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Euro zone inflation tumble pits ECB against markets
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Inflation has dropped quickly towards the ECB's 2% target from levels above 10% just a year ago but policymakers have cautioned against excessive optimism. The rapid inflation slowdown puts the euro zone central bank and investors on a collision course as the two appear to see greatly different paths ahead, both for consumer prices and ECB interest rates. "And if the recent trends in inflation and growth continue then 2024 will be the year when the ECB implements a pirouette in monetary policy." "The market is therefore right to start looking at rate cuts for 2024. Some economists argue that modelling current inflation is exceptionally difficult because corporate profits are the main driver, not wages as in normal bouts of rapid inflation.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Kamil Kovar, Yannis Stournaras, Fabio Panetta, Panetta, Christine Lagarde's, Bert Colijn, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, ECB, Moody's, Bank of Italy, ING, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, FRANKFURT
For the month, CPI fell 0.3%, driven by declines in petrol, rent and holiday travel. A closely watched measure of core inflation, the trimmed mean, rose an annual 5.3% in October, easing from 5.4% the previous month. "It's hard to find bad news in Australia's October inflation print," said Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. Prices for tradable goods fell 1.6% in October from a month earlier. It also left the door open to further tightening if necessary to meet its annual inflation target of 2-3%.
Persons: Daniel Munoz, Harry Murphy Cruise, Jonathan Kearns, Wayne Cole, Stella Qiu, Lincoln, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Australian Bureau, Statistics, Moody’s, Reserve Bank Board, Reserve Bank of Australia, Challenger, Thomson Locations: Australia
“It shows the psychological mind frame of consumers,” said Mickey Chadha, vice president of corporate finance at Moody’s Investors Services, referring to holiday spending data. This year, dollar sales growth for the holidays in the United States is forecast to slow to 3.3% from 6% last year. It means the spending growth it reported was “driven by net-new demand, not simply higher prices,” Adobe said. The experts CNN spoke to were all in agreement: Holiday spending data — no matter how good or bad — doesn’t represent the state of the entire US economy. A report she coauthored with Chadha predicts holiday sales will grow “a fairly modest 1% to 3%” this year.
Persons: , Mickey Chadha, Aditya Bhave, David Paul Morris, That’s, Tamara Charm, Charm, ” Adobe, Chedly Louis, Chadha, Michael Zdinak, he’s, Bhave, that’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Moody’s Investors Services, Adobe Analytics, Adobe, P Global Market Intelligence, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Getty, Consumer, Consumers, McKinsey, CNN, Moody’s Investors Locations: New York, United States, That’s
Mortgage rates will settle between 5%-6%, helping boost home sales, Zandi added. The trend is especially evident among high-end properties, where the rise of multi-family towers in urban centers has lowered rents and impacted the single-family housing market. That's because the added supply increases overall competition in the housing market as sellers of existing homes will be under more pressure to cut prices, he explained. The rush to add inventory comes as the housing market faces a broad supply crunch, made worse by homeowners' resistance to sell their properties. He reiterated that this will help boost housing sales, as long as a recession is avoided and incomes continue to rise.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Zandi, Organizations: CNBC, Service
While the euro zone has pledged to do "whatever it takes" and jointly issued debt for the first time during the pandemic, its debt load remains eye-watering. Scope assigns Italy a "stable" outlook, but "risks remain", Shen said, "given the weak growth and fiscal outlook". Reuters GraphicsNEXT CRISISThe ECB uses the best rating available from its approved agencies to determine a bond's collateral value when commercial banks borrow from it. Last week's Dutch election win by the far-right Geert Wilders could also have rating implications, Shen said. "Governance risks are a challenge in the longer run for one of the world’s remaining AAA-rated sovereigns...But the rating is not imminently at risk."
Persons: Yorgos, Moody's, Dennis Shen, Fitch, DBRS Morningstar, Shen, DBRS, bode, Geert Wilders, Marc Jones, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Companies, AAA, European Central Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics NEXT, ECB, Thomson Locations: Athens, Italy, France, Berlin, U.S, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus, Rome, Canada, Dutch
“I have no idea what I like,” Emma Corrin said. This was on a recent Friday afternoon at the Mysterious Bookshop, a Manhattan emporium dedicated to thrillers, detective stories, spy stories and noir classics. Corrin appealed to the store’s manager, Tom Wickersham. They play Darby Hart, an amateur detective who becomes a true-crime author after solving a case involving unidentified women in the Midwest. Between setups, Corrin would read aloud from selected books, including a collection of erotica.
