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If housing cost pressures start to ease more in the coming months, as many economists expect, then the Federal Reserve is almost certainly done. Headline annual consumer price inflation rose a little less than expected last month to 3.2%, and annual core inflation cooled slightly to 4.7%, as forecast. Reuters ImageReuters ImageShelter inflation is running at a 7.7% annual rate and has been far stickier than policymakers would have liked. But Parsons reckons lag effects will soon be bringing shelter inflation down more quickly. Reuters ImageReuters ImageReuters Image(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jay Parsons, Parsons, Jerome Powell's, Phil Suttle, Julia Coronado, Andreas Steno Larsen, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, CPI, Suttle, Steno Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ORLANDO, Florida, materializing

☆ The possibility of a soft landing looks more tangible than it did 6 months ago, says Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe possibility of a soft landing looks more tangible than it did 6 months ago, says Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and president and former FOMC economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest productivity numbers, the Fed's rate hike campaign, Fitch's rating downgrade, and more.

Persons: Julia Coronado Julia Coronado Organizations: MacroPolicy

☆ 3 signs the US economy is set to zoom past growth expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, —, Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina

☆ Top economists do U-turn on recession forecasts as most now see it as unlikely in next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less. It's a turnabout from a March, when a majority saw a recession sometime in 2023. A 71% majority of economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 50% or less, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics. That includes a sizable chunk who are especially optimistic, with one-fourth saying a recession has a probability of 25% or less. And in the March NABE survey, 58% said the US was either already in a recession or that it would come sometime in 2023.

Persons: It's, Julia Coronado, Steve Eisman, Paul Krugman Organizations: National Association for Business Economics, Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Business conditions are expected to improve as inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —American businesses are expected to fare better in the coming months, according to a survey of economists and analysts released Monday. A survey from the National Association for Business Economics released Monday showed that businesses have rejoiced in better economic conditions. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents reported that wages at their firms were unchanged — the first time more economists reported no wage gains than rising wages since 2021. The Fed doesn’t necessarily need a recession to do that, but some research suggests the labor market must cool further. The labor market is closely watched by Fed officials since higher labor costs feed into inflation.

Persons: haven’t, ”, Julia Coronado, Austan Goolsbee, cooldown, Brian Moynihan, bode Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan’s, Consumers, National Association for Business, Employers, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Federation of Independent, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ We believe next week's Fed rate hike will be the last: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe believe next week's Fed rate hike will be the last: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign, what to expect from the Fed next week, and more.

Persons: Julia Coronado Julia Coronado Organizations: MacroPolicy, Fed

☆ A few more rate hikes might not be as damaging to market sentiment after June pause: Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA few more rate hikes might not be as damaging to market sentiment after June pause: Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins CNBC's 'Taking Stock' special to discuss recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the central bank's next moves, and the banking sector's impact on Federal Reserve policy.

Persons: Julia Coronado Julia Coronado, Jerome Powell Organizations: MacroPolicy, Federal

☆ Economy remains very strong despite Fed's rate hikes, says Allspring Global's Margie Patel
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy remains very strong despite Fed's rate hikes, says Allspring Global's Margie PatelJulia Coronado, founder of Macro Policy Perspectives, and Margie Patel, senior portfolio manager for multi-asset solutions with Allspring Global Investments, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the potential for a Fed rate pause, the Fed's mission to find an adequate hold rate, and investment strategies for the fixed-income market.

Persons: Allspring, Margie Patel Julia Coronado, Margie Patel Organizations: Macro, Allspring Global Investments

☆ Travel news: Summer flights, best beaches and tourist-deterring fences
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Maureen O'Hare | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —In travel news this week, why this summer could be a record-breaking one for air travel, America’s best beaches and Asian-American fusion cuisine – plus an Austrian village takes an unusual approach to combating unwelcome tourist behavior. Celebrating Asian American heritageGrowing up in North Carolina in the 1980s and ’90s, Kevin Lambert always felt different from his White peers. The United States has long been described as a “melting pot,” and it sure is delicious. 1 beach in the United States, which is on the Gulf of Mexico, has miles of pristine sand. nobleIMAGES/Alamy Stock Photo The best beaches in the United States in 2023 Prev NextHalf of the top 10 beaches in the United States for 2023 are in Florida and Hawaii, according to the latest annual report from coastal scientist “Dr.

