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☆ World Bank Projects Weak Global Growth Amid Rising Interest Rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

According to the World Bank, 14 of 28 low-income countries are in debt distress or at a high risk of debt distress. The most vulnerable economies, the report warned, are facing greater risk of financial crises as a result of rising rates. Higher interest rates make it more expensive for developing countries to service their loan payments and, if their currencies depreciate, to import food. In addition to the risks posed by rising interest rates, the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine have combined to reverse decades of progress in global poverty reduction. The World Bank estimated on Tuesday that in 2024, incomes in the poorest countries would be 6 percent lower than in 2019.

Persons: Kose, — Organizations: World Bank Locations: United States, Europe, Ukraine

☆ Dollar bears bide their time as US economic strength persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Fund managers in the latest BofA Global Research survey named shorting the dollar as the market's third "most crowded" trade. The dollar is "in a very messy transition from bull market to a bear market," said Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager, currency, at State Street Global Advisors. Hurd expects the dollar to remain buoyant over the very short term, but decline steadily over the next few years. Most investors believe the dollar will likely remain elevated until U.S. data turns decidedly weaker, allowing the Fed to cut rates. "The dollar strength is entirely related to the fact that U.S. data is actually pretty good," said Alvise Marino, a strategist at Credit Suisse.

Persons: Aaron Hurd, Hurd, Alvise Marino, Bipan Rai, Christine Lagarde, Brian Rose, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Futures Trading Commission, Fund, Research, Street Global Advisors, Bears, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Credit Suisse, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, CIBC, UBS Global Wealth Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Europe

☆ GM to invest more than $1 billion to produce new heavy-duty pickups
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Michael Wayland | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

DETROIT – General Motors plans to invest more than $1 billion in two Michigan plants for production of next-generation heavy-duty trucks, the company said Monday. Another $233 million will be invested in the automaker's Flint Metal Center to support production of the vehicles. Despite GM's commitment to exclusively offer all-electric vehicles by 2035, the company continues to invest in traditional vehicles such as the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra heavy-duty pickups. In 2022, GM reported sales of its heavy-duty pickups increased by 38% compared to the prior year, amounting to nearly 288,000 trucks sold. For investors, UAW negotiations are typically a short-term headwind every four years that result in higher costs.

Persons: Mike Booth Organizations: General Motors, Flint Assembly, DETROIT –, Motors, Flint Metal Center, Chevrolet Silverado, GMC, GM, Detroit, United Auto Workers, UAW Locations: Flint, Flint , Michigan, DETROIT, Michigan, EVs

☆ Here's our first-quarter earnings report card for every stock in the portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +17 min

As a result, about 78% of S & P 500 companies reported better-than-expected earnings results, according to FactSet. Though sales came up short of expectations, earnings, operating margin, and return on capital all notched new record highs in a tough economy. We also saw strong sales of key drug Mounjaro along with positive updates for its potential as a weight loss medication. GE Healthcare (GEHC) reported solid results with its first-quarter earnings release as sales and earnings outpaced expectations. Despite the top-line miss, TJX Companies (TJX) delivered better-than-expected earnings as management demonstrated the ability to diligently control expenses.

Persons: Emerson, Eli Lilly, Strong, Humana, Johnson, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Wells, Estee Lauder, Locker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Hsun Huang, Patrick T Organizations: Club, Halliburton, HAL, Linde, LIN, Microsoft, Nvidia, Palo Alto Networks, billings, Procter & Gamble, Devices, Caterpillar, Costco, Coterra Energy, Management, GE Healthcare, Honeywell, Johnson, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Valley Bank . Disney, Natural Resources, Constellation Brands, TJX Companies, Bausch Health, Nike, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Nvidia Corp, Mobile, Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Washington, North America, United States, Wells, Macau, Asia, Los Angeles , California

There's a burgeoning bull case for Saudi Arabia stocks. The iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) is up more than 8% year to date and almost 20% over a three-year period. The MSCI Saudi Arabia Index is composed of almost 45% in financials, followed by 22.1% in materials, mostly consisting of petrochemicals groups. More foreign investment The kingdom's Vision 2030 economic blueprint aims to raise foreign direct investment contributions to 5.7% by 2030 from 0.7% currently . Another fund that does this is the Franklin FTSE Saudi Arabia ETF (FLSA) .