Persons: Emma Corrin, Paolo Pasolini, Corrin, Tom Wickersham, , ” Corrin, Darby Hart, Locations: Manhattan, London
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMortgage rates will settle around five and a half to six percent, says Moody’s Analytics' Mark ZandiMark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, and CNBC's Diana Olick join 'The Exchange' to discuss affordability concerns in the real estate market, when inventory will settle and more.
Persons: Zandi Mark Zandi, Diana Olick Organizations: Moody’s
A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.
Persons: , Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe
These deals help banks meet capital requirements more efficiently, allowing them to keep lucrative businesses that would otherwise become unprofitable. Investors in these deals include lightly-regulated entities like hedge funds, shifting risk to the shadow banking sector. Credit risk transfer is another tool for them to pursue after the Fed’s clarification on what is allowed, said Cory Wishengrad, head of fixed income at Guggenheim Securities. That means Merchants sold the riskiest tranche of the loan portfolio, maximizing the capital relief it could get on it. Whether U.S. regulators will allow such insurance deals to qualify for capital relief is still untested, Staudinger said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Blackstone, Jill Cetina, Jon, Claude Zucconi, Zucconi, Michael Barr, Barr, Banks, Missy Dolski, Sam Graziano, Graziano, Cory Wishengrad, Jed Miller, Taft, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan, Deborah Staudinger, Hogan Lovells, Staudinger, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Blackstone Group, JPMorgan Chase, Merchants Bank of Indiana, US Bancorp, Investors, JPMorgan, Merchants Bank, Federal Reserve, Varde Partners, Financial, Guggenheim Securities, U.S . Bank, Fed, Reuters, Merchants, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wickersham, Europe, Indiana
[1/3] Richard Teng, head of the Middle East and North Africa for crypto firm Binance gestures as he speaks during an interview with Reuters in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, March 30, 2022. Teng faces an especially tough task in transforming the culture of Binance, four of the people said. Still, leading a cultural shift at Binance - a firm shaped by Zhao in his own image - would be "hugely difficult," she said. For years it dominated the crypto market, but this year has rapidly lost market share. Last month it controlled 32% of crypto spot and 50% of derivatives trading, according to crypto firm CCData, down from 55% and 62% respectively in January.
Persons: Richard Teng, Abdel Hadi Ramahi, Teng, Changpeng Zhao, Janet Yellen, Binance, Carol Alexander, Zhao, Yi He, Binance's, Simon Matthews, Richard, Matthews, FinCEN, John Reed Stark, Rajeev Bamra, OKX, Joseph Edwards, Tom Wilson, Elizabeth Howcroft, Elisa Martinuzzi, Louise Heavens Organizations: Reuters, United Arab Emirates, REUTERS, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, U.S, Treasury, University of Sussex, Investors, Treasury's, Internet Enforcement, Singapore, Abu, Abu Dhabi Global, Singapore Exchange, Moody's Investors Service, Securities, Thomson Locations: East, North Africa, Dubai, United Arab, U.S, Abu Dhabi, France, Seychelles, London
The French do not like an Englishman’s rendition of Napoleon. Or at least, the French critics do not. Yet while British and American reviewers glowed, French critics considered it lazy, pointless, boring, migraine-inducing, too short and historically inaccurate. And that’s just to start. The critic for the left-wing daily Libération panned the film as not just ugly, but vacuous, positing nothing and “very sure of its inanity.” The review in Le Monde offered that if the director’s vision had one merit, it was “simplicity” — “a montage alternating between Napoleon’s love life and his feats of battle.”
Persons: Napoleon, Joaquin Phoenix glowers, Ridley Scott, deliciously, glowed, Organizations: Le Monde Locations: Paris
General view of Bahrain World Trade Center is seen during early evening hours in Manama, Bahrain, May 2, 2020. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 24 (Reuters) - S&P Global Ratings on Friday revised Bahrain's outlook to "stable" from "positive", citing spending pressures that could push the country's fiscal deficit wider than the credit ratings agency previously expected. "We expect the government will reinvigorate reforms to consolidate its fiscal position, largely via increasing non-oil revenue through 2026," it said in a statement. The agency now projects fiscal deficits of 3% to 4% of Bahrain's GDP over 2023-26, compared with 2% to 3% in its previous review. S&P peer Fitch affirmed Bahrain at 'B+' with stable outlook in July, while Moody's changed Bahrain's outlook to stable from negative and affirmed B2 ratings in April last year.
