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☆ Retail investors slow to buy into ARK Innovation Fund's blistering rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, June 21(Reuters) - Individual investors have given a cold shoulder to Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Fund during their searing run this year, but some market watchers believe that may change if risk appetite keeps improving. The $8 billion fund, which outperformed all U.S. equity funds during the pandemic rally of 2020 but suffered a steep fall last year, is up nearly 37% year-to-date, outpacing broader markets. ARK Invest, the fund's parent company, did not respond to a request for comment. Domestic equity funds and ETFs posted a total of $151.3 billion in outflows year to date through June 7th, according to data from trade group the Investment Company Institute. Optimism among individual investors vaulted to a 19-month high in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey.

Persons: Todd Rosenbluth, Rosenbluth, Virag Shah, Van, Morgan Stanley, Shah, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Innovation Fund, Invest, Investment Company Institute, Van Leeuwen & Company, American, of, Tesla, Roku Inc, Sciences, Thomson Locations: Van Leeuwen

The 15% year-to-date rally in the S&P 500 (.SPX) is pulling once doubtful investors back into the market. Meanwhile, options investors are buying calls - bets on upside in stocks - at levels not seen in years. A record 1.8 million S&P 500 calls traded on Thursday, helping lift the one-month moving average of calls-to-puts to the highest in at least four years, Trade Alert data showed. The S&P 500 has posted a median gain of 18% in the 12 months after clearing the 20% threshold, LPL Financial data showed. One encouraging signal is that a greater number of S&P 500 stocks are heading higher, in addition to the handful of megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) that led gains this year.

Persons: you've, Emily Roland, Goldman Sachs, Willie Delwiche, we're, Delwiche, Brent Kochuba, Matt Stucky, Ken Mahoney, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: YORK, National Association of Active Investment, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Trade, John Hancock Asset Management, Mount Research, American Association of, Investors, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Microsoft, Nvidia, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ What's next for stocks partly depends on how much you believe the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The S & P ended at 4,372, exactly where it was at 2 PM when the Fed made its announcement. In English: I am not saying a soft landing is happening, but we could make it. The stock market certainly believes in the soft landing. The S & P is up nearly 5% this month alone on a belief the job market will remain strong and the Fed is done. But the S & P is up over 500 points (more than 13%) since bottoming at 3,855 on March 13th.

Persons: Jeff Gundlach, doesn't, Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jeffrey Yale Rubin, FOMO Organizations: Fed, Powell, Bulls, Birinyi Associates, American, of, Bears

☆ Many are declaring the bear over, but a new bull market is more a process than a single moment
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The review is merely to note that the beginning of a potential bull market is a process, not a moment, occurring as the weight of the evidence gradually shifts in favor of the optimists. A new bull market, even if in place, doesn't always mean a timely sprint to hefty further gains. In a bear market, that's toppy; while in a bull market backdrop, such a level of optimism is fairly routine. In a bear market, 14 is "too low," In a bull market, it's middling. The S & P 500 has built a cushion with which to absorb routine pullbacks without jeopardizing the broader trend.

Persons: JFK, didn't, –, doesn't, Stephen Suttmeier, Bull headwinds, I've, they've, there's Organizations: Bank of America, Investment Group, Lehman, Investment, American Association of Locations: New York, –

☆ AI hype driven by names like Nvidia is finally luring retail investors back into the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Retail investors have finally returned to the stock market, lured by the AI hype, Vanda Research said. The firm said retail investors helped drive a daily average flow of $1.36 billion into the stock market over the past week. The hype in artificial intelligence stocks like Nvidia, combined with the resolution of the US debt ceiling last week helped finally push retail investors back into the stock market. AI stocks should also see continued buying pressure from retail investors in the coming weeks, according to the note, and there's still room to run as retail investors buying activity has not yet reached worrying levels. Ultimately, the return of the retail investor to the stock market should help drive stock prices higher despite worries of a looming recession and frothy valuations from more bearish investors, according to Vanda.

Persons: Vanda, Giacomo Pierantoni, there's, Pierantoni Organizations: Vanda Research, Morning, Nvidia

☆ Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Sentiment indicators have been at extremes, but investors don't seem in any hurry to take advantage of it. That is a good thing: sentiment indicators are mostly useful at extremes, and when sentiment gets this pessimistic it is usually associated with at least short-term market bottoms. This morning, for example, Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets also pointed out that many sentiment indicators were at extremes. In theory, this is good news: she notes that when sentiment gets this bad, the S & P 500 is up 15% on average over the next 12 months. Other sentiment indicators are also at extremes.

