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"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.
Persons: , Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
Cryptocurrency investors spent much of 2023 waiting for good news. By the time news broke on Jan. 10 that 11 new bitcoin ETFs would begin trading, crypto investors were taking a victory lap, having bid the coin's price up by 155% in calendar year 2023. "They don't have the ability to put these bitcoin ETFs into client discretionary portfolios, yet," Sigel says. Expect more new crypto ETFs, too — and in different flavors. Experts say these might be as simple as portfolios that combine bitcoin exposure with mainstream investments, such as those in the S&P 500.
Persons: , Brian Vendig, That's, Matthew Sigel, Sigel, Todd Rosenbluth Organizations: SEC, stoke, MJP Wealth Locations: Westport , Connecticut
That's quite similar to what investors can get on government bonds, while high-quality corporate bonds yield more nearly 6.5% in the U.S. and U.K., and 4.6% in Europe. Here's what the pros say on how to invest within the fixed income space — cash or bonds — in the next two years and beyond. Schroders' Head of Strategic Research Duncan Lamont also stated his preference for bonds, saying that putting your money in cash means being exposed to interest rate fluctuations. And those rates are higher than cash — at 6.2% for corporate bonds with an average maturity of three years, and 6.5% on high-quality U.S. corporate bonds with an average tenure of 10 years, noted Lamont. "Fixed income is experiencing greater inflows than equities in the US and the same trend relative to cash in Europe.
Persons: Schroders, Luis D, Alvarado, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Ashish Shah Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Fed, CNBC Pro, Strategic, U.S . Federal, Goldman, Management, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Locations: U.S, Europe, Wells Fargo
In this article AAPL Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTTim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple Inc., holds an iPhone 15 Pro Max during an event at Apple Park campus in Cupertino, California, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2023. David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineIt was an astounding day for markets, with everything falling into place as perfectly as investors could have hoped for. Labor costs actually fell for a three-month period ending September — compared with an expected increase — while unemployment claims ticked up.
Persons: Tim Cook, Max, David Paul Morris, Stocks, there's, it's Organizations: Apple Inc, Apple, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Treasury, U.S, Labor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: Cupertino , California, U.S
This was higher than the $1.58 in earnings per share on $1.48 billion in revenue that analysts surveyed by FactSet had been expecting. Chewy — The pet food seller added 4% in premarket trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight. Chegg's third-quarter earnings came in at 18 cents per share, excluding items, higher than the 17 cents per share expected by analysts polled by LSEG. BP — Shares of the oil company slid 4% after the company missed analysts' estimates for its third-quarter earnings . XPO — The freight transportation company added 1.7% after announcing stronger-than-expected third-quarter earnings.
Persons: FactSet, Pinterest, Chewy, Morgan Stanley, Lauren Schenk, Caterpillar, LSEG, Tesla, XPO, Jefferies, AutoNation, Rajat Gupta, Wells, Ferguson, MoffettNathanson, Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Samantha Subin Organizations: Arista Networks, Arista, Revenue, Global, Anheuser, Busch, LSEG, Caterpillar — Investors, JetBlue, BP —, BP, JPMorgan, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
Dubbed “Davos in the Desert,” the annual Future Investment Initiative (FII) will welcome about 6,000 participants from more than 90 countries over the next three days. Since the Hamas assault on October 7, Israel has widened its offensive against the Palestinian militant group and other regional enemies. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Mohammad bin Salman, denied any personal involvement in Khashoggi’s murder but later confirmed it was carried out by Saudi officials. Bin Salman chairs the Public Investment Fund. “Very few people” had canceled plans to attend the conference, according to Richard Attias, the CEO of the FII Institute, the event’s organizer.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser, Defense Lloyd Austin, Larry Fink, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Noel Quinn, Ray Dalio, Stephen Schwarzman, Harvey Schwartz, Blackstone, Carlyle, “ We’re, it’s, , Fraser, Fink, , Karen E, WeWork, Slack, Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia’s, Mohammad bin Salman, Bin Salman, bin Salman, Masayoshi, Richard Attias, Young, — Winston Lo, Michelle Toh Organizations: London CNN, , Future Investment Initiative, Defense, Palestinian, Israel Defense Forces, West Bank, HSBC, Citigroup, Saudi, Public Investment Fund, Columbia University’s Center, Global Energy, CNN, Reliance Retail, Softbank’s Vision, Future Investment, FII Institute, Young of Columbia University Locations: Saudi Arabia, Israel, “ Davos, Gaza, Lebanon, Riyadh, Ukraine, Europe, United States, Washington, Russia, Saudi, Istanbul, Kingdom, Hong Kong
Tax-exempt income and relative safety are on sale for investors who are sniffing around municipal bonds. Tax-exempt income Interest income from municipal bonds is exempt from federal income tax — and can avoid state and local levies, too, if an investor and the bond issuer are in the same jurisdiction. This feature makes munis especially attractive to high-income investors in the 32% marginal federal income tax bracket and higher. Investors weighing a tax-exempt municipal bond against a corporate bond would do well to check out the tax equivalent yield. Schwab's Howard noted that the 5- to 7-year part of the municipal bond curve is favorable.