Persons: Hamad I Mohammed, Fitch, Moody's, Vedant Vinayak Vichare, Devika Syamnath, Arun Koyyur Organizations: Bahrain World Trade, REUTERS, Navy's, Thomson Locations: Bahrain, Manama, Bengaluru
Price drops may be needed to thaw the housing market, which could take years, Zandi said. Kelman expects home prices to drop next year, as listings are up and sellers are cutting prices. AdvertisementHouse prices may be headed lower, dealing a blow to sellers but providing relief to buyers, two experts say. The housing market ground to a halt this year, as the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting hikes to interest rates have boosted mortgage rates to two-decade highs. "I don't expect the housing market to come roaring back here, certainly not in 2024," he said.
Persons: Mark Zandi, Glenn Kelman, Price, Zandi, Kelman, , Morgan Stanley's, there's, we've, Redfin's Kelman Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Fox
By Khanh Vu and Francesco GuarascioHANOI (Reuters) - Vietnam's top leader vowed to extend "for the long-term" an anti-corruption campaign that has had a chilling effect on the economy, after police revealed financial scandals in the real estate sector worth more than 3% of gross domestic product. Trong's remarks came after the police announced the outcome of months-long investigations into two financial scandals, revealing for the first time the scale of the fraud, worth a combined $12.8 billion, or 3.2% of the economy. The case had been widely publicised when My Lan was arrested in October last year and led to a crisis in the real estate sector and the market for corporate bonds, which she has been accused of issuing illegally in large amounts. The huge scale of the fraud had not been known until this week and has raised concern among financial experts about the impact on the banking sector. In September, the Asian Development Bank warned of potential spillover into banking from the crisis in the real estate sector as the ratio of non-performing loans increased.
Persons: Khanh Vu, Francesco Guarascio HANOI, Nguyen Phu Trong, Trong's, Truong My Lan, Van Thinh, Lan, Morgan, Moody's, Tan, Francesco Guarascio, Robert Birsel Organizations: Communist Party's, Van Thinh Phat Holdings Group, Stock Commercial Bank, Morgan Research, Asian Development Bank, Group Locations: Communist, Saigon, China
"It's common for there to be a recall when there haven't been any incidents yet," said Moody. For the Nov. 16 recall on damaged engines, drivers should expect to receive a notification on Jan. 2, 2024. Travel plans 'will depend on the nature of the recall'As to whether or not travel plans should be altered, the decision will depend on the nature of the recall, said McParland. "If the recall says possible transmission failure, that's a lot more risky for long-distance travel versus a glitchy navigation system," McParland said. "Usually rentals are not covered" as part of the recall repair, McParland said.
Persons: haven't, Brian Moody, Kelley, Moody, It's, McParland Organizations: Maskot, Getty, Honda's
Investors who hope to generate portfolio income while recession fears ramp higher can seek some safety in municipal bonds. Wells Fargo Investment Institute recently issued its fixed income guidance for 2024, forecasting "higher for longer" rates across the yield curve as the Federal Reserve remains vigilant to bring down inflation. Municipal bonds offer a combination of characteristics that appeal to investors: General obligation bonds are backed by the revenue of the municipality issuing them. "Going into a slowdown, you anticipate rates to fall," said Brian Rehling, head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. The top marginal income tax rate is 13.3% in California and well over 10% in New York and New Jersey.
Persons: Brian Rehling, Jennifer Johnston, Franklin Templeton, Johnston Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Federal Reserve, Fargo Investment Institute, AAA, Muni Bond ETF, Vanguard, Bond, Fed, New York Life Investments, Investors, York State, Metropolitan Transportation Authority Locations: Wells Fargo, Fargo, New, California, New York, New Jersey, York
WASHINGTON (AP) — While the scandals in the cryptocurrency industry seem to never end, Washington policymakers appear to have little interest in pushing through legislation to codify the structure of the industry. The latest shoe to drop is Binance’s multibillion dollar settlement with U.S. authorities and the resignation of its CEO this week. When cryptocurrencies collapsed and a number of companies failed last year, Congress considered multiple approaches for how to regulate the industry in the future. Brown has been highly skeptical of cryptocurrencies as a concept and he’s been generally reluctant to put Congress’ blessing on them through legislation. Yesterday’s development marks the same inflection point that we saw earlier at the intersection of the .com and post-.com eras.”
