florida, East, Gulf, U.S, United States, West Coast, New York, North America
A container ship departs the Port of Newark for the Atlantic Ocean on September 30, 2024 seen from New York City. Workers at ports stretching from Maine to Texas went on strike early Tuesday in a dispute over wages and automation. Workers picket outside of the APM container terminal at the Port of Newark in Newark, New Jersey, US, on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. You might say it is a perfect storm, but it is also a really good negotiating position for those people wanting a strike," Sand said. Cranes used for shipping containers rise from the Port of Newark on September 30, 2024 in New York City.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Lisa DeNight, Newmark, CNBC's, DeNight, Peter Sand, Sand, Maersk, Bradley Saunders, Joe Biden, Biden, Taft, Hartley Organizations: Getty, U.S, Workers, International Longshoremen's Association, ILA, United States Maritime Alliance, " Workers, APM, Port, Bloomberg, Maersk, North America Economist, Capital Economics Locations: Port, Newark, New York City, East, Gulf, Maine, Texas, U.S, Red, Panama, Baltimore, Gulf Coast, Europe, Asia, Newark , New Jersey, US, Danish, East Coast
NEBATIEH, LEBANON - SEPTEMBER 28: Smoke rises after Israeli attacks over Shebaa town of Nabatieh province on September 28, 2024. The Israeli air and artillery forces are supporting the offensive, the IDF said. Hezbollah said that claims that Israel had entered Lebanon are "false," reporting no "direct ground clashes," according to a Google-translated statement. Historically sensitive to geopolitical tremors, oil prices have resisted long-term spikes, reined in by the specter of waning global demand and potential supply increases. On its own, this escalation would point to higher oil prices and inflation.
Persons: Ramiz Dallah, Jalaa Marey, Hassan Nasrallah, Yoav Gallant, Lloyd Austin, Israel, Amir Yaron, specter Organizations: Getty Images, Anadolu, Getty, Israel, Israel's Defense Forces, White House, NBC, Brent, Afp, Jewish, Palestinian, Hamas, Israeli, U.S, United Nations, Reuters, Capital, Gulf Cooperation Council Locations: NEBATIEH, LEBANON, Shebaa, Nabatieh, Anadolu, Iran, Lebanon, Israel, London, Galilee, Gaza, Lebanese, Beirut's, U.S, Saudi Arabia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Japanese yen will continue to strengthen, Capital Economics saysMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific for Capital Economics, discusses Japan's incoming Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and the country's economic outlook.
Persons: Marcel Thieliant, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Capital Economics Locations: Asia, Pacific
Sky-high insurance premiums and extreme weather have already prompted some Floridians to move. But the storm calls into focus an already difficult part of living in Florida: home insurance. According to an analysis of US Census data by NBC News, around 18% of homeowners in Florida are without home insurance. AdvertisementThe amount of damage a storm causes typically affects insurance premiums. The Florida Office of Insurance Regulation estimated Hurricane Idalia — which made landfall in Florida as a Category 4 in 2023 — totaled more than $309.5 million in losses.
Persons: Helene, , Floridians, John, Natalia, Hurricane Idalia, Mark Friedlander Organizations: Service, National Hurricane Center, NBC News, USA, California ., Sunshine State, Capital Economics, Business, Hurricanes, Dade, Insurance, Insurance Information Institute, Tampa Bay Times Locations: Florida, Florida , Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, California, California . Florida, Insurify, Dell Prairie , Wisconsin, Plantation , Florida, Fort Lauderdale, Florida's panhandle, Miami, Dade County, Broward County, Leon County, Tallahassee
Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida Thursday, leaving less damage than initially feared. Sky-high insurance premiums and extreme weather have already prompted some Floridians to move. Multiple home insurance providers have left the state entirely, and longtime Floridians have started to get priced out of coastal towns. According to an analysis of US Census data by NBC News, around 18% of homeowners in Florida are without home insurance. AdvertisementThe amount of damage a storm causes typically affects insurance premiums.
