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☆ The Fed is about to make its next move. Here are 8 quotes from Jerome Powell and other central bankers that point to what comes next.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

After 11 interest rate hikes, Federal Reserve officials appear divided on next steps. Jerome Powell and other central bankers have signaled another rate hike could be on the table. Since the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting, several central bankers have signaled that interest rates could still go higher. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, October 20: "I really do try to keep people focused on what inflation is, still at 3.7%. Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, October 19: "Financial conditions have tightened significantly in recent months, and longer-term bond yields have been an important driving factor in this tightening.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, CME's, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Christopher Waller, Susan Collins Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Market, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Dallas Fed, Governors, Boston Fed

☆ Morning Bid: Bond steamroller flattens all
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. That's all on top of the ongoing rethink of the Fed's long-term rate horizon and increasingly high-pressure economy. Hit from all sides, the Treasury market is simply in ructions - catalysed perhaps by technical, speculative and positioning factors too. Ten-year yields hit a whopping 4.88% early on Wednesday - an increase of 80 basis points in little over a month. And implied volatility in the bond market (.MOVE) hit its highest since May.

Persons: Florence Lo, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, St, Louis Fed, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Mehmet Simsek, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Congress, riven, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Treasury, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, P Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Turkish, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Washington, Asia, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Kansas, London

☆ These stocks could break out to new highs if the Fed is viewed as market-friendly
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Some stocks that were trading near 52-week highs before the Fed decision could now ride the coattails of the latest interest rate decision and move higher. Boston Scientific's previous 52-week high stood at $54.99 . Meanwhile, credit card giant Mastercard is well within striking range of a new 52-week high, with shares only 1.21% away from the benchmark. Some stocks that were trading near 52-week highs before the Fed decision could now ride the coattails of the latest interest rate decision and move higher. Consensus analyst estimates forecast a 10.4% rally to Arch Capital stock.

Persons: yearend, Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Baker Hughes Organizations: Fed, Federal, CNBC, CNBC Pro Stock, Boston Scientific, Boston Scientific's, Boston, Mastercard, Arch Capital, Arch Capital Group, . Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Getty, Capital Group, AIG American International Group, Amphenol, Bunge, Boston Scientific Corp, Design Systems, Everest Group, Emerson Electric Co, HAL Halliburton, ICE, Exchange, Jacobs Solutions, Mckesson, E Corp, Services, Constellation Brands, Targa Resources Corp, Visa Locations: Washington ,

☆ Massive home-price appreciation might be the secret to keeping consumers afloat as savings dry up
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Homeowners' equity is the highest it's been in 25 years, which could provide a cushion as consumer savings dwindle. That trend could be set to continue as the massive accumulation of home equity provides a lifeline that consumers can tap into if things get tough. Bankrate data shows that home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, are currently carrying an average rate close to 7%. Home equity revolving credit balances climbed for the fourth straight quarter leading up to March 2023, which presents another factor that could help sustain consumer spending. Now, real estate accounts for about 25% of total household assets, and despite deteriorating savings, still-rising equity presents a potential path forward for consumers to keep spending, Quinlan and Seery said.

Persons: Tim Quinlan, Shannon Seery, that's, Quinlan, Seery Organizations: Soaring, Service, Homeowners, Federal Reserve Board, Wells Locations: Wells, Wall, Silicon, Wells Fargo

Powell acknowledged as a positive development that inflation has fallen from the highs of last year without serious damage to the economy. "We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year," Powell said. 'MODERATE' GROWTHU.S. Treasury yields slid in choppy trading after the release of the Fed policy statement, while U.S. stocks ended largely unchanged. Futures markets showed little change in bets on the path of Fed rate increases over the remainder of the year, with small odds given to a rise in September. Though Powell said Fed staff had relaxed a prediction of a recession in coming months, outside analysts still think that's what it may take to finish the inflation fight.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Powell, what's, Kathy Bostjancic, nodded, Taylor Swift, he's, Veronica Clark, we're, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Treasury, Nationwide, Citi, Derby, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington , U.S

☆ Morning Bid: ECB to follow Fed hike, Meta surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained equivocal about whether there was one more policy rate rise left this year and said Fed staff were no longer forecasting a recession - but futures markets continue to see a less than 50% chance of another move. Global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) hit their highest since April last year on Thursday, with European stocks up more than 1% ahead of the ECB decision. The euro pushed higher against a softer dollar ahead of the announcement and press conference from ECB chief Christine Lagarde. The yen also firmed as the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its easy policy unchanged on Friday. The euro zone's biggest bank BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), by contrast, beat Q2 estimates and the stock jumped 4%.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Meta, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Christine Lagarde, Willis Towers Watson, Giorgia Meloni, Joe Biden, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Treasury, Boeing, Dow, Wall, ECB, Bank of, Shell, Barclays, BNP, Central Bank, Intel, Ford, Boston Scientific, Myers Squibb, Honeywell, Xcel, Eastman Chemical, Pentair, Mastercard, P Global, Hershey, Digital Realty, Northrop Grumman, Weyerhaeuser, Cincinatti, Verisign, Comcast, Southwest Airlines, HCA, . Federal Reserve Board, Washington Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Exxon, Chevron, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Asia, Hong Kong, China, Abbvie, Bristol, Edison, Kansas, Basel III, Washington

