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Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta, Amazon and Apple are all due to report this week. A few hours after the Treasury announces, the Fed will also conclude its two-day meeting, the first of 2024, and issue a statement on interest rates. “They are determined to avoid making the same mistake twice.”The week ends with Friday’s monthly jobs number for January. Rounding out the week will be a report on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. The final reading for January is expected to show consumers feeling happier about the state of the economy and inflation.
Persons: , Richard de Chazal, William Blair, Jerome Powell, , Powell, Bill Adams, ” Adams Organizations: Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Conference Board, Consumers, Labor Department, Treasury, Reserve, Comerica Bank, Fed, University of Michigan
Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."
Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade
Now there’s roughly a 50/50 chance that the Fed could either cut rates or hold them steady in March, according to futures. A few developments this past week tempered investors’ optimism, and now the possibility of a rate cut in March could be completely thrown out the window, according to economists. He echoed other Fed officials who’ve recently said that beginning to cut rates in March is just not realistic. In addition to officials’ comments, recent economic data also doesn’t bode well for a March rate cut. Markets are expecting twice as many rate cuts this year than what Fed officials themselves estimated in their latest economic projections released in December.
Persons: , Christopher Waller, , who’ve, Loretta Mester, , Mary Daly, it’s, Daly, bode, Waller, ” Bill Adams, ” Daniel Altman, Jerome Powell’s, Donald Trump, Christine Lagarde, couldn’t, Jamie Dimon, Trump, Joe Biden, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Levi Strauss, Booz Allen Hamilton, CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN — Federal Reserve, Fed, Brookings Institution, ” Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Commerce Department, Labor Department, Employers, Comerica Bank, CNN, Biden, Trump, Economic, European Central Bank, , JPMorgan, Bank of America’s, United Airlines, The Bank of Japan, Netflix, General Electric, Procter, Gamble, Johnson, Verizon, Lockheed, Haliburton, Tesla, IBM, Bank of Canada, Global, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Co, Visa, Intel, Mobile, Comcast, Capital, US Commerce Department, Chicago Fed, US Labor Department, American Express, Colgate, Palmolive, Booz, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington, ” San, East, Iran, Davos, Switzerland, Iowa, Swiss, United States
That’s the lowest annual increase registered since June 2021 and a far cry from the 11.8% increase registered in December 2022. Overall food prices were up 0.2% on a monthly basis, matching the rate of increase seen in November, CPI data shows. Eggs and ham prices went up the most in December as compared to other food categories tracked in the CPI. Ham prices rose 2.6% for the month (2.9% excluding canned ham), BLS data showed. The latest Consumer Price Index showed that grocery prices rose only 1.3% for the year ended in December.
Persons: New York CNN —, Bill Adams, chow, Wendy Edelberg, Ash Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Comerica Bank, CPI, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Ham, United States
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.30 million job openings in October. Job openings decreased by 168,000 in the finance and insurance industry, while real estate, rental and leasing had 49,000 fewer positions. The job openings rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.6% in September. "The current state of the labor market suggests no further recalibration is necessary to bring the labor market back into balance," said Nick Bunker, director of economics research at Indeed Hiring Lab. They also described the labor market as remaining "very competitive," and "trying to get to full staff levels."
Persons: Brian Snyder, Rubeela Farooqi, Nick Bunker, Conrad DeQuadros, November's, Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, Labor, Survey, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, United Auto Workers, UAW, Comerica Bank, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, White Plains , New York, South, Midwest, New York, East, Dallas
The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, the Commerce Department reported. Energy prices fell 2.6% on the month, helping keep overall inflation in check, even as food prices increased 0.2%. Goods prices saw a 0.3% decrease while services rose 0.2%. On the services side, the biggest gainers were international travel, health care and food services and accommodations. I'm hearing normalizing, not recession, but I am hearing consumer slowing down."
Persons: Dow Jones, Stocks, Bonds, Bill Adams, John Williams, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Energy, Dow Jones, Treasury, Labor, Fed, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, . New York Fed, Richmond Fed, CNBC, European Central Bank, CNBC PRO Locations: ., New York
Zillow said 30% of rental listings offer some sort of concession to prospective renters. AdvertisementMore rental listings are offering sweetened deals, as an influx in freshly constructed properties gives prospective tenants more options. Zillow said 30% of rental listings now offer at least one concession, up from 24% a year ago. Construction activity has continued through October, with 408,000 multi-family units added, according to new Census Bureau data on Friday. Multifamily units under construction in October were only down 1% from July's record high, and up by half from late 2019.
