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A few facts worth considering:By the time the 2009 revisions came out (824,000 jobs were overstated), the National Bureau of Economic Research had already declared a recession six months earlier. (It would subsequently be revised higher in the two of those quarters, one of which was revised higher to show growth, rather than contraction. As a signal that job growth has been overstated by an average of 68,000 per month during the revision period, it is more or less accurate. In the cutting process, the Fed will follow growth and jobs data more closely, just as it monitored inflation data more closely in the hiking process. The jobs data could be subject to noise from immigrant hiring and can be volatile.
Persons: payrolls, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Amerant, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman Locations: Florida, Sunrise , Florida
The U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the 12-month period through March 2024, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Wall Street had been waiting for the revisions numbers, with many economists expecting a sizeable reduction in the originally reported figures. "The labor market appears weaker than originally reported," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. "A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight both sides of the dual mandate and investors should expect the Fed to prepare markets for a cut at the September meeting." Nonfarm payroll jobs totaled 158.7 million through July, an increase of 1.6% from the same month in 2023.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Jared Bernstein, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal Reserve, LPL, Goldman Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Wall Street's enthusiastic reaction Tuesday to solid earnings from Palo Alto Networks reinforced our belief that the cybersecurity stock is getting overextended. However, that doesn't mean he's any less bullish on Palo Alto in the long run. PANW YTD mountain Palo Alto Networks YTD Wall Street analysts echoed our bullish sentiments. At least two dozen research firms — including Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs — raised their price targets on Palo Alto, according to FactSet data. To be sure, not everyone on Wall Street is convinced that Palo Alto has significant growth ahead.
Persons: clawing, Jim Cramer, Jim, management's, billings, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs —, Palo, Nikesh Arora, Arora, Morgan Staley, Jim Cramer's, Alfred Dunhill, David Cannon Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Palo Alto, Club, JPMorgan, Management, Palo, UBS, CNBC, Getty Locations: Palo Alto, Palo, Wells, Wells Fargo, United States, St Andrews, Scotland
Read previewGetting a job at Goldman Sachs is even harder than Havard, according to its CEO. In an episode of "The David Rubenstein Show," CEO David Solomon revealed that of over 300,000 applications last year for entry-level jobs out of undergraduate university, the bank hired around 2,500 people — less than 1%. AdvertisementWhile he listed off more classic desirable traits — people who are hardworking, smart, and "believe in excellence" — Solomon emphasized tenacity. In a letter to their 2024 summer internship cohort, Solomon advised them to "embrace your unique skills and experiences." AdvertisementThe investment bank received a record-breaking 315,126 applications for its 2024 internship program, admitting only 2,700 spots — slightly less than 0.9%.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Havard, David Rubenstein, David Solomon, Solomon, — Solomon, Rubenstein, Goldman, Robbie Stankard Organizations: Service, Business, Colombia University
Read previewSerial liar and former US congressman George Santos pleaded guilty to criminal charges in court Monday, avoiding a criminal trial. Santos ultimately pleaded guilty on Monday to two counts — one count of wire fraud and one count of identity theft — as part of a plea agreement. Advertisement"You trusted me to represent you with honor and to uphold the values that are central to our democracy," Santos told reporters outside court after the hearing. Related storiesCourt filings previously indicated Santos was in talks for a plea deal as early as December. Two associates of Santos — Nancy Marks and Sam Miele — have previously pleaded guilty to fraud charges against them and would have likely testified in Santos' trial.
Persons: , George Santos, Santos, Joann Seybert, Seybert, Breon, I've, Goldman Sachs, Hannah Montana, Zack, Cody, Tom Williams, Ferragamo, Santos — Nancy Marks, Sam Miele —, Tom Suozzi, Jimmy Kimmel Organizations: Service, Business, Eastern, of, Republican, The New York Times, Citigroup, Baruch College, New York University, Disney Channel, U.S . Capitol, Inc, Getty, Congress Locations: of New York, New York, Long, Queens, The, Brazil, Eastern, OnlyFans, Hermes, United States, New
Read previewIn addition to its suite of consumer-facing AI offerings like Meta AI, Facebook's parent company also has its an internal tool for employees. She said she uses the tool "all the time for efficiency gains," — and companies that don't have their own internal AI tool are "already behind the curve." Any sizable company operating without an internal AI tool is already behind the curve. The company's internal AI tool, which is called VaultBot, answers "around 32% of all engineering questions," according to a company announcement from January. Other big tech giants are also developing internal AI tools alongside consumer-facing products.