Persons: MUB, Nathan Will, Will, it's, Cooper Howard, Schwab's Howard, Shannon Saccocia Organizations: Federal Reserve, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, AAA, Bond, ., New York Life Investments, Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: munis, muni
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite dipped 0.67% after reopening from the Golden Week holiday. Golden Week, golden demandChina's domestic tourism during the "Golden Week" period, an eight-day holiday that ended Friday, rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, according to official figures. [PRO] After jobs, inflation numbersAfter last week's blockbuster jobs report, investors will be scrutinizing price readings this week for signs that inflation is abating despite a tight labor market. If price increases cool for the month — as economists expect — investors are hoping falling bond prices no longer drag down stocks.
Persons: Israel, Ian Bremmer, nonfarm payrolls, That's, Dow Jones, Hong Organizations: CNBC, Hamas Gunmen, Saturday, Hamas, Eurasia Group, Markets, Treasury Locations: Israel, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, South, Shanghai
7wireVentures, a prominent venture-capital firm, just raised $217 million to fund the next generation of healthcare startups, bringing the firm's total assets under management to more than $500 million. The fund, which closed last Friday, is the biggest that 7wire has ever raised and represents a strategy shift for the firm. The startups Folx Health and Parsley Health, new investments for 7wire, have also won contributions from the new fund. Livongo7wire keeps funds and the portfolio size, just north of 20 startups, both relatively small, all managed by only four partners: Tullman, Jaffee, Shapiro, and Garber. The small size of the operation is intentional in keeping with 7wire's "quality over quantity" approach to investing, Garber said.
Persons: 7wire, Glen Tullman, Lee Shapiro, Alyssa Jaffee, Alyssa Jaffee Alyssa Jaffee, Jaffee, Tullman, Shapiro, Robert Garber, Livongo's, Livongo 7wire, Garber, Jaffe Organizations: Folx, Parsley Health Locations: Tullman
Point72 is a pioneer in developing investor talent; the multi-manager has been running LaunchPoint, previously known as Nines, since 2012. More than 70 long/short managers have launched through LaunchPoint since it started in 2012, and 75% of those are still at Point72. They make up 50% of the firm's 100 long/short managers. For Point72, LaunchPoint was created with the idea that it can take two to three years to figure out how to be a PM. Point72"We saw that preparation really influenced the long-term success of new PMs," Weiner said.
Persons: Steve Cohen, Cohen, Harry Schwefel, Point72, Schwefel, Steve, haven't, It's, John Weiner, it's, John Pierson, Weiner, LaunchPoint, they've, Nick Shivers, Ariel Herman, Jon Weiner, Point72 LaunchPoint, Griffin Newman, Newman, Point72 Newman, Ryan Wilder, " Weiner Organizations: SAC Capital, Point72 Academy, P2 Investments, New York Mets, Point72, Brigade Capital Management, SAC Advisors, Bloomberg Locations: LaunchPoint, Point72
The eye-popping numbers are part of a longer-term shift toward private college housing. Moody's Analytics recently warned of an "affordability crisis" for college students, noting that since 2019, rents for student housing in a sample of notable college towns had grown faster than those of regular apartments. Student housing goes privateThe gold rush in student housing is a relatively new phenomenon. Back in the 1980s and '90s, most college students either lived in bland, cinder-block-walled dorms or in conventional apartments farther from campus. Even with his frugality, he came to realize that the prices in West Campus were "impossible to rationalize" for a college student.
Persons: behemoth Blackstone, Evan Scope, UT Austin who's, Carl Whitaker, Austin Kristian Alveo, Whitaker, Mark Austin, Kristian Alveo, David Willson, Willson, Gina Cowart, Cowart, David Kanne, lounging, Ann, Kanne, Lu Chen, RealPage, Donald Cohen, Cohen, Graham Sowden, Dan Allen, Allen, Austin, James Rodriguez Organizations: Waterloo, University of Texas, Wall Street's, American, Communities, National, Housing, Evan Scope Crafts, UT Austin, University, UT, LV, UTs, Crafts, American Campus, HBO, West, haven't, State College ,, Moody's, Power, Middlebury College, University of Tennessee, Arizona State University, Urban Institute, Investors, Power Five, RREAF Holdings Locations: Austin, Wall, Waterloo, UT Austin, Rio, Villas, West, West Campus, Gainesville , Florida, Ann Arbor , Michigan, State College , Pennsylvania, Knoxville, South
Government shutdown would leave the Fed flying blind
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Washington, DC CNN —In the event of a US government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it will stop releasing data, including key figures on inflation and unemployment. A lack of crucial government data would make it difficult for investors and the Federal Reserve to interpret the US economy. “By the time the Fed discovered its mistake, the effects of excessive monetary tightening could be difficult to reverse,” she said. It’s unclear whether the Fed would hold rates steady in the absence of government data or how it would navigate a government shutdown when deliberating monetary policy. The effects of a government shutdown also depend on how long it lasts, which also isn’t clear at this point.
