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☆ Dollar beaten to over two-month low as Fed cut bets take charge
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China

☆ Dollar stumbles to over two-month low as markets eye Fed cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, while the Australian dollar similarly scaled a three-month top against the falling greenback. "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Against the weaker dollar, the euro rose to an over two-month high of $1.0924, ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due later this week. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar edged roughly 0.5% higher to $0.6546, its strongest level since August, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.52% to $0.60235. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1753 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1745 per dollar.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Carol Kong, Sterling, Vishnu Varathan, CBA's, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury, ., Mizuho Bank, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, China

☆ There's a new CD king after bank with prior highest yield just slashed it
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

There's a new top dog when it comes to yields on 1-year certificates of deposit, according to an analysis by Stephens. Bread Financial now has the highest annual percentage yield for 1-year CDs among banks in Stephens' coverage at 5.6%. However, the online bank didn't reach the top by raising its APY. Instead, it was because LendingClub slashed its 1-year CD yield by 10 basis points to 5.55%, analyst Vincent Caintic said. "Online banks had already been cutting 1yr CD rates and this may likely continue as near-term rate expectations fall," Caintic said.

Persons: Stephens, LendingClub, Vincent Caintic, Caintic, What's, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Bread, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, The Fed, Investors, Chicago Fed Locations: Stephens

☆ Dollar on the back foot as focus turns to Fed easing
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"(The) euro zone PMI surveys will be watched closely for further signs the region is on the cusp of, or already in, recession," said economists at Wells Fargo in a note. "In our view, the chances of at least a mild euro zone recession beginning in the latter part of 2023 are now becoming increasingly likely." Sterling slipped 0.06% to $1.24545, but was not far from a two-month high of $1.2506 hit last week. Ahead of China's loan prime rate decision later in the day, the offshore yuan firmed near a three-month high against the dollar and last stood at 7.2214 per dollar. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, fell 0.17% to $0.6504, while the New Zealand dollar slipped 0.04% to $0.5990.

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong Organizations: Federal Reserve, PMI, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand Locations: China, Asia, Beijing, Wells

☆ Stocks are entering the next leg of the bull market and the S&P 500 can hit a record-high of 5,000 by end of 2024, veteran strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 could be on track to notch a new record next year, according to market vet Phil Orlando. AdvertisementThe bull market in stocks has more room to run, and it could take the S&P 500 to a new high by the end of next year, one market veteran says. Orlando sees the S&P 500 surging to 5,000 by the end of 2024, representing an upside of around 10% from the benchmark index's current levels. Higher bond yields influence other interest rates in the economy, which have also helped tighten financial conditions. The S&P 500 has climbed 7% over the past month, trading around 4,535 on Monday.

Persons: Phil Orlando, —, Orlando, They've Organizations: Federated Hermes, Service, Bloomberg, Fed, Treasury

☆ US stocks rise to start short trading week as investors assess rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose on Monday as investors looked ahead at the Fed's next rate move. Investors are pricing in a nearly 30% chance the Fed could cut rates by March. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Monday as investors assessed the outlook for interest rates into 2024, kicking off the short trading week on a positive note. Traders have raised their expectations for the Fed to cut rates sometime early next year, thanks to inflation running at a below-expected 3.2% yearly pace in October.

Persons: —, David Morrison Organizations: Traders, Nvidia, Service, Fed, FCA, Here's, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ Gold ticks higher as dollar slips on Fed pause bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Brijesh Patel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,981.79 per ounce as of 0306 GMT, after rising 2.2% last week. The dollar slipped 0.2% to a more than a 2-1/2 month low against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Traders now widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at its Dec. 12-13 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower rates exert downward pressure on the dollar and bond yields, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.49% to 883.43 tonnes on Friday.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Kyle Rodda, Brijesh Patel, Chris Reese, Rashmi Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Traders, Holdings, SPDR, Trust, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, Bengaluru

Investors like dividend stocks for their yields, but the equities' returns have been pretty dismal so far this year. "That's what is putting pressure on these [dividend] stocks, or maybe just keeping them from lifting." IPDP YTD line Dividend Performers ETF (IPDP) performance year to date When it comes to specific stocks, Gilreath likes two under-the-radar plays: Brady Corporation and ABM Industries . Brady, which manufacturers identification and health-care products, has a 1.7% dividend yield. Diversification in light of recession risk When it comes to dividends, investors should look for quality rather than quantity.