Persons: Helene, , Floridians, John, Natalia, Hurricane Idalia, Mark Friedlander Organizations: Service, National Hurricane Center, NBC News, USA, California ., Sunshine State, Capital Economics, Business, Hurricanes, Dade, Insurance, Insurance Information Institute, Tampa Bay Times Locations: Florida, Florida , Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, California, California . Florida, Insurify, Dell Prairie , Wisconsin, Plantation , Florida, Fort Lauderdale, Florida's panhandle, Miami, Dade County, Broward County, Leon County, Tallahassee
A view of the headquarters of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), before a press conference in Zurich, Switzerland, March 21, 2024. It was the first major Western central bank to reduce interest rates back in March. Domestically, Swiss inflation remains subdued, with the latest headline print pointing to a 1.1% annual increase in August. Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term," it added. He added that the central bank may nevertheless have to reduce rates again to retain inflation in the 0-2% target range.
Persons: exacerbation, Swissmem, SNB, Kyle Chapman, Chapman, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Adrian Prettejohn, Prettejohn Organizations: Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Swiss, U.S ., ING, Ballinger Group, Reuters, Capital Economics Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after falling in the previous session as signs of higher fuel demand and falling stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest oil user, offset concerns over demand elsewhere, particularly in China. Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after falling in the previous session as signs of higher fuel demand and falling stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest oil user, offset concerns over demand elsewhere, particularly in China. Oil prices slumped over 2% on Wednesday as worries over supply disruptions in Libya eased and demand concerns continued despite China's latest stimulus plans. Oil prices initially rose following the stimulus announcement from the world's biggest oil importer. "Any revival in Libyan production would return to a market that is already beset by concerns of weak demand in the U.S. and China," ANZ Research said.
Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, ANZ Research, Energy Information Administration Locations: U.S, China, Libya, United States
It represents the major shipping lines, all of which are foreign-owned, as well as terminal operators and port authorities. Depending on duration, a strike could mean shortages of consumer and industrial goods, possibly driving up prices again. That labor peace has helped them capture market share from West Coast ports that have historically had more contentious labor relations. But he said the shipping lines appear unwilling to pay what it takes this time. The shipping lines realize the problem with having Biden order the union back to work, said Tirschwell.
Persons: Luke Sharrett, Patrick Anderson, , USMX, Harold Daggett, John McCown, containerization, Brendan Smialowski, Peter Tirschwell, , Republican Donald Trump, ” Tirschwell, hasn’t, Jonathan Gold, ” Gold, Biden, Joe Biden, Taft, Hartley, George W, Bush, Bradley Saunders, Daggett, ’ ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Maritime Association, International Longshoremen’s Association, BMW, Port, Bloomberg, Getty, ILA, Anderson Economic Group, , P Global Market Intelligence, Federal Maritime Administration, Republican, National Retail Federation, North, Capital Economics, United Auto Workers Locations: New York, Maine, Texas, East Coast, Gulf, Gulf Coast, of New York, New Jersey, Port Wilmington, Delaware, Port, Baltimore, Port of Charleston, South Carolina, Charleston , South Carolina, West Coast, Michigan, Port of Baltimore, Baltimore , Maryland, AFP, East, North American
Incoming President Subianto has promised to continue the charge toward making Indonesia a high-income economy. Economic reforms passed through by the outgoing president will make the achieving Indonesia's grand vision easier. "Widodo put in place a bunch of economic reforms, the most noticeable being making it easier to hire and fire new workers. Indrawati hopes to avoid "the middle-income trap" — an economic development situation where growing economies stagnate at middle-income levels and are unable to advance to the ranks of high-income countries. Major policy reforms, she believes, will help Indonesia sidestep that.
