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☆ China's May Day holiday spending exceeds pre-pandemic levels for the first time
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —Holiday spending during China’s Golden Week has surged past pre-pandemic levels for the first time in three years, in a sign the country’s travelers have fully emerged from the depths of Covid-related restrictions and are eager to live large to make up for lost time. Alipay, the country’s biggest digital payment app, reported a 200% increase in online holiday spending from a year earlier. “The fact that domestic tourism spending is now back to 2019 levels suggests that the reopening boost to consumer spending has largely run its course,” said Capital Economics analysts in a Thursday report. “The swift recovery in in-person services has been the major driver of China’s post-Covid recovery this year,” they said. However, “the lackluster property recovery, a global slowdown and rising geopolitical conflict remain major challenges for China’s recovery to be sustained.”

☆ US private payrolls increase solidly; wage growth cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies Private payrolls increase by 296,000 in AprilPrior month's gain revised lower to 142,000WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. private employers boosted hiring in April amid strong demand for workers in the leisure and hospitality industry, but a slowdown in wage growth offered some good news for the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Private payrolls increased by 296,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would increase 148,000. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 160,000 jobs last month.

☆ Euro zone core inflation slows unexpectedly in April, blurring the picture for rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Headline inflation came in at 7% for last month, according to Eurostat, after it dropped to 6.9% in March. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 5.6% in April — from 5.7% in March. Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated a figure of 7% for headline inflation and 5.7% for core. Rather than providing some clarity on how much the central bank might raise rates by, the latest numbers have blurred the picture somewhat. Market players have been debating whether the central bank will hike Thursday by 50 or 25 basis points.

The case for investing in India — a nation of 1.4 billion — is clear, and only bolstered by recent geopolitical shifts. As Western leaders look to boost economic cooperation with countries that share similar values, India, the world’s largest democracy, stands to gain. Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty ImagesIndia’s so-called “demographic dividend,” the potential economic growth arising from a large working-age population, represents a major opportunity. A recent Air India order for more than 200 Boeing planes could support more than 1 million American jobs. One consistent with our democratic values, and another not.”‘Economic miracle?’Beyond geopolitics, India’s economic and demographic fundamentals are driving business interest.

"The German economy remained stuck in the mud at the start of 2023, only barely avoiding recession," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said. The German economy shrank by a revised 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, reviving fears of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. "A gradual recovery is underway, despite a persistently difficult environment," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the presentation of the forecasts. "The recent renaissance in industrial production could very well carry the economy through the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said. "However, we are afraid that looking into the second half of the year, the German economy will continue its flirtation with recession."

☆ U.S. dollar firms as inflation data backs Fed hike; yen plunges
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six major currencies, rose 0.2% to 101.65. Friday's data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index edged 0.1% higher in March after rising 0.3% in February. In the 12 months through March, the PCE price index increased 4.2% after climbing 5.1% in February. The so-called core PCE price index gained 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in March after rising 4.7% in February. Following the inflation data, the rate futures market has priced in a 90% chance of a 25 basis-point hike next week.

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ Bank of Canada rate-cut bets recede as core inflation proves sticky
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. The BoC has made greater progress in slowing inflation than some major peers, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Still, the rise in inflation expectations could be another reason for the Canadian central bank to be cautious about easing rates. The central bank has left its benchmark interest rate on hold for two straight meetings after lifting it to a 15-year high of 4.50%. Those rate hikes have contributed to inflation, by driving up mortgage borrowing costs, but the main aim is to slow the economy.

The country's IPCA-15 inflation index eased to a 30-month low of 4.16% from 5.36% in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Wednesday, coming in below market consensus of 4.20% in a Reuters poll of economists. The latest data comes a day after central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto ruled out an imminent interest rate cut, saying in a Senate hearing that the current rate was appropriate to address inflation concerns. "Will RCN and his team wait for current inflation to reach 3% before starting to cut interest rates?" William Jackson, Capital Economics' chief emerging markets economist, said he doubts policymakers will pivot to interest rate cuts imminently, considering that core inflation remains strong and the central bank has been striking a hawkish tone. "All told, the inflation picture continues to improve in Brazil," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia said.

☆ Brazil woos sceptical foreign investors with new fiscal plan
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Rebounding commodity prices and a hawkish, independent central bank made Brazil an emerging market investor darling last year. But stocks are in the red in dollar-terms (.MIBR00000PUS) in 2023 compared to small gains in wider emerging markets (.MSCIEF) and a more than 20% rise in Mexico's equities (.MIMX00000PUS). "It feels to me like there are a lot of things that can go wrong," said William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist with Capital Economics. Ronaldo Patah, chief investment officer Brazil at UBS Wealth Management, said that despite uncertainties, Lula's fiscal reform suggested he had shifted his focus to the future -- and away from unravelling previous reforms. "Foreign investors have goodwill for Brazil - they want to invest."