Persons: That's, Bond, Andrew Graham, Dave Sheaff Gilreath, Gilreath, Morningstar . Brady, Capital's Graham, Graham, Dow, Laura Mattia, Morningstar, George Gagliardi, You'd, I'm Organizations: Investment, Jackson, Capital, Federal Reserve, Brady Corporation, ABM Industries, Dow Inc, Dow, LyondellBasell, Shell, Coromandel Wealth Management, U.S Locations: San Francisco, Indianapolis, Sarasota , Florida, Lexington , Massachusetts

☆ Markets are cheering the prospect of rate cuts next year, but it's a double-edged sword
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But that's a tricky situation for investors, as cuts would likely come in response to a slowing economy. Rate cuts aren't inherently bullish and signs emerging that the economy is slowing into year-end. AdvertisementMarkets are cheering the possibility the Federal Reserve could begin slashing interest rates next year, but rate cuts are a double-edged sword, Wall Street experts are warning, because of what the move would signal about the broader economy. But rate cuts may not be the decidedly bullish catalyst markets are hoping for. AdvertisementMarkets have been eyeing a Fed rate cut to trigger a bullish rally in stocks.

Persons: —, we've, Paul McCulley, Chris Grisanti, We're, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Reserve, Fed, CNBC, Mai Capital Management, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Atlanta Fed

☆ The shortened trading week features earnings from our best stock of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

After making three trades this week, we're heading into a shortened trading week. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD Shares of Nvidia closed Nov. 14 at a record high of $496.56 each. Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead, which also features a slew of earnings from brand-name retailers. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

Persons: FactSet, It's, Jim Cramer, NIU, Jack, JACK, Jim Cramer's, Jim, New York Stock Exchange Michael Nagle Organizations: Fed, TJX, Palo Alto Networks, PMI, ISM, Institute for Supply Management, Nvidia, Apple, Technologies, Video Communications, Agilent Technologies, Baidu, Abercrombie, Fitch, Burlington Stores, Eagle Outfitters, Dick's Sporting, Autodesk, HP, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, Deere & Company, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, China

Average 30-year mortgage rates are currently more than half of a percentage point lower than they started the month. This is great news for mortgage rates, since it means we'll likely see some substantial drops in 2024. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 6.76% this week, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Zillow, Investors Locations: Chevron

☆ Wall Street turns to Nvidia earnings in the week ahead as stocks try to keep their November momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.

Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, —, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan

☆ Yen eyes best week in four months, dollar heads for weekly decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen was on track for its best week against the dollar in four months on Friday on the prospect of a narrowing U.S.-Japan rate differential, with bets that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates leaving the greenback headed for a weekly loss. That's led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields alongside a fall in the dollar, which was on track to lose nearly 0.6% on the yen for the week, its worst weekly performance since July. Against the greenback, the euro and sterling were likewise eyeing a weekly jump of more than 1.5% each, while the dollar index was on track to lose 1.3%. The Japanese yen last stood at 150.72 per dollar, remaining on the weaker side of the 150 threshold and not far from Monday's one-year low of 151.92 per dollar. It's our house view that they don't touch policy settings for many, many months, so deep into next year," said Callow.

Persons: That's, Sean Callow, Callow Organizations: Federal, Fed, Treasury, CPI, Westpac, Bank of Japan, U.S, New Locations: Japan, U.S, United States, New Zealand

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Despite cool inflation, don’t expect rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Valerie Plesch| Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wholesale prices in October, as measured by the producer price index, fell 0.5% for the month against the expected 0.1% increase. And that, to put it mildly, "may be at least a tad optimistic," Cox wrote. Expectations of a rate cut forced down Treasury yields Tuesday (though they rose again yesterday).

Persons: Valerie Plesch, Jeff Cox, Cox, Quincy Krosby, Henry Allen, — Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Major, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal Reserve, Investors, Treasury, LPL, Deutsche Bank, Fed Locations: Washington , DC, Major U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Rate cuts might not be in the cards despite cooling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Valerie Plesch | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wholesale prices in October, as measured by the producer price index, fell 0.5% for the month against the expected 0.1% increase. And that, to put it mildly, "may be at least a tad optimistic," Cox wrote. Expectations of a rate cut forced down Treasury yields Tuesday (though they rose again yesterday).

☆ The Fed is probably done hiking rates. Cuts are still far off
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve likely won’t raise interest rates again during its current tightening cycle, thanks to a cooldown in inflation. Interest rates are at a 22-year high after the Fed last March began its punishing pace of hikes in a bid to tame wayward inflation. Traders are now virtually certain that the Fed will hold rates steady at its December policy meeting and won’t hike again this cycle, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Of course, one month’s data doth not a trend make. Traders are anticipating rate cuts won’t start before next March, and see May as more likely, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: ”, Jeffrey Roach, Price, Sharp, Jerome Powell, Yung, Yu Ma, Joseph Brusuelas, Sephora, Parija Kavilanz, Read, Rishi Sunak, Hanna Ziady, “, ” Sunak, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, “, LPL, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, Research, BMO Wealth Management, Traders, Investors, RSM US, CNN, National Statistics Locations: New York

☆ Gold eases as firm dollar counters bets on peak US rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Anushree Ashish Mukherjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,961.10 . Denting bullion's appeal, the dollar index (.DXY) was up 0.4%, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rebounded after a revision of retail sales data showed strong gains in September. Bullion gained over 1% in the previous session after data showed that U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October. U.S. producer prices fell by the most in 3-1/2 years in October, the latest indication of subsiding inflation pressures. While gold is considered an inflation hedge, rising interest rates dull non-yielding bullion's appeal.

