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When official interest rates rise, so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds, known as yields. In the United Kingdom, the yield on 30-year bonds also reached 5% this week, the highest level in more than two decades. Yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds hit 5% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2012, when that crisis was in full swing. Mortgage rates riseThe yields on local government bonds are usually used by banks to price mortgages. High official interest rates in America and Europe have also raised the cost of borrowing for businesses.
Persons: Saul Loeb, Liz Truss, , Matt Cardy, Freddie Mac, Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley, Stocks, ” Russ Mould, AJ Bell, we’ve, , , That’s, ” Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown Organizations: London CNN, US Treasury Department, Getty, UK, CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Hargreaves Locations: Washington ,, United Kingdom, Bath, England, United States, Europe, America
London CNN —London’s office market has plunged into a “rental recession,” with the share of empty space hitting its highest level in three decades, investment bank Jefferies said in a note Wednesday. Packing upOn Monday, British Land said Meta had agreed to pay £149 million ($181 million) to break its lease on a 310,000-square-foot office near London’s Regent’s Park. More bankers are reportedly leaving the area as UBS (UBS) begins relocating staff working for Credit Suisse to its main London office in the City. Regulators have been watching the commercial real estate market closely for any sign that spiraling vacancy rates and falling rents could become the source of the next financial crisis. The downturn in office rentals stands in stark contrast to London’s residential rental market where demand is high and supply chronically low.
Persons: London CNN —, Jefferies, Michael Prew, Meta, Clifford Chance, Banks Organizations: London CNN, The, City of, Jefferies, CNN, Derwent London, , HSBC, UBS, Credit Suisse, City . Credit Suisse, Regulators, Investment, Hamptons Locations: The New York, City, City of London, London, Canary Wharf, London’s, Canary
Some believe a tight oil market and resilient U.S. growth will keep energy stocks rising for the rest of 2023. Bullish investors argue that energy stocks are still cheap by historical standards - and far less richly valued than other areas of the market. The energy sector currently trades at a forward price to earnings ratio of 12.2, well below its historical median forward P/E of 15.3, according to LSEG Datastream. Parts of the market appear skeptical energy stocks have much further to run. "That should result in a ... smoother ride for energy stocks than we’ve been accustomed to."
Persons: Bing Guan, LSEG, Charles Lemonides, Baker Hughes, Savita Subramanian, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Rodney Clayton, we’ve, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Exxon, Mobil, REUTERS, Energy, West Texas, Federal, drillers, U.S . Energy, Administration, Global, Citi, Brent, SEB Research, Macquarie, Duff, Phelps Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Beaumont , Texas, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China
Hong Kong CNN —Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo says the US government has no evidence that Huawei can produce smartphones with advanced chips “at scale,” as it continues to investigate how the sanctioned Chinese manufacturer made an apparent breakthrough with its latest flagship device. On Tuesday, Raimondo told US lawmakers that she was “upset” by news of the launch of Huawei’s Mate 60 Pro during her visit to China last month. “The only good news, if there is any, is we don’t have any evidence that they can manufacture 7-nanometer [chips] at scale,” she told a US House of Representatives hearing. That surprised many because SMIC, a partially state-owned Chinese company, has also been subject to US export restrictions for years. The following year, the US government expanded on those curbs by seeking to cut Huawei off from chip suppliers that use US technology.
Persons: Gina Raimondo, Raimondo, China’s, TechInsights, Ivan Lam, Kevin Frayer, Toby Zhu, Zhu, Lam, — Rashard Rose, Mengchen Zhang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Huawei, Kirin, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, CNN, SK Hynix, Huawei ”, Research, IT, Eurasia Group Locations: China, Hong Kong, Korean, Beijing, Shenzhen, Apple’s
New York CNN —Oil prices could climb well into triple-digit territory by next year if Russia and Saudi Arabia don’t unwind their aggressive supply cuts, Goldman Sachs warned its clients. Goldman Sachs had forecast Brent oil to be $86 in December and $93 at the end of 2024. First, Goldman Sachs expects Saudi oil supply to be 500,000 barrels per day smaller than previously anticipated. Secondly, Goldman Sachs warned that some of its assumptions for oil production may be incorrect if the OPEC+ cut extensions continue. In that scenario, Brent oil prices would likely climb to $107 a barrel in December 2024, the bank said.
