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And, with earnings season set to ramp up, that could mean further gains. Already, on Friday, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo were rallying in midday trading after reporting their latest results this week, an auspicious start to the earnings season. A strong earnings season Earnings results next week will be dominated by reports from the banking sector, giving investors further insight into the health of the capital markets as well as the consumer. Several regional banks are also set to announce how they did in the most recent quarter as well, such as PNC Financial Services Group and Citizens Financial Group. Even so, investors are optimistic about the outlook for corporate profits this earnings season, especially with expectations having come down.
Persons: what's, Oppenheimer, Wells Fargo, Charlie Ashley, Ashley, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ross Mayfield, Catalyst's Ashley, Baird's Mayfield, Mayfield, Charles Schwab, Huntington Bancshares Organizations: Dow Jones, Tech, Nvidia, JPMorgan Chase, Traders, Federal Reserve, Catalyst Funds, Nasdaq, Ashley . Bank of America, PNC Financial Services Group, Citizens Financial Group, Private Wealth Management, Treasury, Columbus, Columbus Day, Index, United Airlines, Hunt Transport Services, Citigroup, State, Goldman Sachs Group, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Johnson, Bank of America, PNC Financial Services, UnitedHealth, Price, PPG Industries, Steel Dynamics, Discover Financial Services, CSX, Abbott Laboratories, U.S . Bancorp, Financial Group, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Netflix, T Bank Corp, Elevance, Truist, Blackstone, Housing, Schlumberger, Procter, Gamble, Fifth Third Bancorp, Regions Financial, American Express Locations: Ashley, bullish, Prologis, NAHB
Investors who fear stubborn inflation, if not an outright rebound, got a bit of a salve on Friday morning. Wholesale prices showed no change month over month for September, coming in below expectations. The producer price index report may help offset some of the slight concerns about Thursday's consumer price index report, which was a bit hotter than expected. The personal consumption expenditures price index for September will be released on Oct. 31. "We think the Fed is really still on track to cut 25 [basis points] at each of the next two meetings," Seif added.
Persons: David Seif, Seif, Wells Organizations: Nomura Securities, Fed, PPI, Traders, JPMorgan Chase, BNY Mellon Locations: Wells Fargo
Gold lacks momentum as investors brace for Fed minutes
  + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices slipped on Thursday as investors booked profits after a sustained rally and pressure from institutional investors looking to raise cash, while focus shifted to U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate path. Gold prices were subdued on Wednesday as investors strapped in for minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting for insights into the U.S. central bank's interest rate trajectory. "Gold prices seem to be seeing a much-needed retracement lower. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Tuesday that weakening inflation trends make it likely the U.S. central bank can implement further interest rate cuts. Zero-yield bullion tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment.
Persons: I'm, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Susan Collins Organizations: Federal, Index, Traders, U.S . Consumer, Boston, Gold Locations: U.S, North America
For those looking to hedge against geopolitical risk, stocks are actually a pretty good way to do so, along with oil and gold. Bank of America looked at the best performers in the three and six months after major geopolitical events, including the Iraq War and Russia's invasion of Ukraine . The investment bank found that oil has historically been the best performer in the three months following major geopolitical events, generating a median return of 8.3%. On the other hand, gold is the best geopolitical hedge in the six months after such episodes. "[B]ad geopolitical events have not been bearish for risk assets in recent years, arguably the opposite," analyst Michael Hartnett wrote in a Thursday note.
Persons: , They've, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Locations: Iraq, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, Taiwan
Despite the major indexes trading near their all-time highs, there are still plenty of stocks that JPMorgan is bearish on in the coming quarter. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan surveyed its analysts for their top short ideas, or stocks that might underperform going into the fourth quarter. Shares have risen 9% in 2024, leading to what JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut believes is an expensive valuation. JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Goldman also has an underweight rating on Beyond Meat . "Plant-based meat continues to struggle as the fad fades," the analyst wrote.
Persons: Stocks, Stanley Black, Decker, Michael Rehaut, Kenneth Goldman, Stephen Tusa, Mark Strouse Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Traders, Rockwell Automation, ROK, FuelCell Energy Locations: , underinvestment
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. AdvertisementOne election result may cause 'seismic shocks'Partisans are convinced that this election is the most important ever, as they always are. The market isn't convinced, judging by where the VIX is trading just a month away from election day. "Let's think about a world where Trump gets into power and poses a 60% tariff on China," Orlik said.
