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☆ Opinion | The Economist Who Predicted What Could Well Be the Next Recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The economist and market strategist David Rosenberg took a lot of heat for predicting that the Federal Reserve’s big increase in interest rates would tip the U.S. economy into recession. “I spent most of the past year being absolutely beaten up,” he told me last week. “I had email from clients that you would not believe, and many cancellations.”The latest economic data, including a sharp slowdown in job growth in July, is indicating that Rosenberg may well have been right all along. I asked him if he feels vindicated. Stocks also slumped in Europe and were off to a bad start in the United States on Monday as I was finishing this newsletter.

Persons: David Rosenberg, ”, “, Rosenberg, Stocks Organizations: Federal, Nikkei Locations: U.S, Europe, United States

Hong Kong/London CNN —Japanese stocks on Monday suffered their biggest daily loss since 1987 as fears about a US economic slowdown sent shock waves through global markets. The Nikkei 225 index of leading stocks in Tokyo lost a staggering 4,451 points, its biggest point drop in history. On the more common, percentage measure, the index closed more than 12% down — according to Reuters, its largest one-day fall since October 1987. He was referring to “Black Monday” in October 1987, when global markets plunged and the Nikkei lost 3,836 points. The Nikkei closed down 5.8% Friday, as traders fretted about the impact of a stronger yen on Japanese companies.

Persons: ” Neil Newman, ”, Stephen Innes, Newman, Mohit Kumar, Taiwan’s Taiex, Kospi, Innes, Tom Kloza, Bitcoin Organizations: London CNN, Reuters, Advisory, CNN, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Management, Trading, Nasdaq, Dow, Jefferies, Traders, greenback, PMI, Intel, Brent, Oil Price Information Service Locations: Hong Kong, London, Tokyo, Japan, South Korea, “, Asia, Europe, South, Shanghai, China, United States

☆ 8 of the biggest stock market crashes in history — and how they changed our financial lives
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Rebecca Reisner | Richard Richtmyer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

While the triggers for stock market crashes vary, the ultimate outcome is always the same: the market recovers. Here's a summary of eight of the most notable stock market crashes in history, their causes, and their fallout. Stock market crash FAQWhat happens when a stock market crashes? Numerous things can cause a stock market to crash, including:PanicNatural or man-made disastersEconomic crisesSpeculationCan a stock market crash be prevented? Unlike a bear market, stock market corrections are often short and usually work themselves out.

Persons: It's, Terry Marsh, Here's, Stocks, Carola Frydman, J.P, Morgan, —, Blair Hull, Alan Greenspan, Marc Chandler, Marsh, weren't, Tyler Muir, Thai bhat, Paula Bronstein, Stringer, Chandler, chipmaker, WebVan.com, Muir, The, Lehman Brothers, NICHOLAS ROBERTS, homebuyers, Bear, Lehman, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Dodd, Frank Wall, Europe —, Italy — Organizations: Federal Reserve System, SEC, FDIC, Haas School of Business, University of California, Federal Reserve, United Copper Company, UCC, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Federal, System, Dow Jones, Gross, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Securities and Exchange Commission, Dow, Nasdaq, Chicago, Black, Bannockburn Global Forex, UCLA Anderson School of Management, Getty, Asia, International Monetary Fund, chipmaker Qualcomm, The Sarbanes, Oxley, Investors, Financial, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Nikkei, US, Asset, Frank Wall Street Reform, Consumer, Consumer Financial, Dow Jones Industrial, Center, Budget, Stock, Corrections Locations: University of California Berkeley, AFP, Iran, Bannockburn, Japan, Thai, Asia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, COVID, China, Europe, Italy, Chevron

☆ Global stocks are up 12% so far in 2024. Here's what to expect next, according to history
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Global stocks ended the first half of 2024 up by more than 12%, and investors stand to make good money over the next six months if history repeats itself. Since the late 1980s, though, after a first-half rise of over 12%, stocks rose every single time in the second half of the year. The analysis also reveals that since 1970, the global stock market index had an average 21.25% price return for the whole year when the index was up more than 12% halfway through the year. The U.S.-only S & P 500 index has behaved in a very similar way to the MSCI World Index since 1989. The stock market had risen by more than 25% in the first half of that year.

