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Not everyone is convinced the US will avoid a recession
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN —The case for no US recession is building, but some on Wall Street are cautioning against getting overconfident. That has raised hopes among investors that the United States could avoid a recession despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive pace of interest rate hikes. Still, some investors are maintaining that the US economy could tip into a recession later this year. The index of leading economic indicators is just kind of at an extreme rating. One of the reasons for the rise in equity valuations in recent weeks was the pricing out of recession or economic weakness.
Persons: Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli, , Bell, David Donabedian, we’ve, There’s, Catherine Thorbecke, Danielle Romain, Romain, Read, Uno Mattel, Uno Quatro, Ellie Stevens, “ We’re, Ray Adler Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase’s, CIBC Private Wealth, Fitch, Google, Trust, Mattel, Uno Locations: New York, United States, New York City
But markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report Friday morning. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.
Persons: Minneapolis CNN — Fitch, , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, ” Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Business, Conference Board, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, Labor Department, , PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
Minneapolis CNN —Despite Tuesday’s credit rating downgrade amid concerns about the challenges facing the United States, markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report on Friday. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the monthly jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady. The broader economic scorecard for the United States makes the downgrade all the more “bizarre” and puzzling, noted top economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Persons: , Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States
That special fee, which the FDIC proposed in May, would be assessed based on their uninsured deposits at the end of 2022. The regulator said some banks were "not reporting estimated uninsured deposits in accordance with the instructions." A July 6 report by S&P Global noted 55 banks restated their fourth-quarter uninsured deposits in FDIC reports, more than twice the norm. Specifically, the FDIC reminded banks they must report uninsured deposits backed by pledged assets as well as uninsured deposits held at their own subsidiaries. “Earlier this year, we identified certain internal or intra-bank accounts that shouldn’t have been reported,” Bank of America spokesman Bill Halldin said.
Persons: Zions, Paul Burdiss, Bill Halldin, Bank spokespeople, Niket, Pete Schroeder, Tatiana Bauzer, Shweta Agarwal, Megan Davies Organizations: U.S, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Valley Bank, FDIC, P Global, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, P, Huntington National Bank, Bank, Bank Policy Institute, Thomson Locations: Bengaluru, Washington
Even though inflation is slowing in many countries after more than a year of interest rate hikes, it remains above the 2% level many central banks are targeting. Raising interest rates is the primary tool central bankers have at their disposal to get inflation down. That’s why the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes at its June meeting after 10 consecutive hikes since last March. It’s harder for central banks to clamp down on inflation when it becomes sticky, or persistently high. That’s because research shows that inflation, if unaddressed, could become even more sticky and harder for central banks to control with rate hikes.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, don’t, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, it’s, Michael Bordo, , Organizations: New, New York CNN, ” Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Center for Monetary, Rutgers University, CNN Locations: New York
London CNN —The Bank of England raised interest rates by half a percentage point Thursday, after data this week revealed surprisingly stubborn inflation. Many mortgage holders due to refinance their loans this year and next bought their homes when interest rates were much lower and mortgage rates were closer to 1% or 2%. Capital Economics is forecasting a 12% decline in house prices between their August 2022 peak and 2024. If interest rates must stay higher for longer to tame inflation, house prices could fall more sharply. “If mortgage rates were to stay at 6% for several years, a house price fall of 25% would be likely,” Wishart said.
Persons: we’ve, Andrew Bailey, , Jake Berry, Rishi Sunak, ” Simon Pittaway, Tom Bill, Knight Frank, Bill, Banks, ” Bill, , There’s, Andrew Wishart, ” Wishart Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, ” Bank of England, ” Financial, , Institute for Fiscal Studies, UK Finance, CNN, Savings, Capital Economics Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Europe,
New York CNN —The Dow surged over 700 points mid-afternoon Friday as investors applauded Congress’s passage of the debt ceiling deal and celebrated a cheerful jobs report. The blue-chip index soared 734 points, or 2.2%, putting it on track for the best daily gain since November 2022. A mixed May jobs report also helped boost stocks. “The May jobs report is a particularly difficult one for the Fed to parse,” Bank of America economists wrote in a Friday note. “We think the May jobs report is just soft enough to justify a hold.”
