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☆ We mapped out the 113 most powerful people at Warner Bros. Discovery after a blockbuster merger and a tumultuous year of layoffs and cuts under CEO David Zaslav
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Claire Atkinson | Lucia Moses | Taylor Tyson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Warner Bros. CEO David Zaslav is focused on rebuilding but faces economic headwinds and an advertising slump. Insider mapped out the 112 most powerful people under Zaslav leading WBD film and TV studios, HBO, CNN, and more. One year after the merger that created Warner Bros. While Kathleen Finch has joined the mix with her portfolio of Discovery channels, top TV execs from the WarnerMedia regime — HBO's Casey Bloys and Warner Bros. TV studios chief Channing Dungey — are still in place.

LONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - If a mega Western recession is coming down the pike in the second half of this year, someone should point it out to the junk bond market. The investment herd seems more convinced than ever that recession is on the way amid tightening bank credit after the March bank stress - even if not all the incoming evidence supports that take. More than a third now see the biggest risk ahead as a bank credit crunch and global recession. And that's with junk spreads more than three times higher than quality corporates. U.S. and European junk bond spreads historicallyBank of America survey on investment grade bonds vs junkCOURAGE AND DECOMPRESSIONThere's little doubt than many investors want to steer well clear, for now at least.

☆ Morning Bid: Crowded bonds unnerved
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

This has some wondering if the recent dash for cash and top-rated bonds has become a bit crowded and how much more tightening central banks have to do. As we move into the weeds of the first-quarter U.S. earnings season, it's been a mixed bag so far. That clearly unnerved UK government bonds - where 10 year yields jumped 10bps - but it also jarred sovereign bonds around the world. Elsewhere, further signs of healing were evident in the global bank funding market. Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316.T) sold $1 billion of additional tier-1 debt, the first major global bank to sell the risky securities since similar bonds issued by Credit Suisse were wiped out last month.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ Is Alvin Bragg’s Case Against Trump Constitutional?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( David B. Rivkin Jr. | Kristin A. Shapiro | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +1 min

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg ’s indictment of Donald Trump could mean trouble down the road for Joe Biden. “I think our Republican AGs and DAs”—attorneys general and district attorneys—“should get creative,” Mike Davis , a Republican former Senate staffer, told the New York Post. But under the Trump precedent, what’s to stop an ambitious Republican prosecutor somewhere from bringing dubious state charges against him before a hostile jury after he leaves office? Every four to eight years, prosecutors would order up a presidential ham sandwich. Presidents might end up having to flee the country when they leave office.

☆ Morning Bid: Banks calm the horses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

As U.S. banking giants calm the horses, global investors are now concentrated on world growth and earnings signals more than interest rate rises for direction - with an assumption the latter are near an end anyway. Somewhat relieved analysts marginally brightened their dim outlook for first-quarter U.S. results compared with a week ago. Futures markets now see a more than 80% chance the Fed will execute one final quarter point rate rise next month - reversing it by September. That rate rise would bring the real Fed policy rate - adjusted by headline consumer price inflation - into positive territory for the first time in three years. The dollar extended Friday's rebound as the May rate rise pricing hardened.

☆ Marketmind: Banks to test soft landing thesis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets have surged this week on renewed hopes of disinflation, peak interest rates and a soft economic landing - and earnings from Wall Street's biggest banks now test the thesis. Markets will be most focussed on bank guidance on how much the March bank failure will crimp lending going forward. Next month's expected interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve is now expected to be the last and futures see up to 70 basis points of cuts from that point to year-end. And with China's booming trade numbers for last month also suggesting the world economy at large will comfortably skirt recession this year, "soft landing" hopes are back in vogue. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

MSCI's Europe index, for example, still trades more than a point below its average historic valuation - with the index priced at less than 13 times its 12-month forward earnings. The top sectoral weighting in the STOXX Europe 50, for example, is healthcare - at almost 23%. With British-based stocks the biggest country weighting in the STOXX Europe index at 26%, the other top four sectors in the index include the food, beverages and tobacco grouping, consumer products, industrial goods and energy. The dollar peaked late last year against most European currencies as the Federal Reserve raced to ratchet up interest rates. Some think the slide in the dollar index of some 12% since last September is barely half of the whole move.

