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Wall Street should still being watching out for a possible recession, said strategist Paul Dietrich. If temporary government jobs were removed from the lastjobs report, unemployment would be 4.5%, Dietrich said. AdvertisementThe US is riding high, but one strategist says economic optimism will eventually be cut short as unseen labor weakness bites. AdvertisementThat plays into Dietrich's broader point that rising unemployment can be a sure sign of recession. Though other analysts have also scrutinized the unemployment rate, its importance has been questioned in today's unusual economic cycle.
Persons: Paul Dietrich, Dietrich, , Riley, Wall, joblessness, Dietrich isn't Organizations: Service, Riley Wealth, US
Small stocks historically see big upward moves near presidential elections, Cantor Fitzgerald says. AdvertisementSmall-cap stocks are set for a catch-up amid a confluence of perfectly aligned factors ahead of the presidential election, Cantor Fitzgerald says. Johnston also forecasts increasingly higher odds of a Trump win, which would benefit small stocks even more. Those factors would increase investors' confidence and encourage more rotation into riskier, underperforming small stocks. AdvertisementJohnston's comments come as others have warned of uncertainty looming over markets ahead of the upcoming presidential election.
Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald, , Russell, Donald Trump, Stocks, Eric Johnston, Johnston, Kamala Harris, Harris, Trump Organizations: Trump, Service, Democratic Locations: The Russell, RealClearPolitics, China
Getting ready for the "two problematic stories," Wells Fargo and JPMorgan , which came later in the morning, took some real digging. ET – Wells Fargo shares turned and started inching up. With what you saw in Wells Fargo and JP Morgan on Friday. Think like this: When the psychology of the market changes, people don't want to bang out of Wells Fargo, they want to get in. But there is no doubt that Wells Fargo at 11 times forward earnings now seems a little silly given that the background is so positive.
Persons: Larry Fink, Wells, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jamie Dimon, Jeff Marks, JP Morgan, Scharf, It's, Warren Buffett, Morgan Stanley, Eli Lilly, haven't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Squawk, Virginia Sherwood Organizations: BlackRock, JPMorgan, Wall, Club, Wells Fargo, Elon, SpaceX, Federal, New York Stock Exchange, Fed, Bank of America, Boston, Walmart, Costco, Semiconductors, Enterprise, JFrog, Microsoft, , Dow, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Wells Fargo, NII, U.S
Great news for Club stocks Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley : The rebound in investment banking isn't over yet. We'll find out to what extent when Wells Fargo reports earnings on Oct. 11 and Morgan Stanley delivers quarterly results on Oct. 16. MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley (MS) year-to-date performance For Morgan Stanley, a resurgence in its investment banking division is crucial to our investment thesis and why we stuck with it. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date Morgan Stanley's IB business is much larger than Wells Fargo's. Wells Fargo, which has a strong wealth management franchise, is branching out to take a slice of the IB pie.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, We'll, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rebecca Brokmeier, Brokmeier, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, underperformance, Dan Simkowitz, Jim, We've, Charlie Scharf, Jim Cramer's, William McChesney Martin Jr, Anna Moneymaker Organizations: Club, Wells, Federal Reserve, Wall, P Global Market Intelligence, KPMG, Global, Fed, National Association for Business, CNBC, Morgan Stanley's IB, IB, Bloomberg News, Federal, Getty Locations: U.S, Nashville , Tennessee, Wells, Wells Fargo, Washington , DC
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Winning month and quarterU.S. markets rose on Monday to finish a winning month and quarter. In a filing, Cerebras reported a net loss of $127.2 million on revenue of $78.7 million for 2023. Markets predict measured response from IranIsrael has escalated fighting with Lebanese militia group Hezbollah, hitting Iran's proxy network across the Middle East.
Persons: Tesla, Jerome Powell, Powell, Cerebras, Michael Santoli Organizations: CNBC, . Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Nvidia, Systems, Nasdaq, Lebanese, Hezbollah Locations: Milan, Stellantis, Iran Israel, Iran, U.S, Beijing
After two years of the double pain of inflation and high interest rates, those things are normalizing. Sure, jobs were plentiful and the economy was growing, but the combination of high prices and high interest rates felt demoralizing. It’s hard to overstate how much interest rates can change the economic mood, Brendan Duke, a senior director for economic policy at the Center for American Progress, told me. And while both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have proposed ways to increase the housing supply, the process will take years. “There are economic trends like falling interest rates, and there are policies like making an investment in housing supply that can move the needle,” Duke says.
Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Matt Phillips, Dow, That’d, Brendan Duke, ‘ it’s, ’ ”, that’s, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, It’s, ” Duke, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Dow, Wall, Center for American Progress, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
Lee cites declining margin debt and a dovish Fed as key resons to be bullish on stocks. "We really haven't seen tops until margin debt actually starts to really rollover," Lee said. That "firepower" refers to the fact that FINRA margin debt declined in August to $797 billion, well below its October 2021 peak of $936 billion. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 surged 14% in the first half of 2024, putting this into play. The data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered an average second-half gain of 9.8% under such circumstances, with an 83% win ratio.
Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, , Tom Lee, there's, Lee crunched, Volcker Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve's move to start cutting interest rates bodes well for dividend-paying stocks, and Morgan Stanley thinks several companies are poised to join their ranks. "Equity investors are seeking durable, higher yielding dividends as market volatility is expected to continue throughout the easing cycle," wrote Morgan Stanley strategist Todd Castagno in a report last Friday. Morgan Stanley drew up a list of companies that might have what it takes to start paying dividends, drawn from stocks that boast net cash and generate a free cash flow exceeding 3%. Instacart was also seen as a potential dividend initiator by Morgan Stanley. Other companies that Morgan Stanley highlighted as potential dividend initiators include short-term vacation rental company Airbnb and biotech play United Therapeutics .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Todd Castagno, Castagno, Morgan, Piper Sandler, James Fish, Instacart, Raymond James, Josh Beck Organizations: Equity, Companies, United Therapeutics
Gold rallies to record high on U.S. rate-cut optimism
  + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilogram gold bars are displayed for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International headquarters in Thailand on January 13, 2016. Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened amid prospects of a U.S. interest rate cut next week, while palladium has gained 15% so far this week. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,565 per ounce, as of 0258 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,567.93 earlier in the session. The dollar fell to a one-week low, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Palladium climbed 0.16% to $1,048.06 and was headed for the best week since Dec. 11, 2023, fueled by export curb concerns.
Persons: Bullion, Tim Waterer, Vladimir Putin Organizations: KCM, Monetary Fund, Fed, West Locations: Thailand, U.S, Moscow
Analysts at major Wall Street banks are getting more cautious on chip darling ASML , raising concerns about the critical chip equipment maker's demand outlook. Earlier this week, investment bank UBS downgraded ASML to "neutral" and cut its price target on the stock to 900 euros ($1,000.78) from 1,050 euros previously. Other Wall Street banks have subsequently come out with their own respective analyses on ASML — and they're more downbeat than they were before. The bank remains bullish on the stock, though, keeping ASML in its top pick for EU semiconductor equipment stocks. UBS cautioned ASML's machines could face a slowdown in demand due to an "architecture shift" to gate all around architecture, or GAA.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, ASML, ASML's, Morgan Stanley's, EUV, Biden, Christophe Fouquet, Jefferies Organizations: UBS, Intel, Bank of America, ASML's, Samsung, Nvidia, SK Hynix, Base Management, Dutch, Citi, Investment Locations: ASML, U.S, China, New York
JMP Securities upgraded Warby Parker to market outperform, calling for more than 40% upside. The financial firm upgraded shares of the streaming technology provider to buy from neutral. Analyst Michael Morris also established a 12-month price target of $75, which is approximately 21% higher than where shares closed on Thursday. Peloton stock is down 25% on the year. His price target of $20 implies upside of 44% from Thursday's close.