Persons: Sri Mulyani Indrawati, CNBC's, Joko Widodo, Prabowo Subianto, Subianto, Widodo, Gareth Leather, Indrawati Organizations: Afp, Getty, country's Finance, International Monetary Fund, Defense, Capital Economics, CNBC, Lowy Institute Locations: Jakarta, Indonesia, Washington, Australian, China, Asia
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe exodus is mainly being driven by higher housing costs, a higher cost of living, and souring attitudes toward the influx of people who moved to Florida in recent years. Property insurance costs in the state are rising at the fastest pace in 20 years, according to Capital Economics. According to Cindy, her home insurance costs around $8,000 a year. The cost of living has also risen, in part due to rising housing costs and more people living in the city.
Persons: , who's, Cindy, isn't, Rafael Corrales, Corrales, Kevin, hadn't, it's, Bill McBride, McBride, That's, It's, Darryl Fairweather, Redfin, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Business, Tampa —, Capital Economics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington DC, Florida Department of Law, Sunshine State Locations: Florida, Sunshine, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, South Florida, Miami, St, Pete, Seattle, New York, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Petersburg, Clearwater, Florida's
Historically, a rate cut has been a signal for central banks in emerging markets, like India, to follow by easing monetary policy in their regions. The latest data shows that the inflation rate appears to be heading in the wrong direction in India. The headline inflation rate rose in August to 3.65% compared to 3.6% in the previous month. Instead, markets have simply hit snooze on a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India for the moment. If there's no global recession, a risk-on sentiment will likely help push up emerging market equities in the medium term after the U.S. central bank cuts rates.
Persons: Shah, Mahesh Nandurkar, Surendra Goyal, CNBC's, BofA, Banks Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank, Capital Economics, India, greenback, Federal Reserve, Jefferies, Bank of America, Citi, India Research, Bank Locations: India, U.S
It means that, in aggregate, the average prices of goods and services are rising, just more slowly. Where prices have deflatedFor example, prices have declined by about 5% for furniture and bedding and 3% for appliances since August 2023, according to CPI data. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Airline fares have declined about 1% over the past year, according to CPI data. Grocery prices have fallen for items such as apples, potatoes, ham, coffee, rice, seafood and bananas, according to CPI data.
Persons: Stephen Brown, it's, Sarah House, They've, women's outerwear, Brown Organizations: North, Capital Economics, Finance, Social Security, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, International Air Transport Association Locations: U.S, North America, Wells Fargo, China
"We'd expect inflation to continue to subside," though with "some ups and downs" in the data from month to month, House said. Housing inflation is falling but still highInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021. Shelter is largest component of the CPI, and therefore has an outsized effect on inflation readings. Such data quirks mask positive news in the real-time rental market, which has seen minimal inflation for about two years, economists said. However, shelter CPI inflation has appeared to defy gravity lately: It increased on a monthly basis for two consecutive months, from 0.2% in June to 0.4% in July, and then to 0.5% in August.
Persons: Grace Cary, Sarah House, It's, hasn't, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Department of Labor, North, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, Finance, CPI, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The fund's investments in domestic infrastructure and real estate development grew 15% year-on-year to 233 billion riyals, while its foreign investments increased 14% to 586 billion riyals. The days of viewing Saudi Arabia as a mere financial reservoir are ending," Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, told CNBC. watch nowSaudi Arabia's recently-updated Investment Law seeks to attract more foreign investment as well — and it's set itself a lofty goal of $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030. Spurring greater foreign buy-in "should also ease the burden that has recently been placed on the Public Investment Fund to offset the weaker foreign investment into the Kingdom," he added.
