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The risk of a fresh uptick in global food inflation emerged Monday after President Vladimir V. Putin pulled Russia out of the Black Sea grain deal, sending wheat prices surging and exposing vulnerable countries in Africa and the global south in particular to the prospect of a new round of food insecurity. Chicago wheat futures, a barometer for global prices, jumped more than 4 percent as the Kremlin’s move once again jeopardized a key trade route to global markets for grain from Ukraine, one of the world’s major bread baskets. “It will hurt specific countries dependent on these exports,” Mr. Ash said. But beyond that, “it shows how weak Putin is after the Wagner coup: He is now desperate to take any bit of leverage he can.”The Black Sea Grain Initiative was struck a year ago to alleviate a global food crisis after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when Russia blocked ships from carrying the country’s grain out of its ports on the Black Sea. Those blockages swiftly sent grain prices soaring to record highs.
Persons: Vladimir V, Putin, Mr, Timothy Ash, Ash, Wagner, blockages Organizations: Wagner, BlueBay, Management, Initiative Locations: Russia, Africa, Ukraine, London,
"We first need to see Zambia's updated macroeconomic package, which is in part why we have to get restricted," one of the sources said. There will be a restriction period of two weeks, with the option to extend it if both sides agree, two sources added. Amia Capital, Amundi, BlueBay Asset Management, Farallon Capital Management, Greylock Capital and T. Rowe Price comprise the steering committee. Besides net present value (NPV) reductions, talks will focus on how to incorporate the impact of a potential improvement of Zambia's debt carrying capacity, or its ability to handle debt payments. Including in the overhaul a mechanism that would allow for higher payments through coupon payments, debt maturities or a combination of both if Zambia's debt capacity improves was "sacrosanct", one of the sources said.
Persons: Weil, Rowe Price, Jorgelina, Rodrigo Campos, Karin Strohecker Organizations: Paris Club, Newstate Partners, BlueBay Asset Management, Farallon Capital Management, Greylock, Monetary Fund, Bank, IMF, World Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Zambia, U.S, Amia, Rosario, London, New York, Lincoln
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan arrives for a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain June 29, 2022. With much at stake for Turkey, Sweden, and the NATO alliance, whichever direction Turkey moves in will have significant consequences for them all. "Turkey's blockade on Sweden's NATO progression isn't a clear-cut ticket to economic fallout, but it is playing with fire," said Guney Yildiz, a researcher focused on Turkey and Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday. "Either Turkey approves Sweden's NATO membership at Vilnius or it risks a major break in relations with the West and at a time when Turkey's macro is on the edge.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Doce, , Joe Biden, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Washington, Erdogan, Biden, Ryan Bohl, Rane, Guney, Syria Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, Kamal Alam, Christine Olsson, Alam, Guney Yildiz, Yildiz, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: NATO, Reuters NATO, Nordic, Ankara, Turkish, East, CNBC, Russia, Kurdish Workers ' Party, Atlantic Council, Kurdish Democratic Society Center, Afp, Getty, ISIS, EU, Anadolu Agency, BlueBay Asset Management, West Locations: Madrid, Spain, Vilnius, Lithuania, Sweden, Turkey, Hungary, EU, Ankara, Turkish, North Africa, Finland, Ukraine, Russia, Syria, Moscow, Kyiv, Stockholm, Kurdish, Europe, East Syria
The latest drubbing in the world's biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said. But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March's banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked. U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher , . ING said earlier on Friday that this week's data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves. "It won't be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets."
Persons: Mike Riddell, Jan von Gerich, Mark Dowding, Gael Fichan, Fichan, BlueBay's Dowding, Yoruk Bahceli, Samuel Indyk, Harry Robertson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: U.S, Federal, Allianz Global Investors, Fed, of, European Central Bank, BlueBay Asset Management, Syz, ING, Global, Thomson Locations: Europe, United States, Australia, British, Germany, Britain, U.S, of England
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Much more needs to be done' to bring down Turkey's inflation, says Tim AshBlueBay Asset Management's Timothy Ash says more needs to be done to bring down Turkey's inflation even as the country's monthly inflation came in lower than expected.