Persons: Warby Parker, Michael Morris, Morris, — Lisa Kailai Han, Wells, Wells Fargo, Edward Kelly, Kelly, BJ's, BJ, Lisa Kailai Han, Piper Sandler, Anna Andreeva, Andreeva, it's, Piper, Doug Anmuth, Anmuth, Nicholas Jones, Jones, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, JMP Securities, JPMorgan, Guggenheim, BJ's, BJ's Wholesale, LT, Costco, CF Subs, Revenue, Warby, Warby Parker Inc Locations: ROKU, Chewy, Thursday's
Yahya Sinwar (C), Palestinian leader of Hamas in Gaza Strip, greets people during an event marking the 35th anniversary of the establishment of Hamas in Gaza City, Gaza on December 14, 2022. Ali Jadallah | Anadolu | Getty ImagesHamas on Tuesday appointed Yahya Sinwar as the leader of its political wing following the assassination of its former political chief, Ismail Haniyeh. The Middle East has been on edge following the killing of Haniyeh in Iran on July 31, which Iran and Hamas blamed on Israel. In 2015 he was designated a terrorist by the U.S. government, and in 2017 he was elected the leader of Hamas. Yahya Sinwar chairs a meeting with leaders of Palestinian factions at his office in Gaza City, April 13, 2022.
Persons: Yahya Sinwar, Ali Jadallah, Ismail Haniyeh, Michael Horowitz, Le, Sinwar, , Victor Tricaud, Tricaud, Butcher, Khan, Gilad Shalit, Adel Hana, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, intel, Le Beck, Palestinian, Israel, Hamas, CNBC, U.S ., Criminal Court Locations: Gaza, Gaza City, Haniyeh, Iran, Israel, Qatar
Now, the broader conservative movement is trying to figure out what it means for a potential second Trump administration. “Since the Fall of 2023, President Trump’s campaign made it clear that only President Trump and the campaign, and NOT any other organization or former staff, represent policies for the second term,” Alvarez said in a statement. Still, staffing the administration could be a major place where Project 2025’s work plays into a Trump administration, even if the Trump campaign swatted the effort aside. “If Trump is re-elected, as we hope he will be, there will be thousands of appointments,” said Steven Groves, who helped put together the Project 2025 policy book. Groves, who helped put together Project 2025 policy framework, said: “I understand politics.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump’s, , Trump, Paul Dans, Marc Short, Mike Pence, president’s, Danielle Alvarez, ” Alvarez, President Trump, , Chris Christie, Stephen Moore, Edwin Feulner, Sen, Bill Hagerty, Linda McMahon, McMahon, Hagerty, Lara Trump, ” Trump, Steven Groves, bodes, Moore, Ronald Reagan, Groves, It’s, ” Groves Organizations: GOP, Trump, Heritage Foundation, Republican, Democratic, New, New Jersey Gov, General Services Administration, Trump America, Policy, Republican National Committee, The Washington Times, Republicans, , Fox News, Social Locations: Trump, New Jersey
However, the expected AI-driven boom in new iPhone sales does represent a clear positive catalyst on the near-term horizon. Products iPhone sales were down slightly in the quarter. Services All-time revenue record, with an all-time record set in developed markets and a June quarter record set in emerging markets. Services are expected to grow at a double-digit rate similar to the rate seen in Apple's fiscal 2024 first quarter. A person poses holding the original iPhone and the new iPhone 15 outside the Fifth Avenue Apple Store in New York City ahead of the launch of Apple’s new iPhone 15, Sept. 22, 2023.
Persons: Apple, iPhones, Tim Cook, we're, Luca Maestri, AirPods, Maestri, Cook, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Alexi Rosenfeld Organizations: Apple, Apple Intelligence, . Research, MacBook Air, iPad, Apple Watch, Services, CNBC, Getty Locations: Greater China, China, Spain, Poland, Mexico, Indonesia, Philippines, New York City
"Deadpool & Wolverine," costarring Hugh Jackman as Wolverine, is the only MCU film hitting theaters this year. AdvertisementWhile it might seem risky for the studio conglomerate to put all its eggs into one R-rated basket, Reynolds' Deadpool franchise — and Reynolds himself — are uniquely positioned to revitalize the genre. The 'Deadpool' franchise has been consistently lucrativeRyan Reynolds as Wade Wilson/Deadpool in "Deadpool & Wolverine." Ryan Reynolds' business acumen has helped Deadpool thriveRyan Reynolds has turned the Deadpool character into a shrewd marketing play. His good friend Taylor Swift even wrote a gushing post on her Instagram Stories about "Deadpool & Wolverine" with a link to buy tickets.