Persons: there's, Tom Orlik, , Tim Walz, JD Vance, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, shouldn't, who'd, Nancy Davis, Davis, Tanvir Sandhu, Sandhu, Chris Murphy, Murphy, Harris, Trump, Joe Biden, Orlik, Trump's, Murphy isn't, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, White, Trump, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg Intelligence, Traders, Biden, Nvidia, Qualcomm Locations: Susquehanna, China
Oil prices could surge past $200 a barrel if Iran's oil installations are taken offline, a chief commodities expert said. AdvertisementOil prices could roar past $200 a barrel if escalating tensions in the Middle East decimate Iran's crude output, a chief commodities analyst told CNBC. In the $200 per barrel scenario, Brent crude, the international benchmark, would gain 161% from its current price. Still, some investors are betting on the possibility of damaged oil output, Bloomberg reports. These restrictions were introduced to prop up oil prices, but have cost the alliance market share.
Persons: , SEB's Bjarne Schieldrop, Schieldrop, Brent, Bob McNally, haven't Organizations: Service, CNBC, Traders, Bloomberg Locations: Iran, Hormuz, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh
Ilia Yefimovich/dpa | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesMarkets are in danger of being "whipsawed" by the combination of regional conflict in the Middle East and rising unemployment in the United States, says Stephen Roach, senior fellow at Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center. Most Asian markets fell on Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street overnight, as investors fretted over rising tensions in the Middle East. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate could prompt the Fed to accelerate the easing cycle to achieve a soft landing. The unemployment rate in September is expected to come in at 4.2%, according to data of a Reuters poll on LSEG, unchanged from the August figure. The unemployment rate had jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July, a dramatic rise from the five-decade low of 3.4% in April 2023.watch now
Persons: Ilia Yefimovich, Stephen Roach, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai, Hassan Nasrallah, Roach, CNBC's, Stephen Stanley, Kelvin Tay Organizations: Missiles, Getty, Yale Law, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China Center, Wall, Israel Defense Forces, Santander, Organization of, Petroleum, Energy Information Administration, UBS Global Wealth Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, Traders, U.S, U.S . Federal Locations: Israel, Tel Aviv, Iran, United States, Iranian, Lebanon, U.S .
India's recent stock market surge has investors viewing the country as an emerging market poised for long-term outperformance. The India NSE Nifty 50 Index , the country's domestic stock market benchmark, has soared 18.7% this year, hitting record levels. "The data show that, historically, the Indian market has offered robust returns with reduced volatility." Going back to 2015, INDA has seen bigger annual gains and smaller declines than the broader emerging market fund. How to play the Indian market Financials are among investors' favorite spots in India's booming stock market.
Persons: It's, Malcolm Dorson, Dorson, GlobalX, Russell, , EEM, INDA, Amr Abdel Khalek, Khalek, Jerome Powell, Venugopal Garre, Krishna Mohanraj, You've, Mohanraj Organizations: India NSE, Global, CNBC, U.S, Federal, Fed, Nasdaq, China, MRB Partners, Traders, Barclays, Diamond Hill Capital Management, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI, HDFC, Whitehaven Coal, Prestige Estates Locations: India, China, Dorson, U.S, Whitehaven
Gold and crude oil rallied, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped. On the economic data front, job openings rose unexpectedly in August. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders elected to crowd into safe-haven assets like gold as Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs oil rallied, so did gold and the bond market, with investors piling into risk-off assets.
Persons: , Helima Croft, Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams Organizations: Treasury, Service, Traders, RBC Capital Markets, CNBC, Global, LPL, Labor, Comerica Bank Locations: Israel, Iran, Lebanon
Stocks and bond yields fell on Tuesday amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Crude oil rose more than 3% on speculation that regional conflict will hit production. Gold prices climbed as investors flocked to safe-haven assets. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Organizations: Service, Israel, White, Traders, Treasury, East Locations: Lebanon, Iran, Israel, West Coasts
AdvertisementUS financial firms' interest in China was on its last legs, but a new stimulus package has some investors excited again. The immediate impact of China's $114 billion package, which includes cutting interest rates and reducing the amount of money banks need to keep in reserve, has been big. Traders, investors, and speculators have sent China's stock market to its best month in nearly a decade , signaling that the market players think that Beijing's moves are a "bazooka." Our annual list of Wall Street rising stars is here. According to a new report from The Wall Street Journal, executives attempted to woo the AI researcher back before rescinding the offer.
