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There is uncertainty abound about the future direction of the stock market heading into what many say is the most important presidential election of our lifetimes. In the elevated volatility levels that began in late September heading into the election. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX in black) trades with an inverse relationship to the S & P 500. As the S & P 500 goes lower, people become fearful as they buy put option protection pushing the general level of option prices (both puts and calls) higher. This creates the inverse relationship of VIX and S & P 500.
Persons: NVDA, we'll, we're, Todd Gordon, Gordon, Schwab Organizations: Nvidia, Google, Inside Edge, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: NVDA
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Big Tech earnings start today, with roughly $12 trillion in market cap reporting over three days. Mark Zuckerberg hasn't shied away from saying his company will keep spending big on AI, and the market hasn't minded. Judging by Meta Connect 2024 and its CTO's comments , the tech giant wants to own the market for AI-powered wearables.
Persons: , We'll, Insider's Kelly Cloonan, We're, Mark Zuckerberg hasn't, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Business, Service, Traders, Big Tech, Google, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, AWS, Apple, Apple Intelligence Locations: China, New York, London
Mortgage rates will remain above 6% throughout 2025, Goldman Sachs said. In the bank's 2025 Housing Outlook, the analysts forecast mortgage rates will remain elevated, even as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. They expect mortgage rates to stay above 6% next year and end 2025 at 6.1%. "Our strategists expect mortgage rates to remain elevated for the foreseeable future," the analysts, led by Jan Hatzius, said in a Monday note. AdvertisementThey pointed to a variety of technical factors, including lower rates volatility and a rebound in demand for mortgage-backed securities that will help close the gap between risk-free rates and mortgage rates.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Freddie Mac, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Analysts, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury
This is the first in a five-part series about the impact both Trump and Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each. Advertisement"Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.
Persons: Harris, , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Today's, they're, BofA, It's, Financials, Trump's, Trump, Peter Berezin, Joe Biden's, Bonds, Crypto, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Harris Harris, she's, I'm, Larry Fink, Biden, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Wall, Bank of America, Allies, Foundation, BCA Research, Harris, Democratic, Economics, Capital, Federal, Harris Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, bitcoin, BlackRock, Capital Economics, Fed Locations: China
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday suggested that home improvement retailer Home Depot acts as a secular and cyclical stock, able to both grow independently of the business cycle and flourish when the economy is doing well. "The company's secular characteristics carry it through the cyclical pain, so even if the Fed doesn't move with alacrity to cut rates, Home Depot will still win." Lower interest rates tend to improve the housing market, which normally bodes well for housing-related stocks like Home Depot. "Now you could argue that this is an unusual moment, but historically, it's actually not that unusual for Home Depot," he said. "There's a boom and bust portion of the business, but for most of that period since 1981, it kept growing regardless."
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, it's Organizations: Depot Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTeeter: It's important to stay the course here, even though there will be some volatilityRobert Teeter of Silvercrest Asset Management discusses the number of potential catalysts that could impact the markets in coming weeks, including the jobs report, the election, earnings, and the next Fed meeting.
Persons: Robert Teeter Organizations: Silvercrest, Management
Gold slips as dollar firms; market eyes crucial U.S. data
  + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A one kilogram gold bar sits on top of silver bars. Gold prices fell on Monday as the U.S. dollar held firm, while investors awaited U.S. economic data for fresh insights on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,733.01 per ounce, as of 0232 GMT. A stronger dollar makes gold less appealing for other currency holders. Gold hit a record high of $2,758.37 on Wednesday, driven by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties.
Persons: Tim Waterer, CME's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ali Khamenei, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: U.S ., Federal, U.S, KCM, Fed, Iranian Locations: U.S
The one big fear that could upend the bull market
  + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A chain reaction sparked by continued inflation could put the bull market to rest, according to Trivariate Research. As the bull market enters its third year, investors are wondering how much more room there is to run before a pullback is due. Now, Fed funds futures are pricing in a more than 95% likelihood of another drop to the borrowing costs at the central bank's November gathering, according to CME's FedWatch tool. In 2021 and 2022, Parker said there was a "strong and statistically significant relationship" between Fed funds futures and the price-to-earnings multiple on growth stocks. Though that connection now looks different, the Morgan Stanley alum said he would be "surprised if multiples did not compress meaningfully" if the expectation for the Fed funds rate rises from 3.5% to 5% or above.