☆ This is 'the end of the beginning' of the battle against inflation, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesCentral banks are at "the end of the beginning" in their battle against inflation, as several factors keep core prices persistently high, according to top Societe Generale economist Kokou Agbo-Bloua. U.S. inflation cooled in May to an annual 4%, its lowest annual rate in more than two years, but core inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 5.3% year-on-year. In assessing the current state of global policymakers' efforts to tame inflation, Agbo-Bloua quoted former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill's remarks in a 1942 speech: "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. He suggested that this has helped to keep the labor market resilient, which will likely extend this lag time.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Kokou Agbo, Bloua, Winston Churchill's, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Getty, Societe Generale, British, CNBC Locations: Washington ,, Ukraine, Agbo

☆ Stock futures climb ahead of a key inflation data week for Wall Street and the kickoff of second-quarter earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the headquarters of the Federal Reserve on June 14, 2023 in Washington, DC. Stock futures ticked up on Sunday evening as investors prepare for a slate of inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday and brace for the start of the second-quarter earnings season. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.01% while S&P 500 futures gained about 0.1%. Stocks are heading into a new week after closing lower on jobs data from ADP and the Labor Department last week. "The reason is negative operating leverage — when cost growth exceeds sales growth, earnings growth takes a steep hit."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Finance behemoths, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Edward Stanley Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Finance, Finance behemoths BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, Citi Locations: Washington , DC, Wells Fargo

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Fed paused rates — and the rally in markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Drew Angerer | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. And if inflation does indeed fall further, Powell suggested the Fed might deviate from its projections and keep rates steady. July's Federal Open Market Committee "will be a live meeting," because "a decision hasn't been made," Powell said. But even if the Fed doesn't hike in July, it's likely to hold rates steady for the rest of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, Gundlach, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel's, Powell, hasn't, there's, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Getty, CNBC Locations: Washington ,

☆ The message top corporate CFOs are sending directly to Fed presidents isn't a bullish one
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Fed remains focused on the labor market and cooling wage growth while raising unemployment as the key to bringing hot services inflation down. "I shared with him [a regional Fed president] that they should stop, not pause," said another CFO on the call. "The consumer is being smart," the CFO said, but the Fed focus on bringing unemployment up can break the consumer. "I gave this message to him [a Fed president]: we can manage through this with unemployment below 4%." CFOs said the labor market remains tight and the wage gains, while slowing, have created a higher wage base which can't be turned back.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, That's, Wall, Randy Kroszner, CFOs, Sara Eisen, Kroszner, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Fed, CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey, Chatham House, Corporations, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Washington ,

☆ Morning Bid: Showdown on the ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With world markets still at an impasse on the extent of the economic slowdown and chance of recession, the U.S. debt ceiling impasse remains unresolved - and Tuesday's showdown at the White House is one of the few opportunities left to resolve it. Biden meets Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the first time since February. There are only six days this month when the House and the Senate are in session when Biden is in Washington. Longer-term Treasury yields remain under wraps, however, with 2-year yields hovering just under 4%. DEBT CEILINGBeyond the debt ceiling row, the picture of the wider economy remains equivocal.

☆ Morning Bid: Apple comforts as payrolls loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Apple upped its dividend and authorized another $90 billion share repurchase program, same as a year ago. Apple's stock has outperformed most of Wall Street in 2023, up 28% year-to-date. After a torrid 2022, that narrow index is up 35% so far this year - far outstripping the Nasdaq 100's (.NDX) 18% gain and accounting for the bulk of the more modest 6% rise in the S&P500 <.S&P500>. And after three hefty daily retreats in a row for the S&P500 this week, futures are up 0.4% ahead of Friday's open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: April boomlet mocks recession script
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanThe signal is still lost in an awful lot of noise. With next week's Big Tech earnings reports hoving into view, the overall U.S. corporate healthcheck remains pretty mixed. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the overall global stock market direction remains equivocal. Although Asia bourses had initially followed Wall St's Thursday swoon, European indexes and S&P500 futures were little changed on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Oil price relapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Although oil prices have not yet reversed all their gains from OPEC move, Brent is down more than 5% over the past week and the year-on-year deflation in oil prices is running at 24%. And there's also signs oil loading from Russia's western ports this month is rising to the highest since 2019 -= despite Moscow's pledge to cut output. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares dropped 2% after the electric-vehicle maker's sixth U.S. price cut this year. Helped by the oil price retreat, 2-year U.S. Treasury yields fell back almost 10 basis points to 4.19%. VIX and bear marketsShare price performance, earnings and sales for TeslaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ Marketmind: Banks to test soft landing thesis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have surged this week on renewed hopes of disinflation, peak interest rates and a soft economic landing - and earnings from Wall Street's biggest banks now test the thesis. Markets will be most focussed on bank guidance on how much the March bank failure will crimp lending going forward. Next month's expected interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve is now expected to be the last and futures see up to 70 basis points of cuts from that point to year-end. And with China's booming trade numbers for last month also suggesting the world economy at large will comfortably skirt recession this year, "soft landing" hopes are back in vogue. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude cut complicates Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Brent crude surged on Monday in response, settling about 5% higher than Friday's close. The mild reaction in the rates and bond markets to the OPEC move reflects some of that. Asia and Europe's main stock indices were steady to higher, with S&P500 futures only marginally in the red ahead of Monday's open. The VIX (.VIX) volatility index was a touch higher, though still below 20, and the dollar (.DXY) was up smartly. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index teetered back on the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction again in March.