Persons: Tim Ash, Timothy Ash
Turkey's inflation rate cools despite steep lira plunge
  + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Turkey's monthly inflation rate for June came in lower than expected, despite the continued collapse of the lira currency following the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkey's consumer price index rose 3.92% month-on-month, official data showed Wednesday. On a year-on-year basis, inflation rose 38.21%, also slightly lower than Reuters' forecasts of 39.47%. "The lira freefall starts to take its toll once again as it reignites cost pressures," he said. Ash added that the central bank will need to "work very hard to bring inflation meaningfully down from here."
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bartosz Sawicki, Timothy Ash, Ash Organizations: Reuters, CNBC
Smaller-than-expected Turkey rate hike hits lira, bonds
  + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, June 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Hafize Gaye Erkan delivered a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike at her first rate meeting on Thursday, sending the lira and the country's dollar-denominated sovereign bonds sharply lower. The bank lifted its key rate 650 basis points to 15% compared to the median of 21% expected in a Reuters poll. "On the other hand they are promising more tightening ahead... so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt." "I am more worried about the medium-term outlook which is likely to see further lira depreciation. TIM ASH, EM SENIOR SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT"Ouch - disappointing.
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, PIOTR MATYS, Erkan, Erdogan, PETER KISLER, JON HARRISON, Amruta Khandekar, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Libby George, Karin Strohecker, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Thomson
Residents waiting at a bus stop under a large Turkish flag in Istanbul, Turkey, on Sunday, April 30, 2023. Turkey's central bank jacked up the country's key interest rate Thursday, almost doubling it from 8.5% to 15% as the new economic administration of recently re-elected President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embarked on a dramatic monetary policy U-turn. The bank said that there will be further gradual monetary tightening until the inflation picture in the country improves. The whopping 650-basis-point rate rise is the country's first since March 2021, but was below analyst expectations of a 1,150-basis-point hike to 20%. Not enough," Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in an note via email.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Timothy Ash, Organizations: Turkish, BlueBay Asset Management Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey's
LONDON, June 15 (Reuters) - Hawkish central banks have sent a resounding "no" to markets betting recession would force rate cuts soon, leaving money managers scrambling for direction as the second half of the year approaches. "Markets have been wrong not only in their interpretation of the data but of the central bank reaction," he added. "Even though inflation is coming down, you are still getting that phase were the central banks think they need to talk hawkishly about this." Canada last week restarted rate hikes, Australia has come off a pause and Norway may have to accelerate hikes next week. BofA now expects two 25 bps interest rate hikes from the Fed this year, JPMorgan sees only one more and Morgan Stanley sees none.
Persons: Jason Simpson, Shorter, BofA, Morgan Stanley, Mark Nash, Nash, Kaspar Hense, Michael Michaelides, Shamik, BoE, they're, Dhar, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Conor Humphries Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, State, Bank of Japan, Treasury, JPMorgan, BlueBay Asset Management, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada, Australia, Norway, Shamik Dhar
Still-hawkish Fed pauses rate tightening after 10 straight hikes
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +13 min
While the market expected a hawkish pause, this is even a little bit more hawkish than market participants anticipated and that’s why you’re having a negative reaction in risk assets. So, it does suggest that the Fed is looking to tighten policy further, but the big question is can the Fed credibly commit to two more rate hikes if they just decided to actually hold rates steady. And what is the threshold for further rate hikes? “GEORGE YOUNG, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, VILLERE & CO, NEW ORLEANS"This a pregnant pause, meaning that they said they're going to pause hikes today but they're going to increase later. ANGELO KOURKAFAS, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES, ST LOUIS"We're seeing a more hawkish pause.
