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☆ Here's what analysts see in store for stocks as the US government barrels towards a shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US government is more likely than not to shutdown by the end of the month, Goldman Sachs warned. But stocks could rebound quickly from any ensuing volatility, stock market experts say. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . And in some cases, stocks actually ended the shutdown period higher, with the market gaining a net 10% following the 2018-19 shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro. "I think the government shutdown itself isn't a major issue from a stock market perspective," Truist co-chief investment officer Keith Lerner said to CNBC on Monday.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, it's, aren't, Charles Schwab, Alec Phillips, shutdowns, Dow Jones, Wells, Truist, Keith Lerner Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs Research, CNBC

☆ China's economic situation isn't as dire as it seems, and policymakers in Beijing were just expecting too much, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy isn't doing as bad as it seems, according to economist Nancy Qian. But Beijing has been disappointed due to outsized expectations for economic growth. Though it's weighed down by a bloated property sector and looming demographic problems, China's economic growth actually clocked in at 6.3% year-over-year over the second quarter, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. That's the second-highest projected growth rate among countries tracked by the OECD, with the US, by comparison, slated to grow just 2.2% this year. AdvertisementAdvertisement"But is China's economy really in dire straits?

Persons: Nancy Qian, it's, That's, Qian Organizations: Service, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, OECD, Northwestern University, Northwester's, Research Lab, China Econ, Syndicate, Japan Locations: Beijing, Wall, Silicon, China, Italy, Spain, Sweden

☆ America's $1 trillion credit card bill really isn't as bad as it seems
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

US credit card debt hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. And with those considerations, the hefty credit card balance in the US actually isn't much of a problem. According to Michele Raneri, the vice president of financial services research at Transunion, credit card utilization has stayed around 22%. Already, the delinquency rate on loans issued in 2023 is lower than the delinquency rate on loans issued in 2021 and 2022. That suggests credit card delinquencies will soon peak around the fourth quarter of this year before declining, he estimated.

Persons: That's, Mark Zandi, They've, Zandi, Michele Raneri, they've, Raneri, Gen Zers, Gen Z, LendingTree, Wells Fargo Organizations: Economists, Service, San Francisco Fed, stoke, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US Housing Market: Home Prices Could Jump 5% in Next Year, Zillow Says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Home prices could climb even higher over the next year, Zillow economists said. The real estate listings site revised its 12-month outlook for home prices, predicting a 4.9% increase by August 2024. That's slightly down from its 12-month home price outlook in July, when the firm predicted a 6.5% increase in home prices by July of next year. Experts have warned housing affordability is unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly. That could unlock more inventory to hit the housing market, but it's unlikely to happen anytime soon, with experts forecasting mortgage rates to end the year around 6%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Bankrate, Zillow, uptick Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 'Shark Tank' investor Kevin O'Leary warns of more pain coming for the economy as the Fed is poised to hike rates higher and as oil prices keep rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed will likely spark more pain for the US economy, according to "Shark Tank" star Kevin O'Leary. He predicted the Fed will push interest rates to 6% in a bid to lower inflation. Central bankers have raised interest rates aggressively over the past 18 months to control inflation, with rates now at their highest level since 2001. Oil prices have stuck close to a 10-month high, with Brent crude the international benchmark, trading around $94 a barrel on Friday while West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $91 a barrel..O'Leary blamed high oil prices on a systemic shortage of crude production. Forecasters have warned that oil prices could go even higher through the end of the year as supply cuts from producers in OPEC+ could deepen.

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, O'Leary, Brent Organizations: Service, Federal, Fox Business, of Labor Statistics, West Texas Intermediate Locations: Wall, Silicon, OPEC

☆ China's economic troubles have left some cities so cash-strapped they're resorting to bizarre fines, skipping bills, and slashing health coverage
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Some Chinese cities are majorly cash-strapped as the economy grapples with debt and deflation. Local governments have resorted to handing out bizarre tickets and shirking bills to make money. That's led some cities to start imposing bizarre fines in the hopes of scraping together enough cash to meet their obligations. The state-funded China's Endangered Species Fund, for instance, says it hasn't received cash from the government for about half a year. Experts have warned of a bleak future ahead for China's economy, which is straddled with big debt loads, a deflation problem, and still-sluggish demand from its two-year COVID-lockdown.