Persons: — Organizations: CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ I read the acclaimed book that's helped tons of people achieve financial independence. Here are the 2 main takeaways, who it's for, and who should avoid it.
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-02 | by ( Kathleen Elkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewWhen you cover one topic for many years — such as money, in my case — you start to notice patterns. You start to hear the same advice (invest early), strategies (use index funds), and even book recommendations. His portfolio consists of two index mutual funds (VTSAX and VBTLX) and a money market or bank account to keep cash. AdvertisementFor younger investors in what he calls the "wealth accumulation" phase, the strategy is even simpler: Buy stocks via Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund. Collins is a fan of the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund.

Persons: —, JL Collins, Collins, Jack Bogle's, He's, he's, Kathleen Elkins, I'm, you'll Organizations: Service, Business, Vanguard, Vanguard's, Market Index Fund, Market Index

Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon The Dow, all-timeThe average was created by Charles Dow in 1896 with just 12 industrial stocks. Paired with the Dow Jones Transportation Average , the two were collectively meant to offer a gauge for the broader economy. The sole caveat: No utility or transportation stocks are included, given the existence of the Dow Jones Utility Average and Transportation Average. 1972: Dow hits 1,000It may be hard to imagine given the recent achievement, but the Dow traded below 1,000 until the early 1970s. The Dow saw its worst year since 2008 in 2022, though 2023's rebound allowed the index to erase those losses.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Charles Dow, There's, Richard Nixon, Alcoa Esmark, Du Pont, Dow didn't, Walt Disney, Eastman Kodak Merck Alcoa ExxonMobil Phillip Morris, T General Motors Sears, Morgan, Phillip Morris, Walmart Du Pont J.P, Morgan Chase Walt, Donald Trump, General Electric Nike American Express Goldman Sachs, Morgan Chase, Johnson, Joe Biden, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Gamble Amgen, — Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Transportation, P Global, Dow, CNBC, General Foods, Harvester, Chevron, Procter, Gamble, Alcoa, Manville, ExxonMobil, Illinois Glass American Tobacco General Electric Procter, General Foods Sears Roebuck AT, T General Motors Texaco Bethlehem Steel, T General Motors Texaco Bethlehem Steel Goodyear Union Carbide Chevron Honeywell United Technologies Chrysler International Harvester US, Nickel Westinghouse Electric Eastman Kodak International, Woolworth, Oasis, Eastman Kodak Merck Alcoa ExxonMobil, Express General Electric Procter, Gamble AT, T General Motors, T General Motors Sears Roebuck Bethlehem Steel Goodyear Texaco Boeing Honeywell Union Carbide Caterpillar IBM United Technologies Chevron International, Walt Disney, Morgan Chase Westinghouse, Apple, Microsoft, Sears and Union Carbide, Eastman Kodak Johnson, Johnson Alcoa ExxonMobil, American Express General Electric Merck AT, T, Goodyear Procter & Gamble Caterpillar Hewlett, Packard Sears, Chevron Honeywell Union Carbide Citigroup IBM United Technologies, Walmart, Morgan Chase Walt Disney, Visa, Travelers, Nike, General Electric Nike American Express, General Electric Nike American Express Goldman Sachs Pfizer Apple Home Depot Procter, Gamble Boeing IBM Travelers Caterpillar Intel United Technologies Chevron, Morgan Chase UnitedHealth, Cisco Systems Johnson, Johnson Verizon, Cola McDonald’s, Du Pont Merck Walmart ExxonMobil Microsoft Corporation Walt Disney, Exxon Mobil, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Goldman Sachs Nike American Express Home Depot Procter, Gamble Amgen Honeywell, Apple Intel Travelers Cos Boeing IBM, Caterpillar Johnson, Johnson Verizon Chevron, Cisco Systems, Walgreens, Alliance Coca Cola Merck Walmart Dow Microsoft Walt Disney Locations: New York City, T General Motors Texaco Bethlehem Steel Goodyear, America

The idea of investing has always terrified me, because I worry that I don't know what I'm doing. The idea of investing my money used to absolutely terrify me. We all have our own reasons, but I know I'm not the only person who's approached the stock market with trembling hands. The average stock market return is about 10% every year. After maxing out my Roth IRA, I started putting money into a brokerage account, specifically investing in index funds.