Persons: Saudi Arabia don’t, Goldman Sachs, Brent, don’t, Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden, ” Sullivan Organizations: New, New York CNN, Brent, Saudi, Goldman, US National Security Locations: New York, Russia, Saudi Arabia, North, OPEC, Saudi
The deal was significant, as it was the first debt extension the firm has secured since its liquidity crisis became public last month. According to the agreement with creditors, which was reported by multiple state-owned media outlets on Saturday, Country Garden will now be able to stretch its payment of the outstanding principal of $540 million into 2026. This particular bond had the largest outstanding balance that the company needed to pay out among its onshore debt in the coming year, they added. Country Garden, which was China’s largest residential developer by sales last year, is battling a cash crunch. It has about 31 billion yuan ($4.3 billion) in bonds set to mature through the end of 2024, according to Moody’s.
Persons: hasn’t, , Yeap Jun Rong Organizations: Hong Kong CNN — Investors, CNN, China Overseas, Southern Media Group, Huatai Securities, IG Locations: China, Hong Kong
Beijing hit back Monday by playing a trump card: It imposed export controls on two strategic raw materials, gallium and germanium, that are critical to the global chipmaking industry. Last October, the Biden administration unveiled a set of export controls banning Chinese companies from buying advanced chips and chip-making equipment without a license. Beyond China, Australian rare earths producers also advanced, as investors expected Beijing might extend export curbs to that group of strategically important minerals. “If this action doesn’t change the US-China dynamics, more rare earth export controls should be expected,” Jefferies analysts said. China cut its rare earths export quota in 2010 amid tensions with the United States.
Persons: , Biden, China’s, Janet Yellen, Jefferies, ” Jefferies, CNN’s Hanna Ziady, Xiaofei Xu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Jefferies, Micron Technology, Micron, China, Geological Survey, Eurasia Group, Group, United, Analysts Locations: Hong Kong, China, United States, Beijing, Washington, Netherlands, Japan, Australian, States, United Kingdom, Germany, Belgium
London CNN —Saudi Arabia and Russia announced Monday that they would make additional cuts to oil supply as a global economic slowdown hangs over the outlook for energy demand. Saudi Arabia — the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil — said it would extend a cut of 1 million barrels a day in its oil production at least until the end of August. The cut, which took effect on Saturday, was initially planned to last for the month of July in an attempt to shore up oil prices. The announcements sent prices for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, up 0.7% to trade at $76 a barrel at 7.15 a.m. Taken together, the cuts will reduce Saudi Arabia’s total oil output to nine million barrels per day.
Persons: Alexander Novak, Brent, Organizations: London CNN, Reuters, Brent, International Monetary Fund, Organization of, Petroleum, OPEC, Saudi Press Agency, Ministry of Energy, Saudi, P Global Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, OPEC, Riyadh
With two days left in the first half, the S&P 500 (.SPX) is up 14% in 2023 - a rebound that surprised many analysts after equities’ brutal 2022 decline. If history is a guide, stocks’ strong start may give them a tailwind in the second half. Here are six key questions investors are posing as they assess the market's prospects:WHERE’S THAT RECESSION? While the S&P 500 has gained 14% this year, the equal-weight version of the index -- a proxy for the average stock -- has gained just 4.2%. The S&P 500 tech sector (.SPLRCT) now trades at 27 times forward earnings, according to Refinitiv Datastream.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Refinitiv, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: YORK, Nasdaq, New York Federal Reserve, Treasury, UBS, CAN, Apple Inc, Nvidia Corp, HSBC, Reuters Graphics, Advisory Services, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon
Periods of extreme heat stress the grid by spiking demand for electricity as families and businesses crank up the air conditioning to stay cool. Power grid officials have warned that large swaths of the United States could face blackouts if it’s a hot summer. “Two-thirds of North America is at risk of energy shortfalls this summer during periods of extreme demand,” the North American Energy Reliability Corporation (NERC) concluded in its summer outlook published last month. The risk of blackouts comes into play only if there is extreme heat. But many Americans in the South and Central regions of the United States are dealing with extreme heat right now.