☆ Marketmind: Dollar skids, China revs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar's DXY index - the Swiss franc hit its strongest level in more than two years. Taking in all the information, futures markets still show a near 75% chance of another quarter point rate rise to the 5.0-5.25% range in May, but more than 60 basis points of cuts from there to yearend. Two-year Treasury yields were stuck at 4%, with producer price inflation and weekly jobless up next on Thursday's data calendar. European markets were further pepped by reports the European Central Bank was minded to downsize its rate hikes to a quarter point in May after six successive half point moves. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

The ECB's systemic risk indicator for the United States, for example, has returned to its lowest level in a year. The near $400 billion that dashed for money funds after the Lehman Brothers bust in late 2008 - despite credit fears in some of those funds - had completely retreated by early 2010. The relative interest rate attraction of bills and repos after the steepest Fed rate rises in 40 years should make this year's flows far stickier - unless or until the Fed were to embark on some dramatic rate easing. Either way, there's now no shortage of savings in cash if or when the lights go green. by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Added chart from Andy Bruce; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Glass half full on disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Headline March consumer price inflation is expected to drop as low as 5.2% from 6% - showing the disinflation journey from more than 40-year highs of 9.2% last June to the Fed's 2% target more than half way there. The rider is that headline inflation rates are expected be below stickier annual 'core' rates, which are forecast to have ticked higher to 5.6% last month. The International Monetary Fund's updated World Economic Outlook is also due on Tuesday ahead of the Fund's Spring meeting in Washington. The disinflation picture was encouraged around the world on Tuesday as Chinese consumer price inflation hit an 18-month low last month and the annual decline in factory prices sped up. Hopes that central bank rates are cresting worldwide lifted risk appetite across the spectrum with major cryptocurrency bitcoin broke back above $30,000 level for the first time in 10 months on Tuesday.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets labor under recession cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. If the tight U.S. labor market is finally unwinding, markets suspect the Federal Reserve's job may well done after all - but at the cost of a looming recession. With Wednesday's private sector jobs reading for March and Friday's national payrolls report ahead, U.S. interest rate markets were jolted again on Tuesday by surprisingly soft data on job vacancies that suggested cooling demand for staff. More decisively, the two-year Treasury yield plunged more than 20 basis points intraday to hover just above 3.8% on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

LONDON, April 5 (Reuters) - As "fragmentation" of politics and economics becomes the new buzzword for a world that appears to be splintering into blocs, the related costs of the new order are only now being totted up. Corporate rethinking of foreign direct investment (FDI) - bricks-and-mortar developments overseas as well as mergers and acquisitions - would make the hit even scarier. And if FDI fragmentation is defined by a permanent rise in cross-bloc barriers to imported investment inputs, the IMF said developments could cut world output by 2% in the long term. "Fragmentation of the global economy will likely put inflation at a higher structural level, and the cost of capital will likely go up, squeezing low-quality and leveraged companies." Reuters GraphicsBIS chart on global trade as share of GDPBCG projections on world trade to 2031The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Mike Pence will testify before a grand jury about Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Oma Seddiq | Sonam Sheth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Pence will not fight a court ruling ordering him to testify before a grand jury about Trump efforts to overturn the 2020 election. A federal judge ruled last month that Pence must testify about conversations he had with Trump leading up to January 6, 2021. Trump pressured Pence, both publicly and privately, to assist in his efforts to overturn Biden's 2020 election victory. Trump supporters could be heard chanting that they wanted to "hang Mike Pence" during the Capitol riot, according to video footage. They're literally calling for the vice president to be effing hung,'" Hutchinson testified.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets brush off OPEC as factories stall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRelatively calm world markets have brushed off OPEC's latest twist and focussed more squarely on stalled global manufacturing and edgy U.S.-China relations. Crude oil prices held much of Monday's pop higher on the surprise weekend production cut by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. But Brent crude remains below levels seen just before the Silicon Valley Bank bust last month and is still tracking year-on-year declines of 20%. Strikingly, both short and long-term inflation expectations embedded in the Treasury markets , have barely budged since the OPEC news. McCarthy, the third-most-senior U.S. leader after the president and vice president, is due to host a meeting in California on Wednesday with Tsai.

☆ Morning Bid: Crude cut complicates Q2
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Brent crude surged on Monday in response, settling about 5% higher than Friday's close. The mild reaction in the rates and bond markets to the OPEC move reflects some of that. Asia and Europe's main stock indices were steady to higher, with S&P500 futures only marginally in the red ahead of Monday's open. The VIX (.VIX) volatility index was a touch higher, though still below 20, and the dollar (.DXY) was up smartly. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index teetered back on the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction again in March.