Persons: —, wasn't, I've, I'd, who's, She's, she's, Get, it's, Roth Organizations: Service, SEC, IRA, Roth IRA

☆ Decades of Black Friday Deals: A History of America’s Favorite Shopping Day
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Joseph Pisani | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Other days with black in their name have a bad connotation; think Black Monday for stock-market crashes. Retailers tried to change the name Black Friday to Big Friday. It didn’t stick. They kept Black Friday, using it to promote deals and doorbusters. Jennava Laska Archive/Getty Images

☆ Another Black Monday May Be Around the Corner
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( John Greenwood | Steve H. Hanke | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Journal Editorial Report: The week's best and worst from Dan Henninger, Mary O’Grady and Kim Strassel. Images: Reuters/AFP/Getty Images/Bloomberg News Composite: Mark KellyThe Federal Reserve’s policies are threatening U.S. financial markets and the economy. They are in danger of a steep recession and the risk of a repeat of 1987’s Black Monday. Early in the pandemic, the volume of U.S. dollars in circulation soared. That is more than three times the appropriate rate for hitting the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

Persons: Dan Henninger, Mary O’Grady, Kim Strassel, Mark Kelly Organizations: AFP, Getty, Bloomberg

☆ Your investments may be haunted
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks often struggle when government bond yields are elevated, since it means investors can get high returns on less risky assets. But here’s the kicker: As the price of bonds go up when lots of people buy them, yields go down. When official interest rates rise so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds, known as yields. This creates an incentive for investors to sell the bonds they currently hold and buy newly issued ones that offer higher interest payments. Back to the programWhen official interest rates rise, which is what’s happened over the past year and a half, so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Nicole Goodkind, You’ve, Dow, What’s, Stocks Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve Locations: New York

☆ Why Wall Street investors are freaking out
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Here’s why investors are freaking out:Rates and the Fed: A surge in corporate debt sales and rising bond yields have sent stocks lower. Moody’s, the only major credit rating firm to keep a perfect score for the United States, has warned that a government shutdown would be “credit negative” for the United States. Geopolitical risks are still elevated as Russia’s war on Ukraine continues and relations between the United States and China remain tense. October also marks the end of the fiscal year for many mutual funds in the United States. Statistical evidence doesn’t quite support the phenomenon, but the level of superstitious caution on Wall Street is real.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, ”, Michael Reinking, Mark Twain, ” Sam Bankman, Sam Bankman, Allison Morrow, Judge Lewis Kaplan, “, ” Kaplan, SFB, SBF, Caroline Ellison, Bernie Madoff, Chris Isidore, Vanessa Yurkevich Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, Federal Reserve, Fed, Markets, Republicans, “, Prosecutors, GM, Ford, Motors, United Auto Workers, Michigan Assembly, Jeep, Dodge, Chrysler, UAW Locations: New York, America’s Congress, United States, Ukraine, China, Manhattan, Fairfax, Kansas City , Kansas, Toledo, Lockport, Michigan, Wayne , Michigan, Kokomo , Indiana

☆ The stock market today has 'echoes' of the 1987 crash, and even a hint of a recession would be a massive blow to equities, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are following the same path they did ahead of the 1987 stock crash, Societe Generale said. Investors are bullish in the face of rising bond yields, in an "echo" of late 80s sell-off. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is sending worrying signals, and any sign of recession now could spark a big sell-off, according to Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards. But the outperformance in the face of soaring bond yields could be a warning of pain to come, if history is any guide. Meanwhile, only 32% of individual investors think the chance of a 1987-style stock market crash over the next six months is less than 10% according to Yale's US Crash Confidence Index.

