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The S&P 500 (.SPX) has gained more than 16% on a year-to-date basis, though it was last trading largely flat on Thursday. The latest CPI report "is good news. However, another CPI report is due to be released before that meeting. The CPI report is "obviously positive for the markets," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth advisor and market strategist for Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management. The month of August has delivered on average the third-lowest return for the S&P 500 since 1945, with September ranking as the lowest, according to CFRA Research.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, LeBas, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Refinitiv, Barry Bannister, Bannister, Lewis Krauskopf, Karen Brettell, Ira Iosebashvili, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, CPI, Cresset, Sylvest Wealth Management, Research, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
The "no recession relief rally" has ended for the stock market, according to Stifel's Barry Bannister. The S&P 500 is up about 17% year-to-date, but has declined by about 3% since the start of August. Bannister expects the S&P 500 to finish the year at 4,400, suggesting potential downside of about 2% from current levels. According to data from Bank of America, stock market returns are typically muted between July and December in the third year of the Presidential Cycle, which reference a four-year stock market cycle that tracks with the four-year term of the US President. That's well below consensus estimates of the S&P 500 generating $226 in earnings per share next year.
Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, Bannister, Barry Bannister, committement, wouldn't, Stephen Suttmeier Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon
The New York Stock Exchange building is seen from Broad Street in Lower Manhattan in New York, January 20, 2016. The S&P 500 has rebounded 16.4% so far this year after plunging in 2022, as the economy has so far defied fears of a downturn. Bannister projected the S&P 500 would "trade sideways" in the second half of 2023 and end the year at around 4,400. While inflation has been moderating, Bannister said he expected the consumer price index to end 2023 at around 3.5%, versus a 2.3% average in the 30 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The inflation rates would result in "keeping Fed tight and S&P 500 flat" in the second half, Bannister said.
Persons: Mike Segar, Barry Bannister, Bannister, Lewis Krauskopf, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Lower Manhattan, New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market's Q3 will be led by 'cyclical value' stocks, says Stifel's BannisterBarry Bannister, Stifel chief equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss which areas of the market will do well this quarter, why Stifel doesn't have more aggressive price targets, and why 'buy and hold' will be dead for the next decade.
Persons: Stifel's Bannister Barry Bannister
A common phrase you'll hear from folks at Smead Capital Management is "fear stock market failure." He manages the Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), which has beaten 99% of similar funds over the last five-year period, and 97% over the last 10- and 15-year periods, according to Morningstar data. Value stocks to buyWithin value stocks, Smead is most bullish on the energy sector, as he believes we're in the earlier stages of a "commodities super cycle." Another area of the market Smead is bullish on right now is shopping mall real-estate investment trusts, or REITs. "Collecting a 6% dividend from them and having upside potential in a stock market that might struggle looks like a winning hand."
Persons: Bill Smead, Smead, he's, Smith Barney, Wells, Ben, we're, Stifel's Barry Bannister, millenials, it's Organizations: APA, DVN, MAC, Smead Capital Management, Morningstar, Smead Capital, Smead, Management, Occidental Petroleum, ConocoPhillips, Property Group, Simon Property Group Locations: OXY, Devon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI don't think we end the year 'any better than we are right now', says Stifel's Barry BannisterBarry Bannister, Stifel chief equity strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, where the market is headed for the rest of the year, and more.
Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister Barry Bannister
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's got some balance sheet issues, says Stifel’s Barry BannisterBarry Bannister, Stifel chief equity strategist, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss why he thinks that cyclical value will join the growth rally, what he thinks about the Chinese market, and more.
Persons: China's, Stifel’s Barry Bannister Barry Bannister, Squawk
Watch CNBC’s full interview with Stifel’s Barry Bannister
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Stifel’s Barry BannisterBarry Bannister, Stifel chief equity strategist, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss why he thinks that cyclical value will join the growth rally, what he thinks about the Chinese market, and more.
Persons: Stifel’s Barry Bannister Barry Bannister, Squawk
Stifel just got more bullish on where stocks will land at the halfway point of 2023, and encouraged investors buy cyclical stocks. However, the strategist expects investors will not have to worry about a downturn until later down the road. Given this, Bannister said he's been bullish on cyclical growth and value stocks since October. Meanwhile, he expects cyclical value stocks in basic materials, capital goods, banks, transportation and others that took a hit during the regional banking crisis are "oversold" if the economy continues to hold up. He said defensive value stocks are "last year's story," while defensive growth stocks will benefit when the U.S. reaches a recession.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Stifel's Barry Bannister on raising S&P mid-year targetBarry Bannister, Stifel chief equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if now is the time to worry about equities, the timeline of Bannister's price target for the S&P and how Bannister justifies the price target's valuation.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBull markets don't end with this much bear market sentiment, says Stifel's BannisterBarry Bannister, Stifel chief equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if now is the time to worry about equities, the timeline of Bannister's price target for the S&P and how Bannister justifies the price target's valuation.