☆ Fed's Cook: watching credit conditions in calibrating interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook on Friday said she is watching credit conditions closely and will factor in potential economic headwinds from recent banking sector turmoil as she weighs the right level of interest rates to deal with high and persistent inflation. "On the one hand, if tighter financing conditions restrain the economy, the appropriate path of the federal funds rate may be lower than it would be in their absence," Cook said in remarks prepared for delivery. "On the other hand, if data show continued strength in the economy and slower disinflation, we may have more work to do." The Fed last week lifted the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a 4.75%-5.00% range, and said "some additional policy firming may be appropriate." "I am closely watching developments in the banking sector, which have the potential to tighten credit conditions and counteract some of that momentum," Cook said.

☆ Morning Bid: Brittle banks find a berth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With few fresh weekend developments on the European bank stock rigor late last week, European bourses and bank stocks found a level too. Deutsche Bank, whose stock lurched lower on Friday amid fears about rising bank funding costs, regained about 3% on Monday. Deposits at small banks fell by $120 billion in the week to March 15, while borrowing jumped $253 billion. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline year-on-year inflation rate to have cooled to 7.2% from 8.5% in February. * U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year notes* U.S. corporate earnings: CarnivalReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sought to reassure investors about the soundness of the banking system, saying that the management of Silicon Valley Bank "failed badly," but that the bank's collapse did not indicate wider weaknesses in the banking system. "These are not weaknesses that are running broadly through the banking system," he said, adding that the takeover of Credit Suisse seemed to have been a positive outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee policy statement also said the U.S. banking system is "sound and resilient." The much-anticipated rate cut by the Fed, which had delivered eight previous rate hikes in the past year, sought to balance the risk of rampant inflation with the threat of instability in the banking system. The banking sector has been in turmoil after California regulators on March 10 closed Silicon Valley Bank in the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Fed's policy-setting committee raised interest rates by another quarter of a percentage point in a unanimous decision on Wednesday, lifting its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.75%-5.00% range. Fed officials still feel that "some additional policy firming" may be needed, and they penciled in one more quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate increase by the end of the year. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note , which is highly sensitive to Fed rate expectations, was down more than 21 basis points in the session. Financial markets went a step further, betting that the Fed won't raise rates any further from here and will be reducing them by this summer. "The Fed has been spooked by Silicon Valley Bank and other banking turmoil.

☆ These are our two preferred scenarios for the Fed's big March meeting next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Two things will capture all the market's attention in the coming week: The Federal Reserve's March meeting and the government's ongoing attempt to quell worries about the banking system. If it raises, Powell should speak softly; no raise and Powell should strongly remind the market that the work isn't done. Still, for the week, U.S. stocks fared better, with the S & P 500 rising 1.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 4.5%. On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ended March 11 came in at 192,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the prior week and below the expected 205,000. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Jerome Powell isn't winning any popularity contests among investors as markets booed his testimony on Tuesday
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If you missed Jerome Powell's remarks from his first day on Capitol Hill yesterday, the TLDR is that more rate hikes are coming because the economy's still running hot. The market response to Powell's testimony was anything but muted. The idea is to eventually lower inflation — which most recently clocked in at 6.4% — but the more rate hikes we see, the greater the risk of a recession. So in short: stocks sold off, bond yields jumped, and traders eyed greater potential for a bigger rate hike this month. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said.

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation 'blip' or brave new world?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. Federal Reserve officials wrestled on Thursday with whether recent data showing inflation, jobs and spending all hotter than expected was a flash in the pan. "It could be that progress has stalled, or it is possible that the numbers released last month were a blip," said Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged a "slow and steady" course of policy response. The resilience of stock markets more generally to the week's bond market quake is notable and slightly puzzling - with implied volatility in bonds (.MOVE) climbing sharply while stock market equivalents (.VIX) subside. Two-year U.S. inflation expectations in the Treasury market climbed to 3% from 2% since early last month.

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