☆ Investor pessimism is reaching extremes, and that may be good for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The monthly Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey shows "investor sentiment close to levels of pessimism seen at lows of past 20 years," according to the survey. This pessimism is consistent with other investor sentiment surveys. The weekly AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, out last Thursday, was at a 6-month low for bullish sentiment and close to the levels of last September, which were near historic lows. Two rules about sentiment indicators: 1) they are contrarian indicators, and 2) they are most useful when the readings are at extremes (as they are now). The firm also noted that other sentiment indicators (money flows, private clients' asset allocation) are not yet in "capitulation" territory.

☆ Markets are still hostage to the Fed, but managing to hang in there
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Starting with the January jobs report released Feb. 3, it has been a relentless stream of bad news on the inflation front. Surprisingly, we are a mere 4% off the recent highs of early January and are flat for the week going into Friday trading . Investor sentiment is awful The AAII Sentiment Survey, a survey of the membership of the American Association of Individual Investors, indicated bearish sentiment remained unusually high, and bullish sentiment unusually low. Bullish: 23.4% (historic average: 37.5%) Bearish: 44.8% (historic average: 31.0%) Neutral: 31.8% (historic average: 31.5%) Source: AAII "The market's between a rock and a hard place," Alec Young, chief investment strategist at MapSignals, told me. Bottom line: the markets are still hostage to inflation and the Fed.

☆ Who is right? Bulls and bears each have reliable indicators backing them in this confusing market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Those heralding a new bull market underway in stocks have some historically undefeated statistical signals propelling their call. Sure, the S & P 500 's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day, a positive though not flawless input. After each of the five prior times, the S & P was up three, six, 12 and 24 months later. Here he shows the difference in S & P 500 performance after the S & P 500 pushes above its 200-day average based on whether the Fed is easing policy or not. Valuations and higher bond yields keep Citi from believing there is much upside to the S & P 500 from here, but this could mean fundamental support is no longer eroding quickly.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns that stocks will face losses rivaling 1929, 2000, and 2007 as high valuations and poor investor sentiment create a "trap door" scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

There are two major driving forces of stock-market returns, according to John Hussman: valuations and investor sentiment. "Put simply, we estimate that the S&P 500 faces the same prospect of full-cycle loss and return-free risk as it did in 1929, 2000, and 2007. The S&P 500, in its current form since 1957, fell more than 46% from 2000-2002 and more than 52% from 2007-2009. Hussman FundsAs for investors sentiment — or what Hussman calls "market internals" — he uses a proprietary measure of the uniformity of investor behavior. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009.

☆ Did the market already show its hand in the first week of 2023? What we've learned so far
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Recall that at the start of last year, the popular bet was for a smooth and painless rotation from expensive growth stocks to financials and cyclicals. It didn't last: The S & P financial sector trounced utilities by seven percentage points in just the first week of 2022. Yet the Nasdaq 100 's premium to the overall S & P 500 remains at 25% — higher than at any point in the decade before the Covid pandemic hit. And the broader tape, as measured by the equal-weighted S & P 500, continues to act better than the top-heavy headline index. This egalitarian basket, buyable via the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) , is up 16% from the autumn low, is down less than 12% from its record high and has broken to a new cycle high against the traditional S & P 500.

☆ Investor sentiment is worse than it was at the depths of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 - but that suggests a stock market bottom is near, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investor sentiment is worse than it was at the depths of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, according to Fundstrat. But stock market conditions today are not as bad as they were in 2008, suggesting a bottom is near. Based on a rolling 51-week average of bearish sentiment measured by the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, sentiment is at its lowest level on record since the survey began in 1987, Fundstrat's Ken Xuan said in a Thursday note. All-in, the overly bearish investor sentiment, combined with inflation showing signs of falling "like a rock," means the stock market is near a bottom if it hasn't already been realized. And that sets the stock market up for a big rally in 2023, which Fundstrat's Tom Lee believes can eclipse more than 20% to his 2023 S&P 500 target of 4,750.

☆ Here are the kinds of stocks set to rally as the stock market changes its character amid inflation 'falling like a rock', according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The character of the stock market is changing as inflation starts to fall "like a rock," according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. These are the types of stocks that see short-term upside if inflation continues to fall, according to Lee. Thus, the fall in gasoline will have an impact on both actual and perceived inflation," Lee said. Lee also highlighted that during the 1970's period of high inflation, gasoline prices never eased lower like they have so far this year. These are the types of stocks that should benefit most from falling inflation and a year-end market rally, according to Lee.

☆ Stagflation is now the consensus view on Wall Street for 2023 as investor sentiment remains historically bearish, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The consensus view on Wall Street is that stagflation will plague the stock market in 2023, according to Bank of America. A survey from the bank found that 92% of fund managers expect a period of high inflation and low economic growth next year. The bearish outlook comes as cash levels sit near record highs, signaling the lingering bearish sentiment. That dynamic sets contrarian investors up for a solid trade, as investor sentiment remains historically bearish. Other sentiment indicators are also showing overwhelmingly bearish sentiment among investors, like the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment survey.

