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Investors Retreat From Commercial Real Estate Bonds
  + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Sam Goldfarb | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Office vacancies are soaring in many cities, fueling concern that delinquencies and defaults will continue to climb. Prices of bonds backed by commercial mortgages have recently dropped to levels not seen since the early days of the pandemic, pointing to a growing economic threat stemming from office vacancies and rising interest rates. A small corner of the U.S. bond market, so-called commercial-mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, have taken a beating for over a year owing to fears that owners of business parks, high-rises and other office properties could default on loans extended at a time of different work habits and lower financing costs.
As commercial real estate comes under even greater pressure, investors should steer clear of these stocks that are overexposed to the sector, JPMorgan said. Commercial real estate is already facing more challenges this year than other parts of real estate, such as retail or lodging. Last year, office real estate dropped 37.6%, also on a total return basis. Given this, JPMorgan screened for a basket of stocks with direct and indirect exposure to U.S. commercial real estate. JPMorgan also identified pharmacy store chains Walgreens Boots Alliance and CVS Health as having direct exposure to any slowdown in commercial real estate.
The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.
Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.
March 2 (Reuters) - Blackstone Inc (BX.N) has defaulted on a 531 million euro ($562.5 million) bond backed by a portfolio of offices and stores owned by Finnish company Sponda Oy, Bloomberg News reported, as rising interest rates hit European property values. "This debt relates to a small portion of the Sponda portfolio. We are disappointed that the Servicer has not advanced our proposal," Blackstone said in an emailed statement on Thursday. "We continue to have full confidence in the core Sponda portfolio and its management team," the company added. Blackstone's $71 billion unlisted real estate income trust (BREIT) has also been in hot water.
Investors are eyeing profits in campgrounds and RV parks as Americans flock to the great outdoors. Camp Margaritaville RV Resort and Cabana Cabins Auburndale, Central FloridaThe trend is also driven by demographics. Sam Zell's Equity Lifestyle Properties, another large REIT that invests in RV parks alongside mobile homes, has also been busy. While it's not clear how much big investors have thrown into RV campgrounds, manufactured housing communities as a whole have seen a burst of Wall Street financing. After looking hard at multifamily and industrial, he settled with RV parks.
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