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Inflation beds down, gets comfortable
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Price growth is now fueled more by non-essentials, like air fares and new cars, than food and energy. That’s a problem, since those core prices are historically less volatile and therefore less likely to drop. As costs edge higher, Americans will probably have to endure a longer, and more expensive, inflation battle. Core inflation is now outpacing broader CPI by the widest margin since the pandemic began, signaling those sticky prices that rarely drop are playing a bigger part in keeping inflation high. High core inflation means the Federal Reserve will probably raise rates again next month, making money even more expensive for households and businesses.
A top tip for central banks: talk less, smile more
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors hang on central bankers’ every word, hoping to gain an edge for their next trade. But with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in decades, central bankers can’t easily cut borrowing costs, either. Chatty central banks are a relatively new phenomenon. Investors are also more sensitive to central banks today than in years past. Still, being more careful about what’s said, and how it’s said, could help central banks better balance their priorities.
IMF dashes hopes of growth rebound
  + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The International Monetary Fund may have just hammered the final nail in the coffin of a complete economic rebound. With downside risks dominating its outlook, the IMF’s estimates dash any remaining hopes of a full recovery from recent years’ shocks. The shortfall between actual growth and expected growth reached 1 percentage point in 2022. Put simply, the world economy will probably never regain the growth trajectory it had before the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. That’s a harsh reversal from recent hopes of a V-shaped recovery and a soft landing.
Tupperware Brands boxes itself into a corner
  + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TORONTO, April 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Tupperware Brands’ (TUP.N) options are looking less airtight. As with other direct selling companies, it casts doubt over its business model, as well as how speedily it can remake itself as consumer habits shift. An earnings misstatement, which has left it late in filing its annual report, could cause creditors to declare Tupperware has violated its debt covenants. Even if Tupperware can appease its creditors or find new investors, the rise of e-commerce has dented the fortunes of companies that lean on direct selling. Compared with the company’s heyday, customers have more options for food storage, more places to buy from, and less time for Tupperware parties.
Breakingviews: EV double-SPAC provides only weak recharge
  + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Electric-van developer Arrival just unveiled a merger with a special-purpose acquisition company, valuing it at $524 million. The twist: It already went public via a blank-check deal in 2021, at a valuation some 10 times higher. Arrival’s fall mirrors other EV hopefuls like Canoo (GOEV.O), Faraday Future Intelligent Electric (FFIE.O) and Lordstown Motors (RIDE.O). Arrival’s latest merger promises $283 million of it from Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. V’s (KCGI.N) trust account. British startup Wejo (WEJO.O)tried a similar second-SPAC gambit, though it anticipates backing its transaction with private investment.
China investment drowns out decoupling rhetoric
  + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MUMBAI, April 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - International companies are reinforcing President Xi Jinping’s message that China is open for business. Japan Display’s (6740.T) shares soared 21% on Monday after the Apple (AAPL.O) supplier said it would provide its OLED technology to China’s HKC. And Europe’s Airbus (AIR.PA) just moved to double capacity in China, agreeing to push ahead with a second China assembly line despite failing to win any new orders during French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent state visit. The new commitments provide a reminder that multinational companies are making – and want to make more – money in the People’s Republic. At least some of the decoupling rhetoric is being drowned out.
The short-lived fight nonetheless underscores the lengths at which scrappy restaurant operators will go to chase consumer dollars. For restaurants that have been open longer than 13 months, Chipotle’s sales grew faster than Sweetgreen’s in the fourth quarter. That could explain why Chipotle’s valuation, at nearly 5 times forward sales, is more than double that of Sweetgreen’s. Follow on @sharonlam_ TwitterCONTEXT NEWSChipotle Mexican Grill sued rival U.S. take-out chain Sweetgreen for violating its trademarks rights in a similarly branded burrito bowl on April 4, leading to a prompt settlement. Chipotle had argued that Sweetgreen’s “Chipotle Chicken Burrito Bowl” violated its trademark rights.
The short-lived fight nonetheless underscores the lengths at which scrappy restaurant operators will go to chase consumer dollars. For restaurants that have been open longer than 13 months, Chipotle’s sales grew faster than Sweetgreen’s in the fourth quarter. Sweetgreen billed itself as a tech innovator when it first went public and acquired robotic-kitchen company Spyce back in 2021. Follow on @sharonlam_ TwitterCONTEXT NEWSChipotle Mexican Grill sued rival U.S. take-out chain Sweetgreen for violating its trademarks rights in a similarly branded burrito bowl on April 4, leading to a prompt settlement. Chipotle had argued that Sweetgreen’s “Chipotle Chicken Burrito Bowl” violated its trademark rights.