☆ End of Title 42 immigration policy has brought fewer migrants than expected, but overcrowding concerns remain
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Nouran Salahieh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +14 min

David Peinado Romero/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Migrants carry a baby in a suitcase across the Rio Grande on May 10. Gary Coronado/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images Migrants wait to get paid after washing cars at a gas station in Brownsville on May 10. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images Migrants surrender to US Border Patrol agents after crossing the border in Yuma on May 10. Paul Ratje/Reuters Migrants wait to be processed by US Border Patrol agents in Santa Teresa, New Mexico, on April 26. Hudak warned in the filing that without measures to conditionally release some migrants, Border Patrol could have over 45,000 migrants in custody by the end of the month.

☆ Recession will be an early '24 problem, not this year: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession will be an early '24 problem, not this year: MacroPolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoJulia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, and Tyler Goodspeed, Cato Institute adjunct scholar and former acting CEA chairman, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss their thoughts on the economic outlook for 2023, how they view the relatively strong labor market, and more.

☆ What is a red flag warning? What to know as fire weather conditions affect more parts of the US
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Chris Panella | Morgan Mcfall-Johnsen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Here's what to know when you see a red flag warning in your area, and how to protect yourself. Red flag warnings indicate dry, arid weather and strong wind conditions that increase the possibility of dangerous wildfires. One map shared on Twitter by climate reporter Dave Levitan shows the latest range of red flag warnings stretching from New Mexico to Massachusetts. Be careful with cigarettes during a red flag warning. Lastly, the NWS has some basic guidelines to avoid igniting fires during a red flag warning:

☆ Glencore’s Teck gambit could slip on an oily patch
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Karen Kwok | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Valued at 6 times its expected 2024 EBITDA of $3.2 billion, Teck’s metals unit would be worth just under $20 billion. Glencore boss Gary Nagle’s alternative plan, which would hand Teck shareholders 24% of the enlarged company, initially looks more appealing. Nagle can’t put the business, the pride of Glencore founder Marc Rich, together with the new coal unit. The risk for Nagle is that Teck shareholders do too. Teck shareholders will vote on the company’s proposal on April 26.

☆ Better supply and demand balance is close-at-hand: Macropolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBetter supply and demand balance is close-at-hand: Macropolicy Perspectives' Julia CoronadoMacropolicy Perspectives' Julia Coronado, and Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the recent jobless claims data, Strain's emphasis on the levels in yields, and more.

☆ Contagion and fallout risk 'not at all' finished from SVB collapse: Former IMF economist Ken Rogoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailContagion and fallout risk 'not at all' finished from SVB collapse: Former IMF economist Ken RogoffJulia Coronado, MacroPolicy Perspectives founder and former Fed economist, and Ken Rogoff, former chief IMF economist and Harvard economics professor, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the Federal Reserve should do at its next meeting, if there's further contagion risk from the SVB collapse and more.

☆ Fed Chair Powell's testimony: What it means for the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell's testimony: What it means for the marketEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, and Julia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy perspectives, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss how much weight Powell's comments carry, Yardeni's expectations for the markets in March, and more.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why the Fed is increasingly flying blind on the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But lately, some economists have begun to worry that the data on which Fed officials rely is becoming increasingly inaccurate. That causes more volatility in the incoming data and hence more volatility in markets, economists say. To what extent are declining response rates to surveys actually impacting the data we use? It is absolutely critical for the Fed and markets that the incoming data is as reliable as possible. Those earnings reached what Buffett called a “record” — $30.8 billion in 2022, topping the $27.5 billion in the prior year.