Persons: Zillow, , Bill Adams Organizations: Service, Comerica Bank Locations: Phoenix, Atlanta
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, rose 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 970,000 units last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Overall housing starts rose 1.9% to a rate of 1.372 million units in October. The number of housing under construction dipped 0.1% to a rate of 1.674 million units. The inventory of single-family housing under construction declined 0.6% to a rate of 669,000 units, the lowest level since May 2021. The stock of multi-family housing under construction edged up 0.1% to 987,000 units, not far from recent record highs.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Ben Ayers, Freddie Mac, Bill Adams, Thomas Ryan, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Zieminski Organizations: WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, LPL Financial, Commerce, Data, National Association of Home Builders, Nationwide, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Realtors, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Charlotte , North Carolina, homebuilding, Commerce Department's, Northeast, Columbus , Ohio, Dallas, West, South, Midwest
High interest rates could slow consumer spending and lead to layoffs. Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates 10 consecutive times to fight inflation as the country emerged from its pandemic recovery. Here's how experts are feeling about the economy headed into the new year, and whether they think a recession is on the horizon. Some think a recession is likely in 2024Some experts predict high interest rates will take a toll on the economy, making a recession likely sometime next year. AdvertisementOthers think a recession is unlikely in 2024Other experts don't see a recession hitting the US economy in the next year.
Persons: , Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, he's, Ken Griffin, we're, Griffin, Arend Kapteyn, Bhanu Baweja, Marc Lasry, Lasry, Rob Arnott, Jeffrey Gundlach, Bill Adams, Raphael Bostic, Brian Moynihan, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Citadel, UBS, Capital, National Bureau of Economic Research, CNBC, DoubleLine, Comerica Bank, Atlanta Federal Reserve, UCLA, Bank of America, Reuters Locations: United States, Dallas, Atlanta
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would fall 0.3%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.2% in October. Data for September was revised up to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.7% instead of the previously reported 0.6%. Core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP. Goods prices rose 0.8% in September.
Persons: Bill Adams, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: Saks Fifth, REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal, Comerica Bank, Commerce, Data, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Consumer, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wednesday, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas, Commerce Department's
Compared with 12 months ago, consumer prices rose 3.2% in October, down from the 3.7% rise in September and the smallest year-over-year increase since June. Measured year over year, core prices rose 4% in October, down from 4.1% in September, the smallest rise in two years. They have continued to fall into November, suggesting that cheaper energy could hold down inflation this month as well. Political Cartoons View All 1244 ImagesGrocery store prices rose 0.3% last month and 2.1% from a year earlier. Even with the smaller increase, rental and housing costs accounted for two-thirds of the increase in core inflation compared with a year ago.
Persons: Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Powell, , Adams, , Eric Winograd Organizations: WASHINGTON, Labor Department, Comerica Bank ., Fed, Dow, AB Global Locations: United States
US stocks saw an impressive rally as the latest CPI data surprised investors with an inflation slowdown. Bond yields dropped dramatically, with the 10-year rate plummeting over 19 basis points. AdvertisementUS stocks shot up on Tuesday, as markets rallied around October's Consumer Price Index report, which surprised investors with softer-than-predicted inflation data. Since the CPI report, market expectations of rate hike in December dropped from 14% to 0%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementAccording to October's report, prices remained flat on a monthly basis, despite expectations of a 0.1% rise.
Persons: Bond, , That's, Bill Adams, Jamie Cox Organizations: Service, October's, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Comerica Bank, Treasury, Harris Financial, Here's Locations: United States
The week starts off with a bevy of unpleasant surprises for the markets and the economy but with maybe a hope of good news on the inflation front. “The decline in oil prices will feature prominently in explaining October's CPI and PPI reports. Core CPI likely slowed in October as well, with lower prices of new and used cars, lower airfares, and lower shelter costs all leaning the same way. PPI inflation likely moderated in October, too, with diesel prices following crude oil prices lower, albeit not by as much as gasoline. Powell’s comments were not anything new, but the timing seemed to suggest he was dampening down enthusiasm in the markets.
