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Brent crude futures for April , due to expire on Tuesday, were up by 39 cents to $82.84 per barrel by 0718 GMT. Likewise, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 61 cents to $76.29 a barrel. Brent and WTI futures were both on track, however, for monthly losses of around 2.2% and 3.8% respectively, with WTI likely to hit a four-month streak of declines. JPMorgan's oil analysts maintained their 2023 average price forecast on Brent crude futures at $90 per barrel. Seven analysts polled also estimated that gasoline stocks rose by about 700,000 barrels.

Brent crude futures for April , due to expire on Tuesday, gained 14 cents to $82.59 per barrel by 0443 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 21 cents to $75.89 a barrel. Brent and WTI futures were both on track for monthly losses of around 2.2% and 3.8% respectively, with WTI likely to hit a four-month streak of declines. JPMorgan's oil analysts maintained their 2023 average price forecast on Brent crude futures at $90 per barrel. A preliminary Reuters poll showed analysts expected crude stocks grew by 400,000 barrels in the week to Feb. 24, which would mark the tenth consecutive week of builds.

☆ Oil steadies after fall on fear of rate hikes, rising inventories
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"The stronger than expected inflation numbers raised concerns about further hikes in interest rates, which has already curbed demand in the U.S.," ANZ analysts said in a client note. The possibility that slower-growing wages might help limit inflation, however, kept crude from moving lower. The market will be looking out for the latest U.S. oil stocks data due from the American Petroleum Institute industry group on Tuesday and the government's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday for further demand indicators. A preliminary Reuters poll showed analysts expected crude stocks grew by 400,000 barrels in the week to Feb. 24, which would mark the tenth consecutive week of builds. Helping to put a floor on prices, distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, were expected to have decreased by about 500,000 barrels last week.

☆ Futures slip as yields rise on bets of higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The gains, however, were not enough to reverse monthly losses for the three main indexes, with the blue-chip Dow (.DJI) in the red for the year after strong economic data suggested the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. FEDWATCHThe yield on two-year Treasury notes , which track investors' expectations of the path of interest rates, rose to 4.8%, trading just below a near four-month high hit in the previous session. Yields are climbing higher in the U.S. and that's pushing down equity markets," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. "We're talking about stickier inflation in the economy and higher interest rates for longer. ET, Dow e-minis were down 25 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 18.25 points, or 0.15%.

☆ Oil rebounds almost 2% on China growth hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday, erasing the previous session's losses, as hopes for a strong economic rebound in China offset worries about U.S. interest rate hikes dragging down consumption in the world's biggest economy. Expectations of demand recovery in China underpinned gains, with the market awaiting key data over the next two days. "China's economic recovery will drive its demand for commodities higher, with oil positioned to benefit the most," JPMorgan analysts said in a client note. Similarly, JPMorgan's oil analysts maintained their 2023 average price forecast on Brent at $90 a barrel. Meanwhile in the U.S., crude production fell in December to 12.10 million bpd, its lowest since August 2022, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed.

☆ Gold faces worst month in nearly two years on U.S. rate-hike dread
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices eased on Tuesday and were headed for their biggest monthly loss since June 2021 as impending interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve sapped the non-yielding asset's appeal. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,816.19 per ounce as of 0317 GMT, after hitting a two-month low on Monday. "The question is still, 'How much more to hawkish Fed repricing?' "A pause in hawkish Fed repricing could see USD momentum ease and that can provide support to gold." Markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.403% in September.

☆ Stocks close slightly up after prior week's selloff
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

All three main stock indexes climbed more than 1% shortly after the opening bell, in part due to an easing in Treasury yields, and all three closed well off their session highs. Stocks steadily gave up gains throughout the session as U.S. Treasury yields moved off the day's lows. Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 27, 2023. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.69-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.41-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 4 new 52-week highs and 8 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 102 new lows.

Amid a confounding mix of economic signals, Wall Street shares edged up on Monday, a sign of potential bargain hunting. U.S. two-year Treasury yields , the most sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations, have risen almost 80 bps in that time, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) has lost 6% from Feb. 2's five-month highs. On Monday, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 2 basis points to 4.785%, while 10-year Treasury yields dropped 2.3 basis points to 3.926%. Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan, has added another quarter-point hike to the ECB outlook, taking it to 100 basis points. The dollar has been the main beneficiary of the shift in expectations for Fed rates.