Persons: , Andres Martinez Casares, Alyssa Powell, Linette Lopez isn't, Linette, Jon Hicks, that's, David Tepper, He's, Tepper, Pan Gongsheng, BI's Filip De Mott, Wall, Natalie Ammari, Crypto, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Marc Piasecki, Tyler Le, who's, OpenAI execs, Ilya Sutskever, it's, Tara Anand, aren't, Jerome Powell, Ryan Routh, El Chapo, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Grace Lett, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Traders, Bank of China, bros, Trump, Getty, Houston Chronicle, Hearst Newspapers, Elon, Wall Street Journal, Netflix, Longshoremen's Association, National Association for Business Locations: China, New York, London, Chicago
Gold, traditionally perceived as a haven, has climbed roughly 30% this year, outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 index’s 20% gain. Fresh consumer confidence data on Tuesday indicated that Americans are feeling pessimistic about the US economy and future of the job market. JPMorgan Chase researchers said in a note on Monday that they expect the yellow metal to continue running toward their 2025 target price of $2,850 an ounce as the Fed brings down rates. Silver, another precious metal that tends to move in tandem with gold, has jumped roughly 34% this year, outperforming the yellow metal. New moves from China to revive its economy also has the potential to lift precious metals, said Rhind.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Kristina Hooper, JPMorgan Chase, “ There’s, Will Rhind, Rhind Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Traders, JPMorgan, Treasury, GraniteShares, Citi Locations: New York, China, Turkey, India, China’s
Investors bought into the interest rate cut. Equity inflows last week were the largest they had been in roughly two years, according to Jill Carey Hall, equity and quant strategist at Bank of America Securities. The Wall Street bank reported its clients snapped up $6.9 billion worth in stocks, the highest level going back to October 2022. XLU YTD mountain Utilities Utilities were the big winner here. On the other hand, investors dumped financials, real estate and energy stocks last week.
Persons: Jill Carey Organizations: Bank of America Securities, Traders, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Utilities Utilities, Bank of, Tech Locations: Bank
Jamie Dimon, Chairman and Chief Executive officer (CEO) of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) speaks to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan in New York City, U.S., April 23, 2024. A year after Jamie Dimon named geopolitics as the world's biggest risk, JPMorgan Chase's CEO sounded the alarm again, warning that the state of global stability has gotten worse. During his visit to India, Dimon said in an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18 released Tuesday: "My caution is all geopolitics, which may determine the state of the economy." "Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. The interview came almost a year after Dimon had called geopolitics, after Russia's invasion in Ukraine, the biggest risk that he sees facing the world, larger than high inflation or a U.S. recession.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Yemen's, I'm Organizations: JPMorgan Chase & Co, Economic, of New, JPMorgan, CNBC, TV18, ., Federal Reserve, Traders Locations: of New York, Manhattan, New York City, U.S, India, Red, Ukraine, Russia
Traders across Wall Street expect the Fed to lower rates, ending the tightening cycle that began in March 2022. That said, investors aren't sure how big the rate reduction will be. To be sure, it closed more than 30 points below the closing all-time high of 5,634.58 set in July. We tend to agree with that, but also think the setup for a 'false breakout' remains high," wrote Krinsky. Elsewhere on Wall Street this morning , Barclays upgraded VF Corp to overweight from equal weight.
Persons: Chris Murphy, Susquehanna, Jonathan Krinsky, It's, Adrienne Yih Organizations: Federal, Traders, Barclays, Corp
U.S. stock futures rose Wednesday night as traders digested the Federal Reserve's earlier decision to lower interest rates by a half percentage point. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 100 points, or 0.2%. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. Both the S&P 500 and 30-stock Dow initially rallied to new record highs right after the Fed announced its interest rate cut decision. "The market was thinking to itself, if you go 50, another 50 has a high likelihood.
Persons: Tom Porcelli, that's, he's, Porcelli, homebuilder Lennar Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Fed, Dow, Darden, FedEx, homebuilder, Traders Locations: U.S
Traders instantly react to the data (sometimes wildly so), especially when the actual numbers are distinctly different than estimates. Thus, historically, XLU has been correlated with the direction of treasury bonds (which move in the opposite direction of bond yields). Here's a chart with XLU and the TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, which we're using since it's the most widely traded treasury bond ETF. From 2022 through 2023, XLU and TLT moved in the same direction more often than not. Another reason is simply that investors are aggressively seeking yield producing instruments, with the understanding that bond yields were destined to fall.