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Carlos Asilis, Ramzi Sidani, — it's, they've, It's, Andrew Miller, Miller, Glovista's, HSBC's Sidani, Mondrian, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Glovista Investments, JPMorgan —, HSBC's Global Research, Saudi, HSBC's Frontier Equity, United Arab Emirates, Mondrian Investment Partners, Franklin FTSE, Franklin FTSE Saudi Arabia, Aramco, Al, Al Rajhi Bank Locations: Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Russia, Ukraine, East, Korea, Australia, Chile, Poland, financials, Qatar, Franklin FTSE Saudi, Al Rajhi

☆ Aussie housing dip over, prices to rebound into next year on rate view
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Vivek Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary poll dataBENGALURU, June 1 (Reuters) - Australia's housing market outlook has improved significantly, with home prices expected to on average stagnate this year compared to the near double-digit fall predicted three months ago, according to a Reuters poll of housing analysts. They were then forecast to rise 4.5% in 2024, almost twice the expected rate from the previous poll. While ANZ and Westpac forecast no growth this year, CBA expected a 3.0% rise and NAB predicted a 4.0% decline in prices. "We are almost at the top of the RBA's hiking cycle, which means the headwind on property prices from rates ratcheting higher has largely run its course." (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Vivek Mishra; Polling by Sujith Pai and Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross FinleyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Adelaide Timbrell, Gareth Aird, Shane Oliver, Vivek Mishra, Sujith Pai, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley Organizations: Bank of Australia, ANZ, Westpac, CBA, NAB, Economics, AMP, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, New Zealand

☆ US mortgage rates climb to their highest level since November
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington CNN —US mortgage rates jumped higher last week as uncertainty about the debt ceiling standoff sent bond yields rising. Mortgage rates tend to be pegged to US Treasury yields, which had been heading higher as America grows ever closer to default. Although the Fed doesn’t have direct control over mortgage rates, higher interest rates tend to push bond yields higher, which also can nudge mortgage rates up. “If the U.S. defaults on its debt, bond investments become riskier, resulting in increased yields and potentially higher mortgage rates. But if mortgage rates remain elevated, sellers looking to wrap up a move during the summer months may be motivated to cut prices.

Persons: Freddie Mac, ”, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Jiayi Xu, Joe Biden, Xu, “, George Ratiu, ” Ratiu, Bob Broeksmit, today’s, ” Xu Organizations: Washington CNN, Treasury, Federal, “, Realtor.com, Mortgage, Association Locations: America, U.S

Analysts say the proposed debt ceiling deal could have only marginal effects on the US economy. "The impacts will be negative but small," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, told CNN. Here's what's in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy:What's in the deal? It would keep non-defense spending relatively flat in fiscal 2024 and then set a cap of 1% in spending increases for fiscal 2025. The debt deal and GDP.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco Organizations: Moody's, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: West Virginia

LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - A decline in labour growth and expected fall in the working age population will be a drag on emerging economies already suffering from fading growth prospects, BlackRock's Global Head of Emerging Markets Amer Bisat told Reuters. "Demographic used to be a tailwind in emerging markets. The golden age for emerging markets, which started at the turn of the century, had come to a swift end after the 2008 financial crisis, Bisat said. While the asset class remained "investable and interesting", the days of putting money to work in all emerging markets assets are over. Bisat also said BlackRock's emerging markets team was focused on building a research library, to include both better data and models on how to use and analyse it.

Persons: BlackRock's, Markets Amer Bisat, Bisat, Karen Leiton, Jorgelina, Rosario, Karin Strohecker, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Markets Amer, Reuters, Labor, Thomson Locations: Mexico, Brazil

LONDON, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. domestic banks reported a widespread tightening of lending standards by the end of the first quarter of 2023 - even before the full impact of the regional banking crisis had been felt. The net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to small businesses with annual sales below $50 million hit +47% at the end of the first quarter. The net percentage tightening small business C&I standards has risen to levels usually associated with recession, based on past results from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS). Banks are likely pre-empting a slowdown in the business cycle and increase in unemployment, widely expected since late 2022, which will increase defaults. As the price of credit increases and its availability becomes more restricted, the slowdown in small business and household spending will act as another headwind for the economy.

