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BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s embattled property sector made new progress in its climb out of a months-long slump as official data on Wednesday showed much narrower declines in home sales, developer investment and construction starts in January-February. Property investment by developers fell 5.7% in January-February, improving from a 12% slump in December and a 10% decline for the entire 2022. Analysts expect property sales to be the first indicator to turn positive soon and see property investment rebounding in the second half of 2023. “The figures are a good start to the recovery of the property market for 2023, and will further boost confidence,” said Yan Yuejin, analyst at the E-house China Research and Development Institution in Shanghai. At the beginning of the annual meeting of China’s parliament this month, the government made guarding against risks to top property developers one of its top priorities this year, but added that it would prevent disorderly expansion by developers.
REUTERS/Tingshu WangProperty investment in the January-February period fell again as home buyers and developers remained cautious despite a slew of supportive government policies. The reading accelerated from a 1.3% annual rise in December. The mixed data portrayed an uneven recovery in economic activity following China’s abrupt abandonment late last year of its three-year-long campaign to control COVID-19. Within January-February fixed-asset investment, infrastructure investment surged 9.0% from a year before. China has set a modest annual growth target of around 5% this year after significantly missing its target for 2022 and recording one of its worst showings in nearly half a century.
Hong Kong CNN —China’s economic recovery appears to be on track as it gradually emerges from three years of its strict zero-Covid policy. But rising youth unemployment underscores the tough challenges ahead for the new government to achieve its economic targets and maintain social stability. “The economic data released today confirmed the recovery in China was well on track,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. Recent PMI figures had indicated a strong recovery in China’s economic activity, with February’s factory output from large, state-owned enterprises hitting the highest level in more than a decade. A large number of employment seekers line up outside a job fair in Nanning, Guangxi province on February 18, 2023.
That could mark a significant change in the international travel market, to which Chinese tourists are outsized contributors. In the first half of that year alone, their outbound travel spend surpassed $127.5 billion, a study from Chinese travel booking site Ctrip.com found. Chinese outbound travel is forecast to recover around two-thirds of its pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Leopatrizi | E+ | Getty ImagesBecause of those shortcomings, countries that can accommodate Chinese travelers' shifting needs have emerged as clear winners. Thailand, for instance, offers visas-on-arrival to fully vaccinated Chinese tourists who have travel insurance.
BEIJING, March 14 (Reuters) - China will carefully implement state institutional reforms and ensure orderly operations, state media reported, citing the first cabinet meeting chaired by the new premier Li Qiang on Tuesday. The institutional reforms remain "a major political task at present" and China will make sure that all the work is carried out normally, state media reported, citing comments from the meeting. "The institutional reforms should be taken as an opportunity to adapt to the needs of building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development." Analysts and investors said the new financial watchdog, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, will help bridge regulatory gaps, but it may also consolidate power at the top and could introduce more state and party intervention. (This story has been refiled to say 'China' and not 'Chinese' in the headline)Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao, editing by Ed OsmondOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Economy Week Ahead: U.S. Inflation and Retail Sales in Focus
  + stars: | 2023-03-12 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Consumer prices in January reflected a slight cooling of still-high inflation. TuesdayThe Labor Department releases its February consumer-price index, a closely watched measure of what consumers pay for goods and services. Consumer prices rose 6.4% in January from a year earlier, reflecting a slight cooling of still-high inflation. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases January and February figures on industrial production, retail sales and fixed-asset investment, a measure of infrastructure and equipment investing.
Summary Feb consumer inflation slowedFeb producer deflation deepenedBEIJING, March 9 (Reuters) - China's annual consumer inflation slowed down in February as consumers remained cautious despite the abandonment of strong pandemic controls late last year, official data showed on Thursday. The CPI, which is seasonally adjusted, fell 0.5% from a month earlier, missing the forecast of 0.2% gain. Annual producer deflation deepened last month. Economists say China will nonetheless see upward pressure on consumer prices in coming months, mostly thanks to the end of efforts to suppress COVID-19. Core annual inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was 0.6% in February, compared with January's 1.0%, reflecting persistently weak domestic demand.