Persons: Tarik Solomon, , Solomon, James Swanston, We've, Swanston Organizations: Getty Images, Public Investment Fund, Saudi, American Chamber of Commerce, CNBC, Eastern, Saudi Arabia's, Gulf, Capital Economics Locations: Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Getty Images Saudi Arabia, Saudi, James Swanston , Middle East, Africa
Lower interest rates are "generally positive for stocks," said Marguerita Cheng, a CFP and chief executive of Blue Ocean Global Wealth, based in Gaithersburg, Maryland. Considerations for cash, bonds and stocksFalling interest rates generally means investors can expect lower returns on their "safer" money, advisors said. High interest rates have meant investors enjoyed fairly lofty returns on these lower-risk holdings. Winnie Sun co-founder and managing director of Sun Group Wealth PartnersHowever, such returns are expected to fall alongside declining interest rates, advisors said. "They'll be crying in six months when interest rates are a lot lower," she said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Harnik, Winnie Sun, Lee Baker, Powell, Stephen Brown, Marguerita Cheng, Sun, Powell didn't, Ted Jenkin, Carolyn McClanahan Organizations: Getty, Sun Group Wealth Partners, Financial Advisors, Finance, North, Capital Economics, Blue, Sun Group Wealth, Planning Partners Locations: Irvine , California, Atlanta, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, North America, Gaithersburg , Maryland, Jacksonville , Florida
The rise in violent weather events over the past few years are driving a decline in real estate values in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, according to a recent note from Capital Economics. Related storiesAccording to data from MSCI, insurance costs in Florida have more than doubled from less than 2% of income receivable in 2017 to 4.5% at the end of 2023. And those higher costs have ultimately helped drag down property values in impacted regions, especially in the multifamily sector. Capital EconomicsBut there has been a sign of hope in that the rate of growth in insurance costs appears to have peaked, according to Pattison. But she says the ongoing trend of violent weather could still exacerbate the issue in the future, further driving real estate values down in the most impacted regions.
Persons: Imogen Pattison, Beryl —, Karen Clark, they're, Pattison, CBRE Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Business Locations: Texas , Florida, Louisiana, MSCI, Florida, multifamily, Florida , Texas
US stocks fell after a weak July jobs report raised concerns of a slowing economy. The US added 114,000 jobs in July, below estimates of 175,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%. Intel and Amazon's weak earnings reports also contributed to Friday's stock market decline. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly rose to 4.3% from 4.1%, its highest level since October 2021. The 10-Year US Treasury yield plunged nearly 20 basis points to a 2024 low of 3.80% immediately after the jobs report was released.
Persons: , Stephen Brown Organizations: Intel, Service, Treasury, Capital Economics, Federal, CME, Amazon Locations: payrolls
Sellers are quickly "losing their grip" on the housing market, according to Capital Economics. That's because home prices are cooling, thanks to more inventory staying on the market. Still, the research firm is forecasting a 5% surge in home prices by the end of the year. That's because higher levels of inventory are starting to weigh on home prices, according to the research firm Capital Economics. It's starting to reverse a trend that's persisted for the past few years, with tight inventory pushing home prices to record highs.
Persons: Sellers, Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Business
While it offered few clues on how to tackle economic difficulties, the meeting did provide further insight into a shake-up of high-level personnel over the past year. If past sessions are a guide, a more detailed report may be released in the following days, but for now, “the plenum communique is light on specifics,” Evans-Pritchard added. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy. Emphasizing short-term economic policies is rare in the history of the third plenums, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — China’s, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Julian Evans, Pritchard, Qin, Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, Jinming, Evans, , ” Evans, Mao, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Central, Defense, Liberation Army Rocket Force, of America, National Bureau, Statistics, Analysts, Macquarie Group Locations: Hong Kong, party’s, Beijing, China, policymaking, outflows, United States, Mao China
Physical goods have accounted for much of the deflation over the past year, according to economists. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. However, a shift toward higher tariffs and less free trade could serve to push up goods prices "quite significantly," she added. Why there's been deflation for food, travel, electronicsPrices have also declined for items including food, travel and electronics. Travelers have seen deflation for airline fares (prices are down 5.1% annually) amid factors like an increased volume of available seats.
Persons: Olivia Cross, Cross Organizations: Getty, Capital Economics, U.S, AAA, Travelers Locations: U.S, North America, China
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