According to Stifel's Barry Bannister, the market is on a road to nowhere for almost the next decade. "Easy money is behind us, the hard money is now," the firm's chief equity strategist told CNBC's "Fast Money" this week. The price earnings multiple comes down." But it's a strategy "Fast Money" trader Dan Nathan questions during a sluggish market. "I do not think you want to be overweight small caps right here," said RiskReversal Advisors principal Dan Nathan.
Watch CNBC's full interview with Dan Suzuki and Barry Bannister
  + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Dan Suzuki and Barry BannisterDan Suzuki, deputy CIO at Richard Bernstein Advisors, and Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss their thoughts on a recession, the dollar index inching higher, and more.
A "super-bear" could send the stock market to new lows later this year if inflation soars again, according to Stifel. "Major S&P 500 'super-bear' downside in 2023 likely pivots on whether commodity prices again soar," Stifel said. Those three stages include disbelief, "which may be the 2022 decline we have seen for commodity prices," Bannister said. The only problem for stock market investors is such a cycle in commodities could take years to play out. That's why investors should closely monitor commodity prices, inflation, and the Fed's response to gauge whether a "super-bear" market is poised to jolt stock prices.
He sees the price to earnings ratio of the S & P 500 cut in half over the decade as earnings per share double, leaving the index little changed overall. Stifel forecasts that in 2031, the S & P 500 will be about flat with its Dec. 30, 2021 peak level. Stifel's forecast is that the S & P 500 will reach 4,300 in the first half of 2023, but the investment bank sees the index falling if crude oil rises sharply. One other data point supports modest to no returns in the S & P 500 over the next decade. The S & P 500 relative to commodities fell below its 122-year trend, which usually signals flat returns in the next ten years.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Vance Howard and Barry BannisterVance Howard, CEO & portfolio manager at Howard Capital Management, and Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, join CNBC's ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss how they see the market as we move to the new year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI am sitting on almost $2.4 billion in cash right now, waiting for this market to turn, says Vance HowardVance Howard, CEO & portfolio manager at Howard Capital Management, and Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, join CNBC's ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss how they see the market as we move to the new year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe treasury market is screaming recession is coming, says Rockefeller's ChangBarry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, and Jimmy Chang, Rockefeller Global Family Office CIO, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the bear market rally, the difference in the narrative between treasuries and equities, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Stifel's Barry Bannister and Rockefeller's ChangBarry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, and Jimmy Chang, Rockefeller Global Family Office CIO, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the bear market rally, the difference in the narrative between treasuries and equities, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Wells Fargo's Tracie McMillion and Stifel's Barry BannisterTracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, and Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if McMillion is excited about equities right now, Bannister's thoughts on Tuesday's midterm elections and if equities will take their cue from the bond market.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou're looking at a choppy market for at least 12 months, says Stifel's Barry BannisterTracie McMillion, head of global asset allocation strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, and Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if McMillion is excited about equities right now, Bannister's thoughts on Tuesday's midterm elections and if equities will take their cue from the bond market.
Index funds tend to be cheaper. Obviously, index provider S&P Global (SPGI) has a vested interest in promoting passive funds backed to various benchmark indexes. Even legendary investing guru Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) has extolled the virtues of index funds for average investors. He noted that just one of every four active funds beat their passive benchmarks over the ten years ending in June. That’s why some investors aren’t singing a funeral dirge for active stock picking – just yet.
Expect the S & P 500 to rally as much as 15% over the next six months as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve pares back its aggressive tightening campaign, Stifel says. "We do not think a 'classic' U.S. recession has begun, and yet the S & P 500 has already fallen in-line with a post-WW2 recession average," he wrote. Bannister's call comes after the S & P and major averages capped off their best week since June on Friday. BMO Capital Markets' chief investment strategist Brian Belski trimmed his year-end S & P price target to 4,300, saying he had underestimated the influence of inflation. Near-term trends favor cyclical stocks like the beaten-up semiconductors, media and entertainment and tech hardware stocks, Bannister said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalet and Stifel's Barry BannisterLisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management chief investment officer, and Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how Shalet is accessing today's investing landscape, how much seasonality is a factor in this week's stock markets, and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email4% coupons in the bond market look like much better bet than stocks, says Morgan Stanley's ShaletLisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management chief investment officer, and Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how Shalet is accessing today's investing landscape, how much seasonality is a factor in this week's stock markets, and more.
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