Persons: Adam Parker, Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, Parker, Morgan Stanley, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Tudor Jones, Dow Jones Organizations: Research, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Dow
Ukraine is offering comfortable beds and warm meals to North Korea troops who surrender to them. AdvertisementUkraine is enticing Russia-bound North Korean troops with comfortable beds and warm meals in exchange for their surrender. AdvertisementOn Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an evening address on Telegram that North Korean troops "may appear on the battlefield" any day now. Related storiesRussia's use of North Korean troops is another indicator that it's relying more on allies to sustain its wartime efforts. But Ukraine's attempt to encourage North Korean troops to surrender faces distinct hurdles.
Persons: , Putin, chatbot, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Joseph S, Bermudez Jr, Kim, Bermudez, Bruce W, Bennett Organizations: Service, Korean People's Army, YouTube, North, Business Insider, Ukraine, Pyongyang that'll, Center for International, Strategic Studies, Workers ' Party of, RAND Locations: Ukraine, Korea, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, Europe, Pyongyang, Workers ' Party of Korea
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's no need for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy: Advisors Capital's JoAnne FeeneyJoAnne Feeney, Advisors Capital Management partner and portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, state of the economy, and more.
Persons: Capital's JoAnne Feeney JoAnne Feeney Organizations: Capital Management
The S & P 500 typically advances about 7% from November to April, compared to the index's average 2% rise from May to October, according to CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. This year's market strength follows a standout 20% gain for the S & P 500 in 2023's "best six months" period, he noted. "This double-dose of double-digit returns has caused investors to wonder if the market has used up its energy reserves and may be headed for tough times," Stovall wrote. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has advanced more than 22% in 2024. Stocks were bhigher on both Friday and Monday , with the S & P 500 trading within a hair's breath of this month's all-time high of 5864.67.
Persons: Sam Stovall, Russell, Stocks, Stovall Organizations: Stock Traders, Research, Investors Locations: U.S
Income investors have a lot riding on the outcome of next week's presidential election, according to RBC Global Asset Management. Positioning if Harris wins A win by Harris would be constructive for fixed-income, Skiba said. With money markets close to multi-year highs, there is a lot of money that investors can put to work, he noted. There is $6.51 trillion sitting in money market funds as of the week ended Oct. 23, according to the Investment Company Institute . "There actually might be a window of opportunity for fixed-income investors to reposition their portfolios without too much pain incurred in the process," Skiba said.
Persons: Andrzej Skiba, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Skiba, Harris Organizations: RBC Global Asset Management, Federal, Trump, Investors, Investment Company Institute Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA November Fed cut isn't necessary, says Former Dallas Fed President Richard FisherRichard Fisher, Former Dallas Fed President, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Fed's next moves, likelihood of a pause and the economy.
Persons: Richard Fisher Richard Fisher Organizations: Dallas Fed, Former Dallas Fed
In today's big story, the first of our five-part refresher series on the potential impact Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. Business Insider's Matthew Fox detailed how Wall Street sees former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris affecting the investment landscape if they win the White House. One of the biggest areas where Harris and Trump differ is their proposed tax policies, which are believed to have big impacts on stocks. AdvertisementTrump's universal tariffs proposal is also viewed as having a big impact. It's a big week for Apple.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Matthew Fox, Harris, Trump, it's, Alyssa Powell, Joe Biden, Steve Sosnick, Neil Dutta, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Rebecca Zisser, Elon Musk, James Yates, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Grace Lett, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Service, Getty, BI, White, Bank of America, Interactive Brokers, JPMorgan, Twitter, Elon, Apple, Apple Intelligence, iOS, Venture, Ford Motors, MLB, LA Dodgers, New York Yankees, Forbes Locations: It's, New York, London, Chicago
AdvertisementWe're not in a recessionTo determine whether the economy is in recession, it helps to first define the term. Sure, the yearlong payrolls were adjusted down, but the story has largely been the same: This is a cooling but not collapsing labor market. Despite the 50-basis-point interest-rate cut by Chairman Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed, there's evidence of additional slowing in the labor market. Since the rate cut, I've grown more confident that it will act in the face of weaker employment data. If the labor market deteriorates and the unemployment rate increases, we ought not to rule out another 50-basis-point move.
