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☆ UK inflation surprises for all the wrong reasons
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Britain’s stubbornly high inflation is a major drag on its economy because it increases the cost of everyday goods and services, dampening consumption. At the same time, interest rate hikes to combat inflation make loans and mortgages more expensive, which further weighs on spending by businesses and consumers. “The indirect impact of energy prices on business costs means lower gas and electricity prices should eventually feed into lower core inflation. But strong wage growth is likely to keep services inflation high throughout this year,” he added. But it cautioned that high inflation is still a considerable risk to the UK economy.

Persons: Grant Fitzner, Britain’s, ” Paul Dales, Martin Beck, ” Organizations: London CNN —, National Statistics, Bank of England, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Capital Economics, IMF, Bank of England’s Locations: United Kingdom

☆ China holds lending rates steady; cautious on weak yuan, capital outflow risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Earlier in the day, China's one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.65% and its five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.30%. In a Reuters poll of 26 market watchers conducted last week, 23 predicted no change to the rates for this month. "Within monetary policy, symbolic measures such as a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut are more likely than policy rate cuts this year given the already wide U.S.-China interest rate differential and RMB depreciation pressure." The steady LPR fixings also came after the PBOC rolled over maturing medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans while keeping the interest rate unchanged last week. "This can probably be achieved without policy rate cuts, which we think the PBOC will try to avoid," they said.

☆ Premarket: Turkey's big economic gamble looks set to continue
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Mark Thompson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In an exclusive interview with CNN on Thursday, Erdogan promised to continue cutting interest rates to tackle soaring prices if he is re-elected on May 28, my colleague Olesya Dmitracova reports. “Please do follow me in the aftermath of the elections, and you will see that inflation will be going down along with interest rates,” Erdogan told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “I have a thesis that interest rates and inflation, they are directly correlated. As price hikes started to accelerate around the world in late 2021, Erdogan ordered Turkey’s central bank to slash interest rates. The weekly claims attributed to Massachusetts fell by 14,042 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, representing three-quarters of the decline of 18,605 claims.

☆ Quantitative tightening: What happens when $2 trillion is sucked out of the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“Quantitative tightening,” or QT, by top central banks will suck $2 trillion in liquidity out of the financial system over the next two years, according to a recent analysis by Fitch Ratings. Investors and banks calibrate their strategies to the amount of money in the financial system, he noted. Then, central banks started withdrawing liquidity from the financial system. Even worse, many banks have large holes on their balance sheets because central banks have simultaneously jacked up interest rates. While government debt levels have skyrocketed in recent years, the cost of servicing that debt has been tamped down by the willingness of central banks to buy large chunks of it.

☆ Turkey economy: Erdogan vows to keep cutting rates to bring inflation down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Olesya Dmitracova | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has promised to continue with his unorthodox policy of cutting interest rates to reduce sky-high inflation if he is re-elected on May 28. “I have a thesis that interest rates and inflation, they are directly correlated. The lower the interest rates, the lower the inflation will be,” Erdoğan told CNN. “In this country, the inflation rate will come down along with the interest rates, so that we will come to a point where people will be relieved. This is not an illusion.”Soaring pricesIn late 2021, as price rises started to accelerate around the world, Erdoğan ordered Turkey’s central bank to slash interest rates.

☆ There's a 'big differentiation' between the U.S. and UK markets, says property economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a 'big differentiation' between the U.S. and UK markets, says property economistKiran Raichura of Capital Economics discusses the outlook for commercial real estate.

Services inflation accelerated to 1.7% in April from 1.5% in March, the data showed, suggesting that rising labour costs may be starting to feed into broader consumer inflation. "Given stubborn food price pressures, we now expect underlying inflation to peak at 4.5% by mid-year," said Darren Tay, Japan economist at Capital Economics. "But the inflationary cycle is probably at its tail end - producer price inflation has fallen significantly over the past three months. Ueda has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until inflation is sustainably around 2% and accompanied by wage hikes. He has also said Japan's core consumer inflation will slow back below 2% toward the latter half of the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.

