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Analysis: The deep freeze over UK assets is thawing
  + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"This does suggest a possible inflection point in sentiment towards UK assets," said Nick Kissack, a UK portfolio manager at Schroders, which manages roughly $910 billion of client funds. "We saw extreme levels of risk aversion," in September, he added, while "the risk premium for UK assets has come down since." That, in short, is an outlook of higher global interest rates, weak growth and high inflation. Reuters GraphicsHowever, analysts expect the FTSE 100's rise to falter with a stronger global growth outlook combined with waning energy inflation. "The UK is the standout global economy where growth prospects have not improved," said Baylee Wakefield, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, who expects gilts to continue outperforming Treasuries.
TOKYO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Asia-Pacific stocks fell on Friday, slumping toward a second weekly loss as investors fretted about the potential for further Federal Reserve tightening and the effect on the U.S. economy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) sank 0.54% and was on course for a 1% weekly decline, after losing 1.16% in the previous week. "If rates go past that five, five-and-a-quarter percent range that the Fed has previously indicated, markets are definitely not priced for that - absolutely not." The 10-year yield edged down to around 3.67% after bumping around 3.96% mid-week, also the highest since Jan. 6. Brent crude futures fell 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $84.22 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 35 cents, or 0.5%, to $77.71.
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, February 8, 2023. Crude prices eased, with gold firmer as the dollar index fell 0.18%, while MSCI's U.S.-centric index of stock performance in 47 countries (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. China's blue chips (.CSI300) rose 1.3%, pulling away from a one-month trough, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) gained 1.6%. Crude prices eased as oil infrastructure appeared to have escaped serious damage from the earthquake that devastated parts of Turkey and Syria, while U.S. inventories swelled and investors worried about central bank rate hikes. Gold prices rose for a fourth straight session as the dollar faltered, even as Fed officials indicated more rate hikes are warranted to rein in inflation.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.51% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.69%. China's shares (.SSEC) was set to open 0.1% higher, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was 0.22% higher. Asian shares tracked Wall Street, which ended higher in choppy trading as investors digested Powell's speech. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was at 103.30, having dropped to as low as 102.99 in the previous session. The Japanese yen was flat at 131.08 per dollar, after surging 1.2% in the previous session.
Australia's S&P/ASX200 (.AXJO) was trading higher ahead of the Reserve Bank's decision but slid into negative territory after the official cash rate was raised by 25 basis points. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was trading 0.67% higher and China's bluechip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) was up 0.07%. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 4.4267% compared with a U.S. close of 4.456%. The repricing of higher rates began after strong U.S jobs growth in January, with employment rising 517,000, more than double economists expectations. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of major trading partner currencies, was down marginally at 103.45 from its U.S. trading levels.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) bounced slightly 0.4%, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild losses. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) opened up 0.68% and China's bluechip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) was 0.3% higher in early trade. The repricing of higher rates began after strong U.S jobs growth in January, with employment rising 517,000, more than double economists expectations. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of major trading partner currencies, was down marginally at 103.47 from its U.S. trading levels. Gold was slightly higher.
Tech shares took a beating in Thursday's after-hours trading, with shares of Apple, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet all tumbling. That took the shine off a strong regular trading session on Thursday, when the S&P (.SPX) climbed 1.5% and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) surged 3.3%. In the currency markets, the euro extended losses to $1.0891, pulling further away from the ten-month top of $1.1033 touched on Thursday. The sterling fell to $1.2206 on Friday, the lowest in more than two weeks, after tumbling 1.2% the previous session. That helped the U.S. dollar to recoup most of its post-Fed losses, with the dollar index now standing at 101.81, away from its nine-month low of 100.80.
Asian shares jump, dollar eases after Powell comments
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.84% higher, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.37%. In the currency market, the dollar spiked lower following Powell's remarks, with the U.S. dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, falling to a fresh nine-month low of 100.80. The yen strengthened 0.22% to 128.65 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2372, down 0.03% on the day. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes was up 1.5 basis point to 3.413%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was up 1.3 basis point to 3.563%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 0.2 basis point at 4.108%.
JPMorgan named five stocks it recommends to buy amid an expected rise in the broader Chinese stock market during February. The investment bank said it "remains bullish" on Macao casino operator Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment , and Hong Kong retail landlords Wharf REIC , LINK and Fortune REIT . Strategists at the Wall Street bank attributed last week's sell-off in Hong Kong listed shares as profit-taking by some investors. They also said the broader market rotate into "quality laggards in consumption as well as value cyclical and growth spaces." However, JPMorgan's Kim said analysts' expectations are due to jump higher on the positive data points.
