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☆ Turkey's inflation rate cools despite steep lira plunge
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's monthly inflation rate for June came in lower than expected, despite the continued collapse of the lira currency following the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey's consumer price index rose 3.92% month-on-month, official data showed Wednesday. On a year-on-year basis, inflation rose 38.21%, also slightly lower than Reuters' forecasts of 39.47%. "The lira freefall starts to take its toll once again as it reignites cost pressures," he said. Ash added that the central bank will need to "work very hard to bring inflation meaningfully down from here."

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bartosz Sawicki, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Reuters, CNBC

☆ Turkey's central bank hikes interest rate to 15% in dramatic U-turn to tackle 40% inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Residents waiting at a bus stop under a large Turkish flag in Istanbul, Turkey, on Sunday, April 30, 2023. Turkey's central bank jacked up the country's key interest rate Thursday, almost doubling it from 8.5% to 15% as the new economic administration of recently re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embarked on a dramatic monetary policy U-turn. The bank said that there will be further gradual monetary tightening until the inflation picture in the country improves. The whopping 650-basis-point rate rise is the country's first since March 2021, but was below analyst expectations of a 1,150-basis-point hike to 20%. Not enough," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in an note via email.

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Timothy Ash, — Organizations: Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey's

☆ Smaller-than-expected Turkey rate hike hits lira, bonds
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan delivered a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike at her first rate meeting on Thursday, sending the lira and the country's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds sharply lower. The bank lifted its key rate 650 basis points to 15% compared to the median of 21% expected in a Reuters poll. "On the other hand they are promising more tightening ahead... so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt." "I am more worried about the medium-term outlook which is likely to see further lira depreciation. TIM ASH, EM SENIOR SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT"Ouch - disappointing.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, PIOTR MATYS, Erkan, Erdogan, PETER KISLER, JON HARRISON, Amruta Khandekar, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Thomson

LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.

Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar

☆ Turkish lira crashes as new government sets sights on ‘rational’ policies
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded interest rate cuts under Erdogan’s unorthodox policies. Bankers say the lira’s continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported Monday. Erkan would be the country’s fifth central bank chief in four years, after Erdogan fired previous governors as part of frequent policy shifts.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, ”, Tim Ash, “, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM Locations: Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey

Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded rate cuts under Erdogan's unorthodox policies. "I think we are seeing the impact of Simsek pushing (the Turkish central bank) for rational policy." Bankers say the lira's continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in December of 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tim Ash, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara, Huseyin Hayatsever, Jonathan Spicer, Ali Kucukgocmen, Tom Hogue, Christina Fincher Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey, Jorgelina, Rosario, London

☆ Erdogan's new pick for Turkish finance minister has markets hoping for economic orthodoxy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has named former economy chief Mehmet Simsek as his new treasury and finance minister. In the unveiling of his new cabinet, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan named former economy chief Mehmet Simsek as his new treasury and economy minister, leading to some optimism that the country will now forge a new economic path. Simsek was known for his market friendly policies, and subsequently went on to become the country's deputy prime minister from 2015 to 2018 after his stint as Turkey's finance minister. Simsek creating a new team in the key economy portfolio would imply that he will have "pretty strong control over broader economic policy," BlueBay Asset Management's Senior EM Sovereign Strategist Timothy Ash said via e-mail. "The Turkish economy has a chance of pulling back from the brink," he continued.

Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erdogan, Timothy Ash

☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

☆ Exclusive: Turkey's new cabinet almost certain to include Simsek, four sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Simsek was highly regarded by financial markets when he served as finance minister and deputy prime minister between 2009 and 2018. After chairing a final meeting of his old cabinet on Wednesday, Erdogan will announce new ministerial roles by Saturday, officials said. The new cabinet is almost certain to include his spokesman Ibrahim Kalin and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, they added. One of the sources, a senior official with knowledge of the subject, said Erdogan and Simsek had spoken for 2-1/2 hours. The same official said former minister Cevdet Yilmaz could take up the role of Treasury and Finance Minister if Simsek were to become a vice president.

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Ibrahim Kalin, Hakan Fidan, Nureddin Nebati, Guillaume Tresca, Cevdet Yilmaz, Lutfi Elvan, Sahap Kavcioglu, Timothy Ash, Ash, Amruta Khandekar, Daren Butler, Jonathan Spicer, Toby Chopra, Catherine Evans Organizations: Intelligence, Lira, FX, Reuters, Treasury, Finance, Emerging, Generali Investments, AK, Simsek, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: ANKARA

☆ Turkish lira continues slide to new record lows following Erdogan's election victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

People walking next to a Turkish national flag at the historical grand bazaar in Istanbul. The Turkish lira slumped to yet another all-time low Tuesday, extending its slide after the re-election of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The currency was last trading at 20.15 against the greenback at around 5 a.m. Tuesday morning local time, surpassing Monday's lows. Turkey's Election Board on Sunday confirmed that Erdogan won Turkey's 2023 presidential election with 52.14% of the votes, while his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 47.86%. He subsequently went on to become the country's deputy prime minister from 2015 to 2018.

