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☆ Dollar edges up against yen as investors wait on inflation data, Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data for May and the Fed’s interest rate decision next week, while the Canadian dollar jumped after the Bank of Canada hiked rates. (USCPI=ECI)"We expect a fair degree of consolidation ahead of the Fed decision next week," said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "That CPI number’s going to be critical for the Fed decision as well. Traders have also priced out most expectations that the Fed will cut rates this year as inflation remains above target. Australia's central bank chief on Wednesday stepped up a warning of more rate hikes ahead to temper rising price pressures.

Persons: Bipan Rai, Jane Foley, they’ll, Lou Brien, Amanda Cooper, Sharon Singleton, Emelia, Nick Macfie Organizations: YORK, Canadian, Bank of Canada, CIBC Capital Markets, Traders, Rabobank, U.S, Fed, ECB, Reserve Bank of, Thomson Locations: U.S, North American, Toronto, Canada, Australia, Chicago, Reserve Bank of Australia, London

TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened on Wednesday, lifted by rising Treasury yields, though the pound gained against the greenback after British inflation stayed above 10% in March and put more pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising rates. "We still think that over the medium- to long-term that the dollar is going to continue to come under considerable amounts of pressure. Wednesday data showed British consumer price inflation eased less than expected in March to 10.1% from February's 10.4%, meaning Britain has western Europe's highest rate of consumer inflation. Deutsche Bank on Wednesday revised up expectations for British rates to include two more 25 basis point rate hikes from the Bank of England. Currency bid prices at 2:42PM (1842 GMT)Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Last month, the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to pause its rate-hiking campaign, after lifting its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. This will carry through to higher economic growth." That is welcome news for most, but not for Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, as it could call into question his decision to announce a conditional rate pause in January. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth." Canada's economy faces headwinds from higher borrowing costs and financial stability concerns, while inflation has cooled more than in the United States, said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

OTTAWA, March 31 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy grew more than expected in January and is seen expanding further in February, data showed on Friday, results that are likely to fuel concern by the central bank that inflation has yet to be fully tamed. The economy gained by 0.5% in January, ahead of analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after contracting 0.1% in December, Statistics Canada said. The Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to pause interest rate hikes in March after increasing them at eight consecutive previous meetings. With the key overnight rate now at 4.5%, the bank said it would not raise rates again if inflation came down as forecast. While inflation has eased, falling to 5.2% in February from a high of 8.1% last year, the economy is expanding faster than the central bank had forecast in January.

☆ Canada to ramp up clean-tech push in budget to level playing field with US
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In Canada, there's more pressure to step up green investments to level the playing field with the United States, which passed a series of massive incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) last year. Last week Freeland said Canada is at a "crucial crossroads" for the green transition and that it would be "reckless" not to make major investments in clean tech. But she has also said she does not want to fuel inflation and slowing growth means fiscal responsibility is warranted. The budget will also include an increase in federal healthcare spending promised earlier this year to the provinces, which administer the public health system. Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar dips, Powell testimony and jobs data in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index has bounced off a nine-month low of 100.80 reached on Feb. 1 as strong data and still-high inflation leads investors to reprice for higher rates for longer. Data on Monday showed that new orders for U.S.-manufactured goods fell in January, pulled down by a plunge in civilian aircraft bookings. Powell’s testimony will be watched for any new signals on whether the U.S. central bank could reaccelerate the pace of rate hikes in response to the recent data. The Chinese yuan and Aussie dollar fell after China on Sunday set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year of around 5%. The dollar gained 0.15% to 136.02 yen ahead of the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday.

☆ Bank of Canada to hold rates steady at 4.50% through this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

All 32 economists polled Feb. 24 to March 3 expect the BoC to hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on March 8. A majority forecast the BoC to keep it there for the rest of 2023, despite several more rate hikes expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the meantime, Canada inflation data are headed in the right direction. "Well, the interesting thing could be in the tone of the statement," said Brown, who expects a hawkish tone. "The Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes will eventually make their way into Canadian inflation through exchange rates...so that will certainly push the Bank of Canada to do more," said Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.

☆ VIEW Canada's economy unexpectedly stalled in Q4; January rebound likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy recorded no growth in the final three months of 2022, massively underperforming expectations, though economic activity likely rebounded with a 0.3% increase in January, Statistics Canada data showed on Tuesday. "Even with the January rebound, however, Q4 and Q1 combined seem likely to average slightly below the Bank of Canada's prior forecasts which supports the current pause in terms of interest rates." It'll be a short and sweet statement saying that they're still on a conditional hold and evaluating the lagging effects. They'll want to see a whole lot more data before they're convinced that they're either done and/or that they're going to act again." ROBERT BOTH, MACRO STRATEGIST, TD SECURITIES"It is a pretty large miss on Q4.

