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☆ The odds the US will avoid a recession may be dwindling, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US's chances of avoiding a recession just got smaller, according to Mohamed El-Erian. The New York Fed has priced in a 56% chance of a recession happening by September 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two reasons why America's odds of avoiding a recession may be dwindling, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. There is a material risk of this leading to higher inflation for a broader range of goods and services," El-Erian wrote. "While markets are adjusting fast to higher rates, that of the real economy is at much earlier phase with now a much bumpier road ahead."

Persons: Mohamed El, —, Erian, there's, they've Organizations: New York Fed, Service, Allianz, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, West Texas, Energy, of Labor Statistics Locations: El, Brent

☆ Mohamed El-Erian: This is a time when you need the supply side to be more flexible
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMohamed El-Erian: This is a time when you need the supply side to be more flexibleMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest economic and market trends, why he thinks the recent government shutdown drama narrows the scope for the type of legislation needed to maintain high economic growth and genuine financial stability, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ The Fed needs to decide if it wants to crush the economy to get inflation back to its target rate, famed economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

By the end of the year, the Fed will choose between the economy and its inflation target, Mohamed El-Erian said. The central will decide if it can tolerate inflation at 3% or higher — above its 2% target. Or the Fed will choose to "crush" the economy to reach its long-standing goal, he told CNBC. "The Fed at the end of the year is going to have a choice: You live with 3% or higher inflation, or your crush the economy," he said, adding that he hopes the Fed doesn't crush the economy. Though central bankers are officially aiming to lower inflation to a 2% long-run target, doing so could spark a severe downturn for the US economy, El-Erian has previously warned.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: CNBC, Service, Reserve, Allianz, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, El

☆ Headline inflation will prove 'much more' complicated to fight, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHeadline inflation will prove 'much more' complicated to fight, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's 'last mile' of the inflation fight, how quickly the Federal Reserve needs to get to its 2% inflation target, and what the market should recognize.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Federal Reserve

☆ Fed will not raise rates this month but will keep door open for one future hike, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will not raise rates this month but will keep door open for one future hike, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the El-Erian's take on the Federal Reserve's moves after recent economic data, the bigger thread to the U.S. economy, and if the economy's setup for stagflation.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, El, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ We're now in a world where it's about the supply side, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're now in a world where it's about the supply side, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Fed Chair Powell's speech from Jackson Hole, latest market trends, inflation outlook, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El, Jackson Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed may have broken the US housing market, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. That's because interest rate hikes have helped drive up mortgage rates, weighing on both supply and demand. High rates have frozen the housing market over the past year by crimping both supply and demand. AdvertisementAdvertisement"When you go from record-low mortgage rates to levels that we haven't seen for almost 20 years, you've destroyed both demand and supply. That is the way you destroy the housing market," El Erian said.

Persons: Mohamed El, you've, El Erian, We've Organizations: Service, Allianz, CNBC, Mortgage News Daily, US Locations: Wall, Silicon, El

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Don’t worry about the Fitch-induced sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 02, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] Value picks in the S&P 500A common complaint about the S&P 500 now is that it's too expensive. But there are still pockets of value in the index, CNBC Pro's Bob Pisani says.

Persons: Stocks, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Jamie Dimon, Dow Jones, Bob Pisani Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, U.S, Nasdaq, Mining, Fitch, Global, Former U.S, Allianz, JPMorgan Chase, Labor Department, Qualcomm Locations: New York City

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fitch-induced sell-off is nothing to panic over
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on August 02, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks sell-offAll major U.S. indexes sank Wednesday as investors digested news of the U.S.'s lower credit rating. [PRO] S&P 500(0)Fitch Ratings may have lost confidence in the U.S.'s creditworthiness, but analysts are still bullish on the stock market.

Persons: Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, —, Fitch Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, U.S, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Fitch, Global, JPMorgan, Former U.S, Allianz, China New, Qualcomm Locations: New York City, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S, It's

☆ U.S. debt downgrade sinks global markets — but economists are not concerned
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Global stock markets tumbled on Wednesday after ratings agency Fitch downgraded the United States' long-term credit rating — but top economists say there is nothing to worry about. U.S. stock futures were sharply lower after the downgrade, pointing to a fall of almost 300 points for the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the Wednesday open on Wall Street. Current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen described the downgrade as "outdated." Phillips said the downgrade "should have little direct impact on financial markets as it is unlikely there are major holders of Treasury securities who would be forced to sell based on the ratings change." Harvey noted that, ahead of the 2011 S&P downgrade, stocks were in correction territory, credit spreads were widening, rates were falling, and the global financial crisis "was still in the market's collective conscience" — whereas the conditions today are "almost the opposite."