Persons: QUINCY KROSBY, Powell, He’s, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, ” ANDRZEJ SKIBA, ” GENNADIY GOLDBERG, they’ve, ” ELLEN HAZEN, Logan, Waller, “ GEORGE, ANGELO KOURKAFAS, EDWARD JONES, They've, MICHAEL BROWN, hawkishly, WHITNEY WATSON, GOLDMAN, , STOVALL, ” PAUL NOLTE, MICHAEL JAMES Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, RBC, CPI, PPI, Powell &, Cleveland Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHARLOTTE, NC, WISCONSIN, WELLESLEY , MASSACHUSETTS, ORLEANS, GOLDMAN SACHS, Manheim, ALLENTOWN, CHICAGO
Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded interest rate cuts under Erdogan’s unorthodox policies. Bankers say the lira’s continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported Monday. Erkan would be the country’s fifth central bank chief in four years, after Erdogan fired previous governors as part of frequent policy shifts.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, , Tim Ash, , Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM Locations: Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey
Markets are also waiting for the appointment of a new central bank governor to replace Sahap Kavcioglu, who spearheaded rate cuts under Erdogan's unorthodox policies. "I think we are seeing the impact of Simsek pushing (the Turkish central bank) for rational policy." Bankers say the lira's continued gradual depreciation will lead to improved market conditions and halt a decline in central bank reserves. But it sparked a record lira crisis in December of 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year high above 85% last year. Erdogan is considering appointing Hafize Gaye Erkan, a senior finance executive in the United States, as central bank governor, Reuters reported on Monday.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Tim Ash, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Paul McNamara, Huseyin Hayatsever, Jonathan Spicer, Ali Kucukgocmen, Tom Hogue, Christina Fincher Organizations: BlueBay Asset Management, Bankers, Reuters, Simsek, GAM, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkish, United States, Ankara, Turkey, Jorgelina, Rosario, London
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has named former economy chief Mehmet Simsek as his new treasury and finance minister. In the unveiling of his new cabinet, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan named former economy chief Mehmet Simsek as his new treasury and economy minister, leading to some optimism that the country will now forge a new economic path. Simsek was known for his market friendly policies, and subsequently went on to become the country's deputy prime minister from 2015 to 2018 after his stint as Turkey's finance minister. Simsek creating a new team in the key economy portfolio would imply that he will have "pretty strong control over broader economic policy," BlueBay Asset Management's Senior EM Sovereign Strategist Timothy Ash said via e-mail. "The Turkish economy has a chance of pulling back from the brink," he continued.
Persons: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erdogan, Timothy Ash
Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.
Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS
Simsek was highly regarded by financial markets when he served as finance minister and deputy prime minister between 2009 and 2018. After chairing a final meeting of his old cabinet on Wednesday, Erdogan will announce new ministerial roles by Saturday, officials said. The new cabinet is almost certain to include his spokesman Ibrahim Kalin and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan, they added. One of the sources, a senior official with knowledge of the subject, said Erdogan and Simsek had spoken for 2-1/2 hours. The same official said former minister Cevdet Yilmaz could take up the role of Treasury and Finance Minister if Simsek were to become a vice president.
Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Ibrahim Kalin, Hakan Fidan, Nureddin Nebati, Guillaume Tresca, Cevdet Yilmaz, Lutfi Elvan, Sahap Kavcioglu, Timothy Ash, Ash, Amruta Khandekar, Daren Butler, Jonathan Spicer, Toby Chopra, Catherine Evans Organizations: Intelligence, Lira, FX, Reuters, Treasury, Finance, Emerging, Generali Investments, AK, Simsek, BlueBay Asset Management, Thomson Locations: ANKARA
People walking next to a Turkish national flag at the historical grand bazaar in Istanbul. The Turkish lira slumped to yet another all-time low Tuesday, extending its slide after the re-election of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The currency was last trading at 20.15 against the greenback at around 5 a.m. Tuesday morning local time, surpassing Monday's lows. Turkey's Election Board on Sunday confirmed that Erdogan won Turkey's 2023 presidential election with 52.14% of the votes, while his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 47.86%. He subsequently went on to become the country's deputy prime minister from 2015 to 2018.
Turkish lira teeters near record low as Erdogan secures victory
  + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] A U.S. one dollar banknote is seen next to Turkish lira banknotes in this illustration taken in Istanbul, Turkey November 23, 2021. REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira wobbled near record lows against the dollar as President Tayyip Erdogan secured victory in the country's presidential election on Sunday, extending his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade. The currency was at 20.05 to the dollar during Asian hours, just shy of the 20.06 record low hit on Friday. "Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy." "Erdogan is unlikely to embrace an outright economic orthodox approach," Wolfango Piccoli, co-president at advisory firm Teneo said in emailed comments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the leaders that congratulated Erdogan on his win on Monday, calling him a "dear friend," according to the Kremlin. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia August 5, 2022. Putin, in his congratulatory message Monday, praised Erdogan's efforts to "conduct an independent foreign policy," according to his spokespeople. The outlook is mixed among political and economic analysts inside and outside of Turkey whether Erdogan is bad news for the future of NATO. "Putin clearly wants NATO to fragment, and Erdogan in charge increases the likelihood of NATO fragmenting," Harris said after the election's first round in mid-May.