Persons: Kevin McCarthy, acquiesce, Greg Daco, , Agron Nicaj, Price, Julia Pollak Organizations: DC CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, BLS, Republicans, , MUFG, Labor, Survey, ZipRecruiter, Fed Locations: Washington, EY, United States,
With an ultimate goal to be the go-to currency for the global financial system, it was, in hindsight, too ambitious, Marcus admits now. "If you're dependent on one centralized stablecoin to do global payments, it's a problem as we've experienced firsthand," he said. Why Meta's crypto project failedIn 2019 Meta unveiled plans to create a digital currency pegged to hard currencies including the US dollar. With his new startup, Lightspark, Marcus plans to hypercharge the global payments system is simpler, or at least less grandiose. Users will swap their local currency for bitcoin and then have it converted to the local currency of whichever country the capital is needed in.
Persons: David Marcus, Meta's, Libra, Diem, Marcus, Meta, that's, Mark Zuckerberg, he's, Christian Catalini, Marcus's, Catalini Organizations: PayPal, Visa, Securities and Exchange Commission, Meta, bitcoin, Facebook, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: Manhattan, Los Angeles, Bahrain
The relative strength index, which measures the magnitude and speed of price moves, is one way to evaluate whether shares are overbought or oversold. With this in mind, CNBC Pro screened for stocks in the broad market index that fell into overbought and oversold territory this past week. Overbought stocks Here are the ten most overbought stocks for the week. Several technology names made the list of overbought names, suggesting they may soon experience a pullback. Eli Lilly was the most overbought stock in the broad market index this week, with the highest 14-day RSI value of 85.8.
Persons: Jerome Powell's Jackson, Ralph Lauren, DXC, Eli Lilly Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Citi, Insulet Corp, Citigroup Locations: overbought
Fintech funding has been on a decline from 2021's peak levels, but VCs see signs of a rebound. VCs are itching to get back to dealmaking as they see early signs of a rebound in the fintech industry. Cash-strapped founders who didn't want to fundraise in a down market and get valuations slashed are running out of options and time. They dominated the fintech market in the past several years, but the shine is wearing off, Shriner said. Fintech VCs will get to spend more time on due diligence, looking beyond so-called "vanity metrics," Fernandez said.
Persons: Cash, didn't, Mark Peter Davis, Davis, We're, Tripp Shriner, Robert Ruark, Ruark, B2C, VCs, Shriner, — crowdedness, Stephanie Choo, Marcos Fernandez, KPMG's Ruark, Fintech, Fernandez Organizations: Interplay, Investors, Point72 Ventures, KPMG, Tiger, Portage Ventures, Fiat Ventures Locations: dealmaking, VCs, overvaluations
So what's hot in fintech right now? One area fintech companies are getting excited by is an improvement to online checkout tools. Callan Carvey, global head of operations at Cleo, said the firm's AI connects to a customer's bank account to get a better understanding of their financial behavior. "A job that typically would take around one or two weeks can now be completed in 30 minutes, right. Several fintech executives CNBC interviewed spoke of how they're not interested in launching products tailored to crypto as the demand from their customers isn't there.