Confinement care is not new in China, where the practice of one month confinement post-birth, which traditionally included strict rules around bathing, hair washing and teeth brushing for mothers, has long been the norm. What is different today is the professionalism and expectations of those doing the caring, says Jiang Lei, a teacher at the centre. "We need professionals to do professional things for professional people," Jiang added, explaining that the centre teaches "scientific feeding knowledge, sleep cultivation and other knowledge such as early childhood education". The experience of caring for her own child made the idea of a career in childcare attractive, she said. ($1 = 6.9045 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Casey Hall; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Imports dropped, too, government data showed on Tuesday, also partly reflecting weak foreign demand, since the country brings in parts and materials from abroad for many of its exports. Exports in the two months were 6.8% lower than a year before, after a 9.9% annual fall seen in December. "Given the high inflation in the U.S. and Europe, demand from there should keep weakening, which also dampens the processing demand in China," said Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on Thursday cautioned that downward pressure on China's imports and exports would increase significantly this year, because of the risk of a global recession and weakening external demand. China's January-February imports of crude oil were down 1.3% on the same period last year, while imports of natural gas fell by 9.4%.
China leans on coal amid energy security push
  + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Andrew Hayley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Soaring global energy prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and domestic supply disruption have prompted Beijing to step up its focus on energy security in recent years. Fluctuating output from renewable plants, however, has led policymakers to lean on reliable and easily dispatchable coal power to shore up the country's baseload supply. "The energy security narrative is still going strong," said Greenpeace China policy advisor Li Shuo. Concerned about supply shortages amid high global prices, the planner pledged to "strictly control the expansion of projects to replace coal with natural gas". "(We shall) develop sound mechanisms to adjust urban end-user prices of natural gas in step with procurement costs," the report said.
The country's National Bureau of Statistics reported China's population slipped to 1.412 billion last year from 1.413 billion in 2021. Many experts believe that China's one-child policy, introduced in the 1980s, is one of the main reasons for the population decline. "China's one-child policy was a mistake," said Yi Fuxian, an expert on Chinese population trends at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "What's happening in the bedrooms in China is actually affecting what's happening in the rest of the world." Watch the video above to find out what caused China's population decline and how the shrinking population could alter the global economy.
European markets were on course to open higher Friday, extending the previous session's gains as investors take stock of the slew of economic data published this week. Across Europe, inflation data came in hotter than expected. A flash estimate for the euro zone showed headline inflation eased from 8.6% to 8.5%, but this was above a consensus estimate; while core inflation rose from 5.3% to 5.6%. However, in a separate speech, Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller raised the possibility of a higher terminal rate if inflation does not cool, citing January's bumper payrolls report. Asia-Pacific markets were mostly higher Friday, while U.S. stock futures nudged lower.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's shrinking population: What it means for the global economyChina made global headlines in January when it announced a drop in its population for the first time since the 1960s. The country's National Bureau of Statistics reported the population total narrowed to 1.412 billion last year from 1.413 billion in 2021. Watch the video above to find out what caused this decline and how the shrinking population could alter the global economy.
A worker assembling a bean grinder for export at a factory in China’s Jiangsu province last month. HONG KONG—Economic activity in China expanded sharply for a second straight month, in an early sign the country may be shaking off the impact of pandemic curbs sooner than expected. A gauge of manufacturing rose at the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, while export orders expanded for the first time in almost two years, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Services and construction activity also expanded further, the purchasing managers index report showed.
China's factory activity expands at fastest pace since 2012
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BEIJING, March 1 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity expanded as the fastest pace in more than a decade in February, official data showed on Wednesday, smashing expectations as production zoomed after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions late last year. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 52.6 against 50.1 in January, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, above the 50-point mark that separates expansion and contraction in activity on a monthly basis. The official non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 56.3 from 54.4 in January. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, rose to 56.4 from 52.9. Reporting by Liangping Gao and Joe Cash; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
China's factories just had their best month in 11 years
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
Hong Kong CNN —China’s factory activity has expanded at the fastest pace in more than a decade, as the world’s second largest economy staged what economists are calling a “very rapid” rebound after reopening from zero-Covid. In January, the reading was 50.1, a sharp increase from the month before, as disruptions caused by the abrupt end of pandemic restrictions was starting to fade. The official non-manufacturing PMI for February, which includes the construction and services industries, recorded its best level in two years, figures from the NBS showed. Also Wednesday, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI, a private gauge of the country’s factory activity, jumped to 51.6 in February from 49.2 in January. The latest data is “exceptionally strong,” confirming a “very rapid rebound” in China’s economic activity, Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, wrote in a research note.