☆ What's really behind the sudden tension-release rally and whether it can last
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. -A sudden tension-release rally as a benign inflation report collides with a market wound tight against further adverse surprises, driving a burst of short-covering and a grab for equity exposure and takes the S & P 500 directly to its next noteworthy test. Still, the S & P is merely up less than 1% for November, so it remains whippy within a range. -The crypto tumult is far from sorted out but the risk rally today taking some pressure off. -VIX down almost 3 under 24, ratifying the lift in indexes and expressing relief at having the big known catalysts (election, CPI) past for now.

☆ Lloyd Blankfein reminds investors that plenty could go right to send the stock market higher despite overwhelmingly negative sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

This year's stock market decline has flipped sentiment, turning most investors overly negative. But former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein reminded investors that any good news could send stocks higher. But according to Blankfein, sentiment has shifted overly negative as market participants digest the continuous flow of bad news. "Seems EVERYONE negative on the [market] with sticky inflation, more rate hikes, other bad stuff ahead," he tweeted over the weekend. GMO's Jeremy Grantham said the fundamentals are as bad as "we have ever seen," adding that the US stock market is in the early stages of deflating a "super bubble."

☆ The conditions needed for a stock market bottom are forming as investors get overly bearish, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Conditions are forming that suggest a stock market bottom could be near, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said. To Kolanovic's point, investors are growing increasingly bearish on the stock market. AAII's most recent investor sentiment survey showed just 17.7% of its respondents were bullish on the direction of stock prices over the next six months. But overly bearish sentiment readings rarely (if ever) serve as a catalyst that will launch stock prices higher. That would help drive another tactical bounce in growth stocks, according to the note, and could ultimately end the significant drop in the stock market.

☆ Fundstrat's Tom Lee is sticking with his bullish year-end stock market forecast even as yields soar and equities plunge amid sticky inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Plunging stock prices, soaring interest rates, and sticky inflation are not enough to change Fundstrat's conviction on the market. Fundstrat's Tom Lee outlined why he still expects a year-end stock market rally in a Friday note. "Fed could do far less tightening as the market is doing Fed's work," he argued. Yet Fundstrat's Tom Lee remains resolute in his view that the stock market will soar into year-end. That commentary has led investors to expect even more rate hikes going into 2023, with a terminal fed funds rate of 4.6%.

☆ Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022: Cramer encourages investors buy this tech stock now if they don't own it
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Joshua Natoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThursday, Sept. 22, 2022: Cramer encourages investors buy this tech stock now if they don't own itJim Cramer and Jeff Marks share why the latest AAII investor sentiment read of 60% bearishness has them ready to add to the portfolio. They share several stocks that are potential buys amid this weakness. They also explain why rising yields could hurt the stock market for the foreseeable future.

☆ 2 takeaways from Thursday’s 'Morning Meeting': We want to buy on market weakness
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. We have no choice but to buy Quick mentions: MRVL, LLY, NVDA, META 1. We believe that Meta (META) is a buy right here because WhatsApp growth is accelerating, made clear by its recent deal with Salesforce (CRM). THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Assessing where the S&P 500 will bottom this time as it heads back toward June lows
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Given how the oversold indicators are piling up, a test or near-test of buyer's appetites is underway or should be soon. Having 2022 act as the year when all the tough medicine was administered has some appeal both for policy makers and investors. -Seeing some migration toward lower-volatility stocks, pharma, staples, some energy and Microsoft bouncing small after a recent breakdown. Need new lows or a capital-markets accident to jerk it much higher.

☆ The individual investor is pessimistic. Here is what that means for the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The percentage of investors feeling bearish about the stock market is reaching levels last seen during the Great Recession, according to a weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors. It's the fifth time the percentage of bearish respondents broke that 60% threshold since data began being collected in 1987. Before that, the percentage of bearish investors hit this level at two points in 1990. A high number of bearish investors, for example, means that many have already sold. The number of bears rose to 31.4% from 28.2% last week, Investors Intelligence found.

We're buying 25 shares of Microsoft (MSFT) at roughly $240 each. In addition to the oversold Oscillator, we're putting some cash to work Thursday as a counter to the poor sentiment in the market. But at a minimum, we think these indicators suggest there's a lot of negativity already priced into the market. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

☆ What Cramer is watching Thursday — 2-year yield says Fed going much higher; job market remains tight
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

An inflation target from the Fed of 2%, does that mean we need the nation's unemployment rate to double? Weekly jobless claims up slightly to 213,000, but that's fewer than expected and suggesting the labor market remains tight. UBS upgrades Club holding Eli Lilly (LLY) to buy from neutral (hold), raises price target to $363 per share from $335. Barclays lowers price target on United Parcel Service (UPS) to $180 per share from $200, keeps equal weight (hold) rating. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

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