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☆ Morning Bid: Brittle banks find a berth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With few fresh weekend developments on the European bank stock rigor late last week, European bourses and bank stocks found a level too. Deutsche Bank, whose stock lurched lower on Friday amid fears about rising bank funding costs, regained about 3% on Monday. Deposits at small banks fell by $120 billion in the week to March 15, while borrowing jumped $253 billion. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline year-on-year inflation rate to have cooled to 7.2% from 8.5% in February. * U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year notes* U.S. corporate earnings: CarnivalReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ UBS's Dargan and Credit Suisse's McDonagh to lead merger -newspaper
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ZURICH, March 25 (Reuters) - The integration team tasked with merging Switzerland's two largest banks is to be headed by UBS's (UBSG.S) chief technology officer and Credit Suisse's (CSGN.S) chief operating officer, the Tages-Anzeiger newspaper reported on Saturday. Mike Dargan, who has been with UBS for 7 years, and Francesca McDonagh, who joined Credit Suisse last September, will be tasked with unifying the two banks. It is unclear when the merger will be completed. UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.26 billion) in stock and to assume up to 5 billion francs ($5.44 billion) in losses, in a merger engineered by Swiss authorities. ($1 = 0.9199 Swiss francs)Reporting by Noele Illien; editing by Jason NeelyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank angst persists, unnerves Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But banks boosted borrowing under the Fed's newly launched Bank Term Funding Program to $53.7 billion - almost 5 times its first outing the previous week. European bank stocks fell 3% early on Friday, with Deutsche Bank shares (DBKGn.DE) down for a third day - losing 5% amid rising market costs for insuring against the risk of default. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to attend Friday's European Union summit in Brussels and update leaders on the state of affairs in the financial system. Wider markets were lower in Asia and Europe and U.S. stock futures were in the red again ahead of the open. With less than a 50% chance of another Fed rate rise in this cycle now priced into the futures, almost 80 basis points of rate cuts are now seen by year-end.

Similarly, the U.S. economy and stock markets tend to outperform during booms and draw in overseas investment that lifts demand for dollars. Surely times of great banking and credit stress should boost the greenback? And now we face a bout of severe banking stress alongside stubbornly high inflation that had almost all major central banks raising interest rates again over the past week despite the pretty clear underlying credit stress. JPMorgan's take on the stressed side of the dollar smile last week pointed out that "the underlying macro-financial pathology that necessitates lower yields is the primary determinant of dollar direction". Clearly, the dollar smile is no laughing matter.

☆ Morning Bid: Central banks try to see through stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanEven with a nod to greater banking stress, the major central banks all seem determined to tighten the monetary screw another notch. With Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's pushback against suggestions of a blanket insurance of all U.S. banking deposits unnerving investors again after the Fed decision, few believe the financial stress has fully dissipated. Even though stock markets swooned after the Yellen comments on Wednesday, S&P500 futures were back up smartly ahead of Thursday's open. European bourses and banking stocks were only a touch lower in the face of the latest European rate rises. The dollar hit its lowest since early February but regained its footing ahead of the U.S. open and BoE decision.

WASHINGTON, March 22 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden's team is leaning toward basing his 2024 re-election campaign in his hometown of Wilmington, Delaware, and is considering at least three people to serve as his campaign manager, Democratic sources familiar with the matters said. Philadelphia, home to Biden's 2020 campaign operations, has also been under consideration, the sources said. The president is considering at least three people for the role of campaign manager, according to Democratic sources familiar with the deliberations. Jen O'Malley Dillon, who served as Biden's campaign manager in 2020, has ruled out returning to the role in 2024, two sources said. Now deputy chief of staff at the White House, she will be influential in selecting who takes the reins for the 2024 race, one source said.

☆ Morning Bid: Leaning back to Fed hike, UK inflation jolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Two weeks of U.S. and European banking stress and failures leaves the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in the unenviable position of choosing between stabilising financial systems and fighting still historically high inflation. On top of that, the latest quarterly economic projections from Fed policymakers may reveal a big dispersion of views. Beyond the Fed, the dire UK inflation reading seems to have solidified expectations of another BoE rate rise on Thursday and a further move later in the year. If nothing else, it underlines in red ink just how all central banks are totally dependent now on incoming data evidence on what's happening in the real economy. With the U.S. dollar lower across the board ahead of the Fed meeting, sterling hit its highest level since early February.

Economists who obsess about tightly calibrating the quantity of money in the system balk at QE as a tool. Two weeks of turmoil in mid-sized U.S. banks follow just nine months in which the Fed had been winding down its outsize balance sheet that peaked near $9 trillion during the pandemic. "Illiquidity episodes may force central banks to slow the process of reserve withdrawal. Reuters GraphicsILLIQUIDTY EPISODESThis could become a trap that prevents normalisation of the balance sheet longer term, they said. Better-measured and more forward-looking liquidity regulations, incentives for longer-duration deposits during QE bouts and rethinking stress tests were all options, they wrote.