☆ Turkish lira teeters near record low as Erdogan secures victory
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A U.S. one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira wobbled near record lows against the dollar as President Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in the country's presidential election on Sunday, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. The currency was at 20.05 to the dollar during Asian hours, just shy of the 20.06 record low hit on Friday. "Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy." "Erdogan is unlikely to embrace an outright economic orthodox approach," Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at advisory firm Teneo said in emailed comments.

☆ Turkey's lira sinks to near record low as Erdogan is reelected
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Turkish lira sank Monday as incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured his victory in the 2023 presidential election, extending his rule into a third decade in power. "We have a pretty pessimistic outlook on the Turkish Lira as a result of Erdogan retaining office after the election," Wells Fargo's Emerging Markets Economist and FX Strategist Brendan McKenna told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." He expects Turkey's unorthodox monetary and economic policy frameworks to remain in place going forward. Turkey's monetary policy places an emphasis on the pursuit of growth and export competition rather than taming inflation, and Erdogan endorses the unconventional view that raising interest rates increases inflation. "With limited FX reserves and massively negative real interest rates the pressure on the lira is heavy," Ash continued.

☆ Putin congratulates 'dear friend' Erdogan as NATO's Turkey challenge looks set to stay
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the leaders that congratulated Erdogan on his win on Monday, calling him a "dear friend," according to the Kremlin. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia August 5, 2022. Putin, in his congratulatory message Monday, praised Erdogan's efforts to "conduct an independent foreign policy," according to his spokespeople. The outlook is mixed among political and economic analysts inside and outside of Turkey whether Erdogan is bad news for the future of NATO. "Putin clearly wants NATO to fragment, and Erdogan in charge increases the likelihood of NATO fragmenting," Harris said after the election's first round in mid-May.

Morgan Stanley co-presidents Ted Pick and Andy Saperstein, and head of investment management Dan Simkowitz, are widely seen as contenders for the top job. Morgan Stanley shares were little changed in early trading, down 0.9%. The less volatile business of wealth management accounted for 45% of firm's revenue in the first quarter. Morgan Stanley's first-quarter profit beat expectations as rising revenue from wealth management offset declines in investment banking and trading. Simkowitz, the eldest of the three at 58, is head of investment management at Morgan Stanley and co-head of the firm's strategy and execution.

☆ Can Gulf money save Turkey's economy?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Idil Karsit | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey has become a top destination for wealthy Gulf tourists injecting much-needed dollars into the country's economy. Between 2016 and 2019, Qatar increased its investments in Turkey by nearly 500%, replacing countries like Germany and Russia as its second largest foreign direct investor. Gulf states offered relief, either in the form of currency swap lines or direct deposits. It borrows money from the so-called friendly countries to finance its short-term capital needs. Watch the video above to understand why Turkey needs Gulf money.

☆ FDIC prepares to place First Republic under receivership
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Greg Roumeliotis | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

April 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is preparing to place First Republic Bank (FRC.N) under receivership imminently, a person familiar with the matter said on Friday, sending shares of the lender down nearly 50% in extended trading. The FDIC asked banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.N) to submit final bids for First Republic Bank by Sunday, Bloomberg News reported on Saturday. If the San Francisco-based lender falls into receivership, it would be the third U.S. bank to collapse since March. Shares of some other regional banks also fell, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) down 2% after the bell while Western Alliance (WAL.N) was down 0.7%. "The rest of the regional bank system feels like it's in a different place than where FRC is," he said.

☆ FDIC prepares to place First Republic under receivership -source
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Greg Roumeliotis | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is preparing to place First Republic Bank under receivership imminently, a person familiar with the matter said on Friday, sending shares of the lender down nearly 50% in extended trading. A person stands in front of a First Republic Bank branch in San Francisco, California, U.S. April 28, 2023. First Republic said earlier this week its deposits had slumped by more than $100 billion in the first quarter. First Republic and FDIC representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Shares of some other regional banks also fell with PacWest Bancorp down 2% after the bell while Western Alliance was down 0.7%.

☆ US Fed plans broad revamp of bank oversight in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Many commentators linked the lessons learned from the earlier crisis to the ongoing concerns about First Republic Bank. INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL BANKERS CEO BETH ZORC"The IIB commends the Federal Reserve's timeliness of producing its report on SVB. "There are similarities between SVB's situation and what is happening with First Republic Bank: both are affected by the rapid movement of very large sums of money." A potential First Republic Bank failure could similarly present a risk to the long-term investment strategy of high net-worth individuals." "It feels isolated, than the rest of the regional bank system, feels like it's in a different place than where FRC is."