Persons: Sam Bankman, cryptocurrencies, Janet Yellen, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, Binance, General Merrick Garland, — Binance, Debbie Stabenow, John Boozman, Sen, Sherrod Brown, Brown, He’s, ” Brown, Fried, can’t, , Dennis Kelleher, Yiannis Giokas Organizations: WASHINGTON, Treasury, White, Biden Administration, Binance, U.S . Treasury, U.S, Securities and Exchange Commission, Coinbase, SEC, PayPal, Futures Trading Commission, Agriculture Committee, U.S ., Financial Services, Senate, Consumer, Better, Moody’s Analytics, U.S . Authorities Locations: Washington, United States, Cayman Islands, Ohio, stablecoins, U.S
"A fiscal commission is direly needed," Republican Senator Mike Braun, a Budget Committee member, said in an interview. It circulated ideas from a dozen experts on how a commission could offer up solutions for taming deficits and debt. Other recommendations included subjecting high-income earners to more Social Security taxes and gradually raising the age for full retirement benefits to 69 from the current 67. A commission, said independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, would simply be "a backdoor way to get into cutting Social Security." Sanders embraced lifting the cap on taxable income to extend the life of the Social Security trust fund.
Persons: Kevin Wurm, Mike Braun, Braun, Moody's, Fitch, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Mark Zandi, Dana Peterson, Lori Esposito Murray, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, Bernie Sanders, Sanders, Richard Cowan, Moira Warburton, Grant McCool Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, Congress, Treasury Department, Republican, AAA, Peterson Foundation, Conference Board, Democratic, Representatives, Social Security, Social, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
Best Buy, Lowe’s and Kohl’s all reported sales declines during their most recent quarter Tuesday and are forecasting holiday sales to drop from a year ago. In 2021, Holiday shopping sales spiked by 14% and grew by a healthy 5% last year. But Moody’s Investors Service said in a report today that consumers are “losing spending steam” and holiday sales will grow by just 1% to 3% this year. “Retailers offering a combination of value and non-discretionary essentials will see their sales outperform the broader retail industry this holiday season,” according to Moody’s. “One trend that’s sticking is a longer holiday season.
Persons: Corie Barry, TJ Maxx, Moody’s, , Berna Barshay Organizations: New, New York CNN, Shoppers, Consumer, Moody’s, Service, Walmart, Costco, “ Retailers, Retailers, Sporting Goods Locations: New York
REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) expects the U.S. Treasuries curve to steepen in the long term, driven by rising fiscal spending, top executives said. "Fiscal spending has not abated. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, hit 5% last month for the first time since 2007. Demand for long-dated Treasuries has slipped in the last six months from central banks, U.S. regional banks and sovereign wealth funds, said Jim Esposito, who jointly runs Goldman's global banking and markets division. "Our economists think most central banks will start cutting rates next year, albeit slowly.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Goldman Sachs, Ashok Varadhan, Goldman's, Fitch, Moody's, government's, Treasuries, Jim Esposito, they've, Esposito, Lananh Nguyen, Davide Barbuscia, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, U.S, QE, China
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Closely watched U.S. treasury yields slipped after auction, while global oil futures gained $2 on the prospect of supply cuts. Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) inched up 0.1%, with energy stocks (.SXEP) leading gains. The healthcare sector (.SXDP) fell after shares in Bayer (BAYGn.DE) dropped to their lowest in 14 years. The dollar index fell to 103.26, its weakest since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates next year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, U.S, Bayer, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Trading, LPL, Tech, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, Thursday's U.S, United States, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has showed a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was traded at 148.40 yen , down 0.81%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Reserve Bank of Richmond, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. The MSCI World Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38% by 10:37 a.m. EST (1537 GMT) and Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) rose 0.08%. The tech-heavy index (.IXIC) gained 0.44% to 14,187.16, as the Dow Jones (.DJI) rose 0.25% to 35,035.33 and the S&P 500 index (.SPX) gained 0.27% to 4,526.14. The dollar index fell to 103.46, its weakest level since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. "Dovish minutes could trigger some downside risk for the dollar," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Israel, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Global, U.S, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Hamas, Tech, Treasury, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, United States, Gaza, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
Office Landlords Can’t Get a Loan Anymore
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Konrad Putzier | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The office sector’s credit crunch is intensifying. By one measure, it’s now worse than during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Only one out of every three securitized office mortgages that expired during the first nine months of 2023 was paid off by the end of September, according to Moody’s Analytics.
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