☆ NABE economists still expect a recession this year. The question is when
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Nearly 60% of survey respondents said they believe the US had a more than 50% shot of entering a recession in the next 12 months. When such a recession would start was another matter: 28% said first quarter, 33% said second quarter, and 21% said third quarter. Creating some uncertainty among economists, however, is what the Fed might do during that time as well as the potential effect from external factors. NABE economists said they expect unemployment to increase, but the majority doubt it’ll exceed 5%. A mere 2% of respondents said that a “housing market bust” was the greatest downside risk to the US economy in 2023.

☆ MacroPolicy Perspectives founder: We are expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMacroPolicy Perspectives founder: We are expecting a 25-basis-point rate hike next weekJulia Coronado, founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what investors should monitor in Thursday's GDP data, how markets will react to good and bad news, and more.

☆ Premarket stocks: Tech earnings could wreck Wall Street's party
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Big Tech earnings are here, and investors are hoping they don’t wreck the good vibes on Wall Street. Three giant tech earnings reports this week — Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA)and Intel (INTC) — could change that. In the year-ago quarter, earnings were $2.48 per share on $51.73 billion in revenue. Still, Wall Street expects Tesla’s earnings to grow, if not at the explosive pace of the past few years. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that tech growth will slow to 9% between 2021 and 2024 while the sales growth of the overall S&P 500 reaches 7%.

☆ More layoffs are on the way, survey of business economists finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —For the first time since the early days of the pandemic, most business economists expect their companies to cut payrolls in the coming months, according to a new survey released Monday. Just 12% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) anticipate employment will increase at their firms over the next three months, down from 22% this fall. The share of economists expecting payrolls will decline at their companies ticked up to 19%, according to the survey, which was conducted January 4 to January 11. NABE said this is the first time since 2020 that more respondents anticipate shrinking, rather than growing, employment at their firms. The survey found that slightly more than half of the business economists who responded peg the risk of a recession over the next year at 50% or higher, with the biggest risks including higher interest rates and costs.

☆ For 60 years, the US Navy has been training dolphins and sea lions to keep rivals away from its most sensitive hardware
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Gidget Fuentes | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

The US Navy has been training dolphins and sea lions to detect undersea threats since the 1960s. A US Navy trainer with a Mark 5 Marine Mammal sea lion in Key West in October 1990. The program worked with sharks, rays, and sea turtles but settled on dolphins and sea lions. US NavyThe Navy Marine Mammal Program's budget for 2023 provides $40 million for "food, medicine, veterinary care, husbandry, and facilities," Wilson said. A US Navy sea lion jumps into a riverine command boat during a mine-countermeasures exercise in Bahrain in November 2014.

☆ The US military is planning for a 'transformative' year in Asia as tensions with China continue to rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( Christopher Woody | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Amid rising tensions with China, the US military has sought to bolster its presence in Asia. US forces there may see the "most transformative year" in a generation in 2023, a US official said. Major changes to the US military presence in Asia face logistical and political hurdles, however. Other countries have sought more training with the US military or, in the case of Palau, to host US forces. There are opportunities for the US "to expand its access and deepen relationships" in both Northeast and Southeast Asia, said Thompson, a former US Defense Department official, but US leaders will have to reckon with the limits of those partnerships, especially in Southeast Asia.

Doug Ducey has agreed to dismantle a makeshift border wall that triggered a lawsuit by the federal government and rankled environmentalists. The agreement comes one week after federal officials filed a lawsuit against Ducey’s administration saying the border project was illegally built on federal land. Protesters spent weeks camping in freezing temperatures along the border wall, and had vowed to stay there until the containers were removed. Karamargin said the assurance from federal officials paved the way for Ducey to agree to remove the shipping containers. The shipping container project cost Arizona at least $82 million, Karamargin said.

☆ Revised third-quarter GDP up 3.2% compared with prior 2.9%
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRevised third-quarter GDP up 3.2% compared with prior 2.9%Allison Schrager, Manhattan Institute senior fellow, Julia Coronado, president and founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, and CNBC's Rick Santelli and Steve Liesman join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the revised third-quarter GDP data and more.

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