Real estate warning: beware the backward cap
  + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The commercial real estate industry has a different kind of backward cap – one that’s also a sign of a losing streak. The cap rate comes from dividing a property’s net operating income in any given year – money from rent minus associated costs – by the asset’s value. For more than 10 years, that gap remained positive even though cap rates were falling in virtually all real estate subsectors, from shopping malls to apartments. Reuters GraphicsAsk a large-scale real estate owner – or several – about this and they are characteristically optimistic. Reuters GraphicsWhen Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the narrowed spread between cap rates and interest costs didn’t last for long.
DeSantis wins with Disney co-dependency
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - For Walt Disney (DIS.N) Chief Executive Bob Iger, action speaks louder than words. During the Magic Kingdom’s annual shareholder meeting on Monday, Iger took a shot at Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, calling him “anti-business” for his retaliation involving Disney World. DeSantis, for those keeping score, signed a law in February that gives Florida control of Disney’s theme park district, stripping some of its autonomy. The irony is that Iger plans to shower Florida with $17 billion over the next 10 years, he said at the meeting. Iger’s decision to plow more money into Florida only tethers him more to DeSantis’ whims.
Aesop deal spreads scent of stressed M&A
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TORONTO, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The scent of stress is wafting from the Brazilian backer of Aesop. Natura (NTCO3.SA)agreed to sell the luxury lotion maker to French cosmetics giant L’Oreal (OREP.PA) for about $2.5 billion. It offloaded the successful investment to shore up its balance sheet, an M&A motivation that probably will spread. With recessions being anticipated in a higher interest rate environment, more companies are bound to consider a similar calculus. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Icahn and Khan make for odd bedfellows
  + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Case in point is Illumina (ILMN.O), which on Monday was ordered by the Federal Trade Commission, led by Chair Lina Khan, to unwind its $7 billion acquisition of Grail (GRAL.O). This puts Khan on the same side as Carl Icahn, who wants Illumina to ditch the deal for seemingly opposite reasons. Illumina makes DNA sequencing machines used in medical research. The commission believes Illumina could use its dominance in DNA sequencing to hurt Grail’s competitors and raise prices. Icahn, on the other hand, worries Grail is burning Illumina’s cash, and this hurts the parent firm’s effort to keep ahead of rivals.
Money markets and currencies were unmoved on Friday morning after a grand jury’s decision to press criminal charges was announced on Thursday night. While pressing charges against a former leader can amount to a dangerous political tool if used frivolously, it also shows that future American leaders are not immune to criminal charges, creating an extra incentive for them to behave. But moments of high political drama make politicians run to their corners of the boxing ring. Follow @thereallsl on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSFormer U.S. President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on March 30 and is expected to face criminal charges next week. The poll found 46% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Trump, while 32% support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Starbucks pours weak tea on virtual union talks
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - After more than a decade of infusing its coffee with technology, Starbucks (SBUX.O) is putting a lid on one aspect of the digital transition. The $113 billion Frappuccino maker wants to negotiate with unions in person rather than allowing members to join talks by videoconference. Mobile orders accounted for about a quarter of transactions at U.S. stores in the latest quarter. Starbucks also became one of the first big companies to hold a virtual shareholder meeting after the pandemic struck and it hosted the annual event online again last week. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
SVB sale puts too-big-to-fail risk in a new bottle
  + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The sale of SVB to rival First Citizens Bancshares (FCNCA.O) addresses the first part, and doubles down on the second. First Citizens snapped up $110 billion of SVB’s assets over the weekend, at a generous $16.5 billion discount to book value. And for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, which is handling SVB’s sale, First Citizens chief Frank Holding is a known quantity. In SVB’s case, the FDIC has agreed to absorb some potential losses in the failed bank’s loan book. The FDIC expects its fund for managing failed banks will take a $20 billion hit.