This comes as month-end approaches and investors look ahead to the U.S. central bank's May 2-3 policy meeting. The advance estimate of first-quarter U.S. GDP growth is out this week, and big tech earnings from Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are due. Tesla shares fell 13% last week after an earnings miss, the biggest fall in almost a year. Ueda has insisted that the current policy will remain in place for now, damping down prospects of a shift this week. The central bank's revised inflation and growth forecasts might also give a clue as to when it will tweak or abandon YCC.

☆ Rainy March dampens shopper spending in Britain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that sales volumes would fall by a monthly 0.5% after rising in January and February. Darren Morgan, director of economics at the Office for National Statistics, said the broader trend for retail sales was less subdued than the figures for March alone suggested. Retail sales volumes in March were 3.1% lower than a year earlier. "That said, even though the worst of the declines in retail sales are in the past, higher interest rates will restrain spending this year," he said. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates for the 12th consecutive meeting in May, taking Bank Rate to 4.5% from its current level of 4.25%.

☆ Oxford malaria vaccine rollout could have 'major' implications in sub-Saharan Africa, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The University of Oxford Jenner Institute, which developed the vaccine, estimates that malaria kills around 800,000 people per annum. These casualties occur predominantly in sub-Saharan Africa, where one in five childhood deaths is associated with the disease. The WHO assessed that 241 million clinical cases of malaria occurred in 2020, resulting in 627,000 deaths, mostly among children in Africa. A health worker vaccinates a child against malaria in Ndhiwa, Homabay County, western Kenya on September 13, 2019 during the launch of malaria vaccine in Kenya. Brian Ongoro | AFP | Getty ImagesIn 2021, the WHO signed off on GSK's RTS,S malaria vaccine for rollout across sub-Saharan Africa, following pilot programs in Ghana, Kenya and Malawi, which tracked 800,000 children since 2019.

German specialised property lenders such as Aareal Bank (ARLG.DE), Deutsche Pfandbriefbank (PBBG.DE) and Berlin Hyp, have a bigger concentration of real estate exposure, analysts added. Blackstone (BX.N) recently blocked withdrawals from its $70 billion real estate income trust after facing a flurry of redemption requests. Open-ended real estate funds in Britain have also battled to meet strong demand for redemptions. In Europe, CRE exposure for smaller banks, more at risk of deposit flight, is estimated at under 30% of all loans, Capital Economics said. "On the other, real estate owners themselves are going to face quite material increase in costs."

☆ Analysis: Why is UK inflation so high?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Annual consumer price inflation (CPI) in Britain fell to 10.1% last month but defied forecasts for a bigger drop from February's 10.4%, according to data published on Wednesday. "Inflation in the UK has risen further and stayed higher than elsewhere as the UK has experienced the worst of both worlds: a big energy shock like the euro zone and labour shortages - even worse than the U.S.," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics. British consumer energy prices were 79% higher in March than their level two years earlier, the biggest increase in western Europe. Britain's high rate of energy inflation reflects its heavy reliance on gas for power generation and home heating as well as the poor energy efficiency of its housing stock. But domestically generated price pressures are likely to slow the pace of decline in headline inflation.

JOHANNESBURG, April 19 (Reuters) - South African inflation rose for the second month in a row in March to 7.1% year on year, driven by a steep increase in food prices, data showed on Wednesday. Economists said the pickup in inflation, from 7.0% in February, meant the central bank would probably raise interest rates again next month. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has hiked interest rates nine times in a row since November 2021 to try to tame inflation. First National Bank senior economist Koketso Mano said it appeared that power constraints were exacerbating local food inflation. Consumer inflation rose to 1.0% month on month in March from 0.7% in February.

☆ UK inflation stays at 10% as bread rises at record clip. Here’s why it’s proving hard to beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —UK inflation remained above 10% in March, far higher than in the United States and Europe, as bread prices rose at a record pace. Energy an ‘Achilles’ heel’The United Kingdom is a net importer of energy, unlike the United States. UK inflation to fall sharplyThe good news is that UK inflation is expected to fall rapidly through the remainder of the year, as lower wholesale gas prices feed through to household energy bills. From April, “UK inflation might start to drop faster than in Europe,” he said. But core inflation could take longer to fall in the United Kingdom, according to Gregory of Capital Economics.