Persons: Moody’s, Mike Johnson, , Bob Doll, Republican Sen, Tim Scott of, David Cameron, Rishi Sunak, Stocks, Bill Adams, Waran Bhahirethan, ” Adams, Jerome Powell spooked, ” Powell, Oliver Rust, Sam Bullard, ” Bullard Organizations: U.S, AAA, Louisiana Republican, GOP, Senate, Crossmark Global Investments, Republican, Tim Scott of South Carolina, Conservative, Analysts, Comerica Bank, PPI, CPI, Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Central Bank, , Wells Locations: U.S, Louisiana, Tim Scott of South, London, Iraq, Syria, Gaza City, September’s, Israel, Washington
Stocks have rallied this week as optimism builds about earnings and interest rates. Strategists at BMO Capital Markets see the gains continuing through year-end. US stocks can continue their winning streak through the end of 2023, according to BMO Capital Markets. As expected, the Federal Reserve declined to raise interest rates at its November 1 meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that higher long-term interest rates set by the market made another hike unnecessary, as Bill Adams, Comerica Bank's economy chief, recently noted.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve, Comerica
For the third month in a row, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell — dropping to 102.6 in October from an upwardly revised 104.3 in September. The decline in consumer confidence was not evident across all age groups and household income levels. People above the age of 55 exhibited the biggest monthly decline in consumer confidence. Meanwhile, consumers with a household income between $25,000 to $35,000 saw the biggest decline in confidence about the economy over the past month. In contrast, consumers with a household income between $100,000 to $125,000 saw the biggest jump in confidence over the past month.
Persons: ” Dana Peterson, “ Consumers, , Bill Adams, ” Peterson, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference, Board, Conference Board, , Big Three, United Auto Workers, Comerica Bank, LPL Financial, Federal Locations: New York, Israel
The larger-than-expected increase in sales last month reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed that the new housing market continued to be supported by a chronic shortage of previously owned houses. That is leading to very different dynamics in different parts of the housing market." New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading indicator of the housing market. The National Association of Home Builders reported last week that about a third of builders reported cutting home prices in October, a 10-month high, with the average price discount at 6%. The housing market likely stabilized in the third quarter, thanks to strong homebuilding and new home sales.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Bill Adams, resales, Freddie Mac, Dan Hnatkovskyy, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Commerce Department, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Midwest ., National Association of Home Builders, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, Dallas, Northeast, West, Midwest
That is more than double the 2.1% recorded in the second quarter and a testament to the strength of consumers. But he warned that stronger than expected economic data, particularly as regards the labor market, could leave the door open to even more pressure to raise rates or keep them higher for longer. "Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." Complicating matters is that the post-pandemic economy has not gone according to script where higher interest rates almost always blunt economic activity and cause a marked slowdown in the labor market. “The labor market is still adjusting, if it ever does, there’s a question whether retail will ever recover completely,” he says.
Persons: ” Sam Bullard, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, , George Calhoun, Calhoun, Bill Adams, , speakership Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, Stevens Institute of Technology, University of, Comerica, Locations: U.S, of New York, Washington, Israel
Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, grew 0.7% in September from the prior month. Factoring in September’s 0.4% rise in consumer prices, inflation-adjusted retail sales were up 0.3% last month. From a year earlier, retail sales and food services spending were up 3.8% in September, the strongest annual gain since February. Spending grew across most categories last month, with sales at specialty stores advancing the most, by 3%. Excluding sales at gasoline stations, retail sales still advanced 0.7% last month.