Bitcoin and other risk assets rose after strong Chinese manufacturing activity data. The coin on Wednesday was gaining ground on notably strong manufacturing data out of China. China's National Bureau of Statistics said its manufacturing activity index rose to 52.46 in February, the highest reading since April 2012, according to Bloomberg. Chinese stocks bounced higher, with the Hang Seng Index soaring more than 4%. Copper was another risk-on asset gaining ground, up 1.2% at $4.14 per pound on prospects of higher Chinese demand for the metal used for construction projects.
China's factory activity for February bounced further into expansion territory, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 52.6 in February – above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. That marks the highest reading since April 2012, when it hit 53.5. February's PMI reading is also higher than the 50.1 reported for January and above expectations of 50.5, according to economists surveyed by Reuters. Non-manufacturing PMI also grew further to 56.3 from January's print of 54.4, when it saw a sharp improvement backed by a recovery in services and construction activity.
Bond yields soared Wednesday, extending this year's jump in borrowing costs. The closely watched 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 4% for the first time since November. The 10-year Treasury yield, a gauge of borrowing costs for a range of consumer loans and other debt, sprang up nine basis points to 4.006%. Bond yields have shot up in 2023 after a run of higher-than-expected consumer and wholesale prices for January. As bond yields have risen, "bond love" is at a 10-year high, Bank of America said Wednesday.
European markets are heading for a modestly higher open, continuing the lackluster trend seen on Tuesday when regional markets closed lower after a mostly muted session. U.S. stock futures inched downward overnight as investors came off a losing month. In Asia-Pacific markets, stocks mostly rose as investors digested a slew of key economic data across the region. China's National Bureau of Statistics also reported its official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012.
BEIJING, Feb 28 (Reuters) - China's urban employment fell for the first time in six decades last year and per capita spending also marked a rare decline, as harsh COVID-19 curbs ravaged the world's second-biggest economy. The new data from the National Bureau of Statistics also showed the smallest income growth in more than three decades. The number of China's urban jobs dropped by 8.4 million to 459.31 million, the first drop since 1962. Per capita spending fell 0.2% in real terms, the statistics bureau data showed. Disposable income per capita in China grew by just 2.9% in real terms, the second smallest rise since 1989.
BEIJING, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Per capita spending in China fell 0.2% in real terms last year as harsh COVID curbs took their toll on consumer appetite, marking only the third such decline since records for that data began in 1980. That in turn was a rebound from a decline of 4% in 2020 during the initial throes of the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, income per capita in China grew by just 2.9% in real terms, the second smallest rise since 1989 and retail sales fell 0.2%, the second worst performance since 1968. Xu Tianchen, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit said, a steep drop in income growth for China's lowest income earners was a key factor behind the weak spending data. Rural areas performed better than urbanised zones, with the incomes of rural households growing by 4.2% in real terms on the year, compared with 1.9% growth in real terms for urban residents.
Income, spending in China grew far slower in 2022
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
BEIJING, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Income per capita in China grew by just 2.9% in real terms over 2022, after increasing by 8.1% a year earlier, returning to a growth rate similar to that of 2020 when China was battling COVID and introducing sweeping lockdowns and other restrictions. Per capita spending also decreased by 0.2% in real terms, according to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its annual statistical communique on Tuesday. Income per capita in China grew to 36,883 yuan ($5,310) over 2022, while spending per capita increased to 24,538 yuan ($3,533), the NBS said. Rural areas performed better than urbanised zones, with the incomes of rural households growing by 4.2% in real terms on the year, compared with 1.9% growth in real terms for urban residents. Urban and rural residents alike saw their incomes grow far slower this year, however, with urban residents seeing their incomes grow by 7.7% in 2021 and rural households by 9.7%, both in real terms.
BEIJING, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Income per capita in China grew to 36,883 yuan ($5,310) over 2022, an increase of 5.0% from a year ago, according to data published in the National Bureau of Statistics' annual statistical communique. Per capita spending also increased by 1.8% on the year to 24,538 yuan ($3,533), the document shows. Reporting by Joe Cash and Liz Lee; Editing by Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Australia retail sales rebound in Jan, but pulse slows
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SYDNEY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Australian retail sales rebounded in January after a surprise plunge in December that owed much to changing spending habits, though the underlining pulse was facing headwinds from high inflation and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 1.9% in January from December, when they dived 4.0%. Government spending also added 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth, while drags are seen coming from inventories, housing and consumer spending on goods. "It's clear that high inflation and rising interest rates are weighing on consumer spending," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for BIS Oxford Economics. "With spending still rebalancing toward services and weaker fundamentals for consumption growth, we expect retail sales growth will be quite patchy over 2023."
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