Persons: , Alex Heath, Mark Zuckerberg's, Heath, Esther Crawford, that’s, Esther Crawford ✨, Crawford, Kaz Nejatian, EY, PwC, Banks, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Business, Elon, Twitter, Meta, KPMG, McKinsey, QuantumBlack, JPMorgan, OpenAI, Bain & Company Locations: Meta
Goldman Sachs has cut its probability forecast for a U.S. recession to 20% shortly after raising it, as fresh labor market data sparked a reassessment of market views on the economy. Economists at Goldman earlier this month raised their 12-month U.S. recession probability from 15% to 25% after the U.S. July jobs report of Aug. 2 showed nonfarm payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 114,000. That was down from the downwardly revised 179,000 of June and below the Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The report triggered widespread concerns about the world's largest economy, and contributed to the sharp — but ultimately brief — stock market sell-off at the start of the month. Goldman initially cited this as a reason for hiking the probability of an economic downturn — but changed tack on Saturday, when it wrote in a note that it saw the odds down to 20% because data released since Aug. 2 showed "no sign of a recession."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, nonfarm payrolls, Dow Jones, Goldman Organizations: Goldman, U.S Locations: U.S
Goldman Sachs went big in the quarter, while rival Morgan Stanley trimmed its crypto holdings. In the period from March through June, Goldman Sachs made its debut in the crypto ETF market, purchasing $418 million worth of bitcoin funds. Up to this point, wealth management businesses have only facilitated trades if customers requested exposure to the new spot crypto funds. The vast majority of the bank's spot bitcoin holdings are now through the iShares trust. HSBC has nearly $3.6 million worth of spot bitcoin holdings, all from the fund issued by Ark 21Shares, UBS has around $300,000 worth of spot bitcoin ETF holdings, and Bank of America has collective holdings of around $5.3 million, mostly from BlackRock and Fidelity.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, JP Morgan, Ark 21Shares Organizations: SEC, Wall, JPMorgan, Securities and Exchange Commission, Fidelity, BlackRock, HSBC, UBS, Bank of America Locations: BlackRock's, Grayscale's, BlackRock
Stifel upgrades Starbucks to buy from hold Stifel upgraded the coffee chain following the management shakeup that included a new CEO. Jefferies upgrades Sportradar to buy from hold Jefferies upgraded the Swiss global sports tech company, saying it's becoming "increasingly attractive." Morgan Stanley reiterates Target as overweight Morgan Stanley said it's sticking with its overweight rating heading into Target 's earnings next week. Berenberg reiterates Eli Lilly as buy Berenberg raised its price target on the drugmaker to $1,050 per share from $1,000. TD Cowen upgrades Ilumina to buy from hold TD Cowen sees revenue growth ahead for the biotech company.
Persons: Wolfe, PulteGroup, rais, Brian Niccol, Baird, Tesla, it's bullish, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Elliott, Wells, Equitrans, ETRN, Jefferies, it's, SRAD, Bernstein, Chipotle, Morgan Stanley, Berenberg, Eli Lilly, Lilly, circumspection, Ross, BURL, ROST, Oppenheimer, TD Cowen, mgmt Organizations: Stifel, RBC, Johnson, underperform RBC, Elliott Management, Barclays, Nvidia, JPMorgan downgrades Emerson, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, Ball Corp, Ball Corporation, Montrose Environmental, Stock, Intuit, Citi, Palo Alto, Bank of America, TJX Companies, Argus Locations: Florida, Underperform, Swiss, Montrose, QuickBooks, Burlington, Coinbase, China, Hershey
Read previewThe labor market is trending in the wrong direction, but it might not be time to sound the alarm just yet. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months and at 4.3%, it's the highest it's been in nearly three years. However, there are some reasons it might be too soon to freak out about the labor market. AdvertisementSatyam Panday, chief US economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a note published on August 6 that the slowing labor market appears to suggest a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an "economy that's about to slip into a recession." The labor market might get worseTo be sure, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about the state of the labor market.
