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Those factors caused a historic 21% plunge in CBOT December corn in the final seven trading days of June, though price steadied immediately after. But money managers in that week expanded their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 63,052 contracts from 18,209 in the prior week, against expectations for mild net buying. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsUSDA lowered U.S. corn yield on July 12 due to dry June weather, but it would still be a new record. U.S. soybean plantings came in far below market predictions on June 30, but money managers have been net sellers of CBOT soybean futures and options in the last two weeks. That was on a 0.5% rise in November soybean futures for the week, and beans rose another 0.8% in the last three sessions.

Persons: steadied, Wheat, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, soyoil, U.S ., Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, U.S

As of July 3, CBOT December corn futures had plunged nearly 22% off their June 21 high as much-needed rain for U.S. crops started falling and also appeared in forecasts. December corn fell 12% in the four-day week ended July 3, and money managers flipped to a net short in CBOT corn futures and options of 18,209 contracts. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsU.S. soybean plantings on June 30 came in well below all trade guesses, causing a surge in November soybeans . CBOT wheat rose more than 1% over the last three sessions on a slower U.S. winter harvest and possible drought concerns for U.S. and Canadian spring wheat. However, open interest in CBOT wheat futures and options is at the lowest mid-year levels since 2005.

Persons: soyoil, Karen Braun, Leslie Adler Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, USDA, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Minnesota, Iowa , Wisconsin, North Dakota, U.S

Chicago corn, wheat, soybean and soybean meal futures began rallying sharply in mid-June as expanding U.S. drought and disappointing rain events hammered crop conditions. Trade sources had pegged the week’s net corn selling to be about four times heavier. Trade sources peg funds’ net selling in CBOT corn futures at 55,500 contracts over the last three sessions, and CBOT wheat selling is seen at 20,500 futures contracts. Funds were seen as net buyers of 8,000 soybean futures, 9,500 soyoil futures and 3,500 soymeal futures between Wednesday and Friday. Money managers’ weekly net selling in CBOT corn futures and options has twice exceeded 100,000 contracts this calendar year.

Persons: Gross, Wheat, Karen Braun, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, corn’s, Funds, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S, Chicago

This set of reports is associated with the largest average CBOT corn and soy moves of the 15 major USDA report days per year. Directionally, corn and soy futures on June 30 tend to react to acres far more often than stocks, though U.S. weather forecasts often add to the chaos. In the six sessions ended Thursday, CBOT December corn futures plunged 15.9%, June’s biggest six-session loss in at least three decades. Analysts basically nailed both corn acres and June 1 corn stocks last year, which was unprecedented, but December futures fell more than 5% on report day. Trade biases for June 30 U.S. stocks, acres versus pricesTrade biases on June 30 U.S. soy stocks, acres versus pricesKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Persons: Corn, Karen Braun, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Department, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, U.S

The fallout is a rare chink in Lopez Obrador's formidable popularity, steadily above 60% throughout his term. The pricing issue is urgent as northern corn farmers are harvesting now, many with nowhere to sell without taking a loss. It is not the first time that tensions have heated up between this administration and the agriculture sector. Valdez estimated that commercial agriculture producers represent about 10 million votes. Farmers argue Lopez Obrador's government has eliminated important sector benefits, including loans at beneficial interest rates, which his administration says too often fell into arrears.

Persons: Edgard Garrido, Andres Manuel Lopez, Lopez, Lopez Obrador's, Bosco, la Vega, Lopez Obrador, Claudia Sheinbaum, Marcelo Ebrard, Adan Augusto, Baltazar Valdez, Valdez, Raul Urteaga, Urteaga, spokespeople, Luz Maria Mendoza, Cassandra Garrison, Stephen Eisenhammer, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, MEXICO CITY, U.S, Regeneration, Producers, Chicago Board of Trade, CNA, Farmers, North American Free Trade, United Farm Workers, Valdez, Global Agrotrade Advisors, Agriculture, Finance Ministry, FIRA, Thomson Locations: La Constitucion Totoltepec, Toluca , Mexico, MEXICO, Sinaloa, United States, U.S, Chihuahua, Mexico, Canada

In the four-day week ended June 20, money managers erased a combined 100,000 gross short positions across CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans, soy products, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat, the most for any week since August 2020. Money managers also added 45,000 gross longs last week, the most in four months and driven primarily by corn, where new longs outnumbered short covering. Net buying in soybeans last week was split between new longs and short covering, though funds’ latest moves in CBOT wheat and soybean oil were exclusively the result of short covering. They also increased their net long in CBOT soybeans to a two-month high of 76,950 futures and options contracts versus 47,882 a week earlier. Both new-crop corn and soybean futures rose more than 8% in the week ended June 20 amid near-record dryness in top-producing U.S. states.