The jobless rate held steady at 5%, which is just a decimal point higher than the record low, Statistics Canada (Statscan) said. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 15,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.1% in January. "However, that won't stop markets reacting to today's strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts," he said. Before the jobs numbers, markets had been betting that the Bank of Canada's next move would be to cut rates. When he announced a pause on rates, Governor Tiff Macklem said it was "conditional" and did not rule out further increases.

OTTAWA, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased more than expected in December as gas prices came down but core measures remained little changed from the previous month, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday, making another interest rate hike this month likely. Inflation slowed to 6.3% in December from 6.8% in November, a notch lower than the 6.4% median forecast of analysts. Prices fell 0.6% from the previous month, again showing price pressures easing more than analysts' forecast for a 0.5% decline. Most analysts agreed the Bank of Canada would hike rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Jan. 25, when it next meets. Money markets see a 77% chance of a quarter-point hike by the Bank of Canada next week, up from 70% before the data.

☆ Canada posts hefty job gains, raising chances of another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The economy gained a net 104,000 jobs in December, far exceeding analysts' forecasts, while the jobless rate decreased to 5% from 5.1% in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 8,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.2%. Money markets now see a 75% chance of a 25-bp rate increase in January, up from roughly 60% before the data. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by a net 22,200, mainly in construction. Employees in the private sector rose by 112,000 in December, the largest increase since February, while public sector and self-employed workers were both little changed, Statscan said.

☆ Canadian dollar to rebound in 2023 if economic uncertainty clears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie will edge 0.6% higher to 1.35 per U.S. dollar, or 74.07 U.S. cents, in three months, according to the median forecast of currency analysts. The Bank of Canada, along with the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks, has raised interest rates at a rapid pace to tackle soaring inflation. Another potential tailwind for the loonie would be the end of the U.S. dollar's in global currency markets since 2021. A "weaker dollar story" could emerge if the Fed moves to end quantitative tightening (QT), said Bipan Rai, global head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. QT is a process central banks use to shrink the size of their balance sheets.

October growth slowed compared with September's 0.2% gain, which was an upward revision from a previously reported 0.1% increase, Statistics Canada said. "The real question will be how things shake out during the first half of next year, when aggressive Bank of Canada rate hikes start to more fully work their way through the system," Kavcic said. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November, but was slightly higher than had been expected because of broad-based price pressures, according to data from earlier this week, leaving the door open for another rate increase in January. The bank has said it will be more data-dependent in setting the policy rate. November's preliminary estimate showing a 0.1% monthly increase in GDP was driven by gains in utilities and wholesale trade, Statscan said.

The bank cited still-strong growth and tight labor markets as the reason for the latest increase. But it eliminated the forward guidance it has used since it began cranking rates higher in March, dropping language that said they would have to rise further. Money markets had bet on a 25-basis-point increase, but a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll expected a 50-bps move. Overall, however, the central bank said that data supported its October forecast that growth would stall through the middle of next year. Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto, Editing by Sandra Maler, Kirsten Donovan and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Sterling hits highest in almost 3 months ahead of UK budget as dollar tumbles
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters - The pound rose to its highest in almost three months against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday ahead of the UK government's budget this week, largely as the greenback came under fire. "Today is more about the high-beta currencies against the dollar making hay while the sun shines," CIBC Capital Markets head of G10 currency strategy Jeremy Stretch said. The pound was last up 1% against the dollar at $1.18785, while against the euro it was up 0.1% at 87.74 pence. "We do have the fiscal statement coming and that is going to be a sea of negativity. ($1 = 0.8428 pounds)Reporting by Amanda Cooper Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar slides, CPI data suggests Fed could slow pace of rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Inflation is clearly moving in the right direction, and that keeps a more hawkish Fed at bay," he said. The spike higher in the yen versus the dollar stirred speculation the Bank of Japan intervened, which analysts doubted. Fed funds futures priced in a drop in expectations for the U.S. central bank's peak target rate, which fell below 5%. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed instead of a 75-basis-point increase in December rose to 71.5%. CPI rose 7.7% in October on a year-over-year basis, down from 8.2% in the prior month, as headline inflation fell below 8% for the first time since February.

☆ Dollar on track for biggest plunge since 2015 as investors exit crowded positions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The scope of the dollar's moves against many currencies on Thursday has been breathtaking, as investors pull back from what has been seen as an extremely crowded trade in foreign exchange markets. Against a basket of currencies , the dollar was off about 1.9%, on pace for its worst day in nearly seven years. The reversal of these trades could fuel further dollar weakness, analysts said, if further signs of economic softening lead investors to bet on a less hawkish Fed. Daniel Wood, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, has increased bets on emerging market currencies rising against the dollar.