Persons: MacKenzie Sigalos, hasn't, they've, Starling, Richard Davies, Davies, Niklas Guske, , B2C fintechs, David Singleton, Guske, dazzled, Cleo, Callan Carvey, Carvey, Teo Blidarus, Taktile's, Hiroki Takeuchi, Takeuchi, Changpeng Zhao, they're, Jack Zhang, Zhang, Prajit Nanu, cryptocurrencies, Banks, Nanu Organizations: Bank, fintechs, CNBC, Business, Allica Bank, B2B, Tiger, Schroders Capital, Atom Bank, Schroders, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, U.S, cryptocurrencies Locations: Amsterdam, MacKenzie Sigalos AMSTERDAM, Netherlands, British, Atomico, U.S
There could be an even more dramatic second act to the debt ceiling drama. This time around, one of the top credit rating agencies, Fitch, has already placed US debt on rating watch negative. As of Wednesday, the other two major sovereign debt credit rating agencies, S&P and Moody’s, have not placed US debt under review. If Fitch downgrades US debt, it could cause yields on Treasury notes to spike, underscoring the increased risks associated with holding US debt. However, the opposite occurred after S&P downgraded US debt in 2011 — investors shrugged it off and bought more bonds, sending yields lower.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Biden, It’s, Fitch, McCarthy, Chip Somodevilla, Michael Reynolds, , George Catrambone Organizations: New, New York CNN, Senate, AAA, US Treasury, U.S . Department of Treasury, Treasury Department, DWS, Treasury Locations: New York, States, US, Washington ,, Americas
What Would Happen if the U.S. Defaulted on Its Debt
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Joe Rennison | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
The U.S. debt limit has been reached and the Treasury Department is finding ways to save cash. After it runs out of maneuvers, what once seemed unfathomable could become reality: The United States defaults. The far-reaching effects are hard to fully predict: from shock waves in financial markets to bankruptcies, recession and potentially irreversible damage to the nation’s long-held role at the center of the global economy. The probability of a default remains low, at least based on opposing lawmakers’ assurances that a deal will be done to raise or suspend the debt limit and the long odds implied by trading in certain financial markets. “We are sailing into uncharted waters,” said Andy Sparks, head of portfolio management research at MSCI, which creates indexes that track a wide range of financial assets, including in the Treasury market.
Fed Will Decide Next Rate Move After Bank Jitters
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Despite the Fed’s moves — which were meant to rein in quick inflation by slowing the economy — the job market has maintained some momentum and price increases have shown concerning staying power. Companies continue to hire at a solid clip, and data released last week showed that wages continued to climb quickly at the start of the year. The Fed could hint at a pauseWhen Fed policymakers released their economic estimates in March, they expected to raise interest rates to a range of 5 to 5.25 percent in 2023. If officials adjust policy as expected this week, they will have lifted rates to that level. Mr. Powell could offer some signal during his news conference, or he could opt to leave the Fed’s options open — which is what some economists expect.
The biggest week of this earnings season showed us that things aren't as bad as many feared. The week ahead of earnings, including several more Club names, should tell us more. The results are always important, but it's the guidance and management commentary we will really hone in on to better understand the path ahead. In Amazon's case, a solid first quarter for its AWS cloud business was overshadowed by management seeing a material slowdown in April. ET: Nonfarm Payrolls Looking back It was the biggest week of this earnings season for the Club as several of our mega-cap holdings and industry bellwethers reported results.
A Deutsche Bank AG flag flies outside the company's office on Wall Street in New York. Banks — Shares of U.S. banks fell as investors worried about the global banking system. First Republic Bank fell 3%, while Western Alliance , Zions Bancorporation and Fifth Third all lost more than 2%. Energy stocks — Energy names fell in in the premarket as oil prices slid, with investors worried about potential oversupply. Marathon Oil and Devon Energy fell about 3%.
SVB was a great partner to all the innovation that's happened in Silicon Valley," Varun Badhwar, CEO and co-founder of Palo Alto, California-based security software startup Endor Labs, tells CNBC Make It. "I still fundamentally believe there was nothing foundationally wrong with the bank." Before the crash, SVB counted nearly half of the country's venture-backed startups as clients, according to its website. CNBC Make It spoke with a group of startup bosses across a variety of industries, all of whom lost access to some, or all, of their company's money during the crash. But as investors' and other founders' attitudes changed throughout the afternoon, he decided to get the company's money out.
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday as it attempts to fight stubbornly high inflation while addressing risks to financial stability. Powell said that the central bank anticipates growth will slow and inflation will decline gradually this year and next year. Before the banking crisis, the Fed was fairly certain that more rate hikes would be coming in the future. But markets tend to be fickle after Fed meetings and traders’ opinions of the meeting could change in early trading. Norway and Switzerland hiked rates earlier Thursday, and the Bank of England is expected to do so too at 8a ET.
A policy rate announcement is expected on Wednesday along with new economic projections, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will face the press to answer questions. Is the Fed’s fight against inflation destabilizing the banking system? The US banking system is under a lot of pressure right now. Lagarde opted to portray that rate increase as a signal that the financial system remains strong. Yet, ironically, the banking mess is now helping tech companies and cryptocurrencies as investors flock out of the banking system in search of alternative safe spaces to store their cash.
Tech's on a roll. But some market pros aren't convinced
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Bill Smead, chief investment officer at Smead Capital Management, for example, says it has the hallmark of a bear market rally. "We believe that enthusiasm for aggressive technology-oriented stocks in the last couple of months is exactly what you get in a bear market rally. Whether it be Tesla or any of the aggressive growth stocks, they are in a bear market rally and they are going to try to convince people that the bear market is over. "And that's what a bear market rally looks like it. JPMorgan has also turned more bearish on the tech sector, just months after it turned positive on the sector in October.
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