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And for the first time since 2020, more farmers expect farmland values to go down rather than up. James Mintert, director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial Agriculture, expects land values to likely flatten in the short term. Higher estate tax exemptions approved under the Trump administration's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 are set to expire next year. She added: "Let's be clear that the Trump administration resulted in a trade deficit, one of the highest we've ever seen in the history of America." "It also benefits from some of the tax policies that have been supported by the Trump administration [in] the past, including things like accelerated depreciation [and] lower corporate tax rates."
Persons: Farmer, , James Mintert, Mintert, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Michael Langemeier, They're, Langemeier, that's, Kristen Owen, Oppenheimer, That's, Owen, Harris, Trump, Stocks, Owen doesn't, reshoring, Cerity, Jim Lebenthal Organizations: Purdue University, CME, Purdue University's Center, Commercial Agriculture, CNBC, NBC, Purdue, Trump, Biden, Republican, Deere, Caterpillar, Farmers, Management, Democratic, Republicans Locations: U.S, Mexico, China, Green
The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. The U.S. dollar traded close to a three-month high against major peers on Thursday, underpinned by expectations for a slower pace interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing bets of a possible second Donald Trump presidency. This week, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he would prefer to "avoid outsized moves", and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker backed "a slow, methodical approach" to further easing. The dollar has now "punched through key technical resistance levels" against the yen, "opening the door for higher levels", Catril said. Although opinion polls indicate a neck-and-neck race with Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, cryptocurrency-prediction exchange Polymarket has seen a sharp rise in bets for a Trump win.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jeffrey Schmid, Patrick Harker, Rodrigo Catril, Catril, Trump, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde, Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Kansas, Philadelphia Fed, Treasury, National Australia Bank, UST, Republican, Democratic, Trump, of, Traders, European Central Bank, Wednesday Locations: Japan, Sunday's
The recent strong run in stocks could be just the beginning, according to Canaccord Genuity. The recent rally comes as the current bull market turned two years old. Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Welch thinks more gains could lie ahead. .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 SPX during bull market "The current two-year-old bull market remains below the median in both percent gain and duration, suggesting the upside has further room to run," he wrote Monday. The latest market run also comes as investors pore through third-quarter results.
Persons: Canaccord, Michael Welch, Welch, Goldman Sachs, Warby Parker, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S
Price of gold is proving an unstoppable force lately
  + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold recently regained momentum after the Federal Reserve began its easing cycle with a half-percentage point rate cut last month. However, the latest upturn comes despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar too, which might be expected to take the wind from gold's sails. Higher yields typically make gold less attractive, as the metal doesn't offer any yield. The 10-year Treasury yield has soared to 4.08% from around 3.7% over the past month. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency's performance against the euro, Japanese yen and others, is up nearly 3% over the past month.
Persons: Gold, Andrew Brenner, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S, NatAlliance Securities, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury Locations: NatAlliance
Small-cap stocks are looking very good right now. Lower rates can boost smaller companies by allowing them to borrow money for cheaper and expand their businesses. Smaller companies are more vulnerable to economic cycles. Despite this recently strong performance, small caps are still lagging their large-cap counterparts for the year. To be sure, some on the Street are pointing to another driver for small caps: the potential of a Trump victory on Election Day.
Persons: Russell, IWM, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Cantor, Howard Lutnick Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Insight Enterprises, Trump Locations: China
U.S. interest rate cuts are unlikely to move at an aggressive pace, say market watchers. The Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a jumbo 50 basis-point rate cut in September — but subsequent ones will be milder, they said. They highlighted the better-than-expected September jobs report, renewed worries around inflation, rising yields and an economy that's still relatively strong. How to position In that scenario — and with inflation expected to continue being sticky, it's important that investors still have exposure to commodities, said Landsberg. Christopher of Wells Fargo said if interest rates moderate and earnings are stronger than expected, market performance will broaden out further.
Persons: , Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Adam Coons, Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Landsberg, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Luis Alvarado, Alvarado Organizations: Fed, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Winthrop Capital Management, Wealth Management Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S
The Aussie dropped as much as 0.51% to $0.6669, the lowest since Sept. 12, before changing hands down 0.38% at $0.6678 as of 0133 GMT. The New Zealand dollar sank as much as 0.69% to $0.6041, a level last seen on Aug. 19. China will hold a press conference on Thursday to discuss promoting the "steady and healthy" development of the property sector. The dollar was little changed at 149.135 yen , not far from Monday's high of 149.98 yen, the strongest since Aug. 1. The euro edged 0.05% lower to $1.08875, and earlier touched $1.0882, matching the low from Tuesday, which was the weakest level since Aug. 8.