Persons: We're, , Jerome Powell, there's, Powell, Stocks Organizations: Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, Social Security, Conference Locations: America
The Street is looking for Stanley Black & Decker sales of $3.8 billion in the third quarter and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05. The Street is looking for Linde sales of $8.35 billion in the third quarter and EPS of $3.89. In addition to the headline results and forward guidance, overall organic sales growth and data center energy power demand will be focus items for investors. The Street is looking for sales of $94.47 billion in its fiscal fourth quarter and EPS of $1.55. The Street is looking for Coterra sales of $1.3 billion in the third quarter and EPS of 34 cents.
Persons: That's, It's, Stanley Black, Decker, we're, We're, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Amy Hood's, Brian Niccol, Wednesday's, Linde, it's, we'll, Phillips, Horton, Kraft Heinz, SIRI, Estee Lauder, BUD, Cardinal Health, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Stephanie Keith Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Fed, PCE, YouTube, Justice, AMD, GE Healthcare, Reality Labs, Microsoft, Management, Starbucks, U.S, Presidential, Linde, Apple Intelligence, Amazon, Services, Coterra Energy, WM, Cadence Design Systems, Labor, PayPal, BP, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Cruises, JetBlue, HSBC, Devices, Grill, Electronic Arts, EA, Gross, Caterpillar, Brinker International, AFortive Corporation, Illinois Tool, Coinbase, eBay, EBAY, Booking Holdings, MGM Resorts, MGM, Bausch Health, LIN, Merck, ConocoPhillips, Mastercard, Altria, Cruise, Myers Squibb, Comcast, Mobileye, Cheniere Energy, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Intel, United States Steel, Juniper Networks, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Dominion Energy, Charter Communications, LyondellBasell Industries, Cardinal, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Eaton, Corning, Illinois, Bristol, New York City
For all we know, the yield curve may simply be going through the birthing of an un-inverted yield curve. GOOGL YTD mountain Alphabet YTD Search used to be so simple. META YTD mountain Meta Platforms YTD Meta Platforms has run big ahead of the quarter. AMZN YTD mountain Amazon YTD Let's get to the two toughest of the week, Amazon and Apple. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: let's, Eli Lilly, nonfarm payrolls, Carl Quintanilla, batty, Jeff Marks, Waymo, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Department's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff, Trump, Warren Buffett, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Microsoft, Apple, Treasury, Federal Reserve, charlatans, Honeywell, Twitter, Club, Gemini, YouTube, Google, Donner Party of cannibalization, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, Merck, Pfizer, Tech Titans, Meta, Amazon Web Services Locations: Wall, cyclicals, California, Philly
Mike Huckabee's lawsuit over his bogus CBD gummies ads on Facebook is an exception. In May, Huckabee, a Baptist minister and staunch conservative, discovered his manipulated image had been used for months in Facebook ads for CBD gummies. A false Facebook ad, since taken down, in which former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee "endorses" CBD gummies. Mike Huckabee can't remember the precise moment in May when he realized his doppelganger was selling CBD gummies. Meta is due to file additional papers supporting its motion to dismiss the Huckabee lawsuit on Monday.