Losses were limited by oil supply concerns after Russia halted exports to Poland via a key pipeline. That positive economic data helped global stock markets to rebound, yet shares remained near six-week lows as investors braced for interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe. Adding to global oil demand worries, rising Sino-U.S. tensions hammered equity markets in China and Hong Kong while investors awaited policy signals from the upcoming National People's Congress. On Monday, Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft said it started pumping oil from Kazakhstan to Germany via Poland through the Druzhba pipeline, while halting deliveries to Poland. Russia announced plans this month to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding previously mooted production cuts of 5%.

☆ Wall Street bounces modestly after prior week's selloff
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Each of the three main indexes climbed more than 1% shortly after the opening bell, in part due to an easing in Treasury yields. The yield on two-year Treasury notes , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, slipped after touching a near four-month high. Seagen Inc (SGEN.O) surged 9.73% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer (PFE.N) was in early talks to acquire the biotech firm. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.30-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.66-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 82 new lows.

☆ Wall Street edges higher after last week's rout
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Some relatively significant losses last week is the starting point," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. "Also, when you look at the drivers last week, better-than-expected economic data pushed yields higher. The yield on two-year Treasury notes , the most sensitive to short-term rate expectations, slipped after touching a near four-month high earlier. Seagen Inc (SGEN.O) surged 10.5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer (PFE.N) was in early talks to acquire the biotech firm. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 51 new highs and 64 new lows.

Several indicators suggest that housing services inflation is likely to come down in the coming months. There is more uncertainty surrounding inflation in core services excluding housing," Jefferson said in remarks to a Harvard University economics class. The Fed uses the PCE index to sets its inflation target. "I'm under no illusion that it's going to be easy to get the inflation rate back down to 2%," Jefferson said. Jefferson did not detail his views on the Fed's upcoming policy decision, or how much higher he thinks the target federal funds rate might have to move beyond the 4.5% to 4.75% range set at the Fed's last meeting.

☆ Wall Street climbs after worst weekly selloff of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"February historically is the second worst month of the year for the stock market. So investors are concluding from a seasonal perspective that maybe stocks could rally at least in the near term." The yield on two-year notes , the most sensitive to short-term rate expectations, slipped after touching a near four-month high earlier in the session. After last week's hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers, investors will turn to Fed Governor Philip Jefferson's speech later in the day. Seagen Inc (SGEN.O) surged 12.2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer (PFE.N) was in early talks to acquire the biotech firm.

☆ Wall Street set for opening gains after sharp weekly losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Futures pointed to a recovery in sentiment on Monday as U.S. Treasury yields slipped after a strong rally. Rate-sensitive growth stocks such as Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) climbed in premarket trading. So investors are concluding from a seasonal perspective that maybe stocks could rally at least in the near term." After last week's hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers, investors will turn to Fed Governor Philip Jefferson's speech later in the day. Seagen Inc (SGEN.O) surged 13.2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer (PFE.N) was in early talks to acquire the biotech firm.

☆ Morning Bid: Long March ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"If it goes down that road it will come at real costs to China," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN. China said on Monday it sought dialogue and peace for Ukraine despite the U.S. warnings. European stocks and U.S. futures recaptured some ground on Monday but the DXY dollar index briefly hit its highest since Jan. 6. The new U.S. interest rate horizon remains jarring, however. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N) on Saturday reported its highest-ever annual operating profit, even as foreign currency losses and rising interest rates contributed to lower earnings in the fourth quarter.

☆ Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some background: The Covid-19 crisis triggered a sudden shift in student loan policy and a new openness to forgiveness. About 40% of those with federal student loan debt would have a zero balance; even more would have a much smaller monthly payment. But, “if payments resume without debt relief, we expect both student loan default and delinquencies to rise and potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels,” warned Fed researchers. Those missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations. “We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief,” said the report.

☆ Morning Bid: Kuroda 2.0
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Japanese government's nominee for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda arrives for a hearing session at the lower house of the parliament in Tokyo, Japan, February 24, 2023. Interest rate markets are positioned for an end to yield curve control as a first step away from decades of super-easy policy experiments in Japan. Yet as he fronted his confirmation hearing before parliament on Friday, he sounded very much like incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda. Traders responded with relief and the Nikkei share average (.N225) had its best session in a month. A surprise could shake things up, though with U.S. rate expectations already ratcheting higher through February a degree of stickiness is priced in.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

☆ Morning Bid: War and PCE
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith world headlines focussed on first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the inflationary consequences that pounded world markets last year still smoulder. Curiously, the initial energy shock from the Ukraine war is already less of a problem than the change in pricing behaviour that it seeded - especially in services still distorted by the pandemic, in corporate margin building and rising wage settlements. But it's the pickup and stickiness in underlying "core" prices, excluding energy and food, that is irking the central banks and the Federal Reserve most of all. Alongside another tight U.S. weekly jobs report, markets got another glimpse of those price pressures on Thursday. And increasingly buoyed by the still intense geopolitical fallout from a year of the war in Ukraine, the dollar pushed higher yet again.