Persons: , BIll Adams, , Adams, US Energy Information Administration “, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Brian Field, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Joe Biden, Jordan Organizations: DC CNN, Comerica Bank, headwinds, UAW, United Auto Workers, US Energy Information Administration, Hamas, University of, San Francisco Fed, “ Retail, CNN, Employers, Sensormatic Solutions, Services, OPEC Locations: Washington, Israel, Iran
Stocks inched higher Wednesday as investors read through the latest Fed minutes. Central bankers remained mostly hawkish on their approach to inflation at the last policy meeting. Central bankers signaled that they would continue to remain cautious on inflation at their last policy meeting, per the latest minutes. Around two-thirds of Fed members predicted one more rate hike before the end of 2023, according to the Fed's dot plot of interest rate expectations. Investors are now looking ahead to the September inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Adams Organizations: Service, Reserve, Nasdaq, UAW, Comerica Bank, Investors, Dow Jones Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Israel
CNN —As momentum shifts toward clean energy, coal has had some unexpected staying power. A new report by the International Energy Agency found that global coal demand hit an all-time high in 2022 amid the energy crisis, eclipsing the previous record set in 2013. For example, Panasonic built a new electric vehicle plant in Kansas to aid its transition to clean energy. Why it matters: Coal, the highest carbon emitting and dirtiest energy source, is the single biggest contributor to human-created climate change. The Hollywood writers’ strike is overThe Hollywood writers’ strike is finally over after 148 days.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, , Dow tumbles, It’s, Stocks, Krystal Hur, , Bill Adams, Moody’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Commodities, Bloomberg, International Energy Agency, IEA, Panasonic, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Comerica Bank, Government, Fitch, Hollywood, Writers Guild of America, WGA, SAG Locations: Ukraine, Europe, United States, Kansas
New York CNN —Stocks tumbled Tuesday after a slew of economic data stoked fears about the US economy’s cloudy outlook and further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 388 points, or 1.1%, its biggest one-day decline since March. The stock market remains in a bull market, however — it would need to fall 20% from its peak to enter bear territory. “The Fed will see the reacceleration of house prices as a reason to keep interest rates higher for longer,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Tuesday in an interview with the Times of India that he is preparing the bank’s clients for a 7% interest rate scenario, further spooking investors.
Persons: Stocks, , Bill Adams, paring, Brent, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Moody’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Comerica Bank, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, West Texas, JPMorgan, Times, Fitch Locations: New York, Times of India
That data indicates that the Federal Reserve is still likely to hold rates steady next week, some investors say. Inflation: US inflation climbed 3.7% in August from the prior year, marking an acceleration for the second consecutive month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Excluding the boost from gas station sales, retail spending added 0.2% in August from July. Traders see a roughly 97% chance that the central bank keeps rates unchanged in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The central bank has now raised its main interest rate at 10 consecutive meetings, taking it to the highest level since the launch of the euro currency in 1999.
Persons: , , Sam Millette, Price, Taylor Swift, Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Liz Young, CNN’s Olesya, Michelle Toh ., Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Financial Network, National Federation of Independent Business, Comerica Bank, Traders, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, Cornell University, Schroders, Fashion, Cornell’s Global Labor Institute Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Schroders
The labor market is slowing in response to the U.S. central bank's hefty rate hikes to cool demand in the economy. Leisure and hospitality payrolls increased by 40,000. Household employment increased by 222,000. As a result, the unemployment rate increased to 3.8%, the highest level since February 2022, from 3.5% in July. The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, increased to 62.8%.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Bill Adams, Nonfarm, Lucia Mutikani, Nick Zieminski, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Employment, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Hollywood, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Dallas
Washington, DC CNN —The US economy grew more slowly in the second quarter than previously estimated — a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is attempting to cool demand to bring down price increases. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose at an annualized rate of 2.1% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department’s second estimate, released Wednesday morning. The second estimate factored in greater consumer spending, government outlays and exports, compared with the initial estimate. Economic growth in the second quarter was mostly broad based, but there were some signs of weakened demand for goods purchases and imports. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of economic output, was revised slightly higher in the second estimate.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Barbie, Taylor Swift, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Biden, Lydia Boussour, Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Comerica Bank, The Commerce Department, Kansas City, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Washington, United States, Wells Fargo, EY
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 24, 2023. Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312% in trading and tested October's 4.338%, before moving lower to 4.29%. Tighter credit conditions will eventually dampen economic activity and markets are choppy from the uncertainty," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. Wall Street was mixed in the first half of the trading day before accelerating losses as the session ended. Brent crude was up over 1% earlier in the day before settling up 0.35% at $83.74 a barrel.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Yen, Jeffrey Roach, Bill Adams, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan, Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Macfie, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S . Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, CHINA, China, China's, Singapore, London, Bengaluru
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