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☆ Many Americans fear a recession as severe as 2008 could be coming. Here’s what experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

To that point, 68% are expecting a recession in the next six months, and 80% of those respondents expect it to be severe. Experts weigh in3 reasons it can be smarter to rent, even if you can buy Yet, predictions from various experts are not as dire. watch nowAt Raymond James, the current forecast calls for a "very, very mild" recession, according to chief economist Eugenio Aleman. Raymond James is predicting a 1.3% growth rate for 2023 and 0.6% for 2024 — which coincides with the firm's forecast for a "very, very mild recession," Aleman said. To cope with high inflation, Nationwide's survey found more than half of respondents are eating out less, with 54%.

Persons: Jamie Grill, We're, Kathy Bostjancic, it's, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, Aleman, Nonfarm, —, Gray, Tang Ming Tung, Bostjancic Organizations: Finance, Nationwide, U.S . Department of Labor, ADP, Employers, Challenger, Federal Reserve, Getty, Auto Locations: U.S, American

Washington, DC CNN —New home sales surged in May, as buyers looked to new construction as an alternative to the low inventory of existing homes for sale. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell and buy another home at a much higher rate. Sales of existing homes have been down for the past few months, while new home sales have been rising. Mortgage rates reached as high as 6.79% at the end of May as uncertainty moved through the financial industry due to the debt ceiling standoff. This increase in mortgage rates cooled mortgage applications.

Persons: “, ”, Nancy Vanden Houten, Ryan Sweet, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, ” Aleman Organizations: DC CNN, US Department of Housing, Urban Development, Census Bureau, Oxford Economics, Federal Reserve Locations: Washington, Northeast, South, West

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

☆ Goalkeeper scores from inside his own penalty area in wild ending to Mexican soccer match
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Matias Grez | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —Goalkeeper Santiago Ramírez scored an absurd long-range goal to cap off a wild semifinal between his Atlético Morelia team and Celaya in Mexico’s Liga de Expansión. Trailing 2-1 in the second leg and 3-2 on aggregate, Celaya threw everything forward in a desperate attempt to find an equalizer in stoppage time. With Revuelta and the rest of his teammates attempting to run back to their unguarded goal, Ramírez let fly with a booming kick out of his hands that sent the ball into the opposition net, bouncing just twice in the penalty area on the way. Santiago Ramírez aprovechó que el arquero de los Toros fue a rematar y con este despeje anotó el 1-3 definitivo en el Miguel Alemán. It was a fitting end to a chaotic game that featured five red cards – two for Celaya and three for Morelia – and four goals.

☆ What the banking crisis means for your job
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The Fed’s latest economic projections, released on Wednesday, were largely in line with those from its last forecast, in December. “We are in a situation with inflation elevated and now a banking crisis on top of that,” Brusuelas told CNN. “I think that the Fed’s going to move toward an above 5% unemployment rate forecast, either in June or by September,” he said. “But the costs of failing are much higher.”A new wild cardThen there’s also the scenario that the Fed could get an assist from an unlikely bedfellow — the banking crisis. I do think the odds of a recession have increased in the wake of this banking sector crisis,” he said.

☆ 41% of adults are preparing for a recession. It's time to stress-test your income, advisors say
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Yet many Americans — 41% — have taken steps to prepare for a possible economic downturn, according to a survey by Morning Consult. Still, there are a few steps advisors say you should take now to make sure you are prepared to weather a downturn. Barry Glassman president of Glassman Wealth Services"Stress-test your income against your ongoing obligations," Glassman said. The upside for conservative investors is they are now able to get higher interest rates on their cash. Reduce your debtsHigher interest rates mean consumer debts are climbing higher.

☆ U.S. core capital goods orders post largest gain in five months; shipments surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Dan KoeckSummarySummary Companies Core capital goods orders increase 0.8% in JanuaryCore capital goods shipments surge 1.1%Durable goods orders drop 4.5% on aircraftPending home sales increase 8.1% in JanuaryWASHINGTON, Feb 27 (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods increased by the most in five months in January while shipments of those so-called core goods rebounded, suggesting that business spending on equipment picked up at the start of the first quarter. These core capital goods orders dropped 0.3% in December. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders edging up 0.1%. Core capital goods orders increased 5.3% on a year-on-year basis in January. Shipments of core capital goods bounced back 1.1% after declining 0.6% in December.

