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First Republic's demise was the third regional bank failure since early March, when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank folded within days of each other. There is cautious optimism on Wall Street that First Republic will be the last failure of this period. However, reports from other regional banks weren't nearly as dire, with many reporting that deposits had stabilized and were growing again. However, the failure of First Republic could cause some more turbulence, at least in the short-term, for both deposits and bank stocks. "We don't believe that regional banks are completely out of the woods," Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek said in a note to clients on Monday.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is proven to be a little stickier than people expected, says Barclays' Venu KrishnaVenu Krishna, head of US equity strategy with Barclays Investment Bank, and Aditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. and global economist, join 'TechCheck' to discuss their thoughts on the market and the decline in European bank stocks.
Economists expect hiring remained strong in February and that wages grew even faster than they did in January. Economists forecast 225,000 new jobs were added in February, lower than January's surprisingly strong 517,000 jobs, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.4%. The persistently strong jobs market and hotter-than-expected January inflation data changed the outlook for the Fed. The futures market is now pricing an end point for Fed rate hikes near 5.75%, against the current target range of 4.50%-4.75%.
Here's why spending is likely to slow down, and why it could mean more turmoil for markets. Retailers and others believe that consumer expenditure is likely to fall, after kicking off the first weeks of 2023 on the rise. Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge showed a 1.8% jump in consumer expenditure that month, compared with December. It's fair to say most analysts weren't expecting consumer spending data to be so resilient in January — and some suggest those figures might be overblown. A dip in consumer spending might signal the beginning of a sustained drop in demand in the US.
The outlook comes ahead of the central bank's March meeting when investors expect another quarter-percentage point — or 25 basis point — rate increase. Bank of America, for instance, said it thinks policymakers may have to take the benchmark funds rate to the 6% range. "This will likely lead to a recession, because the non-consumer sectors of the economy already look soft. In the Cleveland Fed white paper , the authors suggested the central bank reconsider its 2% inflation target because it isn't likely to achieve it anytime soon. It said core PCE inflation is likely to cool only to 2.75% by 2025, adding that "a deep recession would be necessary" for the Fed to achieve its goal.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBhave: The October CPI report signaled a step in the right direction for cooling down inflationAditya Bhave, Senior U.S. and Global Economist at Bank of America, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss the impact of October's CPI report on the markets.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOngoing Fed rate increases are appropriate to fight hot labor market, says BofA's Aditya BhaveAditya Bhave, Bank of America senior U.S. economist, joins 'Power Lunch' to share his reaction to the September Fed meeting minutes, the wage inflation seen in the labor market, and the impact of a strong dollar on global economies.
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