In February, over 150,000 Chinese tourists travelled to Thailand, the latest data from the Thai Ministry of Tourism show - a three year high but still 85% below February 2019 levels. Chinese tourists used to make up 10% of European arrivals from outside the continent. Flights to Europe are up to 80% more expensive than before the pandemic, according to ForwardKeys, a travel data firm. Chinese tourists making a comeback is crucial for regional economies. Reuters GraphicsPre-pandemic, China was Australia's top source of tourists, but numbers following Beijing's reopening of borders have only trickled back.

"I was previously considered wealthy in the area," said Liu, who also owns some commercial property in the northeastern city of Liaoyuan. In play now in China, where around 70% of household wealth is in property, this phenomenon is weighing on the post-pandemic recovery of household consumption, which Chinese policymakers have vowed to make a more prominent driver of economic growth. Capital Economics estimates net household wealth declined 4.3% overall last year, due to falling house and stock prices, the first decline since at least 2001. Indeed, deposits rose a further 9.9 trillion yuan in the first quarter of this year. ($1 = 6.8376 Chinese yuan renminbi)Additional reporting by Shuyan Wang; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fears mount that Europe's commercial real estate sector could be the next to blow
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are questioning the health of the commercial real estate sector following a string of recent banking crises. Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesConcerns are mounting around the health of Europe's commercial real estate market, with some investors questioning whether it could be the next sector to blow following last month's banking crisis. Analysts at Citi now see European real estate stocks falling by 20%-40% between 2023 and 2024 as the impact of higher interest plays out. In a worst-case scenario, the higher-risk commercial real estate sector could plummet 50% by next year, the bank said. Pere Vinolas Serra, chief executive of Spanish real estate company Inmobiliaria Colonial and chairman of the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA), said the situation in Europe looks paradoxically strong.

BEIJING, April 13 (Reuters) - China's exports unexpectedly surged in March, with officials flagging rising demand for electric vehicles, but analysts cautioned the improvement partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID-19 disruptions. Exports in March shot up 14.8% from a year ago, snapping five straight months of declines and stunning economists who predicted a 7.0% fall in a Reuters poll. "Sluggish external demand and geopolitical factors will bring greater challenges to China's trade development," he added. Factory surveys showed export orders falling in March, a contrast to more upbeat readings for the services sector, which has benefited from China's reopening. Reporting by Joe Cash and Ellen Zhang; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But swings in gasoline and other energy mask price pressures that, while easing, remain under the surface, economists said. "It's improving and the economy is cooling, but it's still far from tepid," Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said of inflation. What drove inflation in March 2023Housing was a "notable" inflation driver in March and over the past year, according to the BLS. The shelter index increased 8.2% in the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in consumer prices after stripping out the volatile energy and food categories. "It signals the food inflation fever has been broken," Zandi said.

☆ China's consumer, factory prices skid as demand falters
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangIn contrast to surging prices globally, China’s retail and producer inflation has remained anaemic as the consumer and industrial sectors struggle to recover from their pandemic hit. Analysts now think consumer inflation could fall short of Beijing’s official targets this year. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 1.4%. GRAPHIC: China's inflation skids, hereFALLING SHORTThe government has set a target for average consumer prices in 2023 to be about 3%. “We think consumer price inflation will rebound in the coming months as the labour market tightens again and will peak at 2.3% in early 2024,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics.

☆ American offices are half-empty. That could be the next big risk for banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

“I’m more concerned than I’ve been in a long time,” said Matt Anderson, managing director at Trepp, which provides data on commercial real estate. About $270 billion in commercial real estate loans held by banks will come due in 2023, according to Trepp. Questions about the health of banks with sizable exposures to commercial real estate loans cause customers to pull deposits. That forces lenders to demand repayment — exacerbating the sector’s downturn and further damaging the banks’ financial position. The likeliest outcome is thought to be an uptick in defaults and reduced access to funding for the commercial real estate industry.

☆ Central Europe's policymakers double down on hawkish message
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Jan Lopatka | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As central Europe's central banks were faster than their major peers to hike rates, they had also been expected to lead the way in easing. That message was underlined on Thursday when February data showed industrial wage growth in the double digits. "We do not expect a rate hike," it said after the Czech policy meeting last week. CEE inflation pushing past a peakThe Polish central bank also struck somewhat hawkish tones at its news conference on Thursday after holding rates steady. Romania's central bank left rates unchanged on Tuesday and said inflation may come down faster than previously thought.

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