Persons: shirk, That's, hasn't Organizations: Service, CNN, Yuekai Securities, Species Fund, New York Times Locations: Wall, Silicon, Guangdong, China, Beijing, Shanghai, Weibo, Wuhan

☆ The bond market's notorious indicator is correctly signaling a coming recession, and the Fed has made a major mistake, the economist who coined the inverted yield curve says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The gauge has never flashed a false positive - and it's likely saying the Fed made a big mistake, Harvey said. The curve officially inverted on October 26 last year, Fed data shows, meaning the recession signal is just a few days shy of the 11-month milestone. So it's way too early to say this is a false signal. Maybe it does turn out to be a false signal, but you can't say it's a false signal when you're not even at the average," Harvey said. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 13 basis points on Thursday to 4.478%, the highest level since 2007.

Persons: Campbell Harvey, Duke, Harvey, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Service, Federal, Duke University, CNBC, , New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, ,

☆ Russia's economy is headed for stagnation as the path of monetary policy is being chosen 'very poorly,' economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's economy is stumbling and could be headed for stagnation, economists said. Higher rates can help achieve those goals by tightening financial conditions, but that spells bad news for the rest of Russia's economy, which is already struggling. Russia's economic situation ran into trouble not long after it began its "special military operation" in Ukraine early last year. Prices could fall to just 5.6% in September, the center's economists forecasted, still around 1.5 times Russia's 4% targeted inflation rate. Western scholars and researchers, meanwhile, say that under-the-radar statistics of Russia's economy show a far weaker picture of Moscow's finances than Putin has let on.

Persons: Putin Organizations: Service, Russian Center Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Russia

☆ One Russian diamond giant is halting sales in a desperate scramble to stop prices from plunging
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia diamond giant Alrosa is halting sales in a bid to boost diamond prices, according to Bloomberg. Diamond prices have struggled over the past year amid growing demand for lab-grown stones. The mining giant will pause sales of rough diamonds until November, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing a company memo sent out to customers. That comes amid a freefall in diamond prices, which has only accelerated over the past few weeks. Russian diamonds are also facing a potential ban from the G7 nations, which could impact the price of diamonds of Russian origin.

Persons: Alrosa, De Beers, — Organizations: Bloomberg, Diamond, Service, Belgian Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon

☆ Oil prices could rise to $120 a barrel on further supply cuts, and that would bring economic growth to a halt next quarter, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude prices could potentially hit $120 a barrel, JPMorgan warned. That's assuming oil supply will face even more pressure in the coming months. Prices that high could bring global economic growth to a near standstill. But oil prices could tread higher and drag down the economy even more if oil supply faces continued pressure, strategists warned. AdvertisementAdvertisementSome US market commentators have already flagged rising oil prices as a major concern for the economy.

Persons: Brent Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ US stocks slump as investors brace for the Fed's next interest rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks dipped Tuesday as investors braced for the Fed's next interest rate move. Investors are pricing in a near-100% chance rates will be kept level on Wednesday. All three benchmark indexes ended the day lower, with the Dow losing over 100 points. All three benchmark indexes ended the day in the red, with the Dow losing over 100 points as central bankers deliberated over their next policy decision. Markets are pricing in a 99% chance central bankers will choose to keep interest rates level on Wednesday.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brent Schutte Organizations: Dow, Service, Federal, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Dow Jones Locations: Wall, Silicon, Here's

☆ Here are 6 key economic signals for markets to follow as the Fed gets ready to make its next policy move
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are six key economic indicators for markets to gauge the health of the US economy. The US is likely headed for a mild recession, according to one chief investment officer. Markets are currently pricing in a 99% chance the Fed will choose to keep interest rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Small business optimism is waningSmall business optimism slumped over the past month to 91.3, down 0.6 points from July's reading. But real wages of Americans have actually fallen 0.5% over the past month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could spell trouble for the US consumer.

Persons: Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Cleveland Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, University of Michigan's Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The US housing market is headed for the largest sales slowdown since 2011, Fannie Mae says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US home sales are headed for the largest slowdown since 2011, according to Fannie Mae. That's due to headwinds like higher mortgage rates, amid a weakening US economy. That figure will only improve slightly in 2024, with total home sales expected to hit 4.9 million, Fannie Mae economists said. Optimists who say the US is on track to avoid a recession have pointed to still-robust consumer spending, but current trends look unsustainable when considering incomes, Fannie Mae said. Experts say housing affordability and sales are unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly, likely to around the 5% range.