Persons: , , Keith Lerner Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Senate, Advisory Services . Futures, ” Bank of America Locations: New York, United States
President Dimon would be square peg in Oval hole
  + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, June 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The idea of Jamie Dimon running for U.S. president makes sense in one way: After helming JPMorgan (JPM.N), the biggest bank in the Western world, there aren’t many bigger jobs. There are big reasons, however, why Dimon would be a square peg in an Oval Office. If part of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s appeal rested on empty claims of business savvy, Dimon is the real deal. Trump’s financial failings and Epstein connections didn’t stick, but Dimon probably won’t want to test voters again. Follow @johnsfoley on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSBillionaire fund manager Bill Ackman tweeted on May 31 that JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon should run for president in the 2024 elections.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Bill Ackman, Donald Trump’s, Aubrey Immelman, There’s, Jobs, Jeffrey Epstein, Epstein, Dimon, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Sharon Lam Organizations: YORK, Reuters, U.S, JPMorgan, ” Banking, Congress, Bloomberg, Trump, Florida, Republican, Thomson
Food inflation dipped slightly to 15.4% in May, but that’s still the second-highest rate on record. But chocolate and coffee prices are rising as global commodity prices soar, British Retail Consortium CEO Helen Dickinson said. Price controls anyone? “The current food price shock does not warrant such an intervention,” he added. Brexit is responsible for about a third of UK food price inflation since 2019, according to researchers at the London School of Economics.
FILE PHOTO: New Zealand's finance minister, Grant Robertson, speaks about the "wellbeing" budget in Wellington, New Zealand, May 30, 2019. That has heaped pressure on New Zealand’s finances, as the government has had to navigate many challenges including three-decade high inflation, sharply rising borrowing costs, a stuttering economy and falling tax revenue. However, Treasury sees inflation slowing to 3.3% by mid-2024, from the current blistering 6.7% pace, levels not seen since the early 1990s. Much of the worsening in the accounts is due to falling tax revenue as the economy slows. S&P Global Ratings retained New Zealand’s AAA ratings, but warned of pressure ahead.
Minneapolis CNN —The number of first-time claims for weekly jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000, down 22,000 from 264,000 the week before, according to data published Thursday by the Department of Labor. Continuing claims, which are filed by people who have received jobless benefits for more than one week, dipped to 1.799 million for the week ended May 6 from a revised 1.807 million the week prior. The outsized influence of Massachusetts’ claims was an anomaly, BofA economists wrote, noting that the state’s total employment accounts for under 3% of overall US employment, and its initial jobless claims are typically under 3% of all weekly US claims. When excluding and recalculating filings in Massachusetts, initial claims have instead moved “sideways,” pointing to limited layoffs, economists Stephen Juneau and Michael Gapen wrote. Weekly jobless claims remain below historical averages: In the decade before the pandemic, weekly claims averaged 311,000.
What every consumer should know about bank failures
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
New York CNN —Let’s be frank: If you have a US bank account, hearing about bank failures in the past couple of months hasn’t felt great. Here’s what you need to know to keep things in perspective despite the recent closures of First Republic, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. How do I know my money is safe? How can I know if my bank will fail? The FDIC will issue information within a day or so of taking over a failed bank to let the bank’s customers know what steps if any they need to take and when.
New York CNN —There’s been a seismic shift in investor perspective: Bad news is no longer good news. Markets teetered after a slew of economic reports signaled that the red-hot labor market is finally cooling (more on that later), flashing warning signals across Wall Street. Now that Wall Street is in “bad news is bad news and good news is good news” mode, it will be looking for signs that the economy remains resilient. President Joe Biden said in a statement Friday that the March data is “a good jobs report for hard-working Americans.”The March jobs report revealed that US employers added a lower-than-expected 236,000 jobs last month. The jobs report was also the first one in 12 months that came in below expectations.
[1/3] Seized drugs are seen following an investigation on drugs cartels operating in Italy increasingly using shadow networks of unlicensed Chinese money brokers to launder their proceeds in this handout photo obtained by Reuters on April 4, 2023. Carabinieri/Handout via REUTERSMILAN, April 6 (Reuters) - Drugs cartels operating in Italy are increasingly using shadow networks of unlicensed Chinese money brokers to conceal cross-border payments, according to Italian judicial and law enforcement authorities. U.S. authorities have said Chinese “money brokers” represent one of the most worrisome new threats in their war on drugs, as a Reuters investigation in 2020 found. Chinese authorities have previously vowed to crackdown on underground banking. One of the first probes to come to light involving use of Chinese money brokers by Italian mobsters was linked to the Calabrian ‘Ndrangheta group, one of the largest crime gangs in the world.
“I have argued for years that the biggest banks in the world are still too big to fail. In practice, however, the economic damage would be considerable.”Keller-Sutter was at the center of a government-orchestrated rescue of Credit Suisse by its larger rival UBS (UBS) earlier this month. Global standards for dealing with teetering “too big to fail” banks were key a part of the package of rules introduced after the global financial crisis. They were designed to make it possible to wind down a big bank without destabilizing the financial system or exposing taxpayers to the risk of losses. The rest is lent out at higher interest rates or invested, because that’s how big banks make most of their profit.