Persons: Karen Braun, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Environmental Protection Agency, parched, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis, CBOT, U.S, parched U.S, United States

Gains across most-active CBOT futures in the week ended June 6 were as follows: corn 2.4%, soybeans 4.4%, wheat 6.2%, soymeal 1% and soyoil 10.2%. They also trimmed their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 44,492 contracts from 51,065 in the prior week. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsCommodity funds in mid-March established a net short in CBOT corn for the first time since August 2020, but they have not held a net short in soybeans since April 2020. Funds slashed their net short to 16,173 futures and options contracts from a record 31,110 a week earlier. Most-active soybean oil featured the biggest gains at 7.2%, and corn was the biggest loser with December down 1.9% and most-active corn down 0.6%, mostly on weekend rain expectations for the U.S. Corn Belt.

Persons: soymeal, Karen Braun, Diane Craft Organizations: Funds, Wednesday, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: NAPERVILLE , Illinois, Chicago, CBOT soyoil, Midwest

Soybeans are the only U.S.-traded grain or oilseed in which funds’ net long has persevered since 2020, though money managers have been bullish soybean meal since late 2021. Most-active CBOT soybeans fell 3% in the week ended May 23, at one point trading at the lowest levels since last July. Money managers that week cut nearly 20,000 contracts from their CBOT soybean net long, which fell to 4,147 futures and options contracts. Managed money net position in CBOT soybean futures and optionsMost-active soybeans have shed more than 12% this year, more than in most years, though they bounced 1% over the last three sessions. Money managers extended their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options to 118,788 contracts from 112,769 a week earlier.

Most-active CBOT soybean futures shed 3.6% through May 16, and funds added gross shorts for a sixth consecutive week. That could mean money managers at Friday's close were net short soybean futures and options for the first time since April 2020. They have not held a net short for two or more consecutive weeks since March 2020. Money managers' all-time soybean net short of 168,835 futures and options contracts was set on May 14, 2019. CBOT wheat futures had been rallying mid-month due to uncertainty over the Black Sea grain deal, though Russia on Wednesday agreed to a two-month extension, allowing Ukraine to continue exports by sea.

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 17 (Reuters) - Chicago December corn futures on Wednesday traded below $5 per bushel for the first time since 2021, supportive for those who believe new-crop corn has already inked its yearly high. The average price of December corn during February, which represents the insurance guarantee to U.S. corn farmers, is not too impactful for the futures market itself. New-crop corn is already breaking the ranks in terms of downward momentum. Almost three-quarters of the years featured higher new-crop corn prices versus February at some point from July 1, and that happened beyond Oct. 1 half the time. But 2013, which has been compared with 2023 for corn, featured one of the narrowest-ever margins.

New-crop soybeans last printed a January high in 1999, one of three such instances in the last half-century. The last time new-crop corn and soybeans both made their year-of-expiration highs in January was in 1985, though on different days. In the last two decades, June and November have been the most common months for new-crop soybeans’ high, at five apiece. In a highly unusual twist, soybeans also made their yearly low in August 2013.CBOT November soybeans: month of highSOYBEANS VERSUS CORN? However, that phenomenon has not yet been seen for Brazil’s upcoming bumper corn harvest, which will be collected most heavily during June and July.

CBOT December corn futures’ high so far in 2023 was printed Jan. 3, the first trading day of the year. New-crop corn made May highs in 2021 and 2022, and it made April highs twice, most recently in 2014.CBOT December corn months of highsSAME SETUP? New-crop corn futures bounced in early May 2013 on slow U.S. corn planting, but a new low was eventually set later that month. December corn futures in 2014 lost 38% between the April high and October low, more than the 32% decline in 2013. Money managers' net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsFOOD FOR THOUGHTExceptionally bearish quarterly stock reports in March and September plagued corn futures in 2013, but while the market was likely misjudging U.S. corn demand, so was the Department of Agriculture.