Persons: Fannie Mae, That's, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Real

☆ 5 common misconceptions about the US's $32 trillion debt mountain
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US's $32 trillion debt mountain may not be as bad as it seems. Still, economists say debt problems could arise in the future given the current rate of spending. But experts say that there are major misconceptions floating around the US debt problem that could make the nation's debt load appear more dire than it actually is. America's debt problem is uniqueRising debt levels is a worldwide issue. "This is more of a broader sovereign debt problem that's starting to develop.

Persons: Paul Krugman, there's, that's, Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: Service, Congressional, Office, Management, Moody's, Atlanta Fed, International Monetary Fund Locations: Wall, Silicon, Great Britain

☆ The delayed effect of mortgage rates means housing affordability is actually about to get worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Housing affordability is about to get even worse, thanks to the delayed impact of mortgage rates. In addition, some housing data come out with a two-month delay, they said on a podcast. That means that the spike in mortgage rates last month, when they hit the highest level since 2001, will take time to show up in purchases. Other experts have said affordability is unlikely to improve until mortgage rates dial back more significantly, which probably won't be happening anytime soon. Markets are expecting the Fed to keep interest rates elevated through the rest of the year as they monitor inflation, which could influence mortgage rates to stay elevated as well.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, it's, Morgan Stanley's Jim Egan, " Egan Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The Fed needs to decide if it wants to crush the economy to get inflation back to its target rate, famed economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

By the end of the year, the Fed will choose between the economy and its inflation target, Mohamed El-Erian said. The central will decide if it can tolerate inflation at 3% or higher — above its 2% target. Or the Fed will choose to "crush" the economy to reach its long-standing goal, he told CNBC. "The Fed at the end of the year is going to have a choice: You live with 3% or higher inflation, or your crush the economy," he said, adding that he hopes the Fed doesn't crush the economy. Though central bankers are officially aiming to lower inflation to a 2% long-run target, doing so could spark a severe downturn for the US economy, El-Erian has previously warned.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian Organizations: CNBC, Service, Reserve, Allianz, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, El

☆ China's tanking economy will hurt the US more than some experts think, top economist David Rosenberg says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's flailing economy could impact the US more than some experts think. That's because the US is a top foreign investor in China, economist David Rosenberg said. China also buys 40% of all exports from Chile, 34% of all exports from Australia, and 32% of all exports from Peru. The economic downfall will weigh negatively on the global economy, primarily through trade channels on countries with a high dependency on China," Rosenberg and Bakiskan said. The commodities trade in particular will feel the effects of China's economic problems, and countries that are top exporters of key metals are exposed, Rosenberg and Bakiskan said.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Atakan, Bakiskan, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, footholds Locations: China, Chile, Australia, Peru, Wall, Silicon, United States, Asia, Beijing

☆ Insider Today: Big banks are screwed
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-14 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

It's the latest example of the pressure big banks are under to keep their place atop Wall Street. Before the announcement, the bank's share price was down almost 9% this year, trailing all of its fellow big bank peers in the US except Bank of America. Citi's overhaul represents how big banks are scrambling to stay on top of a financial world passing them by. CEO Jamie Dimon recently quipped he "wouldn't be a big buyer of a bank" in reference to proposed regulations requiring big banks to keep more money on the sidelines. Whether it's fintechs or so-called shadow banks, there's no shortage of players looking to offer services previously dominated by big banks.

Persons: that'll, isn't, Mike Kemp, Insider's Jennifer Sor, Jane Fraser, Fraser, Fraser isn't, she's, Michael Corbat, Citi's reorg, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Rebecca Ungarino, Wells, Charlie Scharf, JPMorgan — isn't, Jamie Dimon, it's, Robert Nickelsberg, Morgan Stanley, — isn't, Arantza Pena Popo, Nicole Zaridze, Elon Musk, Post Malone, —, Hunter Biden, Garrett Ziegler, Paul Morigi, Biden's, Joey Hadden, I've, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Citigroup, Getty, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Independence, Apple, Post, SEC, Trump, Wikimedia, Motors, Ford, Nintendo Locations: Wall, Silicon, Seattle, New York City, China, Boxabl, Michigan, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Citi shakeup: The banking giant is planning layoffs and a huge overhaul
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Citigroup is planning a sweeping overhaul of its organization after years of lackluster stock performance. Citi stock climbed 2% shortly after the overhaul was announced. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. AdvertisementAdvertisementPeople familiar with the matter confirmed the layoffs with Bloomberg on Wednesday, though it was unclear how many employees would be affected. Citigroup stock rose 2% to $42.35 a share shortly after the reorganization was announced.