Persons: Banks, John Kemp, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Senior, Bank Lending, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S

☆ US home prices just jumped for the second-straight month, suggesting the housing downturn could be over. Here are the 6 cities where prices are rising the fastest.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the 20-city version of the index, all 20 of the cities saw home prices rise month-over-month. "That said, the challenges posed by current mortgage rates and the continuing possibility of economic weakness are likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months." "A shortage of listings, plentiful jobs, and strong wage growth are largely offsetting the headwind to housing from high mortgage rates," Adams told Insider. Their reasons include high mortgage rates, historically low affordability, and a potential recession. Below, we've listed in descending order the six cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city index that posted month-over-month growth of at least 2%.

Persons: Craig J, Lazzara, Bill Adams, Adams, Suisse's Ray Farris, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Ian Shepherdson, American Enterprise Institute's Desmond Lachman, Skylar Olsen Organizations: Home, NSA, Redfin, Comerica Bank, American Enterprise Locations: Denver, Detroit, San Francisco, San Diego, Seattle, Minneapolis, West Coast, Miami , Florida, Tampa , Florida, Charlotte, North Carolina

☆ Bitcoin is on track for its first monthly drop of the year, stalling 2023's huge rally as macro uncertainty builds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The European Central Bank is tightening as well to combat surging prices, with rates at levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. In addition, central bank tightening can also lead to a decline in bitcoin prices." "There's no doubt that bitcoin's price as well as wider crypto market movements are directly impacted by the US Federal Reserve and central bank policies. "We can therefore expect a continued disenfranchisement with the US dollar and uptake of bitcoin and other crypto assets. This will be reflected in price and we can surely expect upward price movements in bitcoin, even in 2023," Caselin told Insider.

Persons: Bitcoin, —, Tacking, Christine Lagarde, Birgham Santos, Santos, Ben Caselin, bitcoin, Caselin Organizations: Service, Traders, Federal, European Central Bank, Lama, US Federal Reserve Locations: solana, bitcoin

☆ Debt ceiling deal won’t have much impact on the US economy, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.

Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, ”, Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, “ Locations: Washington, West Virginia

☆ US home prices rose in March for the second month in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —US home prices rose slightly in March, showing a continuing recovery, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, released Tuesday. It’s the second month in a row that prices have increased, after an increase in February that snapped a seven-month streak of month-over-month declines. Home prices went up 0.7% in March from the year before, down from 2.1% in the previous month. “The farther west we look, the weaker prices are.”Miami continued to have the largest year-over-year price growth for the eighth consecutive month with a 7.7% increase. Still, “the housing market is likely to remain relatively tense until either home prices or mortgage rates fall enough to bring balance via both buyer and seller activity.”

☆ Oil ticks up as markets weigh U.S. debt deal, rate hike possibility
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The euphoria of the debt deal is wearing off as concern mounts for another rate hike by the Fed in June," brokerage Liquidity Energy LLC wrote in a note. U.S. President Joe Biden and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy over the weekend forged an agreement to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and cap government spending for the next two years. Still, analysts saw any boost in oil prices from it as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," IG Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. The dollar also nudged down on Monday as the debt ceiling deal lifted risk appetite in world markets and dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal.

☆ Oil dips as rate hike fears offset U.S. debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HOUSTON, May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday as worries over further interest rate hikes that could curb energy demand trumped a tentative U.S. debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's top oil consumer. "The euphoria of the debt deal is wearing off as concern mounts for another rate hike by the Fed in June," brokerage Liquidity Energy LLC wrote in a note. Still, analysts saw any boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived, with earlier gains in the session now lost. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," IG Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said. However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning towards leaving output unchanged.

☆ Oil steady after U.S. debt deal but rate hike worries linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, but concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. Analysts said the provisional deal has taken pressure off the markets, offering a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil. Still, analysts see any boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. The U.S. Federal Reserve may still raise interest rates in June, IG's Sydney-based analyst Tony Sycamore said: "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," he added. However, comments from Russian oil officials and sources, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, indicate the world's third-largest oil producer is leaning towards leaving output unchanged.

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowMay 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, although concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. Analysts said the provisional deal has taken pressure off the markets, offering a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil. Analysts see the boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," he added. Future oil output growth in the U.S., the world's biggest producer, also may slow as energy firms cut rigs for a fourth week.

☆ Oil rises after US leaders strike provisional debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowSINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, although concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. "The tentative debt deal offered a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil," said Tina Teng, a CMC Markets analyst. Analysts see the boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," he added. Future oil output growth in the U.S., the world's biggest producer, also may slow as energy firms cut rigs for a fourth week.