Persons: , Ryan Reynolds, Wade Wilson, Deadpool, Marvel Jesus, Reynolds, costarring Hugh Jackman, It's, Hugh Jackman, Wolverine, Logan, Jay Maidment, Sam Raimi's, Strange, Oscar, Jonathan Majors, Kang the, Marvel, Robert Downey Jr, He'll, Doctor Doom, it's, Nicholas Hunt, He's, who's, Taylor Swift, Paul Mullin Organizations: Service, Marvel, Business, Disney, Fox, Century Studios, Marvel Studios, Rotten Tomatoes, Rotten, Deadpool, Hollywood, Aviation, Mint Mobile, Welsh football, Wrexham AFC —, San Diego Comic, Wrexham AFC, Wrexham, Belgian, Prix Locations: Welshpool
Read previewAll eyes are on Meta Platforms with the company set to report its second-quarter earnings results after the market close on Wednesday. AdvertisementHere's what Wall Street expects from Meta's second-quarter earnings report. Looking forward, Post highlighted that a potential TikTok ban in early 2025 could provide a big boost to Meta's advertising business. Advertisement"With political spend, and potential TikTok ban in 1Q'25, Meta could also see an ad spend benefit in 2H'24," Post said. The company also has the potential to offer guidance on the monetization potential of its licensing of Llama, its open-source large language model.
Persons: , Meta, Justin Post, Ronald Josey, Josey, Wells, Wells Fargo, Ken Gawrelski, Gawrelski, Mizuho, James Lee, Lee, Mandeep Singh, Singh Organizations: Service, Meta, Nvidia, it's, Business, Bank of America, Citi, Cannes, Mizuho, Bloomberg Intelligence Locations: monetizing, Wells Fargo
Spotify shares jumped as much as 14% on Tuesday after it reported earnings. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementSpotify stock jumped Tuesday as the company's latest earnings breezed past expectations and delivered its highest profit ever in the second quarter. Spotify's record profits were driven by 12% growth in its premium subscribers and a 13% rise in its ad sales. AdvertisementIn December, Spotify laid off 17% of its staff and cut two of its most popular podcasts, "Heavyweight" and "Stolen."
Persons: , paring, Daniel Ek, Ek Organizations: Spotify, Service
Strong numbers in the company's search and cloud businesses more than offset the slight misses in the YouTube and network units. Cloud recorded a couple of big firsts: exceeding $10 billion in revenue, along with $1 billion in operating income. Whereas investors were — and many still are — concerned about what generative AI might mean for Alphabet's search revenue, the opposite appears to be the case, at least for now. Google Cloud revenue grew roughly 28% to more than $10 billion for the first time. Strong numbers in the company's search and cloud businesses more than offset the slight misses in the YouTube and network units.
Persons: we're, capex, Sundar Pichai, Pichai, Philipp Schindler, Schindler, Ruth Porat, Eli Lilly, Anat Ashkenazi, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Loren Elliott Organizations: YouTube, Microsoft, Club, Nvidia, Lens, CTV, Nielsen, Google, buybacks, CNBC, Government, Society, Calif, Bloomberg, Getty, Meta Locations: That's, U.S, Stanford
CNBC Daily Open: Biden drops out, endorses Harris
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 01, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. Big Tech faces the challenge of rekindling Wall Street's enthusiasm after a $900 billion tech rout.
Persons: Sebastian Raedler, haven't, Stephanie Pope, Max, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Elon Musk, Dan Ives, Lina Khan, Khan, Ives, CrowdStrike, Fred Imbert, , Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Kevin Williams, Leslie Josephs, Josie Rozzelle, Kevin Breuninger, Dan Mangan, Zev Fima, Spencer Kimball, Lim Hui Jie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Bank of America, Boeing, Farnborough, Trump, Microsoft, Securities, Big Tech, Google, Apple Locations: New York City, London, New York, New Delhi, Washington
CNBC Daily Open: Biden drops out
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Starbucks stake Activist investor Elliott Management has taken a substantial stake in Starbucks and is engaging with management to boost the company's share price, according to the Wall Street Journal. Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the markets wherever you are. Big Tech faces the challenge of rekindling Wall Street's enthusiasm after a $900 billion tech rout.
