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One area looks safe from the dreaded “R” word: the housing market. Goldman predicts home prices will rise even more next year, in part because housing supply is so constrained. Forecasts of a prolonged housing market slump haven’t materialized. Those moves have helped push mortgage rates to a 22-year high. “Home buyers have demonstrated behavior that, in our view, reflects unsustainable adaptations to elevated mortgage rates,” the Goldman Sachs strategists Roger Ashworth and Vinay Viswanathan wrote in a research note.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bankrate, Roger Ashworth, Vinay Viswanathan Organizations: Fed Locations: U.S

☆ US inflation: Multiple rate hikes are still needed, says top Fed official
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —A senior official at the Federal Reserve is pushing back against growing hopes on Wall Street that the central bank could be nearly done raising interest rates. In a pair of speeches on Saturday and on Monday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned that multiple rate hikes could be required to get inflation back to healthy levels. By contrast, many investors and some leading economists have been predicting the Fed will raise interest rates just one more time, or perhaps none. “We expect the decline in core inflation to more than outweigh the mid-year resilience in growth and wage data,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote on Friday. Investors are pricing in a 26% chance of one quarter-point rate hike through the end of the year and just a 2.5% chance of multiple hikes.

Persons: New York CNN —, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Atlanta . Bowman, ”, ” Bowman, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed Locations: New York, Atlanta ., Colorado Springs , Colorado

The source also reiterated that Archer provided no evidence connecting President Joe Biden to any of his son’s foreign business dealings. Goldman said Archer told the panel that Hunter Biden did put his father on speaker phone in the presence of business partners, but that business was never discussed. Devon Archer, a former business associate of Hunter Biden, arrives for closed-door testimony at the O'Neill House Office Building on July 31, 2023 in Washington, DC. Comer then accused Joe Biden of lying about his family’s business dealings and his own involvement – pledging that his panel will continue to investigate. In recent weeks, he delivered his most explicit threat yet to Biden, saying House Republicans’ investigations into the Biden family’s business deals appear to be rising to the level of an impeachment inquiry.

Persons: Devon Archer, Hunter Biden, Archer, Joe Biden, Matthew L, Schwartz, Boies Schiller Flexner, ” Schwartz, “ Mr, Dan Goldman, Goldman, Joe Biden’s, ” Goldman, Biden’s, “, ” Hunter, Drew Angerer, James Comer, Hunter Biden’s, ” Comer, Comer, –, Biden, Ian Sams, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Donald Trump, McCarthy –, Newt Gingrich Organizations: CNN, Republican, Democrats, ”, Democrat, House Republicans, O'Neill, Getty, “, Republicans, House Democrats, Biden, Department, GOP, Congressional, Fox News Locations: Washington, Washington ,, United States

☆ TSMC says skilled worker shortage delays start of Arizona chip production
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

“While the company’s declining revenue and profit were disappointing, its long-term growth prospects remain encouraging,” said Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research. “The short-term frenzy about the AI demand definitely cannot extrapolate for the long term. Still, the company’s earnings of 181.8 billion Taiwan dollars ($5.85 billion) for the quarter ending in June beat forecasts. “We see TSMC well-positioned for a strong growth outlook in 2024,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note. “We expect a solid 2024-onward outlook on the back of its leading position in AI chip manufacturing,” Citi Research analysts said in a note.

Persons: ”, Brady Wang, Mark Liu, ” Liu, ” Goldman Sachs, “ Organizations: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Counterpoint Research, ”, ” Citi Research Locations: Arizona, Taiwan

☆ China cuts loan prime rate as economic recovery fizzles out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy. “The 10 bps rate cut[s] are unlikely to stimulate business confidence and housing demand,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks slid after Tuesday’s rate cuts.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Covid, ”, Ken Cheung, “, ” Goldman Sachs, Fu Linghui Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Shanghai, National Bureau, Statistics, NBS Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing

☆ Debt ceiling deal won’t have much impact on the US economy, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.

Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, ”, Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, “ Locations: Washington, West Virginia

☆ Goldman Says U.S. Is Investigating Its Work for Silicon Valley Bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Emily Flitter | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. authorities are investigating the work Goldman Sachs did for Silicon Valley Bank in the weeks before it failed, including its advice that the smaller lender sell a large portfolio of securities at a loss, according to a regulatory filing by Goldman on Thursday. Goldman said it was “cooperating with and providing information to various governmental bodies in connection with their investigations and inquiries” into Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed suddenly on March 10, touching off a crisis of confidence that has led to the failure of two more regional lenders, and a panic in the stock market over the fate of others. Investment bankers at Goldman advised Silicon Valley Bank’s leaders to sell a $21 billion portfolio of U.S. government debt whose value had been greatly diminished by rising interest rates. Silicon Valley Bank did so in a matter of hours, then revealed it had taken a $1.8 billion loss on the move. Goldman also tried to arrange the sale of Silicon Valley Bank’s stock.