☆ Euro, sterling bounce, dollar drops as investors cash in
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Hannah Lang | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration, January 21, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Lee/IllustrationWASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Euro and sterling rose against the safe-haven dollar on Monday, supported by a risk-on sentiment across markets as investors digested positive euro zone data and looked to cash in on the strength of the U.S. currency. The euro was up 0.69% to $1.0029, its highest level since Oct. 27, while sterling was last trading at $1.1534, up 1.40% on the day. Investors were also cheered by a readout on Monday showing that German industrial production grew in September, beating analyst expectations. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index fell 0.91% to 110.070.

☆ Canada's share buyback tax could backfire, energy sector warns
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Rod Nickel | Nia Williams | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

FILE PHOTO: The processing facility at the Suncor oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, Alberta, September 17, 2014. On Thursday, the Liberal government proposed a 2% tax on buybacks to encourage companies to reinvest in their workers and business. The tax will generate an estimated C$2.1 billion ($1.6 billion) over five years and take effect on Jan. 1, 2024. Canada’s four largest producers - Canadian Natural Resources Ltd, Cenovus Energy, Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil - spent C$15.8 billion combined on buybacks in 2022’s first three quarters, according to Tudor Pickering Holt (TPH). The tax may not deter oil companies’ buyback intentions anyway, said Eight Capital analyst Phil Skolnick, who covers the sector.

☆ Canadian dollar forecasts cut as BoC trails Fed on peak-rate bets - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The currency has weakened over 7% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2022. It was then expected to rally to 1.31 in a year, versus 1.30 expected in last month's poll. "That implied spread between terminal rates in Canada and the United States will probably have to widen out further and that could take the U.S. dollar higher across the board including against the Canadian dollar." Investors are betting on a terminal rate, or peak level for interest rates, from the BoC in the coming months of 4.25%. "We see less interest in investing money back into the ground in the oil patch when oil prices are high and so there's less room (for the currency) to fall when oil prices are low."

☆ Canada recession may be ‘necessary evil’ as central bank queues big hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThat may be just what the central bank is looking for, said analysts. Inflation in Canada edged down to 6.9% in September, below June's peak of 8.1%, though still well above the Bank of Canada's 2% target. A majority of Canadian firms, meanwhile, think a recession is now likely in the next 12 months, a Bank of Canada survey showed this week. This means the central bank will not start cutting rates until inflation is "within shouting distance" of the 1-3% control range, he said. "I don't think they necessarily are aiming for a recession," said Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities.

OTTAWA, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Business sentiment has softened in Canada and most firms now think a recession is likely, a Bank of Canada survey showed on Monday, but inflation expectations remain high, leaving the central bank little choice but to continue raising rates. The bank's Business Outlook Survey showed 77% of firms see price growth staying above 3% for the next two years. A separate survey showed near-term consumer inflation expectations at record highs, though longer term expectations have eased, providing some relief. "Still-high expectations for inflation will keep the Bank of Canada in rate hike mode," said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, in a note. That is cause for concern for the central bank as it seeks to avoid a wage-price spiral, analysts said.

☆ Volatile sterling surges on reports of potential UK fiscal plan U-turn
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However, the central bank later officially reiterated that its programme of temporary gilt purchases will end on Oct. 14. UK pension schemes are racing to raise hundreds of billions of pounds to shore up derivatives positions before the BoE's Friday deadline. The yen "has lost its safe haven appeal," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank. Investors were focusing on U.S. core inflation data due later, which is projected at 6.5% year-on-year in September. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month showed that officials agreed they needed to raise interest rates to a more restrictive level - and then keep them there for some time - to meet their goal of lowering "broad-based and unacceptably high" inflation.

☆ Sterling volatile ahead of BoE deadline, fragile yen tests 1998 low
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Sterling rose on Thursday in volatile trade as investors awaited the impending deadline for the Bank of England to end an emergency bond-buying programme. Sterling was up 0.44% at $1.1147 at 1054 GMT in a volatile week. "We can expect potential market take-up to continue to increase as market participants prepare for the BoE to exit the market. Sterling volatilityElsewhere, the yen struggled against the U.S. dollar trading 0.1% lower at 146.8. Investors were focusing on U.S. core inflation data due later today, which is projected to rise 6.5% year-on-year in September.

A fragile yen languished near a fresh 24-year low, while markets were also on edge ahead of U.S. inflation data due later in the day for possible clues on how much higher the Federal Reserve will push interest rates. On Thursday, BoE saidUK pension schemes are racing to raise hundreds of billions of pounds to shore up derivatives positions before the BoE's Friday deadline. "We can expect potential market take-up to continue to increase as market participants prepare for the BoE to exit the market. Another currency struggling against the U.S. dollar was the yen , which traded 0.1% lower at 146.8. The yen "has lost its safe haven appeal," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank.

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