Persons: haven't, Stephanie Pope, Max, Elliott Management, Laxman Narasimhan, Howard Schultz, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Elon Musk, Dan Ives, Lina Khan, Khan, Ives, CrowdStrike, Fred Imbert, , Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Kevin Williams, Leslie Josephs, Josie Rozzelle, Kevin Breuninger, Dan Mangan, Zev Fima, Spencer Kimball, Rohan Goswami Organizations: CNBC, Dow, Boeing, Farnborough, Wall Street, Starbucks, Trump, Microsoft, Securities, Big Tech, Google, Apple Locations: London, New York, New Delhi, Washington
UNH 1M mountain UnitedHealth stock over the past month. Think Centene , Molina Healthcare , UnitedHealth and Humana , among others. Managed-care companies historically buck the broader trend of health stocks and outperform in the first year after an election, according to Raymond James. Unlike UnitedHealth, shares have fallen — down 3% — since the June debate. Raymond James sees Oscar Health , HCA Healthcare and Tenet Healthcare as beneficiaries of a victory by the left.
Persons: Raymond James, Chris Meekins, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, quieted, Biden, Meekins, Centene, Trump, Bernstein, Jefferies, David Windley, UnitedHealth, Ben Hendrix, Optum, John Ransom, Piper Sandler, Ransom, Lance Wilkes, Oscar, — Ransom, Oscar's Organizations: Affordable, Trump, UnitedHealth, Republican, Biden, GOP, Federal Trade Commission, Department of Justice, ACA, Medicare, Molina Healthcare, RBC Capital Markets, CVS Health, RBC Capital, DOJ, Humana, Healthcare, GoodRx Holdings, Democratic, Oscar Health, Tenet Healthcare, Aetna Locations: Molina, UnitedHealth, U.S, Thursday's, Florida, Texas
Bank of America said this week that a slate of stocks is poised for upside as the summer heats up. CNBC Pro combed through Bank of America's research to find buy-rated stocks that are too attractive to ignore. Carnival Carnival is coming off better-than-expected earnings in late June. Bank of America analyst Andrew Didora said in a recent note that this bodes well for the stock in the months ahead. Palantir "We're still in the early innings of AI adoption and expect Palantir (PLTR) to continue to see significant upside from this trend.
Persons: Andrew Didora, Didora, Jason Kupferberg, Kupferberg, Mariana Perez Mora, Palantir, Mora, We're Organizations: of America, Nvidia, CNBC, Bank of, Palantir Technologies, Bank of America, CCL, Palantir, U.S . Department of Defense, Blackwell,
Gold eyes second straight weekly rise; spotlight on U.S. payrolls
  + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices edged up on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly gain, while traders awaited U.S. employment data to gauge the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts. Gold prices edged up on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly gain, while traders awaited U.S. employment data to gauge the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts. Spot gold rose 0.2% at $2,359.73 per ounce, as of 0204 GMT and was up more than 1% for the week. "Gold has been in consolidation mode above $2,300, which bodes well for potential further price gains once we eventually move towards a lower interest rate environment." Palladium gained 0.4% to $1,021.75 and headed for a third consecutive weekly gain.
Persons: Tim Waterer, KCM, nonfarm, Waterer Organizations: Federal, U.S, Traders, FedWatch
Trump's proposed tariffs would benefit only the wealthiest Americans, Paul Krugman wrote in a new op-ed. Goldman Sachs also sees higher tariffs triggering sizable Fed interest-rate hikes, Goldman Sachs says. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementDonald Trump has pitched sweeping tariffs as a win for the US consumer, but only the wealthiest Americans will benefit from rising trade barriers, Paul Krugman wrote in The New York Times. In Tuesday's opinion piece, the Nobel-winning economist took aim at Trump's recently floated idea to replace the US income tax with higher import duties.
Persons: Trump's, Paul Krugman, Goldman Sachs, , Donald Trump, Krugman Organizations: Service, The New York Times, Business
The second half of 2024 has arrived with investors hoping for more gains ahead. The S & P 500 popped 14.5% in the first six months of the year, reaching record highs. Such a strong start to the year historically bodes well for the market in the second half. CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall noted the S & P 500 averages a 7.9% gain in the second half after surging more than 10% in the first six months of the year. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Despite the strong gains, there are still opportunities to buy stocks at a discount.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Brian Evans, Hess, Lisa Kailai, Morgan Stanley, Blackwell, Joseph Moore Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Research, CNBC Pro, FedEx, DiamondBack Energy, Chevron, Nvidia Locations: Friday's
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