Persons: There's, Ray Attrill, there's, Attrill Organizations: New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Statistics, U.S, Traders, Fed, European Central Bank Locations: New Zealand, Beijing, China, Statistics New Zealand
UBS sees S&P 500 soaring to 6,400 by the end of 2025
  + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Strategist Jonathan Golub raised his 2025 S & P 500 target to 6,400 from 6,000 in a note to clients released Tuesday. "UBS economists forecast 3.7% nominal GDP in 2025 (1.6% real), roughly in line with long-term averages," he said. Golub also noted that a "sharp decline in Fed Funds will likely increase profit margins by 20 [basis points] via lower interest expense." The Fed lowered its benchmark fed funds rates a half a point, to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%, in September. Bottom line: Stocks could consolidate to end 2024 before scaling new heights in the new year, based on UBS' outlook.
Persons: Jonathan Golub, Golub, Stocks, Golub doesn't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Monday's
Dollar bulls suffer setback as traders add to Fed cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar fell from two-month highs hit overnight versus its major peers after signs of weakness in the labor market boosted the case for quicker Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bets for a quarter-point Fed rate cut on Nov. 7 increased to 83.3% from 80.3% a day earlier, with the remaining odds for policy to stay steady, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. A week earlier, there was a 32.1% chance of a half-point reduction and 67.9% probability of a quarter-point cut. The dollar added 0.06% to 148.68 yen , inching back towards Thursday's high of 149.58 yen, a level previously not seen since Aug. 2. The Australian dollar held firm at $0.67395 after rebounding from its lowest since Sept. 16 at $0.6702 on Thursday.
Persons: Tapas Strickland, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S, Treasury, National Australia Bank, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed Locations: China
European markets are heading for a positive open Thursday as investors await the latest U.S. inflation data for more signs that price pressures are easing. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.1% increase on a monthly basis, and a 2.3% advance over the prior 12 months. The result will also inform the Federal Reserve's next steps on policy at its November meeting. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a roughly 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night, while Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly higher on Thursday, buoyed by gains on Wall Street on Wednesday.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Locations: Asia, Pacific
Why investors shouldn’t sweat this inflation report
  + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The latest inflation report came in slightly hotter than expected, knocking stock prices lower. But the odds of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in November actually rose after the report came out. "CPI Inflation data was slightly on the hotter side, with commodity prices (outside) energy rising more than expected. The good news is that shelter inflation is pulling back and that's going to pull inflation lower. Investors received fresh labor market data Thursday as well, with initial jobless claims jumping by 33,000 to 258,000.
Persons: Dow Jones, Sonu Varghese, Goldman Sachs, Whitney Watson, Ian Lyngen, Stephen Tusa Organizations: CPI, Reserve, Carson, Investors, BMO Capital Markets, JPMorgan, Honeywell
The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The U.S. dollar traded near a two-month peak against major peers on Thursday as markets grew more confident about a patient approach from the Federal Reserve to further monetary easing, even as a key inflation report loomed later in the day. The euro languished near its lowest since Aug. 13, while against the yen, the dollar hovered close to its strongest level since Aug. 15. The dollar index was little changed at 102.86 as of 0024 GMT, sticking close to Wednesday's high of 102.93. The greenback eased 0.18% to 149.035 yen , but was not far from the overnight peak of 146.365.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, , Rodda, Mary Daly Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S, CPI, Francisco Fed, Traders, New Locations: U.S
"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading in New York City. U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night as investors looked ahead to the release of September's consumer price index report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near the flatline. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a roughly 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Economists polled by Dow Jones see core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rising by 0.2%.
Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Stephanie Roth Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Wolfe Research, Delta Air Lines Locations: New York City . U.S
The bank raised its 2024 S & P 500 target to 6,000 from 5,600. Goldman also raised its 12-month S & P 500 target to 6,300 from 6,000. But Goldman thinks ultimately earnings growth will lift markets further before the year is out. The S & P 500 is in the red for October so far. Analysts polled by FactSet expect S & P 500 earnings grew for a fifth straight quarter.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, That's, Goldman, David Kostin, Kostin, Wells, Ken Gawrelski Organizations: Evercore ISI, CNBC, Federal Reserve, FactSet, North America Retail Locations: Friday's
A television broadcasts the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 18, 2024. Roche said the figures made the Fed's "jumbo interest rate cut look silly, populist and panicky." 1 is that [it gives the impression that] the economy is more fragile than it is ... and the economy is fine, thank you very much, and doesn't need jumbo rate cuts," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." And headline and core inflation will stay above the Fed target of 2%, so the case for aggressive rate cuts [is not there]," he said. "Yes there is a case for modest rate cuts, there is a case for 25 to 50 basis point cuts by January next year, but a case for 50 basis point cut at the next meeting just does not exist," Parker said.
