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☆ What a hot job market means for inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —The US job market is still piping hot. That comes after the Federal Reserve last month cut interest rates by a jumbo half-point, signaling that it is turning its attention from tamping down inflation to keeping the job market steady. But some warn that a still-strong labor market could make it more difficult for inflation to continue cooling. That’s because a low unemployment rate and hot job market underline a strong American consumer, whose spending helps drive up the cost of goods and services. Consumer inflation eased to its slowest annual pace since February 2021 in August, continuing a trend of cooling down in recent months.

Persons: FactSet, ”, Seema Shah, “, Gina Bolvin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Investors, “, Fed, Asset Management, Labor Statistics, Bolvin Wealth Management Group, International Longshoremen’s Association, United States Maritime Alliance Locations: New York, July’s, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine

Since the Fed will likely be able to take a slower approach to lowering rates, mortgage rates are unlikely to go down further this year. Current 30-Year Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year mortgage rates are around 6%, according to Zillow data. In September, 30-year refinance rates averaged 5.89%, while 15-year refinance rates were around 5.19%. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. Now that the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates may not drop much in October.

Persons: they're, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, they've Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, Zillow, Fed Locations: U.S, Chevron

☆ Inflation, earnings and AI are the three market drivers we're watching this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Friday's rally on a strong jobs report gained momentum into the close and pushed the stock market into the green for the week. Inflation data: The September consumer price index (CPI) report is out Thursday. The September producer price index (PPI) is out Friday. Jim said last week that investors who don't own AMD shares should buy some ahead of CEO Lisa Su's presentation. ET: Consumer price index 12 p.m.

Persons: we'll, Jim Cramer, Friday's, Matthew Graham, Israel, Joe Biden, Wells, Jim, we're, We're, Morgan Stanley, Lisa Su's, Su, Jim Cramer's, Michael M Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Mortgage News, Mortgage News Daily, CNBC, Devices, PPI, Bank, Nvidia, SOXX Semiconductor, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, DAL, JPMorgan, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, New York City

☆ As forex markets await political shocks, one tipping point could lead to a 'catastrophic trade' that unwinds markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The yen carry trade unwind in August led to a temporary market pullback and recovery. AdvertisementThe foreign exchange market has been eerily quiet since the yen carry trade unwind. Much of the moves from the yen carry unwinding witnessed in August happened at this layer, Barrett said. But what we've seen in the yen carry trade is only the beginning, Barrett said. "Now, you may not think that's a yen carry trade, but it's absolutely the purest yen carry trade because all of that pension fund money started off as yen," Barrett said.

Persons: —, David Barrett, allocators, unwinding, Barrett, It's, it's, Harris, David, Trump Organizations: Service, EBC Financial, Bank of, Bloomberg, Big Tech, Nvidia Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan

☆ Israel's strike back at Iran could hurt the Harris campaign in its final stretch if gas prices soar
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( Brent D. Griffiths | Chris Panella | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

The move could drive oil prices up further, creating a headache for Harris' campaign. If Israel did strike Iran's oil, it would likely have two main targets. Then, on Thursday, he said the US and Israel were discussing whether the US would support Israel striking Iran's oil facilities. Biden has indicated there are conversations between the US and Israel about whether Iran's oil facilities are a legitimate retaliatory strike option. Back in September, global oil prices fell to the lowest level in almost three years, and the US has seen a historic year of oil production.

Persons: Israel, Harris, —, Kamala Harris, Patrick De Haan, De Haan, Clay Seigle, Siegle, ATTA KENARE, Kit Haines, Haines, Hassan Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyeh, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Netanyahu, Wisam, Seigle, Joe Biden, backtrack, Michael M, Nicholas Carl, there's, Privately, JIM WATSON Organizations: Service, Incumbents, Getty, Analysts, Energy, Wednesday, National Iranian Tanker Company, American Enterprise, Business, Publicly Locations: Iran, Israel, Ukraine, Tehran, Yemen, AFP, Hormuz, Saudi, Anadolu, Russia

☆ How to trade the jump in oil and energy stocks using options
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Crude oil is nearly $10 higher since October officially kicked off. I want to use the 2024 lagging Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) as way to express my short-term bullish view on the price of oil. XLE YTD mountain Energy Select Sector SPDR, YTD Oil markets are measuring the possibility of an imminent air strike by Israel on Iran's crude and energy facilities. However, I believe that would not be the main driver to push crude higher short-term, in would be the fearful reaction of this war spreading outside the Middle East region. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.

Organizations: Traders, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Israel, East, XLE

☆ Short ideas: Here are the stocks JPMorgan is betting against in the fourth quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Despite the major indexes trading near their all-time highs, there are still plenty of stocks that JPMorgan is bearish on in the coming quarter. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan surveyed its analysts for their top short ideas, or stocks that might underperform going into the fourth quarter. Shares have risen 9% in 2024, leading to what JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut believes is an expensive valuation. JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Goldman also has an underweight rating on Beyond Meat . "Plant-based meat continues to struggle as the fad fades," the analyst wrote.