Persons: , there's, it's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Manuel Abecasis, they've, It's, Goldman Sachs that's, Satyam Panday, Michael Gapen, JP Morgan, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Federal, Satyam, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, New Century Advisors Locations: US
In today's big story, it's out with the old and in with the new CEO at Starbucks. Starbucks announced CEO Laxman Narasimhan was stepping down after less than two years on the job . Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol was tapped to lead Starbucks' turnaround efforts. In the release announcing the news , Howard Schultz, Starbucks' chairman emeritus and three-time CEO, made no mention of Narasimhan in his statement. At Starbucks, Niccol won't need to navigate a brand crisis like he did with Chipotle in the wake of its E. coli outbreak.
Persons: , he's Benjamin Button'd, Chelsea Jia Feng, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, it's, Grace Dean, Howard Schultz, Narasimhan, Ryan Miller, Rebecca Zisser, Alex Bitter, It's, we've, Katie Notopoulos, Tyler Le, Joe Quinlan, Berkshire Hathaway, Goldman Sachs, Greg Tuorto, Josh Edelson, Justin Sullivan, Timo Lenzen, Mercedes, unmotivated, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock Organizations: Service, Starbucks, Business, Elliott Management, Orange County Museum of Art, Taco Bell, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Getty, BI, Benz, Mercedes, Dolce, Gabbana, Walmart, Walgreens, Cisco Systems, UBS Locations: Chelsea, Narasimhan, Mexican, Berkshire, AFP, Dubai, Miami, New York, London
Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Tuesday: Wells Fargo initiates Rollins as overweight Wells says it's bullish on shares of the pest control company. Goldman Sachs reiterates Disney as buy Goldman said it's sticking with its buy rating following Disney's biennial D23 fan event in California. " Wells Fargo initiates ITeos Therapeutics at overweight Wells said in its initiation of coverage into ITeos that the biotech company has multiple catalysts ahead. Bank of America reiterates Lyft as buy The bank said the ride sharing company is trading at a "significant discount." Wells Fargo reiterates Home Depot as overweight Wells says investors should buy the dip in Home Depot shares following earnings Tuesday morning.
Persons: Wells, Rollins, it's bullish, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bernstein, WBD, BTIG, Eli Lilly, Stifel, Lyft Organizations: Wells Fargo, Disney, UBS, JPMorgan, Netflix, Mizuho, Palo Alto, Barclays, Dell, DELL, Citi, Sales, Warner Brothers Discovery, ITeos, " Bank of America, Bank of America, Co, McCormick &, Depot, Amazon Locations: California, Turkey
To start, the major funds that are marketed as "low volatility" or "minimum volatility" have been living up to the label. JPMorgan Asset Management has been a leader in this area, with Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI) and Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPQ) now holding more than $48 billion in combined assets, according to FactSet. Another area is preferred stock funds. The biggest preferred stock ETF, the iShares Preferred & Income Securities ETF (PFF) , has gained 0.5% in the third quarter, though it has dipped 1.4% over the past month. "And those call features of a growing part of the preferred market has also helped in terms of the rate volatility and the impact."
Persons: Robert Hum, It's, it's, Hum, Yang Tang, John Burrello, Gary Kessler, Dodd Frank, Kessler Organizations: Trust, JPMorgan Asset Management, Nasdaq Equity, Nasdaq, Income Securities ETF, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Preferred, Hybrid Securities, Federal Reserve Locations: BlackRock
Correction in Japanese bank stocks is 'overdone': Goldman Sachs
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCorrection in Japanese bank stocks is 'overdone': Goldman SachsMakoto Kuroda of Goldman Sachs says Japanese banks are trading at levels where the risk of a U.S. recession is "already priced in".