"It's going to take more effort on the part of the Fed to get inflation on that sustainable downward path to 2%." She is among the minority of Fed policymakers who back in December thought they would need to lift the policy rate to 5.4% to stop inflation, while most believed 5.1% would suffice. Similarly none of the other Fed policymakers who spoke Friday, including the normally hawkish Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, focused on the fresh inflation data to argue for a more muscular Fed response, though all continued to signal more rate hikes would be required. And traders largely erased what had been consistent bets on Fed rate cuts towards the end of the year, pricing in a year-end Fed policy rate of 5.26%. "It looks like the Fed will have to be more aggressive," said Yelena Shulyatyeva, an economist at BNP Paribas.

☆ Stocks are reversing course as inflation looks sticky with more retail earnings on deck
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The optimism about inflation and the U.S. economy is quickly waning on Wall Street, and the early 2023 rally for stocks is fading. The market was under pressure again on Friday after a hotter-than-expected reading for personal consumption expenditures, sending rates higher and stocks lower. Economic updates Next week brings a new round of economic indicators to see how the sticky inflation is affecting consumers and business. Other looks at the economy will come through key earnings reports. Speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller Friday: 9:45 a.m. Markit Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM Services PMI 3:00 p.m.

☆ Fed can't tame inflation without 'significantly' more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve building is seen before the Federal Reserve board is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation in Washington, January 26, 2022. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to raise interest rates considerably higher, causing a recession, according to a research paper released Friday. The Fed has implemented a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation that had been at its highest level in some 41 years. That change implemented "average inflation targeting," allowing inflation to run hotter than normal in the interest of a more inclusive employment recovery. Fed Governor Philip Jefferson released a reply to the report, saying that the current situation differs from previous inflation episodes.

All eyes on Friday - not just in Asia but around the world - will be fixed on Japan, specifically the latest inflation figures and the first of two parliamentary confirmation hearings from incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. The importance of Japan on global market flows and pricing cannot be overstated. Japan is the world's largest creditor nation and a chunk of the trillions of dollars Japanese investors have invested overseas could be repatriated if domestic monetary policy is tightened. Not only are the Fed and many other central banks raising interest rates, it finally looks like inflation has come to Japan. It could be a volatile end to the week for markets, with U.S. inflation figures for January also slated for release.

☆ Liberal, conservative advance in Wisconsin Supreme Court race with abortion rights at stake
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Joseph Ax | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Former state Supreme Court Justice Daniel Kelly, a staunch conservative who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump when he ran unsuccessfully for re-election in 2020, took second place, the AP projected. With a Democratic governor, Tony Evers, and a Republican-majority legislature often at loggerheads, the state Supreme Court's 4-3 conservative majority has issued a string of decisions that typically favored Republicans. But a conservative justice is leaving the bench this year, putting the political leaning of the court in question. Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit claiming the statute is invalid - a case eventually headed for the state Supreme Court. A new liberal majority could also revisit other statutes, such as laws requiring voter identification, permitting concealed carry of firearms and weakening public sector unions.

☆ Abortion rights at stake in Wisconsin Supreme Court election
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Joseph Ax | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Feb 21 (Reuters) - Wisconsin voters on Tuesday will decide which state Supreme Court candidates will advance to an April election that carries profound consequences for abortion rights, control of the state government and the 2024 presidential election. And the justices could issue election law rulings that affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential race, when Wisconsin is expected to be a swing state. The contest already ranks among the most expensive state supreme court races in history, according to Douglas Keith, an attorney at New York University's Brennan Center for Justice who tracks spending on judicial elections. Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul filed a lawsuit claiming the statute is invalid - a case eventually headed for the state Supreme Court. "This is Wisconsin's Roe moment," said Gracie Skogman, a spokesperson for Wisconsin Right to Life, which is backing the conservative candidates.

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