Persons: XLU, That's, TLT, We're Organizations: Federal Reserve, PPI, Utilities, Treasury Bond ETF, Bollinger, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: XLU
Most traders expect the Federal Reserve to front-load easing with a big initial rate cut this week. However, JPMorgan strategist Oksana Aronov says a rate cut "is not necessarily even warranted." AdvertisementThis week, the Federal Reserve is expected to decide on the size of its highly-anticipated rate cut. Yet, one strategist says a rate cut isn't necessary at all given the relative strength of the economy. "I'd say that a cut is not necessarily even warranted, given that we're not really seeing a broad-based weakening outside of a more reasonable labor market," JPMorgan strategist Oksana Aronov said.
Persons: Oksana Aronov, Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Business
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury yield was down by less than one basis point to 3.6194%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis point lower to 3.5506%. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled to begin, with policymakers widely expected to announce an interest rate cut at its conclusion. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week, with an interest rate cut from the central bank all but guaranteed. The key question across markets remains how big the rate cut from the Fed will be on Wednesday.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Bank of England, Bank of Locations: Bank of Japan
Stock futures were flat Monday evening as Wall Street readied for key retail sales data and the start of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, along with futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average . Investors on Tuesday will parse retail sales data for August for one final glimpse into the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the Fed rate decision. The results could affect the rate cut outcome. She is forecasting additional 25 basis point cuts in November and December.
Persons: Biden, Dow, Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Intel, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Fed, CME Group's, September's National Association of Home Builders Housing
The S & P 500 is on the verge of something unexpected — especially for September. The broad market index entered the week less than 1% below a record last reached in July. Krinky isn't the only one on the Street treading carefully with the S & P 500 near record highs. "With the S & P 500 close to our YE 2024 price target again, we remain neutral on the S & P 500 for now," wrote Lori Calvasina, head of global equity research at RBC Capital Markets. "However, after a sharp move lower in 10-year yields, the earnings yield gap for the S & P 500 is starting to head in a more favorable direction for stocks," Calvasina added.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, BTIG, Krinsky, Lori Calvasina, Calvasina, Mark Mahaney Organizations: Traders, Federal, Market Committee, RBC Capital Markets, ISI, of Justice
Stocks in the firm's coverage universe have "significantly front-loaded expected rate cut benefits, well in excess of prior fed cycles," he said. The chances of a smaller 25 basis point cut have fallen to a 41% chance. Barclays analyst Matthew Bouley is watching the data very closely as well and said a lot will depend on how consumers react as mortgage rates fall. Bouley said this is one of the clearest signs yet that a recent decline in mortgage rates is bringing buyers into the market. Slightly more than half the analysts who cover the stock rate it a buy or overweight, it said.
Persons: Mike Dahl, Dahl, Toll, Taylor Morrison, Matthew Bouley, Bouley, Horton Organizations: Federal Reserve, RBC Capital Markets, Tri, Tri Pointe Homes, Toll, RBC, KB, Barclays Locations: Tri Pointe, staving, Horton
Kevin Dietsch | Getty ImagesA flurry of major central banks will hold monetary policy meetings this week, with investors bracing for interest rate moves in either direction. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to join others around the world in starting its own rate-cutting cycle. Elsewhere, Brazil's central bank is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting across Tuesday and Wednesday. Traffic outside the Central Bank of Brazil headquarters in Brasilia, Brazil, on Monday, June 17, 2024. The central bank delivered its first interest rate cut in more than four years at the start of August.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Kevin Dietsch, John Bilton, CNBC's, Bilton, David Volpe, Volpe, 25bps, Wilson Ferrarezi, BOE, Ruben Segura Cayuela Organizations: Federal Reserves, Washington , D.C, Federal, Traders, The Bank of England, Norway's Norges Bank, South Africa's, Bank, Bank of Japan, Morgan Asset Management, European, Bank of England, ECB, Emerald Asset Management, Banco Central, TS Lombard, Central Bank of, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Brazil's, Brazil, Central Bank of Brazil, Brasilia, South Africa, Norway, Japan
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Last Friday, the August employment report showed the number of jobs added was lower than expected but higher than the previous month. Wednesday's CPI report showed the lowest 12-month inflation rate in two-and-a-half years. In short, the data hasn't cleared up whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. They think there's a 57% chance of a 25 point cut and 43% of a 50 point one, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Persons: Stefani Reynolds, We've, Wednesday's, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Sarah Min Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, PPI Locations: Washington ,
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