☆ Norfolk Southern CEO told that railroads' planned voluntary safety improvements aren't enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw returns to Capitol Hill Wednesday facing pressure to support rail safety legislation proposed in the wake of his railroad’s massive toxic spill from a February 3 derailment in East Palestine, Ohio. “We support legislative efforts to enhance the safety of the freight rail industry,” was the only discussion of the legislation in his prepared remarks. Shaw said the railroad would support increasing fines and penalties for people found tampering with railroad facilities and safety equipment, without endorsing proposals for potential fines on railroads found guilty of safety violations. They said residents who live near freight rail tracks can’t depend on the railroad’s voluntary measures to improve safety. Vance said it is important to raise the maximum fine for rail safety violations from the current limit of $225,455.

☆ Norfolk Southern CEO says he supports parts of new rail safety bills
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw on Wednesday told senators that his railroad company supports parts of two bipartisan rail safety bills that came in the wake of a derailment last month of a train carrying toxic materials in Ohio. Shaw did not fully endorse the Railway Safety Act, which includes provisions calling for two-person crews on all railroad locomotives. "We're not aware of any data that links crew size with safety," Shaw said Wednesday. "There are significant opportunities for advanced technology to enhance rail safety, and we encourage Congress to consider additional research into on-board rail car defect detection technology." Ohio sued Norfolk Southern last week, seeking damages, civil penalties and a "declaratory judgement that Norfolk Southern is responsible," Attorney General Dave Yost said.

☆ Democrats, Republicans, and companies all seem to agree: college degrees aren't the future
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ethan Dodd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A bachelor's degree has become a common requirement for landing US jobs, even those that didn't previously require one. Josh Shapiro signed an executive order opening up 92%, or roughly 65,000, of state jobs to those without college degrees. They urged more states to follow to move the economy away from a preference for college degrees, restoring a sense of fairness many Americans feel is lost. Oregon also issued a temporary order in 2022 allowing those without bachelor's degrees to work as substitute teachers. A college degree may increase your earning potential, but it may not hold the keys to the middle class for much longer.

☆ Morning Bid: Fed halt being priced as bank blaze smoulders
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanAnother weekend of financial firefighting has doused the whole interest rate horizon as the banking blaze smoulders. European bank chiefs were immediately on guard for further contagion and insisted more support was required. And that thinking has crushed the interest rate horizon everywhere. Futures markets now see the first Fed rate cut emerging by midyear. * European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament in Brussels* Chinese President Xi Jinping meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

☆ Morning Bid: Shock and awe - or mayday?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanMarkets are struggling with whether to be relieved by the sheer scale of Thursday's U.S. bank rescue or be terrified by it. But there was little confidence the rising financial stress would dissipate quickly from here. The discount window jump crashed through a prior record of $112 billion during the banking collapse of 2008. What's more, 75 basis points of Fed rate cuts are still priced between a peak of 5% in May to yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Even though reading anything with certainty from such volatile prices is difficult right now, the runes of the bond market suggest unfolding banking stress will suppress inflation anyway - regardless of further central bank action. "That would be very much in line with what the central banks want." U.S. equivalents were steadier about 2.5%, but five-year "breakeven" inflation rates from the index-linked market fell to 2.3%. To be fair to central bank policymakers, their own early warning systems - such as the ECB's Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress - don't yet show any more pressure on the system than they did during last year's tightening. Armed with Thursday's trial run from the ECB, the Fed and BoE will now have to make that judgment next week.

☆ Morning Bid: Swiss lifeline, ECB dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Swiss lender said it would exercise an option to borrow from its central bank up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion). That followed assurances from Swiss authorities on Wednesday the country's second largest bank met "the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks". Policymakers and regulators across Europe and Asia rushed to reassure the public and markets that banks in their jurisdictions were safe and well-capitalised. Like other central banks, the ECB has been raising interest rates rapidly to curb inflation and has since July tightened credit at its fastest pace on record. As it stands, money markets now price an 80% chance the ECB will move tentatively and only hike by a quarter point to 2.75%.

☆ Layoff anxiety is real—but you can still thrive during challenging times. Here’s how
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Morgan Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"I often ask myself, 'Why am I working right now if I might not have a job in two months?'" Living in fear of losing your job can be crippling — but confronting your layoff anxiety head-on is the best way to beat the panic. Here are three strategies to cope with layoff anxiety. Detach your identity from your jobSpending more time on the hobbies, relationships and interests that bring you joy outside of work is another powerful antidote to layoff anxiety. Being his own boss, Jacobowitz jokes, gives him ultimate job security: "It's not like I can fire myself!"