Since then, the combined net long hit an all-time high near 840,000 futures and options contracts in April 2022. In the July contracts, soybeans and soymeal fell 5%, corn and soyoil shed around 6% and CBOT wheat plunged 8%. The only period in which funds were more bearish toward CBOT wheat was between July 2016 and January 2018. ADDITIONAL PRESSUREThe downturn continued for corn and wheat futures between Wednesday and Friday, likely increasing bears’ recent momentum in the grains. Most-active CBOT wheat fell nearly 3% over the last three sessions and featured a dip on Friday to the lowest levels since July 2021.

As of Wednesday, CBOT soy futures had closed lower for six consecutive sessions, losing a total of 5%. Most-active CBOT soybean futuresHistorically low port premiums for Brazilian soybeans have weighed heavily on prices since they suggest supplies are currently outpacing demand. Within the last few days, CBOT soybean futures began trading at the lowest levels for the date in three years, something that was last applicable in 2020. Brazilian agency Conab sees Brazil’s total corn crop near a record 125 million tonnes versus last year’s high of 113 million. Brazil’s second corn crop is seen topping 95 million tonnes this year, a mark the country’s total corn crop first achieved in 2016-17.

In the week ended April 18, money managers increased their net long position in CBOT corn futures and options to 49,434 contracts from 27,112 a week earlier, marking their most bullish corn view since Feb. 28. Funds have been net corn buyers for five consecutive weeks for the first time since September. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsBut some of those longs may have already been scrapped in the last three sessions, as CBOT corn futures fell 4.5% in the July contract and 4% in the December. Money managers trimmed their net short to 102,983 futures and options contracts from 104,247 a week earlier. That is their most bearish CBOT wheat view for the time of year since 2017.

Managed money net position in Chicago wheat futures and optionsMost-active CBOT wheat futures had shed 2.5% in the period. They also reduced their net long in Minneapolis wheat to 245 futures and options contracts from 694 a week earlier. wheat rose 1.2% and CBOT wheat gained 1.3%. CBOT wheat has also displayed considerable weakness versus CBOT corn, as front-month wheat’s advantage to corn slipped below 15 cents per bushel Thursday, the lowest since July 2021 and below long-term averages. The record net long is 154,550 contracts set in April 2019, and it is very rare for funds to be short cattle.

In the week ended March 21, money managers reduced their net long position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 110,786 contracts from 127,661 a week earlier. In the week ended March 21, most-active CBOT soybean futures fell 1.8%, new-crop November soybeans shed 3.2%, soymeal lost 4.3% but soyoil added 0.1%. GRAINSMoney managers were modest buyers of CBOT corn futures and options in the week ended March 21 after selling nearly 300,000 contracts over the previous four weeks. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsIn CBOT wheat, money managers cut their net short for a second consecutive week, to 86,500 futures and options contracts from 95,257 a week earlier. In the week ended March 21, most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% but CBOT wheat fell 1.9%.

The recent losses are far from records by magnitude, though the selling is the most extreme for new-crop beans in March since 2008. Over 28 sessions between April and May 2019, new-crop beans were lower in 22, a 79% losing rate. New-crop beans had been down in both June 2021 and July 2022 by around 13% within a 13-session span. The last comparable time was mid-March 2020, when RSI on new-crop beans remained below 17 for three consecutive sessions. CBOT November soybean futures with RSIKaren Braun is a market analyst for Reuters.

Most-active CBOT soybeans on Wednesday fell to their lowest level since early December, ending nearly 6% off this month’s high. Money managers’ biggest weekly dumping of CBOT soy futures and options was about 61,400 contracts in November 2019, requiring double the weekly record for funds to be flat by the next report. Net selling in corn recently blew out a weekly record at more than 147,000 contracts in the last week of February, well past the prior high near 104,000. Despite catastrophic crop problems in Argentina, Brazil’s enormous harvest and equally enormous export program have recently weighed on the soybean market. However, the potential size of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop remains up for debate with farmers’ planting plans not yet known.