☆ China's May Day holiday spending exceeds pre-pandemic levels for the first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —Holiday spending during China’s Golden Week has surged past pre-pandemic levels for the first time in three years, in a sign the country’s travelers have fully emerged from the depths of Covid-related restrictions and are eager to live large to make up for lost time. Alipay, the country’s biggest digital payment app, reported a 200% increase in online holiday spending from a year earlier. “The fact that domestic tourism spending is now back to 2019 levels suggests that the reopening boost to consumer spending has largely run its course,” said Capital Economics analysts in a Thursday report. “The swift recovery in in-person services has been the major driver of China’s post-Covid recovery this year,” they said. However, “the lackluster property recovery, a global slowdown and rising geopolitical conflict remain major challenges for China’s recovery to be sustained.”

☆ A drug company abandoned a treatment for ‘bubble boy disease.’ After a 5-year fight, this little girl is about to get it
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Elizabeth Cohen Lauren Mascarenhas | Elizabeth Cohen | Lauren Mascarenhas | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +29 min

The Sulacks weighed their options: Have a transplant with a match that was less than ideal – far less – or wait for gene therapy to become available. The news release didn’t say anything else about the SCID gene therapy. Or was the company abandoning its plans for SCID gene therapy altogether? In February, 2021, the parents of more than 20 children who were waiting for the gene therapy treatment, including the Sulacks, wrote a letter to Gaspar. Insurance companies have sometimes balked at paying for gene therapy, which is typically given in one treatment.

☆ Bored Ape NFT creators win case against copycat artist
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Elle Reeve | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Crypto company Yuga Labs has won its claims of trademark infringement against artist Ryder Ripps who copied their NFTs in what he called a protest of their racially offensive imagery. Ripps told CNN he would appeal. But critics commented on social media that some of the Bored Apes contained what looked like references to posts on the website 4chan, which has become a hub of extremism, and pointed out that apes are an old trope in racist imagery. “Once the court adopted the plaintiff’s framing of the case, it was clear what was going to happen: the plaintiff wins everything basically,” he said. “There was an underlying really important point that the defendants are trying to make about the possibility that there was some kind of Nazi glorification in the overall collection NFT collection for the Bored Ape Yacht Club,” Goldman said.

☆ China's State Council shakeup aims to counter rising US tech restrictions and financial risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“These proposed institutional changes reflect key focus areas of Chinese policymakers in the next few years, namely improving financial regulation coordination to enhance financial stability,” Goldman Sachs analysts said on Wednesday. Among the changes announced Tuesday during the annual gathering of the National People’s Congress, Beijing will set up a new powerful financial regulator: the National Financial Regulatory Administration (NFRA). VCG/Getty ImagesA super regulatorChina’s financial system has traditionally been jointly overseen by the People’s Bank of China, the CBIRC and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The new regulator is meant to “better manage risks” in the financial system and strengthen the supervision of “institutions, behaviors, and functions,” the government proposal said. The move comes as risks to the stability of China’s financial system are rising amid a housing market slump and economic slowdown.

☆ Goldman slams into unwelcome sort of volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The similarities between Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) are drawing attention to what makes them different. Investment banking fees halved year-on-year for each, though Goldman generated roughly 50% more from deal advice and underwriting stocks and bonds than its archrival. During the decade before he took over, Goldman traded at a premium to Morgan Stanley. Separately, rival Morgan Stanley reported earnings per share of $1.26 for the same three-month period, 37% less than for the same span in 2021, and slightly higher than analysts’ forecasts, according to Refinitiv. Goldman reported a $2 billion full-year loss for its new “platform solutions” division, which includes the credit card it offers alongside iPhone maker Apple.

COVINGTON, Ky. — A key part of the White House plan to combat the new House GOP majority was on vivid display Wednesday: President Joe Biden talked about bridges and bipartisanship, while Republicans bickered among themselves. They plan to show him addressing real-world problems that are Americans' top concern while painting congressional Republicans as being focused on raw politics. They are refining plans to pressure House Republicans in swing districts to stop any impeachment votes in committee — before the issue reaches the House floor. The general view inside the White House is that there is little of substance to worry about. There, Barack Obama challenged McConnell and congressional Republicans to “help us rebuild this bridge!” and put unemployed construction workers to work.

☆ Tesla shares tumble following deliveries report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Ashley Capoot | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +3 min

Shares of Tesla dropped 13% on Tuesday morning, a day after the electric auto maker reported fourth-quarter vehicle production and delivery numbers for 2022. The company reported 405,278 total deliveries for the quarter and 1.31 million total deliveries for the year. According to a consensus of analysts’ estimates compiled by FactSet, as of Dec. 31, 2022, Wall Street was expecting Tesla to report around 427,000 deliveries for the final quarter of the year. Those more recent estimates were in line with a company-compiled consensus distributed by Tesla investor relations Vice President Martin Viecha. Some Wall Street analysts think Tesla’s deliveries miss spells trouble for the electric vehicle maker, but others see a buying opportunity for the company in 2023.