Persons: Stocks, Stanley Black, Decker, Michael Rehaut, Kenneth Goldman, Stephen Tusa, Mark Strouse Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Traders, Rockwell Automation, ROK, FuelCell Energy Locations: —, underinvestment

☆ ‘Fed not done cutting’ after stronger-than-expected jobs report, Fedwatch Advisors’ Ben Emons says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email‘Fed not done cutting’ after stronger-than-expected jobs report, Fedwatch Advisors’ Ben Emons saysBen Emons, FedWatch Advisors chief investment officer & founder, joins 'Fast Money' with the traders to discuss the markets post jobs report.

Persons: ’ Ben Emons, Ben Emons Organizations: FedWatch Advisors

☆ Watch Friday's full episode of Fast Money — October 4, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Friday's full episode of Fast Money — October 4, 2024"Fast Money" is America's post-market show. Hosted by Melissa Lee and a roundtable of top traders, "Fast Money" breaks through the noise of the day, to bring you the actionable news that matters most to investors.

Persons: Melissa Lee

☆ Bitcoin is flipping in and out of 'bear' mode but could still reach $100,000 this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin investors are grappling with a demand dearth that has pushed the cryptocurrency into bear market territory at times. (In the first quarter, bitcoin ETFs bought about 9,000 BTC daily on average, following their January launch.) In the fourth quarters of 2012, 2016, and 2020 — the previous Bitcoin halving years — bitcoin prices rose by 9%, 59%, and 171%, respectively. The most recent halving — the supply cutting event that takes place every four years — happened this April. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin (BTC) year-to-date Bitcoin is set up well for the final quarter , but it's still working through a supply overhang from the U.S. and German governments as well as Mt.

Persons: It's, John Todaro, Needham, uptrend, it's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Owen Lau, Oppenheimer Organizations: CNBC, BTC, Federal Reserve, U.S Locations: China, U.S

☆ Watch Friday's full episode of Mad Money with Jim Cramer — October 4, 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch Friday's full episode of Mad Money with Jim Cramer — October 4, 2024"Mad Money" host and former hedge fund manager, Jim Cramer, provides stock traders with all manner of investing advice.

Persons: Jim Cramer —, Jim Cramer

☆ Why oil prices haven't skyrocketed on Middle East supply fears — yet
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Iran, which is a member of OPEC, is a major player in the global oil market. It's estimated that as much as 4% of global supply could be at risk if Israel targets Iran's oil facilities. For some analysts, the reason crude prices have yet to move even higher is because the oil market is short. watch nowTamas Varga, an analyst at oil broker PVM, told CNBC via email on Thursday that the oil market was pricing in some risk premium given the geopolitical concerns. These fears, however, will be greatly alleviated in [the] coming days unless oil supply from the region or traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are materially impacted," he added.

Persons: Fatemeh, Goldman Sachs, SEB, Jeff Currie, Carlyle, CNBC's, it's, Currie, we've, Amrita Sen, We've, Sen, Joe Biden, Biden, Tamas Varga, " Varga, Benjamin Netanyahu, Masoud Pezeshkian Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Energy, OPEC, Brent, U.S, West Texas, CNBC, White House, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Persian, Nurphoto Locations: Isfahan Refinery, Iran, Isfahan, Israel, Swedish, backwardation, bearishness, U.S, Hormuz, Oman, Tehran, Qatar, Persian, Bushehr, Bushehr province

☆ Have we passed peak obesity?
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHave we passed peak obesity? Jared Holz, Mizuho, joins 'Fast Money' with the traders to discuss the whether the trendsin obesity drugs is losing steam.

Persons: Jared Holz Locations: Mizuho

☆ Interpreting the jobs data: No more half-point rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, nearly 100,000 more than economists expected. The unemployment rate, which was expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%. Wages also rose more than expected month over month. To be sure, the new data also has traders pricing a smaller quarter percentage point interest rate reduction at the central bank's November meeting. "Fed cuts should be slower and I continue to think (and the data supports it) that the current neutral rate is well above 3% (economy chugging along on 5% yields for over a year)," said Tchir.

Persons: Sonu Varghese, Glen Smith, Lindsay Rosner, Ian Lyngen, Peter Tchir Organizations: Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Carson Group, GDS Wealth, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, BMO Capital Markets, Academy Securities Locations: U.S

☆ The best geopolitical hedges from gold to oil and even stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Sean Conlon | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For those looking to hedge against geopolitical risk, stocks are actually a pretty good way to do so, along with oil and gold. Bank of America looked at the best performers in the three and six months after major geopolitical events, including the Iraq War and Russia's invasion of Ukraine . The investment bank found that oil has historically been the best performer in the three months following major geopolitical events, generating a median return of 8.3%. On the other hand, gold is the best geopolitical hedge in the six months after such episodes. "[B]ad geopolitical events have not been bearish for risk assets in recent years, arguably the opposite," analyst Michael Hartnett wrote in a Thursday note.

Persons: –, They've, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Locations: Iraq, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, Taiwan

☆ Banerji: Buckle up for today's jobs report.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBanerji: Buckle up for today's jobs report. Gunjan Banerji, Lead Writer for Markets Live at The Wall Street Journal, notes that the market is steady but expects volatility from the upcoming jobs report, with traders anticipating a 1% move in the S&P 500 and 1.9% in the Russell 2000.