Most-active CBOT futures contracts all traded lower in the week ended March 14, and losses are as follows: corn 2.1%, soybeans 1.4%, wheat 0.3%, soymeal 1.4% and soyoil 4.2%. Corn and soyoil notched multi-month lows during the week and wheat dropped to its lowest level in a year-and-a-half. Money managers were net sellers of more than 75,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts in the week ended March 14, establishing a net short of 54,134 contracts, their first bearish stance since August 2020. Managed money net position in CBOT corn futures and optionsMoney managers also flipped to a net short in CBOT soybean oil as of March 14, their first since June 2020. In the week ended March 21, which represents the next set of CoT data, most-active CBOT corn futures rose 1.5% and soyoil added 0.1%.

However, they pushed their bullish soybean meal bets to a new record and bought a respectable amount of beans, though investors’ pessimism toward CBOT wheat increased even further. They also reduced their net long in CBOT soybean oil to 20,526 futures and options contracts from 28,093 in the prior week. Through March 7, money managers increased their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options by nearly 9,000 contracts to 100,636 contracts, their most bearish since January 2018. They also sold more than 3,500 Minneapolis wheat contracts through March 7, flipping to a net short of 3,029. Between March 7 and March 16, most-active CBOT futures traded as follows: corn -0.2%, soybeans -1.6%, wheat +0.1%, meal -2.8%, soyoil -1.6%.

LATEST DATAIn the week ended Feb. 21, money managers cut nearly 19,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts off their net long, which fell to 215,928 contracts. They also increased their net long in CBOT soyoil by nearly 12,000 futures and options contracts, and the resulting net long was 34,301 contracts, a one-month high. When adding other reportable traders’ net long, the overall speculative soymeal net long is also a record at 173,690 contracts. and Minneapolis wheat futures and options contracts as of Feb. 21. Most-active CBOT futures hit some milestone lows on Friday.

LATEST DATAThe week ended Feb. 7, the last available week of CoT data, featured mild declines across most-active CBOT corn, wheat, soybean and soy product futures. In the four weeks ended March 7, most-active CBOT corn is down 6% and CBOT wheat has fallen 7%. Daily fund estimates collected by Reuters suggest that between Feb. 8 and March 7, commodity funds were net sellers of 42,500 CBOT corn futures and 38,000 CBOT wheat futures. Funds’ net long in soybean meal would be record-large per the trade estimates. CBOT corn and wheat have recently traded as if the Ukraine grain export deal will be extended before its March 18 expiration despite Russia’s resistance.

Although winter weather has been gentle to Ukraine’s crops, the ongoing conflict has reduced the country’s 2023 winter wheat plantings 22% below last year’s harvested area. CROP CONDITIONSRecent rains for parched winter wheat in the U.S. Plains have also added to wheat market pressure, though updated crop conditions released late on Monday suggest risks remain. Winter wheat in Texas and Oklahoma is not doing well, but it is better than a year ago. This week, Oklahoma is at 36% GE versus 17% a month ago, 31% in November and 11% a year ago. Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma planted half of this year’s U.S. winter wheat acres, and producers there are hoping yields will rebound from last year’s drought.

As of Jan. 31, money managers held a net long of 219,924 CBOT corn futures and options contracts, a net long of 175,504 contracts in CBOT soybeans, a net long of 140,943 contracts in CBOT soymeal, a net long of 31,224 contracts in CBOT soyoil, and a net short of 63,628 contracts in CBOT wheat. That included 18,127 contracts of corn, soybeans 29,242 contracts, soymeal 5,440 contracts and CBOT wheat 10,305 contracts. Funds’ Jan. 31 net long in corn was the highest since November, and their net short in CBOT wheat as of Jan. 24 had been the strongest since May 2019. Daily fund estimates collected by Reuters suggest that between Feb. 1 and Feb. 24, commodity funds were net sellers of 26,500 CBOT corn futures and 34,500 CBOT wheat futures. Money managers have not been net sellers of more than 25,000 CBOT wheat futures and options combined over a four-week span since late 2021.

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