Persons: Albert Edwards, —, Edwards, Dow, bullishness, Raymond James Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Generale, Federal Reserve, Treasury, York Fed

☆ Jim Cramer’s guide to investing: Examining 1987’s historic crash
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer said he thinks investors not only need to know what to do in case of a market crash or enormous sell-off, but why the crisis might be occurring. Over the course of Cramer's decades-long career, he said he's seen only two "truly horrifying" sell-offs: the crash of 1987 and the rolling crash of 2007 to 2009 during the financial crisis. To Cramer, the crash during the Covid-19 pandemic doesn't compare to either of these because the market rebounded immediately. But Cramer noted a difference between the two, saying the crash in 1987 wasn't caused by an overarching failure of the economy. But during the financial crisis, the market took years to recover, not bottoming until 2009 after the Dow initially plunged in 2007.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, he's, Cramer, wasn't, Dow, Alan Greenspan Organizations: Federal

☆ Jim Cramer’s guide to investing: Unpacking the Great Recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

To determine whether there's a systemic decline or a flash crash that could be a buying opportunity, Cramer said investors should ask themselves questions about the state of the economy. Before the crisis began in 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its peak pre-recession high of over 14,000 points. Before the crash, Cramer said many who were following the mortgage market knew there were a lot of "unsound practices" occurring. He explained that after calling numerous friends at different firms and mortgage bankers, he knew something was seriously wrong. "The financial crisis gave us a once-in-a-lifetime bear market with true systemic risk, but that's the exception, not the rule," Cramer said.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer Organizations: Dow Jones

☆ Sam Asghari seeks divorce from Britney Spears 14 months after wedding
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Britney Spears and Sam Asghari pose at the premiere of "Once Upon a Time In Hollywood" in Los Angeles, California, U.S., July 22, 2019. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLOS ANGELES, Aug 17 (Reuters) - Sam Asghari, the husband of pop superstar Britney Spears, is seeking to divorce the singer he married last year after she was released from a legal conservatorship. The 29-year-old Asghari cited "irreconcilable differences" in a filing in Los Angeles Superior Court on Wednesday. In a statement on Instagram, Asghari said he and Spears "have decided to end our journey together." Asghari and Spears, 41, wed 14 months ago in June 2022 after dating for nearly six years.

Persons: Britney Spears, Sam Asghari, Mario Anzuoni, Spears, Asghari, Jamie Spears, Jason Alexander, Kevin Federline, Lisa Richwine, Diane Craft, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Los Angeles Superior Court, Asghari, Thomson Locations: Los Angeles , California, U.S, Los Angeles, Las Vegas

☆ The Dow's latest winning streak is bad news for stocks - and a recession might be underway, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-29 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow's recent winning streak is a worrying sign, David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg says a recession may be underway, and plunging inflation can be bad news for stocks. For the first time since January 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed in the green for 13 straight sessions before snapping its winning streak on Thursday. Stocks were up 28% at this point in 1987, Rosenberg noted. Rosenberg cautioned investors who expect stocks to soar because inflation has now slowed.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Stocks, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Dow, Rosenberg Research, Federal, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, North American

July 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Nasdaq fell only 0.1% and 'big tech' fell less than 1% but that masked huge moves in some shares which added or wiped out tens of billions of dollars of market cap. Back in Asia, a sense of realism returned over the expected measures from Beijing to revitalize the economy. After outsized gains on Tuesday - a 14% surge in property stocks - major indices in China and Hong Kong closed in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal, Fed, ECB, Bank of, U.S, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Meta, Facebook, Investors, Central Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, U.S, Beijing, China, Hong Kong, Australia

☆ The Dow's longest win streak since 2017 is another sign that suggests there is no recession in sight
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is in its longest win streak since February 2017. Carson Group's Ryan Detrick observed that win streaks from the Dow suggest there is no recession in sight. Blue chips were higher three months later 100% of the time, delivering an average gain of 5%. They were also up six months later 100% of the time, delivering an average gain of 11%. And 12 months later, they were up 80% of the time, delivering an average gain of just over 8%.