Persons: NERC, ” NERC Organizations: New York CNN Business, North American Energy Reliability Corporation, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, US Energy Information Administration Locations: United States, North America, Mississippi, Central, Texas . New England, Ontario, , South, Arizona, Alabama, West Texas, Pacific Northwest, Southwest , Texas, Southeast, Texas, Nevada , Utah, Gulf Coast
Hong Kong/London CNN —Oil prices edged higher, while global stocks and the ruble fell early Monday as investors reacted to the weekend’s brief and chaotic insurrection in Russia. Markets were largely focused on whether the turmoil in Moscow could disrupt global energy supplies. US crude oil futures briefly climbed 1.3% during Asian trading hours. Signs that global energy demand could weaken as economies slow have pushed US crude prices down by nearly 14% so far this year to just under $70 a barrel. Stocks slip, ruble slidesReacting to the short-lived Wagner insurrection, the Russian ruble opened at its lowest level in nearly 15 months.
Persons: Brent, Vladimir Putin, Antony Blinken, , Yeap Jun Rong, Wagner, Jeffries, Jerome Powell Organizations: London CNN, Rystad Energy, Wagner Group, IG Group, Brent, Russian, Japan’s Nikkei, Bank of England, Bank of Japan Locations: Hong Kong, London, Russia, Moscow, Asia, Shanghai
New AI technology at the drive-thru at a Carl's Jr. location. In real-world situations, reactions to AI drive-thrus are still mixed. “We expect AI to augment the competitive advantages of restaurants with digital culture.”Short-staffed restaurants may see AI as a way to fill in the gaps. “There aren’t enough at-scale examples of voice AI in action, especially in this use case,” to say that people would prefer AI to an employee, said McAllister. By the time those examples exist, AI in drive-thrus may already be the norm.
Persons: CKE, Carl’s Jr, Wendy’s, Joel Angel Juarez, it’s, ” Thomas Kurian, , Christina McAllister, Forrester, upsells, Krishna Gupta, Presto, , Todd Penegor, Penegor, Yong Suk Lee, “ it’s, Brandon Bell, McAllister Organizations: New, New York CNN, Google, USA, Wall Street, Indiana White, Wall Street Journal, Presto Automation, CKE, Presto, Presto Voice, University of Notre Dame, Intouch Locations: New York, White, Wendy’s, Columbus , Ohio, The Republic
[1/2] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. They expect the Fed to raise its target rate to 5.25%-5.5% at the July 25-26 meeting. And it's quite likely that if the Fed does hold off on rates it will prep markets for action later on. The last Fed forecasts released at the March meeting had penciled in a 5.1% stopping point for the federal funds rate target, where it is now. Each Fed policymaker's view of the appropriate year-end policy rate is depicted by an anonymous "dot" on a grid.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, who've, Wrightson ICAP, Wrightson, it's, Jerome Powell's, ’ ”, Powell, Ryan Sweet, Morgan Stanley, Oscar Munoz, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of America, Citibank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Oxford Economics, Securities, Derby, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S
China's temple visits skyrocket amid economic uncertainty
  + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Economic uncertainty has driven temple visits and tourism to new heights, according to analysts and travel websites. Temple visits have surged this year more than fourfold from a year ago, according to recent data from Qunar and Trip.com, another travel site. Social media has also fueled the boom in temple tourism, as young people like to share their experiences on social networks, she added. Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism Development, which runs the Jiuhua Mountain scenic area in central Anhui province, also shattered quarterly sales records. A small temple at Wudang Mountain in China's Hubei province pictured on October 27, 2004.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, , Qunar.com, Soeren, Yang Yan, Ryan Pyle, supplicants, Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Nanjing Securities, Social, Communist Party, Caitong Securities Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Qunar, Nanjing, Sichuan, Shan, Anhui Jiuhuashan Tourism, Anhui, Jiangxi province, Wudang, China's Hubei, Hangzhou
On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission sued Coinbase, America’s largest crypto exchange, for allegedly acting as an unregistered broker. “Since at least 2019, Coinbase has made billions of dollars unlawfully facilitating the buying and selling of crypto asset securities,” the SEC said in a press release. The Coinbase lawsuit comes on the heels of a similar SEC complaint against Binance, which is by far the world’s biggest crypto exchange. Since then, digital asset prices have tanked and regulators have stepped up their scrutiny of the industry. “It should get crypto closer to final rules of the road regardless of how the judge rules.”