Persons: Goldman Sachs Makoto Kuroda, Goldman Sachs Locations: U.S
During the sell-off, strategists at Goldman Sachs recommended buying the dip in US stocks, albeit carefully, as they reiterated their year-end S&P 500 price target of 5,600. Economically sensitive stocks have lagged defensives by at least 5 percentage points in a single week 12 times since 2000, according to Goldman Sachs. "Despite the weak jobs report, our economists believe continued economic expansion is far more likely than recession," Kostin wrote. Goldman Sachs found that those micro factors explained 86% of stock returns in the first half of 2024, versus the long-term average of 57%. Fewer worries about the near-term economic outlook mean stocks will no longer trade in lockstep — a win for active investors.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, abate, lockstep — Organizations: Service, Goldman, Business, Institute of Supply, Walmart Locations: Japan, lockstep, Monday's
Read previewAfter over two years of underperformance, it seems like small-cap stocks are finally poised to take off. Because there is such a wide variety of small-cap companies, Tuorto believes investors have to do some digging to identify the best opportunities. Some of the best opportunities are way, way down in cap. Healthy small-cap companies have a clear path to profitability and reinvest cash back into their business to drive growth, he said. Tuorto's top small-cap picksBelow are Tuorto's top six picks for high-quality small-cap companies with strong fundamentals and market caps under $10 billion.
Persons: , Russell, Greg Tuorto, Tuorto, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Business, Big Tech, Nvidia, Core Equity ETF
Ducommun 's growth and profit margin potential make the stock hard to ignore, according to Goldman Sachs. Analysts led by Noah Poponak upgraded the small cap aerospace stock to buy from neutral. Goldman called the company an "acquisition compounder opportunity" within the aerospace and defense sector ever since current management took the helm in 2017. Goldman was the lead joint bookrunner for Ducommun's last sale of stock in May 2023. Ducommun shares rose more than 8% in early trading on Tuesday.
Persons: Ducommun, Goldman Sachs, Noah Poponak, Poponak, Goldman Organizations: Triumph Locations: Monday's
Last week, three online banks cut their 1-year CD rates, according to BTIG. Meanwhile, Synchrony slashed its online savings rate by 10 basis points to 4.65%. "We believe online banks are intentionally trying to shift customers toward savings rates, which are floating, over term rates," he said. The annualized seven-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is 5.11%, as of Monday. With both high-yield savings and money market funds, the rates can fluctuate.
Persons: Marcus, Goldman Sachs, Sallie Mae, Synchrony, Jerome Powell, Vincent Caintic, Christine Benz, Benz, Winnie Sun, Cathy Curtis, Curtis Organizations: Federal, Morningstar, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Sun, Wealth Partners, CNBC, Money, Curtis Financial, Treasury Locations: Capital
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe risks for oil are skewed to the downside next year, says Goldman Sachs' Daan StruyvenDaan Struyven, Goldman Sachs head of oil research, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the energy market volatility, impact of geopolitical tensions on the energy sector,
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Daan, Daan Struyven
In a note on Aug. 7, Goldman's analysts revealed a number of top picks, including three buy-rated Japanese stocks with over 40% upside potential over the next 12 months. Year-to-date, Asics shares are up 99.5%. Goldman has a target price of 3,100 Japanese Yen ($21.07) on the stock, giving it around 50% upside potential at the time of the note. Goldman has a target price of 6,900 Japanese Yen on the stock, or 37% potential upside. Goldman has a target price of 4,850 Japanese Yen on the stock, giving it around 54% upside potential at the time of the bank's note.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, U.S . Asics Corporation Goldman, Sho Kawano, Asics, Goldman, Suntory Beverage & Food Goldman, Takashi Miyazaki, Miyazaki, Ryo Harada, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, U.S . Asics Corporation, Asics Corp, Suntory Beverage & Food, Asia Pacific, Suntory, Yen, Hitachi Locations: U.S, Japan, Europe, Asia