☆ Oil rises after U.S. leaders strike provisional debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices rose on Monday after U.S. leaders reached a tentative debt ceiling deal, possibly averting a default in the world's largest economy and oil consumer, although concerns about further interest rate hikes capped gains. "The tentative debt deal offered a relief rally in risk assets, including crude oil," said Tina Teng, a CMC Markets analyst. Analysts see the boost in oil prices from the debt deal as short-lived. "Higher U.S. rates are a headwind for crude oil demand," he added. Future oil output growth in the U.S., the world's biggest producer, also may slow as energy firms cut rigs for a fourth week.

☆ GOLDMAN SACHS: Buy these 16 stocks that growth funds are betting big on — and reaping the rewards in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs identified the tech stocks that mutual funds are betting big on right now. Diversified mutual funds aren't supposed to have more than 5% of their assets in any one stock. According to the Investment Company Act of 1940, diversified mutual funds aren't supposed to have more than 5% of their assets invested in any one company — otherwise, they aren't diversified. But that can be difficult when Big Tech stocks comprise such a large portion of indexes across the market. The following 16 tech stocks are overweights in the more-than 500 mutual funds that Goldman Sachs evaluates.

☆ It’s Not Just the Debt Ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

These include:The potential for economic drag from the more restrictive fiscal policy that House Republicans are demanding from President Biden as a prerequisite for an increase in the debt ceiling. Oddly, the debt ceiling crisis provided temporary relief for many of the nation’s banks, economists for Moody’s Investor Service found in a recent study. “The debt ceiling impasse has been a tailwind for the banks,” Jill Cetina, associate managing director for Moody’s, said in an interview. But once the debt ceiling is lifted and the Treasury begins to raise money by selling large quantities of bonds, those purchases by investors in the open market will drain money from banks. “This may not be what you would expect, but the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis will be a headwind for banks,” she said.

☆ China's latest Covid surge pressures 3 Club stocks, but doesn't change our conviction in each
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Investor concern has been spilling over into the Club holdings doing the most business in China: Wynn Resorts (WYNN), Estee Lauder (EL), and Starbucks (SBUX). That ultimately bodes well for Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Wynn, even if increasing consumer demand appeared somewhat uneven in the latest round of quarterly results. And we're expecting Estee Lauder's China business to recover as travel continues to accelerate. We remain optimistic about the growth trajectory in the country, and see this latest Covid wave as a temporary speedbump. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Estee Lauder, Wynn, Jim Cramer, Jim, Laxman Narasimhan, Beijing's, hasn't, Estee, Jim Cramer's, WYNN Organizations: Wynn Resorts, WYNN, Starbucks, Wynn, Management, CNBC, China News Service, Getty Locations: China, Shanghai, Beijing, Macao, Asia

☆ A portfolio manager who runs 3 of the 10 best large-cap funds in the past year shares his surprisingly simple investing strategy — and the 4 places he's putting his money now
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Leading fund manager Matt Fruhan found success this year by continuing to prioritize valuations. Two of those standout funds, the Fidelity Mega Cap Stock Fund (FGRTX) and the Fidelity Advisor Mega Cap Stock Fund (FGTAX), are virtually identical, except for their class and ticker. The fund manager told Insider that he applies the same investing process and principles across all of his funds. "Some investors are kind of reactive to the market and let the market tell them what to think," Fruhan said. And that's how you get separation from the stock market over time."

☆ Consumer spending is slowing, but these two Club retailers are well-positioned to ride out the storm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

First-quarter earnings results from retailers this season have shown softer discretionary spending to be the primary headwind facing companies across numerous retail categories. If consumer spending declines too precipitously, it could help tip the U.S. economy into recession. The wholesale retailer's monthly comparable-sales reports have shown Costco shoppers scaling back on discretionary items and prioritizing consumer staples. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Shoppers wait in a check-out line at a Costco wholesale store in Orlando, Florida.

Persons: Mary Dillon's, Jim Cramer, Jim, we're, HomeGoods —, TJX, Jim Cramer's, Paul Hennessy Organizations: TJX Companies, Costco Wholesale, Lowe's Companies, Target, Walmart, Club, Fed, Ross, Costco, BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, CNBC, Shoppers, Getty Locations: U.S, Orlando , Florida

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