Persons: Jane Fraser, Fraser Organizations: Citigroup, Citi, Service, Bloomberg, Wall Street Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Vladimir Putin says that inflation in Russia is making it 'practically impossible' for businesses to plan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in Russia makes it nearly impossible for businesses in the country to plan, Vladimir Putin said. Still, Putin brushed off longer-term concerns for the Russian economy, adding that its problems were not "insurmountable." The president spoke at Russia's Eastern Economic Forum on Tuesday, touching on the economic problems that the nation was currently facing. Prices that high make the economic environment extremely uncertain for businesses in the nation, Putin said, per Reuters. Experts and observers say that Russia's economy has been significantly hobbled over the past year by western sanctions and the costly invasion of Ukraine.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Service, Economic, Reuters Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, That's, Ukraine

☆ The US economy is riddled with green flags and is headed for an expansion, not a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US economy has too many green flags to slip into a recession, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Consumer inflation expectations have plunged over the past few years – another positive indicator for the economy. One-year forward inflation expectations slumped to 3.6% in September, according to the New York Fed, down from the 6.8% recorded in June 2022. Shelter prices are the largest contributor of inflation in the economy, and rent prices have plunged from their 2021 peaks. AdvertisementAdvertisementApartment List's National Rent Index dropped to -1.2% in August, down from a nearly 20% increase in rent prices in late 2021.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, Janet Yellen Organizations: Service, BlackRock, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New York Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The US needs to get its ballooning debt problems under control to keep the dollar dominant, former IMF official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar's dominance is being threatening by growing debt in the US, economist Barry Eichengreen said. High debt caused the downfall of the British sterling as a global currency in the early 1900s, scholars say. Mounting debt was responsible for the British sterling's downfall as the world's top currency in the early 1900s, Eichengreen said. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Thus, whether the dollar retains its global role will depend not simply on US relations with Russia, China, or the BRICS. But a weaker dollar isn't necessarily a bad thing, as US companies with business overseas can be hurt if the dollar is too strong against local currencies.

Persons: Barry Eichengreen, Eichengreen, there's Organizations: Service, International Monetary Fund, Syndicate, UC Berkeley, Congressional, Office Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Russia

☆ The crashing office market will deepen the economic 'doom loop' for America's cities, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Some of America's largest cities risk falling into an economic "doom loop." Midsized cities could see higher tax rates and plunging property values as office demand falls. That's thanks to work-for-home trends, which have battered the commercial real estate market in hubs like Atlanta, Chicago, and Denver. "The problem that smaller cities have is that, often, there's not a whole lot of other things that cities have to offer in their downtown areas besides the commercial office district. Experts have warned for months of trouble in the overarching commercial real estate sector, which has struggled to bounce back from the pandemic.

Persons: Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Nieuwerburgh, Nieuwerburg, there's Organizations: Service, Columbia School of Business, National Association of Realtors, CNBC Locations: America's, Columbia, Wall, Silicon, Atlanta , Chicago, Denver

☆ There are 5 things the West could do to put even more pressure on Russia's struggling economy, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Russia's economy is crumbling - but the West needs to put more pressure on Moscow, researchers say. There are five things the West could do to up the ante on Moscow's economy, according to one think tank. But Russia has also gotten better at evading sanctions, researchers said, giving the economy an unexpected buffer. That suggests stronger price controls are needed for Russian oil, considering that crude is one of Moscow's main revenue sources. That means the West could enforce a full embargo on Russia's financial sector, researchers said, isolating Russia even further from the rest of the global economy.

Persons: crimp, Vladimir Putin's, Putin Organizations: Service, Atlantic Council, US, Justice Department, Kremlin Locations: Moscow, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine

☆ The housing market is about to take a hit as student loan payments restart
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The restart of student loan payments is about to hit the housing market. 58% of polled experts believe that the resumption of student loan payments could have a significant impact on mortgage affordability, according to a recent analysis conducted by Pulsenomics. Student loan payments will kick back in at a time when housing affordability is already strained. The effects of the student loan payment restart may be felt for years to come, too. AdvertisementAdvertisementStudent loan payments are set to resume on October 1, ending a three-year payment pause that began during the pandemic.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's Organizations: Service, Pulsenomics, Inside Mortgage Finance, US Department of Education, Education Data Initiative Locations: Wall, Silicon, delinquencies

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