[1/2] Men walk past an electric board displaying Nikkei and other countries' indexes outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan January 16, 2023. After $14 trillion was wiped off world shares in 2022, $4 trillion has been added back this month. "Markets are in this Goldilocks-scenario of OK growth, slowing inflation and softer monetary policy," said Richard Dias, founder of London-based investment consultancy Acorn Macro. Major central banks have added almost 3,000 basis points to global borrowing costs in this tightening cycle to date. "We've had a monumental rally in government bonds based on expectations we've reached the peak in interest rates," he said.
Asian stocks edge down as investors eye central bank hikes
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Julie Zhu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Interest rate announcements are due on Thursday from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank - and both are expected to hike rates by 50 bps. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis , were down 0.06%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 0.8% to 33,717.09, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 1.3% to 4,017.77 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 2.0% to 11,393.81. Despite Monday's declines, the S&P 500 remained on track to post its biggest January gain since 2019. In the energy market, oil prices fell ahead of the expected hikes by central banks and signals of strong Russian exports.
Asian stocks slip as investors eye central bank hikes
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Julie Zhu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Jan 31 (Reuters) - Asian shares traded cautiously and bonds nursed small losses on Tuesday as investors braced for an eventful week that includes central bank meetings, a slew of earnings reports and key U.S. economic data. Rate announcements are due on Thursday from both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank - and both are expected to hike rates by 50 bps. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis , rose 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 0.8% to 33,717.09, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 1.3% to 4,017.77 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 2.0% to 11,393.81. Despite Monday's declines, the S&P 500 remained on track to post its biggest January gain since 2019.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose as much as 0.55% to hit an almost nine-month high of 562.10, and was last at 559.39. The index, which fell nearly 20% last year, is up nearly 11% so far this month and is on course for its best-ever January performance. European stock futures indicated that stocks were set to rise, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.3%, German DAX futures 0.28% ahead and FTSE futures up 0.16%. Oil prices rose on expectations of a boost to demand from China's reopening and after the strong U.S. data. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.41% to $81.34 per barrel and Brent was at $87.83, also up 0.41% on the day.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose as much as 0.55% to hit an almost nine-month high of 562.10. European stock futures indicated that stocks were set to rise, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.31%, German DAX futures 0.28% ahead and FTSE futures up 0.17%. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six other peers, rose 0.12%, with the euro down 0.11% to $1.0877. Oil prices rose on expectations of a boost to demand from China's reopening and after the strong U.S. data. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.33% to $81.28 per barrel and Brent was at $87.75, up 0.32% on the day.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.53% to almost nine-month highs of 561.99. Thursday's set of data has raised investor hopes of a soft landing - a scenario in which inflation eases against a backdrop of slowing but resilient economic growth. Futures are pricing a 94.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike next Wednesday and see the Fed's overnight rate at 4.45% by next December, or lower than the 5.1% rate Fed officials have projected into next year. Data on U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) due at 1330 GMT will provide further clues on inflation. Oil prices rose on expectations of a boost to demand from China's reopening and after the strong U.S. data.
HONG KONG, Jan 27 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s first big vacation of 2023 offers shallow relief to investors. Passenger car sales dropped 21% from the same festive period last year, per Nomura analysts, and real estate keeps plunging. Central bankers terrified that China’s reopening will fuel more global inflation will be relieved. Chinese consumers enjoyed their holiday but there was little sign of dramatic “revenge consumption.” Scarred consumers have too many reasons to avoid splurging for the foreseeable future. The opinions expressed are her own)Follow @ywchen1 on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSMainland China’s Lunar New Year holiday runs from Jan. 21 to Jan. 27 in 2023.
Oil prices were steady after U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected, while gold hit a 9-month peak. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) climbed 1.1% and was set for its fifth straight day of gains. The report could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Fed's jumbo rate hikes kick in. Oil prices were steady after U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected. Gold prices touched a nine-month high, with spot gold at $1,941 per ounce, after hitting $1,949.09 earlier in the day.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) climbed 0.9% to 557.65 and was set for its fifth straight day of gains. Trading was thin on Thursday with Australia closed for a holiday and certain parts of Asia, including China, still away for the Lunar New Year. Investor attention will also be on the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings due next week, with traders looking for clues as to when the central banks are likely to turn dovish. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.09% to $80.22 per barrel, while Brent was at $86.05, down 0.08% on the day. Gold prices touched a nine-month high, with spot gold at $1,945.55 per ounce, after hitting $1,949.09 earlier in the day.
SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Asian equities rose to a fresh seven-month high on Thursday, with Hong Kong shares playing catch-up to other markets' gains as trade resumed after its three-day Lunar New Holiday. read moreInvestor attention will also be on the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings due next week, with traders looking for clues as to when the central banks are likely to turn dovish. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 1.7 basis points at 3.445%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 2.2 basis points at 3.602%. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes , seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -68.8 basis points. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was down 0.6 basis points at 4.131%.
U.S. Treasury yields remained elevated in Tokyo after bouncing off four-month lows overnight. Asian markets showed some resilience despite a selloff on Wall Street overnight, with the S&P 500 (.SPX) losing 0.76%. Worries about more Fed tightening were heightened by robust U.S. employment data and fresh hawkish rhetoric from central bank officials. The market bets the policy rate will been just below 5% in June, implying just over 50 basis points of additional tightening. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was around 3.4% after bouncing off the lowest since mid-September at 3.321% overnight.
LONDON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Investors poured a record $12.7 billion into emerging-market debt and equity funds in the week to Wednesday, in response to China's easing of its COVID-19 restrictions on activity, data on Friday from BofA Global Research showed. The sudden shift in Chinese policy has boosted many different asset classes, from commodities and mining stocks to currencies and equity markets in popular tourist destinations. The BofA data also showed weekly flows of $14.4 billion into bond funds, $7.5 billion into equities, $0.6 billion into cash and $0.6 billion from gold. BofA said there were $0.2 billion of inflows to European stock funds, the first inflows in 49 weeks. BofA's "Bull & Bear indicator" is at 3.5, a 10-month high driven by the inflows into emerging markets.
Law enforcement agencies have routinely accessed the vast trove of money transfer records without court oversight, Wyden said. The TRAC database was created as part of a 2014 money laundering settlement between the Arizona attorney general's office and Western Union (WU.N). The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, DHS and Arizona attorney general's office have all asked for data from money transfer companies and directed them to send data to TRAC, Wyden said. Western Union, MoneyGram International (MGI.O), Viamericas Corp, and Euronet Worldwide (EEFT.O) are among the companies that have shared customer data with TRAC in bulk, he added. Wyden announced in March that HSI issued custom summonses, a type of subpoena, for millions of money transfer records between Mexican residents and people living in four U.S. states.
SummarySummary Companies Asian shares mixed; Nikkei up 0.6%Markets eye change to yield policy from BOJ meeting on WedJapan yields retreat from policy cap; Yen eases from 7-mth highOil extend gains on China optimismSYDNEY, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Asian shares were mixed on Wednesday while Japanese yields hugged a policy cap, with markets anxiously awaiting a pivotal Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting that could see the world's third largest economy shift away from decades of ultra-low interest rates. In early Wednesday trade, however, the 10-year yield fell to 0.485% before returning to 0.5%. China's blue chips (.CSI300) rose 0.2%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) was 0.2% lower. It has been undermined by falling U.S. bond yields as markets wager the Federal Reserve can be less aggressive in hiking rates. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose slightly to 3.5402% from its U.S. close of 3.535%, partly in anticipation of the BOJ tweaking its policy.
read moreThe 10-year yield stayed at 0.5100% on Wednesday. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. Mahjabeen Zaman, head of FX Research at ANZ, now expects any further rises in the Japanese yen might have to be delayed until April when the new BOJ governor assumes position. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. After Bank of Japan decision, the dollar strengthened 2.4% to 131.18 yen , pulling away from Monday's seven-month low of 127.21 yen.
Asia shares slip ahead of expected weak China economic data
  + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
HONG KONG, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Asia shares mostly slipped on Tuesday ahead of Beijing's expected release of weak fourth-quarter economic data, although investor sentiment about China's rebound remained positive even as the global economy edges closer to recession. MSCI's gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.18% at 0127 GMT. "I think investors will look through the Q4 GDP prints and focus on 2023," said Redmond Wong, Greater China market strategist at Saxo Markets Hong Kong. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) opened down 0.3% while China's benchmark CSI300 Index (.CSI300) remained flat. Reporting by Kane Wu in Hong Kong; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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