☆ As new data shows inflation rose in January, here's what consumers can expect next
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

While the inflation rate is poised to subside this year, "it will not be a straight line," Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman told CNBC.com at the time. The Federal Reserve is tasked with getting inflation under control, while trying to avoid a deep economic recession. What the latest inflation measure showsThe personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCEPI, is the central bank's preferred measure as it seeks to bring inflation down to a 2% target. Based on Friday's data, it's "almost a certainty" the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points in March, and maybe even higher, Luther said. A period of below 2% inflation would be needed to see prices subside back to where they were, Luther said.

☆ Economists still worry recession could be on the way. But here's how a soft landing may still be possible
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We are still on the path to lower inflation rates," House said. Economists said they still expect a recession following the new January inflation data. But the Federal Reserve lacks tools to prompt that area to cool off, he said. The new data shows slowing disinflation, he said, while the Federal Reserve will probably have to hold rates higher for longer. A 'Goldilocks scenario' could bring a soft landingThere is still hope, however, that the central bank may execute a so-called "soft landing," according to House.

☆ Here's the breakdown of the inflation report for January — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

High inflation has followed the U.S. economy into 2023, as consumers continued to see high prices in January. Inflation rose 0.5% for the month and 6.4% over the past 12 months, according to consumer price index data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. Both results were higher than some economists' expectations, which had predicted 0.4% for the month and 6.2% year over year. Almost half of Americans think we're already in a recessionThe CPI measures the average change in consumer prices based on a broad basket of goods and services. Other areas that saw a monthly decline in prices include used cars and trucks, medical care, and airline fares.

☆ Factbox: Who was freed in Nicaragua's surprise political prisoners release?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Cristiana Chamorro and Pedro Joaquin ChamorroCristiana Chamorro was placed under house arrest in 2021, just as she was leading Ortega in polls to unseat him as president at elections. Her brother Pedro Joaquin Chamorro was also arrested and jailed the same month, according to newspaper La Prensa. Arturo CruzAn academic who was Nicaragua's ambassador to the United States between 2007 and 2009, Cruz was arrested in 2021 after returning to Managua from Washington. Like Mairena, he was arrested in 2021 over accusations of crimes during the 2018 protests. On Thursday, he declined to board the plane to Washington, preferring to stay home instead, one of only two prisoners to do so.

☆ Over 200 Nicaraguan prisoners, including top Ortega critics, freed and sent to U.S.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Ismael Lopez | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MANAGUA, Feb 9 (Reuters) - More than 200 political prisoners in Nicaragua were released and flown to the United States on Thursday, including leading critics of President Daniel Ortega, in what Washington described as a "constructive step" towards improving human rights. The mass release "opens the door to further dialogue between the United States and Nicaragua regarding issues of concern," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. A Nicaraguan judge denounced the 222 prisoners as "traitors" in a televised statement, and said they had been "deported." The released prisoners will go through the humanitarian parole process, the Biden administration said in a note to Congress. It added that the Nicaraguan government had made "its own decision" to release the prisoners, and urged further steps to ensure human rights in Nicaragua.

[1/5] A few of the more than 200 freed political prisoners from Nicaragua disembark from a bus after they arrived in the United States at Dulles International Airport in Virginia near Washington, U.S., February 9, 2023. A Nicaraguan judge denounced the 222 prisoners released as "traitors" in a televised statement, and said they had been "deported." The released prisoners will be allowed to enter the United States on emergency humanitarian grounds, the administration of President Joe Biden said in a note to Congress. She added: "This sovereign decision of the Nicaraguan state has been taken in the supreme interest of our country, to live in harmony." In addition to the 222 individuals who went to the United States, two others were freed but chose not to travel, the State Department said.

☆ Latest weekly jobless claims jump to 240,000
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —First-time weekly claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 240,000 for the week ended November 19, according to data released Wednesday by the Department of Labor. Alemán said he’s looking for signs of a broad-based increase in claims from other industries, in which workers aren’t typically covered by severance payments. Weekly jobless claims are volatile – especially around the holidays – and frequently revised, economists for Oxford Economics wrote in a note Wednesday. “Therefore, we don’t read too much into the larger-than-anticipated drop in claims,” they wrote. On average, weekly initial jobless claims have been below 215,000 this year.

☆ U.S. retail sales rise solidly; fourth-quarter GDP estimates raised
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

With inflation cooling considerably in October, economists estimate real retail sales increased 0.9% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, increased 1.6%. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales increased 0.7% last month. Data for September was revised higher to show these so-called core retail sales rising 0.6% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Core retail salesCore retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

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