“I have argued for years that the biggest banks in the world are still too big to fail. In practice, however, the economic damage would be considerable.”Keller-Sutter was at the center of a government-orchestrated rescue of Credit Suisse by its larger rival UBS (UBS) earlier this month. They were designed to make it possible to wind down a big bank without destabilizing the financial system or exposing taxpayers to the risk of losses. Although some investors in Credit Suisse bonds lost everything, Swiss taxpayers are still on the hook for up to 9 billion Swiss francs ($9.8 billion) of potential losses arising from certain Credit Suisse assets. The rest is lent out at higher interest rates or invested, because that’s how big banks make most of their profit.
WASHINGTON, March 26 (Reuters) - Recent stress in the banking sector and the possibility of a follow-on credit crunch brings the U.S. closer to recession, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said Sunday in comments to CBS show Face the Nation. "It definitely brings us closer," Kashkari said. "What's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit crunch. "At the same time," he continued, "we've seen that capital markets have largely been closed for the past two weeks. The Fed has rolled out an emergency lending program meant to keep other regional lenders from trouble should deposit withdrawals increase.
A sign of Credit Suisse pictured behind a sign of UBS in Zurich on March 18, 2023. The Swiss government said Tuesday it had ordered Credit Suisse to temporarily suspend the payment of some bonuses, including share awards, to bank staff. Credit Suisse is the first “global systemically important” bank to be rescued since 2008. Yet despite its importance to the financial system, most analysts are not expecting Credit Suisse’s demise to mark the beginning of another global financial crisis. “It’s possible that a vicious circle develops, in which credit tightens, the real economy deteriorates, and default rates start to rise,” he said.
WASHINGTON—For 15 years, regulators and legislators have assumed the biggest risks to the financial system came from a handful of “too big to fail” banks. This month’s failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank—and last week’s bank-led rescue of a third lender, First Republic Bank —suggests that focus on size may have blinded officials to the threat posed by smaller lenders, observers and former regulators say.
The CEO of Bank of America (BAC), America’s second-largest bank, told CNN he hopes lawmakers resolve their issues, because the market and economy love stability. “We have to be prepared for that, not only in this country but in other countries around the world,” Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan told Poppy Harlow on “CNN This Morning” Monday. Yellen subsequently said there could be a “global financial crisis” if there is no debt limit agreement. Extremely low,” Moynihan told Harlow. He told Harlow that given China’s importance in the global supply chain, it’s in everyone’s interests to not have any economic tensions escalate.
Bank earnings become a post-Covid parlor game
  + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Chief among the mysteries is how much interest banks will harvest in 2023 and beyond. Even then, the link between benchmark interest rates and the rate banks actually charge is getting harder to forecast. Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan said that depositors who used to have roughly $3,500 with the bank now have almost four times more. Goldman just laid off 6% of its workforce, but it remains bigger than it was in 2019; Bank of America says it’s still hiring. To that end, the fog is arguably less troublesome for Goldman and Morgan Stanley than it is for JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citigroup (C.N).
Though in far different fields, men like Ye (formerly known as Kanye West), Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Johnny Depp and Sam Bankman-Fried will forever be linked by this ignominious characteristic. Over the past 12 interminable months, America has witnessed the rantings of Hitler-loving Ye; Musk’s edgelord trolling on his new plaything, Twitter; Depp and his toxic TikTok fanboys; and Trump being Trump on any given day. While seemingly not vain like Ye or Depp or openly thuggish like Trump and Musk, he nonetheless exhibits traits that point to something sinister behind the “just-a-regular-dude” persona. Trump seems to be losing ground, and Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee finally took down their “Kanye. Musk asked Twitter users whether he should step down as CEO, and they voted “yes.”Unfortunately, until we address roots causes, there will always be another blustering bully, another Trump, another Ye.
King Charles III banknote images revealed for first time
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Lauren Kent | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
London CNN Business —The first images of banknotes featuring Britain’s King Charles III were unveiled on Tuesday by the Bank of England. Charles’ portrait will appear on English notes of £5, £10, £20 and £50. Image of King Charles III on the English £50 note. “This is a significant moment, as The King is only the second monarch to feature on our banknotes,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said ahead of the release. Earlier this month, the first coins bearing the official effigy of King Charles III entered circulation.
On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.
Hong Kong CNN —Investors withdrew as much as $3 billion from Binance on Tuesday, according to blockchain analytics firm Nansen, as a deluge of negative headlines about the cryptocurrency industry rattled users of the world’s largest exchange. Andrew Thurman, content lead for Nansen, told CNN that at its peak, Binance saw “as high as $3 billion in net outflows” over a 24-hour period. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao said that the exchange had at one point seen “some withdrawals” of roughly $1.1 billion. The founder of Binance’s one-time competitor, Sam Bankman-Fried, was arrested in the Bahamas this week after US prosecutors filed criminal charges against him. On Tuesday, Bankman-Fried was indicted in the United States on eight criminal charges including wire fraud and conspiracy.
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