☆ Morning Bid: Deep breaths as banks calm, but only a bit
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is considering tougher rules and oversight for midsize banks similar in size to Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed suddenly last week. Strengthened rules on banks in the $100 billion to $250 billion range could ape those for larger more systemic banks and involve stringent capital and liquidity requirements or beefed up annual "stress tests". Even though reports abounded of depositor flight from the smaller weaker banks to the larger financial firms, stock prices in the sector at large caught a breath. The VIX equity volatility gauge (.VIX) hugged Tuesday's close at 23. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Central banks juggling inflation and financial stability mandates are prompting the wildest swings in bedrock government bonds for over a decade and a surge in volatility that may end up causing problems of its own. "The Fed and other central bankers have lost the luxury of focusing singularly on the fight against inflation," said Manulife Investment Management's Frances Donald. If the history of banking crashes and related credit crunches show them to be deflationary anyway, then many argue a central bank pause now may be the wisest choice. "The Fed is now fighting inflation as well as potential financial contagion," Lombard Odier Chief Investment Officer Stéphane Monier said. The first sign of regional bank stock calm on Tuesday, alongside the sticky core inflation readings for February, prompted a build-back of some bets for one last hike from each central bank.

☆ AMERICAS Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the implications of this sudden bout of financial instability - and its potential economic and policy fallout - were most clearly seen in the interest rate and bond markets. Implied terminal rates for the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been dramatically scaled back too - though one or two further hikes are still priced for those central banks. But the Fed rethink has led to seismic action on the U.S. Treasury market, with the biggest drop in 2-year Treasury yields on Monday since the stock market crash of 1987. Credit spreads in the corporate bond markets have also widened sharply as investors fear an economy-wide tightening of borrowing standards and financial conditions. It would certainly think twice about tightening policy again into this level of financial stress and bond market upheaval.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Ohio lawmakers want kids to work longer hours, saying it'll keep them off TikTok
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Danni Santana | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Ohio lawmakers aim to pass a bill that extends work hours for students and decreases time on TikTok. Time spent by teenagers on apps like TikTok and Instagram has been top-of-mind among lawmakers. According to the bill's sponsors, the pending state law should also limit the time teenagers spend on social media apps like TikTok. Mike DeWine had proposed a new "Social Media Parental Notification Act," as part of his 2023 executive budget. The legislation would mandate that social media sites receive parental approval before children under the age of 16 can sign up for an account.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks rescued, rates recoil, stress builds
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Early last week as much as a half point rate hike was almost fully priced. Now back as low as 4.8%, the implied peak Fed rate for the cycle has plummeted almost a full percentage point over that time. Goldman Sachs now says it no longer expects the Fed to raise rates on March 21-22. The Federal Reserve also made it easier for banks to borrow from it in emergencies. More broadly, the implications for Fed monetary policy caused most ructions and complicated overall index direction that's torn between bank losses and the repricing of rates.

Based on traditional and long-abandoned fixed policy models, Cleveland Fed researchers reckon policy is already more aggressive than any of those rules suggest. The political and policy appetite for zero interest rates or quantitative easing - which seemed to chase estimates of R-star ever lower over the past decade - is gone. At the same time, real yields above 4% have proven unsustainable historically. Bhatia feels real yields somewhere in the middle is where markets will settle. Given the economy-wide accumulation of debt over recent years, real 10-year yields in a 1.5%-2.0% range probably works.

☆ Morning Bid: Bond blows batter banks as SVB cracks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SVB may be an unusual case in point - given its exposure to both last year's attrition in the tech sector, related startups and bond markets. Major U.S. banks were also hit, with Wells Fargo (WFC.N) down 6%, JPMorgan (JPM.N) down 5.4%, Bank of America (BAC.N) 6% lower and Citigroup (C.N) 4% lower. In currency markets, the dollar held the line on Friday in its lonely easy monetary policy stance. The BOJ held off making changes to its controversial bond yield cap policy, leaving all options open ahead of a leadership transition in April. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Job runes, China offer sliver of rate hope
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

That certainly ups the ante for Friday's monthly employment report and next week's consumer price index releases. But the rate at which people were leaving jobs voluntarily was falling and layoffs were up. Another pause for thought came from China's February inflation numbers that show annual consumer price rises slowed to just 1%, the lowest rate in a year. More broadly on Thursday, interest rates markets retained their dramatic re-pricing and relatively resilient stock markets tilted negative again. The implied end-2023 rate is now above 5.50% - more than a full percentage point above where it was assumed on February 1.

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