☆ People are moving to North Carolina for its natural beauty and country vibes, but finding it doesn't offer a lower cost of living or diversity
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Jordan Pandy | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

She and her family considered places like Tennessee and Florida , but ultimately chose North Carolina because of its hands-off government and lush scenery. Five recent movers highlight what stands out about North Carolina, from its natural scenery to its lack of diversity. One thing she's had to get used to in North Carolina is the lack of diversity in food. An Ohio man liked North Carolina so much he moved there twiceJohn Yuschak first dipped a toe in North Carolina in 2012 after moving from Columbus, Ohio. They were pleased with the four seasons North Carolina has to offer, but anticipated higher savings.

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

LONDON, March 31 (Reuters) - Even after a bank shock that could well have changed the whole picture, investors appear reluctant to give up the ghost just yet. The tech-heavy, interest-rate sensitive Nasdaq (.IXIC) is up 14% and even broad European bank stock indices (.SX7P) are still up more than 4% for the year. Pull the lens out as far as it can go and MSCI's all-country index of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) is up more than 5%. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. by Mike Dolan; Editing by Toby Chopra; Twitter: @reutersMikeDOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: World markets leaving March like a lamb
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanIn like a lion, out like a lamb. Farmers' almanacs suggest a stormy and turbulent start to March means it's likely to end calm and serene - and so it appears with world financial markets this year. The evidence is sketchy so far and the impact on lending and credit generally will be examined forensically from here. That U-turn in thinking during the month saw wild swings in the bond and rates markets, where key volatility gauges (.MOVE) hit their highest since the 2008 crash. (.CESIUSD)Elsewhere, European markets continued to advance on Thursday, with banking stocks (.SX7P) up another 2% and credit default swaps on many banks lower too.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank calm, rates firm, Alibaba steals show
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A semblance of calm has returned to world markets in the final week of the first quarter as the banking storm abates and the spotlight switched to a share-boosting six-way revamp of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. Investors cheered the surprise move from Alibaba (9988.HK) as a sign Beijing's corporate crackdown may be nearing an end, sending shares of the Jack Ma-founded firm and peers soaring. The surprise move seeks to take advantage of Ermotti's experience rebuilding the bank after the global financial crisis 15 years ago. Broader stock markets were higher across the board, with Wall St futures up almost 1% ahead of the open. Futures markets now show a 50-50 chance of one more Fed rate hike in this cycle in May and half a point of easing by yearend.

While money funds are not strictly gauranteed or insured, the 85% invested heavily in government securities put up some stark competition for bank deposits that have lagged central bank policy rate rises over the past 18 months - causing much political ire in countries such as Britain. But, in contrast to money funds, the average rate across all of them, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is still just 0.37%. That's now changing due to safety and insurance fears at smaller banks stateside - as well as the compelling alternative at money funds that appear safer against that backdrop. Of this trillion, half went to government money market funds and the other half to larger banks, they reckoned. Noting that some $7 trillion of U.S. bank deposits remained uninsured, the JPM team concluded: "A FDIC guarantee of all U.S. bank deposits would certainly help, but it might not be enough to completely stop this deposit shift."

☆ Morning Bid: Swinging between bank fears and rate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanMarkets seem caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Easing concerns about bank stability this week have merely re-introduced interest rate risk, reining in any suggestion of a runaway relief rally as the first quarter closes on Friday. While nerves persist over March bank failures and contagion fears, central banks are still faced with punchy growth and inflation and will likely switch attention back to cooling that down once they're assured banks can take the strain. But interest rate markets are already correcting as signs of stability in the banking arena emerge. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Brittle banks find a berth
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With few fresh weekend developments on the European bank stock rigor late last week, European bourses and bank stocks found a level too. Deutsche Bank, whose stock lurched lower on Friday amid fears about rising bank funding costs, regained about 3% on Monday. Deposits at small banks fell by $120 billion in the week to March 15, while borrowing jumped $253 billion. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline year-on-year inflation rate to have cooled to 7.2% from 8.5% in February. * U.S. Treasury auctions 2-year notes* U.S. corporate earnings: CarnivalReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

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