Persons: Bullion, David Meger, Tai Wong, Anushree Mhukerjee, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Companies, U.S . Federal, Treasury, CPI, PPI, High, Investors, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

Inflation cooled in October, which is a sign that mortgage borrowers may soon be able to take advantage of significantly lower mortgage rates. Average 30-year mortgage rates are currently down around 20 basis points from where they started the month, and they could fall further soon. Plus, mortgage rates could fall more substantially next year if the Fed decides to cut rates, which is starting to look more likely. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

Persons: Fannie Mae Organizations: of Labor Statistics, CPI, Federal Reserve, Fed, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky, ARM Locations: Chevron

☆ Dow jumps 489 points and bond yields plunge as CPI report suggests 'inflation fever has broken'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks saw an impressive rally as the latest CPI data surprised investors with an inflation slowdown. Bond yields dropped dramatically, with the 10-year rate plummeting over 19 basis points. AdvertisementUS stocks shot up on Tuesday, as markets rallied around October's Consumer Price Index report, which surprised investors with softer-than-predicted inflation data. Since the CPI report, market expectations of rate hike in December dropped from 14% to 0%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementAccording to October's report, prices remained flat on a monthly basis, despite expectations of a 0.1% rise.

Persons: Bond, —, That's, Bill Adams, Jamie Cox Organizations: Service, October's, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Comerica Bank, Treasury, Harris Financial, Here's Locations: United States

☆ The Fed's next move will be to cut rates as the drop in inflation was a 'gamechanger,' former PIMCO chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's next rate move will be to cut rates, former PIMCO chief economist Paul McCulley said. Some forecasters say the Fed will slash interest rates by nearly three percentage points next year. Most significant is the "crack" in shelter inflation, McCulley said, which rose 6.7% year-over-year in October. AdvertisementInvestors will debate over when the Fed will cut rates, he added, though most are expecting the first rate cut to happen sometime next year. Some economists, though, have cautioned that the Fed risks easing interest rates prematurely, which could eventually lead to a resurgence in inflation down the line.

Persons: Paul McCulley, McCulley, —, That's, we've, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, CNBC, UBS, Fed

☆ Stocks ripped higher Tuesday on new inflation data. Here's why we were sellers
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Stocks rallied hard on Tuesday after new inflation data signaled a possible end to the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking campaign. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly 500 points after the closely watched consumer price index (CPI) reading for October came in flat, softer than economists' estimate of 0.1% growth month over month. Wall Street took the news as a sign that inflation was coming down enough for the central bank to stop raising interest rates. Barring a surprise rebound in inflation, rates seem to have peaked and the "soft landing" for the economy is still in play. We like to buy stocks when the market is oversold, and sell stocks when there is too much buying.

Persons: Stocks, It's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Wall, CPI, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Xinhua News Agency, Getty Locations: Foster City , California, United States

Average 30-year mortgage rates reached 23-year highs in October, but they dropped last week and are at their lowest in over a month. This is good news for mortgage rates — although the federal funds rate doesn't directly impact mortgage rates, the general rule of thumb is that when the Fed's rate goes up, so do mortgage rates. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.81% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically in 2022 and have been volatile so far in 2023, but they're expected to trend down later this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, you'll, Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ Dollar steady against euro, yen on intervention watch as it hits one-week low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Traders also remained on alert for potential intervention in the Japanese currency as it rose above the 151 level against the dollar, its weakest level in a week. “The dollar is vulnerable to weaker data going forward," said Shaun Osborne, chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. "We’re transitioning to a sort of sell dollar rallies environment, after the buy dollar dips trend that we’ve seen really since the middle of the year." The dollar gained 0.41% to 151.03 Japanese yen , heading back towards levels that have investors on watch for currency intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Shaun Osborne, ”, Osborne, Jerome Powell, Powell, Nick Bennenbroek, Francesco Pesole, Karen Brettell, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Scotiabank, U.S, ING, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Toronto

☆ Dollar rises for third day before Fed Chair Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"The data side has been very quiet so the main drivers have been the hawkish comments from Fed speakers," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole. Focus now turns to remarks from Fed Chair Powell later on Wednesday. DARKENING GROWTH OUTLOOKThe euro fell 0.3% to $1.0670, further weighed by a darkening growth outlook in the euro zone. "The mixed outlook for consumer and investment spending leaves the euro zone very close to recession," said Wells Fargo economist Nick Bennenbroek. "Regardless of whether the euro zone falls into recession, we see enough growth headwinds to suggest that the European Central Bank's monetary tightening is done."

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Francesco Pesole, They've, Powell, Matt Simpson, Wells, Nick Bennenbroek, ING's Pesole, Luci Ellis, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Lincoln, Christina Fincher, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Reserve, U.S, ING, Central, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson

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