The Turkish lira sank Monday as incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured his victory in the 2023 presidential election, extending his rule into a third decade in power. "We have a pretty pessimistic outlook on the Turkish Lira as a result of Erdogan retaining office after the election," Wells Fargo's Emerging Markets Economist and FX Strategist Brendan McKenna told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." He expects Turkey's unorthodox monetary and economic policy frameworks to remain in place going forward. Turkey's monetary policy places an emphasis on the pursuit of growth and export competition rather than taming inflation, and Erdogan endorses the unconventional view that raising interest rates increases inflation. "With limited FX reserves and massively negative real interest rates the pressure on the lira is heavy," Ash continued.
Morgan Stanley co-presidents Ted Pick and Andy Saperstein, and head of investment management Dan Simkowitz, are widely seen as contenders for the top job. Morgan Stanley shares were little changed in early trading, down 0.9%. The less volatile business of wealth management accounted for 45% of firm's revenue in the first quarter. Morgan Stanley's first-quarter profit beat expectations as rising revenue from wealth management offset declines in investment banking and trading. Simkowitz, the eldest of the three at 58, is head of investment management at Morgan Stanley and co-head of the firm's strategy and execution.
Can Gulf money save Turkey's economy?
  + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Idil Karsit | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Turkey has become a top destination for wealthy Gulf tourists injecting much-needed dollars into the country's economy. Between 2016 and 2019, Qatar increased its investments in Turkey by nearly 500%, replacing countries like Germany and Russia as its second largest foreign direct investor. Gulf states offered relief, either in the form of currency swap lines or direct deposits. It borrows money from the so-called friendly countries to finance its short-term capital needs. Watch the video above to understand why Turkey needs Gulf money.
April 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is preparing to place First Republic Bank (FRC.N) under receivership imminently, a person familiar with the matter said on Friday, sending shares of the lender down nearly 50% in extended trading. The FDIC asked banks including JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and PNC Financial Services Group (PNC.N) to submit final bids for First Republic Bank by Sunday, Bloomberg News reported on Saturday. If the San Francisco-based lender falls into receivership, it would be the third U.S. bank to collapse since March. Shares of some other regional banks also fell, with PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) down 2% after the bell while Western Alliance (WAL.N) was down 0.7%. "The rest of the regional bank system feels like it's in a different place than where FRC is," he said.
NEW YORK (Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is preparing to place First Republic Bank under receivership imminently, a person familiar with the matter said on Friday, sending shares of the lender down nearly 50% in extended trading. A person stands in front of a First Republic Bank branch in San Francisco, California, U.S. April 28, 2023. First Republic said earlier this week its deposits had slumped by more than $100 billion in the first quarter. First Republic and FDIC representatives did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Shares of some other regional banks also fell with PacWest Bancorp down 2% after the bell while Western Alliance was down 0.7%.
Many commentators linked the lessons learned from the earlier crisis to the ongoing concerns about First Republic Bank. INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL BANKERS CEO BETH ZORC"The IIB commends the Federal Reserve's timeliness of producing its report on SVB. "There are similarities between SVB's situation and what is happening with First Republic Bank: both are affected by the rapid movement of very large sums of money." A potential First Republic Bank failure could similarly present a risk to the long-term investment strategy of high net-worth individuals." "It feels isolated, than the rest of the regional bank system, feels like it's in a different place than where FRC is."
Index inclusion "is something we are discussing with market participants at the moment, while we are also doing our internal analysis," the official said, looking at how the EU fulfills index providers' criteria. EU bonds are included in broad bond indexes but inclusion in dedicated government bond indexes compiled by the likes of Bloomberg, JPMorgan or FTSE Russell would be a game changer, as trillions of dollars of investor funds tracking the indexes would effectively become forced buyers. Big investors are also calling for index providers to treat the EU as a government. The EU official noted the bloc has elements of a sovereign, such as a budget and at least indirect taxing powers through member states' contributions. Cosimo Marasciulo, head of fixed income absolute return at Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said it was also calling for EU inclusion in government bond indexes.
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