Persons: Fitch, Larry Summers, Mohamed El, Erian, Summers, Janet Yellen, Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips, Phillips, Wells, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Mark Mobius, they've, CNBC's Organizations: United, AAA, Dow Jones, U.S ., Allianz Chief, Treasury, Wells Fargo Securities Head, Equity, CNBC, ., Mobius Capital Partners Locations: United States, London, Asia, Pacific, Wells Fargo, U.S

☆ People are being pulled in by 'a very strong soft landing narrative', says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeople are being pulled in by 'a very strong soft landing narrative', says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss why the markets are being propelled by the relief over what has not happened, the Fed's rate hike campaign, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge

☆ The U.S. economy is much more resilient than people are willing to acknowledge: Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is much more resilient than people are willing to acknowledge: Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor and president of Queens' College, Cambridge, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's rate hike campaign its impact on the U.S. economy, China's economic recovery, and more.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Mohamed El Organizations: Erian, Allianz, Queens ' College , Cambridge Locations: U.S

☆ Banking turmoil is far from over. Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Mohamed El-Erian have renewed their warnings about unresolved risks.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bill Ackman, Jeffrey Gundlach, Mohamed El-Erian and others are warning the banking turmoil is far from over. That's prompting top economists and investors to once again warn that the banking turmoil is far from over. Below is a selection of the most recent warnings on US banking risks from high-profile investors, analysts and other experts. Bill Ackman, billionaire investor"The FDIC's failure to update and expand its insurance regime has hammered more nails in the coffin," Ackman said Wednesday on Twitter. He was raising doubts about Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's suggestion during a Wednesday press conference that the worst of the banking turmoil is over.

☆ Russia is landing new buyers for its sanctioned diesel all over the world and Brazil's taking advantage of the steep discounts.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're talking energy — and I'm sharing a conversation with a leading expert on Russian diesel flows. Phil Rosen: You shared some data on how Brazil is seeing a dramatic uptick in Russian diesel imports, and a decrease in diesel imports from other sources, including the US. It really does appear that Russian diesel is muscling in on US market share in Brazil. How does this data on Brazil's diesel imports fit into the broader picture with China and India? Russian diesel is displacing traditional suppliers to these countries, while trade flows are changing to backfill the loss of Russian diesel into Europe.

☆ Powell's Fed may be remembered not for conquering inflation but for undermining its own credibility, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Mohamed El-Erian has slammed Powell's Fed again, saying it'll be remembered more for the bad than the good. The central bank will likely be remembered more for damaging its own credibility than for taming inflation, he said. El-Erian has been an ardent critic of the Fed in their approach toward tackling high US inflation. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. El-Erian has repeatedly criticized Powell's Fed, blaming them for a string of failures over the past couple of years in tackling high US inflation.

☆ Markets are suffering from 'recession-avoided syndrome,' chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are suffering from 'recession-avoided syndrome,' chief economist saysAllianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran says "the picture isn't very rosy" for markets right now, and that they're suffering from "recession-avoided syndrome."

☆ European markets head for higher open ahead of flash PMI data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Surging inflation may appear largely in the past, but a shift to a 25 basis point hike at the next Federal Reserve policy meeting is a "mistake," according to Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian. "'I'm in a very, very small camp who thinks that they should not downshift to 25 basis points, they should do 50," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday. Inflation, he said, has shifted from the goods to the services sector, but could very well resurge if energy prices rise as China reopens. El-Erian expects inflation to plateau around 4%. "That's probably the best outcome," he said of the latter.

☆ Here's why Wall Street is warning the Fed blew it on inflation and it won't save the stock market from crashing
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The Fed blew it on inflation stocks are going to have to suffer as a result. The central bank has no choice now but to keep hiking until inflation is down, experts have said. Here are five top voices in markets warning investors not to pin their hopes on a Fed put to save stocks. El-Erian has been a loud critic of the Fed's response to inflation this year, slamming central bankers for saying inflation was "transitory" in 2021. That's the cost of the Fed being late to the game, and the central bank can't back away from its monetary tightening now, El-Erian warned.

☆ Fed faces 'difficult road' going into 2023 with prospect of recession and inflation, says Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed faces 'difficult road' going into 2023 with prospect of recession and inflation, says Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins CNBC's "Squawk Box" to discuss recession forecasts and the prospect of 'sticky' inflation in 2023.

☆ Allianz Chief Economic Adviser El-Erian believes core inflation 'is still going up'
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-09 | by ( Ashley Capoot | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Ahead of the release of the latest consumer price index reading this week, Allianz Chief Economic Adviser Mohamed El-Erian told CBS' "Face The Nation" Sunday that he predicts headline inflation "will probably come down to about 8%," but that core inflation "is still going up." Core inflation is what measures the drivers of inflation and how broad they are, so El-Erian said an increase in core inflation means "we still have an inflation issue." Even if core inflation is still on the rise, however, El-Erian said it will eventually come down. "The question is, does it come down with a slowdown in the economy or a major recession?" The oil producer group OPEC+ announced its largest supply cut since 2020 on Wednesday, and El-Erian said this decision "does hurt the U.S.," as it risks causing inflation to increase again.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed, global and U.S. markets.

☆ Yields are in the driver's seat, says Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYields are in the driver's seat, says Allianz's Mohamed El-ErianMohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed, global and US markets.

☆ Morgan Stanley sees dollar surge setting the stage for 'something to break'
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. dollar's strength is setting the stage for a crisis, as well as a looming bottom in the stock market, according to Morgan Stanley. Fears are rising that the moves in the dollar will pressure corporate earnings, and "such US dollar strength has historically led to some kind of financial/economic crisis," Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson and others said in a client note. "What's amazing is that this dollar strength is happening even as other major central banks are also tightening monetary policy at a historically hawkish pace," Wilson wrote. "The recent move in the US dollar creates an untenable situation for risk assets that historically has ended in a financial or economic crisis, or both," Wilson wrote. "In our view, such an outcome is exactly how something does break, which leads to MAJOR top for the US dollar and maybe rates, too," Wilson wrote.

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