Persons: Coinbase, “ Coinbase, , , Binance, Nansen, Cowen Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Securities and Exchange Commission, Binance, SEC, CNN, Binance.US Locations: New York
London CNN —Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has promised to continue with his unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to reduce sky-high inflation if he is re-elected on May 28. “I have a thesis that interest rates and inflation, they are directly correlated. The lower the interest rates, the lower the inflation will be,” Erdoğan told CNN. “In this country, the inflation rate will come down along with the interest rates, so that we will come to a point where people will be relieved. This is not an illusion.”Soaring pricesIn late 2021, as price rises started to accelerate around the world, Erdoğan ordered Turkey’s central bank to slash interest rates.
REUTERS/Tingshu WangIn contrast to surging prices globally, China’s retail and producer inflation has remained anaemic as the consumer and industrial sectors struggle to recover from their pandemic hit. Analysts now think consumer inflation could fall short of Beijing’s official targets this year. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 1.4%. GRAPHIC: China's inflation skids, hereFALLING SHORTThe government has set a target for average consumer prices in 2023 to be about 3%. “We think consumer price inflation will rebound in the coming months as the labour market tightens again and will peak at 2.3% in early 2024,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.
Paying more for deposits is an effective way for banks to keep customers loyal, analysts said. Smaller banks, which were most strained by the recent crisis, have been able to stem the exodus of deposits for now, according to weekly from the Federal Reserve. That said, the Fed’s data showed deposits at smaller banks were still down some $216 billion during the week ending March 22 from a December high. Meanwhile, large U.S. banks lost out on $96.2 billion in deposits in the week ending March 22, the Fed data showed. Deposits at large banks dropped some $519 billion from as high as $11.2 trillion in February last year.
BIG NUMBERSFed numbers showed the speed of the shift to a new balance sheet reality. Fed holdings peaked at just shy of $9 trillion last summer. The details of Fed holdings matters greatly in terms of understanding Fed balance sheet dynamics, analysts say. Benson Durham, head of global policy at Piper Sandler, said the key is the composition and not the size of Fed holdings. One factor limiting economists’ interpretation of the balance sheet surge is the fluidity of the factors now driving it.