☆ Debt conundrum gives Italy weak hand in EU talks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

After inflation hit 40-year highs in the West last year, global rate-setters, including the European Central Bank, launched a dramatic series of interest rate hikes. Unless there is a sudden series of interest rate cuts, the cost of servicing Italy’s debt could stay well above 4% of GDP for years. To fight that, Meloni’s government will have to shrink the public deficit and bring Italy back to the healthy pre-pandemic habit of keeping a primary budgetary surplus excluding debt interest payments. As long as Italy’s debt is not spiralling out of control, markets won’t worry too much. Yet even if Meloni chooses a milder approach, Italy’s unresolved debt challenge risks giving her a weak negotiating hand in Brussels.

☆ Japanese yen likely to strengthen toward year-end, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapanese yen likely to strengthen toward year-end, research firm saysMarcel Thieliant of Capital Economics says one reason is that long-term interest rates in the United States are likely to fall a bit further.

☆ Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers barely kept up with inflation in April, as retail sales increased but fell short of expectations, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. Miscellaneous store retailers led gainers with a 2.4% increase, while online sales rose 1.2% and health and personal care retailers saw a 0.9% rise.

☆ European Union upgrades outlook for economy as energy prices retreat
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Yet Europe’s economic prospects have brightened in recent months, according to the European Commission. It now expects the EU economy to expand 1% this year, up from an estimate of 0.8% in February. But it reflects sharply lower energy prices, which are reducing costs for businesses and easing the strain on households. Even so, the Commission acknowledged that higher borrowing costs aimed at taming rising prices will weigh on growth in the months to come. Growth in Germany, the bloc’s biggest economy, is expected to slow sharply to 0.2% in 2023.

☆ Turkish lira sinks to new record low on possibility of Erdogan re-election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Turkish lira slipped 0.5% to trade at 19.70 against the US dollar, a record low. The uncertainty has investors in Turkish government bonds worrying about the country’s ability to pay them back. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters on May 14, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Annual consumer price inflation surged to 85% in October, before slowing to 44% in April, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows. “A victory for President Erdogan, which now looks like the base case scenario… would be negative for Turkey’s macroeconomic stability and financial markets,” Peach added.

☆ Canada housing market upturn could delay shift to BoC rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market's upturn comes after the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hiking campaign last month, leaving the benchmark rate at a 15-year high of 4.50% since January. A rebound in the housing market could boost activity and contribute directly to price pressures. "The Bank of Canada at the end of the day is probably not going to be too thrilled if the housing market really starts to ramp up," said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. In addition, variable-rate borrowers have been sheltered from higher interest rates after lenders temporarily extended the period over which their debt is amortized, keeping their payments the same. But there are also tailwinds to support a recovery, including supply shortfalls, record immigration and labor market strength, analysts said.

☆ Russian diamonds could soon be sanctioned — potentially disrupting the global jewelry market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The seven most advanced economies in the world, the G-7, are discussing imposing sanctions on Russian diamond exports — a complicated measure that could potentially hike prices for the luxury commodity. Russia's diamond exports have largely been spared from international sanctions following Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. In 2021, Russia raked in roughly $4.7 billion from diamond exports, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity. Diamonds are not commonly traded like oil or gold, but they represent a large market that goes beyond jewelry. Some countries — such as Belgium, which buys a significant amount of Russian diamonds — want a "global approach" to Russian exports, as opposed to an EU-specific measure, to ensure the sanctions do not disproportionately hurt them.

☆ UK economy grows by 0.1% in the first quarter but inflation continues to weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON — The U.K. economy grew by 0.1% in the first quarter, following an unexpected contraction in March, official figures showed on Friday. The construction sector expanded by 0.7%, while manufacturing performance went up by 0.5% in the first quarter, with 0.1% growth logged in services and production. The national statistics agency said there was no growth in real household expenditure, as incomes remained under the squeeze of higher prices. We still have inflation that is too high, growth is still not as high as we would like it to be, and when I talk to my fellow finance ministers we all talk about the same thing. Labor supply, productivity, how we are going to increase our long-term growth rates so that we can pay for the increasing number of things that tax payers want governments to do," Hunt continued.

☆ Thailand’s election could be a lose-lose scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 12 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Thailand’s elections on Sunday might return opposition parties to power for the first time since 2014, or alternatively deliver a stitched-up military-backed government. Assuming one of these opposition parties wins, it will need to control 376 seats out of the combined 500-seat House of Representatives and the 250-seat Senate to choose a prime minister. Pheu Thai claims it can lift annual economic growth to around 5% so long as is in power, which would be nearly double 2022’s low base. Higher incomes might ease Thailand’s household debt, which at 87% of GDP is the third-highest in Asia. HSBC analysts expect revenue at major Thai corporations to grow by only 2% next year – again, well behind neighbours – and Pheu Thai is mulling a 20% tax on private company profits, per a report in the Bangkok Post.