☆ Exclusive: EU to push for its debt to be included in government bond indexes- official
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Index inclusion "is something we are discussing with market participants at the moment, while we are also doing our internal analysis," the official said, looking at how the EU fulfills index providers' criteria. EU bonds are included in broad bond indexes but inclusion in dedicated government bond indexes compiled by the likes of Bloomberg, JPMorgan or FTSE Russell would be a game changer, as trillions of dollars of investor funds tracking the indexes would effectively become forced buyers. Big investors are also calling for index providers to treat the EU as a government. The EU official noted the bloc has elements of a sovereign, such as a budget and at least indirect taxing powers through member states' contributions. Cosimo Marasciulo, head of fixed income absolute return at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it was also calling for EU inclusion in government bond indexes.

"Weakness continues to develop in commercial real estate office," Wells Fargo Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said on a call with analysts. Stress in the commercial real estate sector could have broad implications for banks and the economy, as losses emanating there can tighten credit availability and exacerbate a downturn. More than $1.4 trillion in U.S. CRE loans will mature by 2027, with some $270 billion coming due this year, according to real estate data provider Trepp. As the epicenter for the technology industry downturn, California's CRE market has been hit hard. Citigroup and Wells Fargo declined to comment for this article.

☆ Ukraine's Naftogaz says Russia told to pay $5 billion for seizing Crimea assets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The logo of Ukraine's state energy company Naftogaz is seen outside the company's headquarters in central Kyiv, Ukraine October 18, 2021. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich/File PhotoKYIV, April 13 (Reuters) - Ukraine's state-owned gas company Naftogaz said on Thursday that Moscow had been ordered by an arbitration court in The Hague to pay $5 billion in compensation for unlawfully expropriating its assets in Russian-annexed Crimea in 2014. "Despite Russia's attempts to obstruct justice, the Arbitration Tribunal ordered Russia to compensate Naftogaz for losses of $5 billion," Naftogaz said. The company, whose assets in Crimea included Chornomornaftogaz which produced significant amounts of gas from the Black Sea, gave no further detail of which overseas Russian assets it could target. Naftogaz has been in talks with investors on a debt restructuring to bring the company out of a months-long default.

SummarySummary Companies European banks, bonds, CDS sell offDeutsche Bank CDS rise to highest since late 2018Confidence hurt, outlook dimsLONDON, March 24 (Reuters) - Confidence in European banks deteriorated further on Friday, with the cost of insuring against a debt default rising sharply as the profit outlook for the sector dimmed. Deutsche Bank's (DBKGn.DE) five-year credit default swaps (CDS) jumped 19 basis points (bps) from Thursday's close to 222 bps, rising to their highest since late 2018, data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed. The prospect that interest rates may be close to peaking, as financial markets are signalling, would also curb banks' profit margins on lending. BOND WATCHEuropean banks' Additional Tier 1 (AT1) debt came under fresh selling pressure, with Deutsche AT1 prices down 6 cents, according to Tradeweb data. The selloff in AT1s highlighted concerns about rising funding costs for European banks and helped explain why the sector was facing renewed pressure on Friday, analysts said.

Separately, in a televised interview on Wednesday, Erdogan downplayed the significance of the meeting with Simsek, saying such meetings were ordinary. A senior government official told Reuters the AKP was somewhat divided with some members opposed to Simsek's return, and described the outcome of the Erdogan meeting as "undesirable". The party may now need to revise its economic platform ahead of the election campaign, he added. The AKP declined to comment on whether it was revising its economic strategy ahead of the vote. Two recent polls by MAK and Turkiye Raporu show the opposition presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu between 4 and 9 percentage points ahead of Erdogan.

☆ Nothing comes for free: What China hopes to gain in return for helping Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping leave after a reception in honor of the Chinese leader's visit to Moscow, at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia March 21, 2023. Unofficially, however, analysts say the presidents are also likely to discuss ways for China to assist Russia without it risking being hit with Western sanctions itself. For many close watchers of Russia and China's deepening relationship over the past decade, the big question then is this: What could China want in return for helping Moscow? China was diversifying its energy sources and turning to Russia, Bachulska noted, as well as looking to its neighbor for raw materials. "But still, in overall bigger-picture terms, China has an upper hand economically and if China supports Russia in a more substantial way this will continue even more," she added.

Commodity trading advisers (CTAs) - funds that try to profit by buying or selling when there is a clear direction in markets - slumped 4.3% in the three days to Monday, according to analysis from UBS. "We have seen certainly on (last) Friday and Monday capitulation trades from hedge funds, so all hedge funds have been short duration positioned and we have heard a lot of desks needed to shut down their risk," said Kaspar Hense, a senior portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management. Hedge funds felt this "brutally" in Japanese markets, Hense said, where positioning from hedge funds and CTAs had been particularly "one sided" in anticipation of an end to the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy. British macro hedge fund manager Crispin Odey's main fund posted a minus 4.7% February performance and is down 3% so far this year, said a note from his hedge fund to clients. Very few macro economic funds tracked by bank research seen by Reuters have reported March numbers.

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