Why People Are Worried About Banks
  + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( Christine Zhang | David Enrich | Karl Russell | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +12 min
First Republic Bank was forced to seek a lifeline this week, receiving tens of billions of dollars from other banks. These are known as unrealized losses — they turn into real losses only if the banks have to sell the assets. +2 % 0 –4 First Republic Pacific Western Signature −8 Plotted quarterly ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 +2 % 0 –4 Silicon Valley Western Alliance Zions −8 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 +2 % 0 First Republic Pacific Western Signature –4 −8 Plotted quarterly ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 +2 % 0 Silicon Valley Western Alliance Zions –4 −8 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 +2 % 0 First Republic Pacific Western Signature –4 −8 Plotted quarterly ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 +2 % 0 Silicon Valley Western Alliance Zions –4 −8 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council Note: Includes both “held-to-maturity” and “available-for-sale” securities, meaning both long- and short-term investments. Banks’ cash and noncash assets Plotted quarterly $200 billion Pacific Western Signature 150 100 First Republic 50 0 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 $200 billion Western Alliance Zions 150 100 50 Silicon Valley 0 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 Banks’ cash and noncash assets $200 billion Pacific Western Signature 150 100 50 First Republic 0 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 $200 billion Western Alliance Zions 150 100 50 Silicon Valley 0 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 Source: Federal Financial Institutions Examination CouncilMidsize banks like SVB do not have the same regulatory oversight as the nation’s biggest banks, who, among other provisions, are subject to tougher requirements to have a certain amount of reserves in moments of crisis. Last weekend, the Fed announced a program that offers loans of up to one year to banks using the banks’ government bonds and certain other assets as collateral.
Hong Kong CNN —China’s economic recovery appears to be on track as it gradually emerges from three years of its strict zero-Covid policy. But rising youth unemployment underscores the tough challenges ahead for the new government to achieve its economic targets and maintain social stability. “The economic data released today confirmed the recovery in China was well on track,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Recent PMI figures had indicated a strong recovery in China’s economic activity, with February’s factory output from large, state-owned enterprises hitting the highest level in more than a decade. A large number of employment seekers line up outside a job fair in Nanning, Guangxi province on February 18, 2023.
Hong Kong CNN —Hong Kong’s Covid-hit economy will return to growth this year and expand by between 3.5% and 5.5%, as the city opens up and China’s economic outlook improves, Hong Kong’s financial secretary said on Wednesday. On Wednesday, Hong Kong’s financial secretary Paul Chan said the economy will stage a significant rebound this year, with real GDP growth hitting 3.5% to 5.5%. Previously, analysts had broadly raised their forecasts for Hong Kong’s economic growth to a range between 3% and 6.5%. Industries like tourism, trade, and real estate, are set to “ride the crest of Hong Kong’s reopening wave,” they said. Currently, trading in Hong Kong’s financial market can be suspended under extreme weather, such as a typhoon.
CNN —In less than three months, four of the big five US tech companies have cut tens of thousands of employees combined, shattering myths about the industry’s seemingly unstoppable growth in the process. Tom Forte, a senior research analyst at DA Davison, agreed there will be staff reductions, but likely not as drastic as those at other large tech companies. How Apple avoided layoffs, so farFueled by a surge in demand for digital products earlier in the pandemic, Big Tech went on a massive hiring spree. Inflation pinched consumer and business spending, and rising interest rates evaporated the easy money tech companies had tapped into. Like other Big Tech companies, it has faced threats of antitrust action in the United States and EU.
The odds are “too high on Goldilocks; there’s still no easy way out,” analysts at BoFA Global Research wrote on Tuesday. Stocks tend to perform poorly in economic downturns, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services. Those rebounds inevitably crumbled, leaving the S&P 500 with a 19.4% annual loss, its worst since 2008. The most recent rally has lifted the S&P 500 more than 11% from its October lows. Strategists polled by Reuters at the end of 2021 saw the S&P 500 gaining a median of 7.5% last year.
Hong Kong CNN —Fast Retailing, the Japanese giant that owns popular clothing brands Uniqlo and Theory, will start paying its employees much more this year. The company announced Wednesday that it would boost salaries in Japan by up to 40%, acknowledging that “remuneration levels have remained low” in the country in recent years. “Inflation in Japan is a factor in our considerations,” a Fast Retailing spokesperson told CNN on Wednesday. But the company is generally more focused on aligning “each employee’s remuneration with global standards, to be able to increase our competitiveness,” the representative added. The retailer has also been hiking pay for staff in some of its overseas markets, leading to pay bumps ranging from 5% to 25%, the spokesperson said.
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