Persons: Buckle, Gunjan, Russell Organizations: Wall Street

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks can’t defy October’s gravity
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] How to play the jobs report The U.S. jobs report for September, coming out later today, will indicate if the economy will be able to achieve a soft landing or is headed toward a recession. Analysts at JPMorgan break down how the S&P 500 could react , depending on the number of jobs added for September. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.

Persons: AI's, Nvidia's, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, –, Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Port, U.S, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City, U.S, East, Gulf Coast

☆ European markets poised for higher open; U.S. jobs report in view
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

A TV presenter gets ready for the daily reporting from the floor of the German share price index DAX at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, November 15, 2023. LONDON — European stocks were poised for a higher open Friday as traders continue to monitor the escalating conflict in the Middle East and look ahead to the latest U.S. jobs report. The FTSE 100 was seen opening up 7 points at 8,281, Germany's DAX 38 points higher at 19,029, France's CAC up 23 points at 7,489 and Italy's FTSE MIB 100 points higher at 32,171, according to IG data. It comes after the Stoxx 600 shed 1% Thursday as geopolitical tensions have contributed to a shaky start to October. Investors are looking ahead Friday to the September's payrolls report, with U.S. futures little changed overnight.

Persons: DAX, Germany's DAX Organizations: LONDON, France's CAC, Investors Locations: Frankfurt, Germany

☆ U.S. crude oil has risen nearly 9% this week as traders fear Middle East supply disruption
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Just how high prices would go depends on whether OPEC uses its spare oil capacity to plug the gap, Struyven said. Here are today's energy prices:Though oil prices have surged this week on geopolitical tensions, they have risen from a low baseline. "The risk to the oil price outlook are definitely significant," Struyven told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Friday. The oil market had largely ignored the escalating war in the Middle East until Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The risk premium has been modest because there haven't been sustained supply disruptions over the past two years despite high geopolitical tensions, Struyven said.

Persons: Joe Biden, Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs, Struyven, CNBC's, Brent, haven't Organizations: OPEC Locations: Israel, Israeli, China, East, Iran

☆ Stock market next week: Investors wonder what's to come after tumultuous October start
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks struggled this week as rising tensions in the Middle East set off the strongest rally in oil prices since March 2023. "The stock market has been living up to October's reputation of increased volatility," said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. Inflation report, Fed minutes on deck In the week ahead, investors will keep an eye on a couple of potential catalysts. On Wednesday, investors will parse minutes from September's central bank gathering for insights into the future path of monetary policy. "I would say the inflation report is probably less important than it used to be," Dickson said.

Persons: Stocks, Glen Smith, Said, Mike Dickson, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Investment's Dickson, It's, Dickson, Wells, John Williams, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, GDS Wealth Management, Federal, Horizon Investments, CNBC Pro, Independent, Alliance, PepsiCo, Delta, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCO, New York Fed, PPI, University of Michigan, BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JPMorgan Locations: White, Wells Fargo, Fastenal, Wells

☆ CNBC Daily Open: October’s gravity bringing stocks down
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But gravity is catching up with stocks in October, which tends to be a volatile month. If the number of jobs added comes in higher than expected, markets are likely to react well. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.

Persons: Michael M, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, –, Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City

☆ Oil prices could surge 161% if Middle East conflict wipes out Iran's energy infrastructure, commodity chief says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Oil prices could surge past $200 a barrel if Iran's oil installations are taken offline, a chief commodities expert said. AdvertisementOil prices could roar past $200 a barrel if escalating tensions in the Middle East decimate Iran's crude output, a chief commodities analyst told CNBC. In the $200 per barrel scenario, Brent crude, the international benchmark, would gain 161% from its current price. Still, some investors are betting on the possibility of damaged oil output, Bloomberg reports. These restrictions were introduced to prop up oil prices, but have cost the alliance market share.

Persons: —, SEB's Bjarne Schieldrop, Schieldrop, Brent, Bob McNally, haven't Organizations: Service, CNBC, Traders, Bloomberg Locations: Iran, Hormuz, Israel, Lebanon, Libya, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Riyadh

☆ Stock futures are little changed as Wall Street awaits September jobs report: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were flat on Thursday night as traders looked ahead to the widely anticipated release of September's jobs report on Friday morning. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were also unchanged. These moves came after the major averages ended Thursday's trading session with losses. U.S. oil futures climbed about 5% Thursday, weighing on the major averages. Indeed, all three major averages are already on pace for weekly losses.

Persons: Dow Jones, Barbara Doran, I'd, it's, Doran Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow, BD8 Capital Partners Locations: New York City . U.S, U.S, East, Iran, Israel

☆ Gold rangebound as investors brace for key U.S. economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll data expected on Friday. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil. Elsewhere, Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month high in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high.

Persons: Brian Lan, —, CME's, Lan Organizations: GoldSilver Central, Investors, U.S . Locations: Singapore, Israel, Beirut, Iran, Perth

☆ Stock market today: Indexes fall, oil surges on Middle East turmoil ahead of jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, —, Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran

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