Persons: Mike Huckabee's, , Oprah Winfrey, Taylor Smith, Donald Trump, Tom Hanks shilled, Tom Hanks, Jennifer Aniston, Mike Huckabee, Huckabee, Meta, Eric Goldman, Scott Poynter, Andrew Forrest, Forrest's, P, Casey Pitts, Forrest, Poynter, Goldman, Anderson, Nylah Anderson, TikTok, Fortin, he'd Organizations: Facebook, Meta, Service, Arkansas Gov, Huckabee, Baptist, Communications, Business, Santa Clara University, Arkansas, Trinity Broadcasting Network, Fox, Trinity Broadcasting, BI Locations: Arkansas, American, Delaware, California, Pennsylvania
Election officials — and reporters like me — have spent years explaining that voter fraud is incredibly rare. We know that because voting systems are designed with checks and balances to make it pretty hard to cheat. Election officials will then check your information against government databases, which typically verify your identity and citizenship. Checking the countAfter the results are tallied, the state conducts a risk-limiting audit by physically counting randomly selected batches of ballots and hand-counting them. The state also runs all the ballot images through a computer program that tallies the results.
Persons: , you’ll, ERIC Organizations: Social, U.S . Postal Service, Georgia, Registration Locations: Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania
Mortgage rates for October 26, 2024, are hovering in the mid-6% range, according to Zillow data. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. High mortgage rates pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: they'll, you'll, they've, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Fed, Traders, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Mortgage, Association Locations: Chevron
And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.
Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells
The notice of claim was filed Thursday on behalf of Nyisha Ragsdale, the aunt of Jahmeik Modlin, who died on Oct. 14 in the Harlem neighborhood. His parents, Nytavia Ragsdale and Laron Modlin, have been charged with second-degree manslaughter and endangering the welfare of a child. A poster in memory of Jahmeik Modlin in New York City. The apartment where Jahmeik Modlin lived in New York. A march held in memory of Jahmeik Modlin.
Persons: Nyisha Ragsdale, Jahmeik Modlin, Jahmeik, Nytavia Ragsdale, Laron, , , ” Nyisha Ragsdale, Jahmiek Modlin, Stephanie Gendell, Gendell, Modlin, Jahmeik’s, Prosecutors, ” Modlin, Nyisha, Sanford Rubenstein, Rubenstein Organizations: Administration, Children’s Services, NBC, York, The, Defender Services, of, New York City Department of Investigation Locations: New York City, Harlem, New York, York, The New York, Modlin
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect the market to appreciate after the election, says Sand Hill’s Brenda VingielloBrenda Vingiello, Sand Hill Global Advisors CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Persons: Sand, Brenda Vingiello Brenda Vingiello Locations: Sand
With massive corporations including Alphabet , Meta , Apple , Microsoft and Amazon set to report earnings next week, CNBC's Jim Cramer on Friday urged investors to keep a level head. "Just please remember, the first move's been the wrong move almost half the time since this earnings season began. Monday starts off the week with earnings from Ford . Tuesday brings McDonald's earnings report, and Cramer said to expect "a full airing of the e-coli situation," but that it is too early to tell how much damage it will do to the fast food chain. The monster week for earnings will continue into Thursday, as both Apple and Amazon will report after the bell.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Chipotle, Brian Niccol's, Eli Lilly, Meta, Chevron's, Hess, Exxon doesn't Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Ford, Disease Control, Prevention, Royal, PayPal, Caterpillar, Meta, Merck, Bristol, Oil titans Chevron, Exxon, Chevron Locations: Gulf of Mexico, Myers
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for PRO subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. A bullish take on emerging markets and insight into an artificial intelligence company were also discussed. CEO Alan Trefler appeared on "Worldwide Exchange" to discuss outlook for the future of his business. Eyeing emerging markets for opportunity Alan McKnight of Regions Bank is bullish emerging markets, citing the outperformance since the Fed rate cut in September but said China is a key factor.
Persons: Katrina Dudley, Franklin Templeton, Dudley, Wells, Alan Trefler, Alan McKnight, McKnight, it's Organizations: PRO, Worldwide, Federal Reserve, Verizon, Mobile, Citi, Regions Bank Locations: China, India, Brazil
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