Persons: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick, Dow, Ryan Detrick, Dow Jones, Detrick Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Service, Microsoft, Carson Group Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Japan’s economic scars might blind it to inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Investors worry about market ructions if Ueda hikes rates now but there is another risk: that he waits too long. Reuters GraphicsUeda’s inaction – and the domestic markets’ positive response – have bought him time to focus on evaluating macroeconomic fundamentals, particularly inflation. The country only emerged from a decades-long deflationary rut relatively recently, so local economists, executives and consumers are unused to worrying about consumer prices rising too fast. The government’s latest draft of its long-term economic plan, seen by Reuters on June 2, remains focused on eradicating Japan's “long-held deflationary mindset”. "We expect inflation to quite clearly slow below 2%" toward the middle of the current fiscal year, Ueda told parliament.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, ’, –, Richard Koo, Shinzo Abe, Francesco Guerrera, Katrina Hamlin Organizations: Reuters, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Bank for International, Toyota, Toshiba, Black Monday, Japan Inc, International Monetary Fund, of, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, United States, U.S, Great, China, Europe, Germany, Italy, of Japan’s

☆ Schwab says it raked in $53 billion in client assets in March as it looks to soothe investors rattled by banking turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Charles Schwab said Friday it logged the second-highest March inflow from new client assets, at more than $53 billion. Schwab's stock last month plunged as clients worried about unrealized losses in its bond portfolio. The stock was hit alongside regional banks on investor concerns about huge unrealized losses in their bond portfolios. Schwab has banking as well as well as brokerage operations. Charles Schwab at the end of 2022 had $27.9 billion in unrealized losses across its held-to-maturity and available-for-sale bond portfolios, according to its annual 10-K filing.

ORLANDO, Florida, April 5 (Reuters) - When U.S. government bonds become the epicenter of global market volatility, investors' room for taking on additional risk shrinks, sucking the oxygen out of their risk budget. The shock blindsided speculative investors who had been positioned for higher U.S. interest rates and yields. The full extent of the turmoil - hedge funds were among those who got crushed - will become clearer as first-quarter readouts emerge. A pension fund's tolerance for risk, and therefore its VaR, will be lower than a hedge fund's. "When you plug a two-year Treasury into any risk model now using past returns models, expected risk will be higher going forward," van Vliet said.

ORLANDO, Florida, March 22 (Reuters) - First the record wager on higher U.S. interest rates, now the record wipe out. Their record net short position in three-month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures of 1.17 million contracts was slashed to 329,638 contracts in the week through March 14. chartchartExpectations of a 6% fed funds rate have long faded. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall. The latest CFTC figures also revealed how the recent surge in volatility has put speculative accounts trading three-month SOFR futures out of the market.

☆ Jonathan Hirtle launched his $18 billion firm in the wake of the 1987 market crash. He told us what he's holding for the long haul, and what's different about the current bank crisis.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Hirtle also discussed how he's investing clients' money and his long-term market views. Hirtle told Insider that the bank failures of 2023 are very different from what he saw in 1987, or in 2008. So Hirtle says he is concentrating on the long term, and that he prefers the US to other regions. Still, he says that global diversification, and diversification across stocks, bonds, and private equity is important for the long term. In the 2010s bull market, stocks rose about 400% in a little under 11 years.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that speculators held the largest ever net short position in three-month SOFR rate futures in the week ending March 7, only a few weeks after amassing a record short position in two-year Treasuries futures. Implied rates then plunged as much as 200 basis points in a week as traders drastically redrew their Fed outlook. Analysts at Deutsche Bank say the huge disconnect between bond and rates volatility over equity volatility recently is partly down to the extreme positioning in fixed income. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In bonds and interest rates, yields and implied rates fall when prices rise, and move up when prices fall.

The $3.2 billion deal comes after a sudden burst of turmoil in the global banking sector - two U.S. bank failures then Credit Suisse's implosion - sparked unprecedented volatility in the U.S. interest rate and bond markets. chartChina's central bank announces its latest interest rate decision on Monday morning. Given the global banking and market turmoil swirling right now, a rate cut would not be a total shock. But no equity market will be able to ignore the seismic shifts in U.S. rates and bonds for long. China's President Xi Jinping is in Moscow, his first international trip since securing a third term as president, visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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