"If economic fears continue to fade and the market becomes more micro-driven in coming months, then the recent sell-off represents an attractive opportunity to buy stocks with healthy fundamentals at valuation discounts," wrote Goldman chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin and team in a note to clients Friday. Goldman screened for stocks that have seen their earnings estimates ratchet up since the start of the third quarter, but posted weak relative returns during the last week. Goldman noted that cyclical stocks underperformed defensive names last week, showing that "macro" is driving equity returns. Once investors' focus returns to normal, stocks with strong fundamentals and valuations like those on this list will start to benefit, the firm argues. "If the data confirm our economists' optimistic view, investors will likely pivot back to focusing on alpha opportunities rather than market betas."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Goldman, Micron, Systems
While keeping his outperform rating, Vijay Rakesh chopped $10 off his price target to $145. The Oreo maker should see above-average earnings growth, Jordan said, and the stock itself is a high-quality core holding. — Alex Harring 5:50 a.m.: UBS lays out earnings expectations for Nvidia UBS is remaining bullish on Nvidia heading into the artificial intelligence giant's earnings report. Analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated his buy rating and $150 price target heading into earnings expected later this month. His price target of $23, up from $20, implies a gain of 28.3% over the next 12 months.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Vijay Rakesh, Rakesh, Alex Harring, Shaun Kelley, Kelley, — Alex Harring, Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's, James Shin, Shin, Jefferies, Samad Samana, Samana, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Mills, Leah Jordan, Jordan, Kraft Heinz, Timothy Arcuri, Arcuri, Patrick Moley, Morley, HOOD, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, UBS, Mizuho, Micron, Seagate Technology, Western, Bank of America, Gaming, Consumer, Terre Haute, Kentucky Derby, Deutsche Bank, Par Technology, Jefferies, Conagra Brands, Hershey, Nvidia UBS, Nvidia Locations: Churchill, Northern, Northern Virginia, Kentucky, Robinhood
Bank of America offered four reasons why investors are worrying too much about high AI spending. Investors can look forward to fresh catalysts ahead, such as Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell AI product, the bank said. Second, AI spending is focused on more than just creating new revenue streams. For instance, these expenditures help tech firms maintain social or e-commerce dominance, or protect their reign over the online search sector. "Concerns about the return on investment (ROI) on high AI capex is valid but premature and inconclusive in our view," the bank wrote.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs Organizations: of America, Blackwell, Service, Bank of America, 5G, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Apple
Here are Monday's biggest calls on Wall Street: UBS reiterates Nvidia as buy UBS said it's sticking with Nvidia shares heading into earnings later this month. Wolfe downgrades Qualcomm to peer perform from outperform Wolfe said Apple's internal modem use is finally having an effect on Qualcomm. Jefferies upgrades Par Technology to buy from hold Jefferies said it's bullish on shares of the "pure-play" restaurant tech platform. " Deutsche Bank upgrades Eli Lilly to buy from hold Deutsche upgraded the stock following earnings last week. Bank of America upgrades Churchill Downs to buy from neutral Bank of America said it likes the racing company's growth pipeline.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Disney, it's, Wolfe, Qualcomm, Wedbush, it's bullish, Jefferies, Walmart Evercore, Piper Sandler, Piper, HOOD, Goldman Sachs, Mills, Goldman, Canaccord, Mizuho, Cummins, Wells, PRU, Eli Lilly, Churchill, Jim Anderson Organizations: UBS, Nvidia, RBC, Ardent Health, Ardent Health Partners, Inc, Qualcomm, Jefferies, Technology, Walmart, HSBC, GE Vernova, GE, Micron, MU, Elliott, Bank of America, Liberty Global, underperform Bank of America, Liberty, Prudential, Allstate, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche, of America, " Bank of America Locations: Asia, Cupertino, Wells, Churchill
The deal will help improve Key's balance sheet, Jim Cramer said. Robinhood : Shares rose more than 4% after Piper Sandler upgraded the brokerage firm's stock to a buy rating. Prologis : Shares fell a little over 1% after Bank of America downgraded the stock to a hold rating. Qualcomm shares were down about 1% Monday. General Mills : Shares were slightly lower despite Goldman Sachs initiating coverage of the stock with a buy rating.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Piper Sandler, Cramer, Jim, I'm, General Mills, Goldman Sachs, Mills Organizations: CNBC, Club, Canada's Scotiabank, Bank of America, Qualcomm, Wolfe Research, Apple, Mondelez Locations: Cleveland
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