Microsoft’s Activision sweet talk
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The seller’s shares rose 5% on the news Friday, but hurdles remain. Unlike the European Commission, which seems minded to approve the deal, and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, which is opposed but has a mixed success rate, a CMA block would likely be fatal. So Microsoft pressed its case, submitting data that the agency says shows it has no incentive to yank Activision’s games from rival consoles to its Xbox. Still, Microsoft’s arguments gaining traction is welcome news to merger arbitrageurs. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Trustbusters pick fight that can make friends
  + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
CHICAGO, March 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - After a year of fighting losing battles, one of the United States’ biggest trustbusters is taking on a fight where it will be easy to find support. The Federal Trade Commission proposed new rules on Thursday that would make canceling subscriptions less burdensome for consumers. That’s in stark contrast to the complex, lengthy and occasionally contentious — and unsuccessful — antitrust fights the commission had been waging. The agency is seeking a rule change, not a legal fight. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
TikTok pile-on opens two cans of worms
  + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Yet the bipartisan attack on the short-form video app, owned by China-based ByteDance, really points to two different complications – and each, in turn, opens up a much bigger can of worms. The overarching reason for Chew’s appearance is that President Joe Biden’s administration, and many in Congress, think TikTok’s Chinese backing makes it a dangerous tool of the People’s Republic. Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers accused TikTok of collecting biometric data and manipulating what information users see. It’s not just TikTok that potentially vacuums up consumer details while having close links to China. Follow @jennifersaba on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSTikTok Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew appeared before the U.S. House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee on March 23.
GameStop surge ignores basic rule of value
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - GameStop (GME.N) investors sent the company’s shares up 40% on Wednesday morning after fourth-quarter results showed it had swung to a net profit. That suggests the company that counts Chewy Founder Ryan Cohen as its chair has put some of its meme-fueled fundraising to use. Unfortunately, investors have forgotten that with such a surge, GameStop will have to grow into a new valuation. The chain reported net profit of $48 million compared with a loss of $148 million in the same quarter a year ago. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Nike outruns its competitors
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Its challenges include unsold goods it has to shift, an 8% drop in year-on-year sales in China, and falling gross profit margins. Nike is nonetheless in a relatively enviable position. Nike is also sporting a five-year total shareholder return of 105%, where Adidas and Under Armour’s are both negative. Even with blips, that shows it has been a better long-term run for investors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Fed’s self-scrutiny starts off on the wrong foot
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
Banks with assets worth $100 billion or more face elaborate reviews, which involve a body called the Large and Foreign Banking Organization Management Group. Supervisors had previously noted, and reflected to the Fed group, which vets bank ratings, that SVB had made progress in tackling some of its weaknesses. The central bank doesn’t even acknowledge the existence of the LFBO Management Group on its public-facing website. Rather than just investigate itself, the Fed board could learn from the companies it regulates. SVB was part of the Fed’s “Large and Foreign Banking Organization” supervisory regime, which covers firms with more than $100 billion of assets.
Market nerves tie US rate-setters’ hands
  + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
On Wednesday the central bank raised interest rates a quarter point. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank nearly two weeks ago upended the U.S. financial system, and the Fed and other agencies have had to provide a steadying hand. But by Wednesday morning, just before the central bank’s decision, the futures market was mostly pricing in a 25 basis point hike. Futures contracts tracking the central bank’s benchmark rate have also been shaky. Wall Street reforms passed in 2010 crystallized the central bank's duty to foster a stable financial system.
Signature Bank buyer gets a crisis dividend
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The failure of lender Signature Bank (SBNY.O) has forced them to abandon their consolidation-skeptic principles, resulting in a sizeable crisis dividend for Signature’s new owner. Bank mergers almost never happen so quickly, and nobody knows that better than Community Bancorp boss Thomas Cangemi. A study by the St. Louis Federal Reserve found that failed bank selloffs did lessen competition, but not by much. Community Bancorp said it has taken on $13 billion in loans and $25 billion in cash as part of the deal. The FDIC has been given equity appreciation rights in New York Community Bancorp that could be worth up to $300 million.
FedEx delivers, for now
  + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TORONTO, March 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - FedEx (FDX.N) is delivering a timely package to investors. FedEx is expecting to cut its U.S. headcount by some 25,000 year-over-year, by the end of this fiscal year. This division is also the largest by revenue, but it benefits greatly from scale. Operating margins dropped in the quarter to 1% from 4.6% as sales fell. Despite the fact that revenue fell in both the Freight and Ground divisions, those groups' operating margins grew.
Where is Silicon Valley's J. Pierpont Morgan?
  + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
After withdrawals lashed the banking system in 1907, financier J. Pierpont Morgan corraled his peers into using their own money to calm the crisis. The contrast with Silicon Valley – which is also embroiled in the ongoing firestorm – couldn’t be more stark. Startup and technology firms’ cash crunch precipitated the fall of Silicon Valley Bank and its parent SVB Financial (SIVB.O), which in turn sparked panic in the financial system. Silicon Valley is fragmented and built on an individualistic ethos. Real, toothsome regulation might force Silicon Valley’s great minds to realize how interconnected their ecosystem is.
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