☆ U.S banks warn of recession risk, inflation hurting consumers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The biggest U.S. banks are bracing for a worsening economy next year as inflation threatens consumer demand, according to executives Tuesday. "Those things might very well derail the economy and cause this mild to hard recession that people are worried about," he said. "Economic growth is slowing,” Goldman Sachs' chief executive David Solomon said. In banking, the job market remains "surprisingly tight" and competition for talent is "as tough as ever," he said. Reporting by Lananh Nguyen and Saeed Azhar in New York and Noor Zainab Hussain in Bengaluru; Editing by Lananh Nguyen and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Premarket stocks: The last time the US faced a debt fight this bad it lost its AAA rating
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In a note on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the upcoming debt limit battle in Washington could spark the most uncertainty since the disruptive 2011 debates that cost America its perfect AAA credit score and caused chaos on Wall Street. “To raise the debt limit next year, bipartisan support will be necessary but hard to achieve,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that the political environment has “echoes of 1995 and 2011” — two very tense standoffs over the debt limit that hurt Main Street and Wall Street. Pain ahead: “It seems likely that uncertainty over the debt limit in 2023 could lead to substantial volatility in financial markets,” wrote Goldman analysts. “A failure to make timely payments would likely hit consumer confidence hard,” Goldman Sachs wrote.

☆ The looming debt ceiling fight could be the messiest since 2011, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

“To raise the debt limit next year, bipartisan support will be necessary but hard to achieve,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in the report. Republican Senator John Thune of South Dakota told Bloomberg last week the debt ceiling could be a way to push through budget cuts. Goldman Sachs noted that the political environment next year will have “echoes of 1995 and 2011” — the two most tense standoffs over the debt limit in recent history. The good news is Washington appears to have plenty of time to reach a compromise on the debt ceiling before things get dicey. “Funds could run dry as soon as July and as late as October,” Goldman Sachs said.

☆ China eases Covid rules, shortening quarantine for inbound travelers
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

BEIJING — China on Friday eased some of its draconian Covid rules, including shortening quarantines by two days for close contacts of infected people and for inbound travelers, and removing a penalty for airlines for bringing in too many cases. Under the new rules, centralized quarantine times for close contacts and travelers from abroad were shortened from seven days to five days. The requirement for three further days in home isolation after centralized quarantine remains. Inbound passengers are transported by bus to their quarantine hotels after arriving at Pudong International Airport in Shanghai in January. “This meeting further illustrates policymakers have started to focus more on optimizing the Covid control policies,” Goldman Sachs said in a note following Thursday’s Politburo Standing Committee meeting but before Friday’s announcement.

☆ A recession in the US is not a slam dunk, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —While investors, business leaders and some economic models continue to warn a recession is imminent, Wall Street’s most powerful investment bank remains cautiously optimistic. Goldman Sachs told clients on Monday it still sees a 35% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months. “We still see a very plausible non-recessionary four-step path from the high-inflation economy of the present to a low-inflation economy of the future,” Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a report. In other words, a recession is not a slam dunk. Goldman Sachs concedes that there has been “much less progress” on the price side.

☆ The risk of an accidental recession is rising, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN Business —Goldman Sachs is urging the Federal Reserve to be patient in its quest to squash inflation. Goldman Sachs is cautioning the Fed against overdoing it. The warning from Goldman Sachs comes as recession predictions continue to pile up. By contrast, Goldman Sachs is stressing that a downturn is hardly a foregone conclusion. “The US economy is growing well below its long-term potential rate but does not appear to be on the brink of recession at the moment,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote.

☆ Xi Jinping's Party Congress speech: yes to zero-Covid, no to market reforms?
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Priorities presented at the political gathering of more than 2,000 party members will also set China’s trajectory for the next five years or even longer. In his speech Sunday, Xi struck a confident tone, highlighting China’s growing strength and rising influence under his first decade in power. China's President Xi Jinping speaks during the opening session of the 20th Chinese Communist Party's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on October 16, 2022. And China’s economy is in bad shape. Meantime, a comparison between this year’s speech and the last one delivered by Xi in 2017 at the 19th party congress revealed a potentially worrying trend.

☆ China’s yuan hovers near record lows against the dollar despite central bank warning
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN Business —China’s yuan hovered near record lows against the US dollar on the offshore market on Thursday, as major currencies around the world continue to tumble after the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hikes. The yuan — also known as the renminbi —has been declining for months despite interventions by China’s central bank. The fall comes despite People’s Bank of China warning traders on Wednesday not to bet on the currency’s continued depreciation. Vendors exchange Chinese yuan notes at a store on Sunday, July 17, 2022, in Beijing. Ng Han Guan/APThe PBOC, meanwhile, has urged traders not to “keep gambling.”“The foreign exchange market is a big deal.

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