Persons: Michael Nagle, David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, " Roche, Bob Parker, Parker, Dave Pierce Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Quantum, Federal, Market, International Capital Markets Association, Fed, Global, Capital, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Israel, U.S
Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
U.S. Treasury yields were slightly higher early Monday as investors assessed future moves from the Federal Reserve following Friday's bumper jobs report. The 10-year Treasury yield was up by under a basis point at 3.984%, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury was over 3 basis points higher at 3.968%. One basis point equals 0.01%. Treasury yields jumped on Friday as investors digested a better-than-expected September jobs report. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates that traders are now pricing in an 91% chance of a quarter percentage point rate cut at the central bank's next meeting in November.
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Alberto Musalem Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investors Locations: Israel
"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.
Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S
The euro languished not far from a three-week trough reached in the previous session, after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. Currently, traders lay 34.6% odds of another 50 basis-point U.S. rate cut on Nov. 7, after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a super-sized reduction last month. "I do think that if the payrolls report overall is not too shabby tomorrow night, then we will see that pricing (for a 50 basis-point cut) coming in quite significantly." The dollar added 0.09% to 146.575 yen after earlier reaching 146.885 for the first time since Sept. 3. The euro was little changed at $1.10455, sitting not far from Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12.
Persons: European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Asahi Noguchi, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Private U.S, ADP, Fed, National Australia Bank, Dovish Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel
India's recent stock market surge has investors viewing the country as an emerging market poised for long-term outperformance. The India NSE Nifty 50 Index , the country's domestic stock market benchmark, has soared 18.7% this year, hitting record levels. "The data show that, historically, the Indian market has offered robust returns with reduced volatility." Going back to 2015, INDA has seen bigger annual gains and smaller declines than the broader emerging market fund. How to play the Indian market Financials are among investors' favorite spots in India's booming stock market.
Persons: It's, Malcolm Dorson, Dorson, GlobalX, Russell, , EEM, INDA, Amr Abdel Khalek, Khalek, Jerome Powell, Venugopal Garre, Krishna Mohanraj, You've, Mohanraj Organizations: India NSE, Global, CNBC, U.S, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, China, MRB Partners, Traders, Barclays, Diamond Hill Capital Management, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI, HDFC, Whitehaven Coal, Prestige Estates Locations: India, China, Dorson, U.S, Whitehaven
Don't overlook Disney : Shares of Club name Disney have quietly put together a solid September, up about 6% in the month. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Powell, we've, Jim Cramer's, Coterra, McCormick, We'll, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Disney, Seaport Research, Seaport, Energy, Coterra Energy, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Nashville
Dollar drifts, risk-sensitive currencies lifted by China optimism
  + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a fourth straight week of declines as investors weighed U.S. data to gauge the pace of interest rate cuts, while China's spree of stimulus measures kept risk-sensitive currencies aloft. The dollar wobbled on Friday, poised for a fourth straight week of declines as investors weighed U.S. data to gauge the pace of interest rate cuts, while China's spree of stimulus measures kept risk-sensitive currencies aloft. "This suggests a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts, prioritizing a balance between the Fed's employment mandate and keeping an eye on inflation risks." The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars also held near multi-year highs due to China stimulus plans. AUD/On Thursday, China's leaders pledged to support the struggling economy through "forceful" interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal and monetary policies, stoking expectations for more stimulus.
Persons: Ryan Brandham, Sterling, China's Organizations: Federal Reserve, North America, Validus Risk, New, Communist Party, ING Locations: U.S, China, New Zealand
The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.
Persons: hasn’t, , Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, , Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management
The Treasury market, though, hasn't been paying attention. Watching the curveThe difference between the 10- and 2-year notes has widened significantly, increasing by about 12 basis points since the Fed meeting. That sentiment is evident in the "breakeven" inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. watch nowFed officials aim for a 2% inflation rate, and none of the principal gauges are there yet.
Persons: Anna Moneymaker, hasn't, Jonathan Duensing, — haven't, Robert Tipp Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation Locations: Washington , DC
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