☆ Instant View: US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. I think the Fed will raise rates again in June and then pause. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing."

☆ US April CPI rise gives Fed little room for pivot soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Ahead of this reading Fed President John Williams warned that they were not done raising rates. "There will be another CPI report before the Fed meets, and expectations are you will start to see the effect of rents easing." The other thing is shelter, a huge component of CPI and it came in a little bit weaker."

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for April 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Where consumers saw prices fall in AprilConsumers saw average prices decline outright in April in certain categories. Housing — the largest component of the average household's budget — was the largest contributor to inflation in April, the BLS said. watch now"It looks like inflation in the [shelter] category has peaked," Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said. Overall, households are faring much better than they were months ago relative to inflation in staples like food, energy and housing, according to Zandi at Moody's Analytics. Why inflation surged to multi-decade highsConsumer prices began rising rapidly in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown.

Violent clashes between supporters of Imran Khan and police broke out across the country after Pakistan's anti-corruption agency arrested the former prime minister on Tuesday. Pakistan's rupee has lost nearly 50% over the past 12 months. JPMorgan analyst Milo Gunasinghe said little relief from political uncertainty was in sight while the IMF programme remained stalled. "It is usually up to the country to present a credible plan of policies and financing that, in the face of political uncertainty, will credibly address the members’ balance of payment problems." The armed forces remain Pakistan's most powerful institution, having ruled directly for close to half the country's 75-year history through three coups.

☆ Private-credit firms see opportunity as banks tighten lending
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Lisa Pauline Mattackal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

May 10 (Reuters) - Private-credit firms are eyeing fresh opportunities from a potential borrowing squeeze in the United States as battered regional banks tighten lending after the turmoil in the sector, according to fund managers and investment strategists. Such lenders see commercial and residential real estate as particularly attractive, given the prominence of regional banks in these sectors. Regional U.S. banks accounted for about 70% of outstanding loans to the commercial real estate (CRE) sector alone, according to Capital Economics. "Signature was one of the biggest providers of real estate lending in the New York area, commercial real estate is very vulnerable ... as a lender you want to be on the other side of that," Handa said. Many private credit funds have plenty of excess funds, or "dry powder" to invest, said Matt Malone, head of investment management at private investment management firm Opto Investments.

Economists in a Reuters poll had predicted no growth in imports and an 8.0% increase in exports. Other recent data also showed South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China's coal imports fell in April from a 15-month high in the prior month, snapping back as demand weakens in Asian giant. Imports of copper - a proxy for global growth - and natural gas were also down in the same period. "The global economy is deteriorating and will weaken China's manufacturing sector," said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING.

☆ China’s shrinking imports, slower exports growth darken economic outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Economists in a Reuters poll had predicted no growth in imports and an 8.0% increase in exports. Other recent data also showed South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China’s imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China’s coal imports fell in April from a 15-month high in the prior month, snapping back as demand weakens in Asian giant. Imports of copper, a proxy for global growth, and natural gas were also down in the same period. “The global economy is deteriorating and will weaken China’s manufacturing sector,” said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING.

☆ China's skidding factory sector taps brakes on economic recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector, a private survey showed on Thursday, imperilling the broader economic outlook for the second quarter. China Daily via REUTERSThe Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March. The latest PMIs may lower expectations for the economy in the second quarter, said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. “But to what extent the economic recovery momentum will weaken, the market is not sure,” Zhou said. “The manufacturing sector will be under pressure in the second quarter, and won’t get any relief at least until June.”

☆ POLL RBA to hike rates further this year, say economists in snap poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On May 2, the RBA startled economists and financial markets with a hike. Our expectation is that the final rate hike occurs in August. Over 85% of respondents, 25 of 29, expected no hike from the central bank at its June 6 meeting, while four predicted a 25 basis point hike. Among major local banks, only ANZ forecast a 25 basis point hike in Q3 while Westpac and CBA predicted an extended pause. Median forecasts showed the cash rate remaining at 4.10% until year-end, 25 basis points higher than the peak expected in an April poll.

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